Thursday, March 1, 2012

Next Leg Of The Ponzi Revealed - Foreign Central Banks To Begin Buying US Stocks Outright Starting Today

We were speechless when we read this from Bloomberg...




Photo Of Pipeline Fire And Map Of Awamiya Region

Another update from Arab Digest.
 





 

 

 

 

 

WTI Passes $110

Update 1: WTI touches $110.55 before retracing to just under $110.
Stops triggered following WTI crossing $110. SPR announcement due any minute? Also, we give a CME margin hike a probability of about 60% at this point.

 

Saudi Oil Pipelines Destroyed In Explosion, Sends Crude Soaring


Among the many factors responsible for the jump in WTI to just shy of $109 over the past hour, and Brent to new records in various currencies, is the following news reported so far only by Iranian PressTV: "An explosion has hit oil pipelines in the flashpoint Saudi Arabian city of Awamiyah in the kingdom’s oil-rich Eastern Province." And now back to your regularly scheduled deflation.


 

Credit System Subverted – Implosion Imminent With Trillion Euro Gamble


On Wednesday, the second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO), sponsored by Mario Draghi’s European Central Bank, lent out a staggering €529 billion to faltering banks, which could put up almost any collateral to get these short term life rafts. Nearly 800 commercial banks took advantage of the ECB’s half trillion euro currency blast—taking the grand total of the European Central Bank’s LTRO program to over a trillion euros.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph quotes a few congratulatory bakers and academics, who make it seem as if Draghi’s central bank just saved the credit system and the entire universe:
Read More @ GoldSilver.com





EUR Brent Takes Out All Time Highs


The market has decided not to wait for the ruinous aftermath of Stanley Fischer's plan to print money and buy stocks to come to fruition. It is, in fact, frontrunning it by buying that which can not be printed, and is completely oblivious of such anachronisms as cash flows or dividends that will soon be thoroughly debased. EUR Brent just took out all time highs. European inflation to follow.




Mario Draghi Is Becoming Germany's Most Hated Man

Back in September, before the transition from then ECB head J.C. Trichet to current Goldman plant and uber printer Mario Draghi we asked whether "Trichet disgrace his already discredited central banker career by pushing a rate cut before he is swept out of the corner office by Mario Draghi, or will the former Goldmanite Italian become the most hated man in Germany soon, after he proceeds to ease, even as Germany still experiences Chinese inflationary re-exports. The answer will be all too clear in just a few months." Sure enough, following a whopping €1 trillion in incremental liquidity released by the ECB in the three shorts months since Draghi's ascension on November 1, all under the guise that the ECB is not printing when it most certainly is, albeit "hidden" by the idiotic claim that it accepts collateral for said printing (what collateral - Italian and Spanish bonds, which will become worthless the second even more printing is required in a few short months? This is run time collateral that can be issued "just in time" to convert it to even more cash as UniCredit did again today), the answer is becoming clear. Slowly but surely the realizing is dawning on Germany that while it was sleeping, perfectly confused by lies spoken in a soothing Italian accent that the ECB will not print, not only did Draghi reflate the ECB's balance sheet by an unprecedented amount in a very short time, in the process sending Brent in Euros to all time highs (wink, wink, inflation, as today's European CPI confirmed coming in at 2.7% or higher than estimated) but in the process putting the BUBA in jeopardy with nearly half a trillion in Eurosystem"receivables" which it will most likely never collect.




Pictures From A French Mob - Watch As Sarkozy Bravely Retreats From Furious Frenchmen

Despite groundless media reports that French president Sarkozy, who is up for reelection in April, is gaining on his challenger Hollande who has promised to undo virtually all the European fiscal pacts attained through blood, sweat, tears and countless contradictory headlines (more here), it seems that Sarkozys' appreciation by his fellow citizens has hit rock bottom. As AP reports, "Several hundred angry protesters have booed President Nicolas Sarkozy, forcing him to take refuge in a cafe protected by riot police as he campaigned in France's southwest Basque country." It appears that the European discontent is finally seeping rather aggressively into the core, and the political overhaul which many assume will take the Greek model of bloodless technocratic coups by banker appointed puppets may just not work too well elsewhere. In other news, the French now surrender to the French.





Caesar Bryan: Yesterday’s Gold Selling Raises Serious Red Flags

Today 25 year veteran Gabelli Gold Fund manager, Caesar Bryan, told King World News that yesterday’s selling in the gold market raises some serious red flags. Gabelli & Company has over $31 billion under management and Caesar Bryan has managed the gold fund since its inception in 1994. Caesar also said the activity was very suspicious because the selling was not designed to maximize revenue. Here is what Bryan had to say about the situation: “What we saw yesterday in the gold market was very large volume just pounding the market lower and it raises the question, is this a seller who is trying to maximize his revenues? The answer is, maybe not because it was very sudden and the volume appeared to be very large.”
Caesar Bryan continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com




Corporate Media Officially Stops Covering Paul Campaign

Only one news organization has an “embed” reporter covering Paul full time
by Steve Watson, InfoWars.com

GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul and his supporters have long complained that the establishment media deliberately operates a blackout when it comes to Paul’s campaign, a claim that has been verified time and time again.
Now yet more evidence has emerged that highlights the level to which the media is purposefully sidelining the Libertarian Congressman.
As Dylan Byers of Politico reports, NBC News is the only media organization that still has a reporter covering Ron Paul full-time.
With only four candidates remaining in the race for the GOP nomination, with Super Tuesday looming, and with the Republican national convention just six months away, you would think that mainstream media organizations would have dispatched at least one reporter to cover each of the candidates campaigns.
Read More @ InfoWars.com





A Single Seller Drove Gold Down as Bernanke Testified

“Large Seller in the Market” as COMEX Gold Hits $1,708
[Ed. Note: Related.]
from GoldAlert.com:

COMEX gold futures continued to tumble in late morning trading, with the April contract plummeting as much as $80.00, or 4.5%, to $1,708.40 per ounce.
The decline coincided with a rally in the U.S. dollar after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress showed that the central bank is not close to embarking on further monetary easing.
Today’s drop in gold futures marked the yellow metal’s worst day since September 23, 2011 – when it tumbled 4.7%.
Commenting on the sell-off, CIBC World Markets wrote in a note to clients that “Gold – looks like a large seller of gold in the market. a 10k contract traded, down ticked the price by $40/oz. roughly 200k contracts trade per day, but unusual to see such a large single trade. not likely due to contract expiry either. That transaction represents 1mln oz of gold.”
Original Source @ GoldAlert.com





The Bullion Banks Flex Their Muscles

by David Schectman, MilesFranklin.com:
Take a look at the 6-Month Gold Chart:

As you can see, all of the gains since January 24th were erased in a matter of a few hours.

Welcome to the World of Gold (and Silver). Every dollar gained is a struggle with gains virtually never allowed to exceed 2% in any given day, or around $35. Gains of half that much are much more common. Then, the bullion banks flex their muscles, pull all of their bids and flood the market with sell orders and the result is perfectly pictured above, what is commonly referred to as a “waterfall” decline. The market has just met a “not-for-profit-seller.”
Original Source @ MilesFranklin.com

 

Gold holds at support near $1700

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 6 minutes ago
Gold thus far is holding quite well on the technical price charts as the $100 break in price has apparently revived the huge physical market buyers who are seeing value in the metal near the $1700 level. A closing push through $1725 would be constructive and would set the market up for another test of the resistance barrier near the $1750 level, which held the market in check prior to last week's breakout. Considering the spanking that this market received yesterday, it is showing very good resilience. more »

 

 

Silver back to knocking on the door of chart resistance again

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 12 minutes ago
This is a rather remarkable price chart and what can only be called remarkable price action on display. As you all know by now, silver was absolutely obliterated yesterday resulting in the total erasure of the huge breakout rally from Tuesday. Such occurrences are very uncommon from a purely technical analysis perspective. More often than not, such a breakout will see some initial profit taking followed by another burst of buying as momentum based buying kicks into high gear. To witness a market completely undo such a breakout on massive volume and then to experience only minor add... more »

 

Nothing Is But What Is Not*

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 2 hours ago
*The events my old colleague and I talked about back in 2002 that we anticipated that would blow our minds are happening now. ISDA - controlled by the issuing banks - has determined that the Greek bond deal has not resulted in an even of default event though the new bonds being issued will result in about a 35% recovery rate - initially. When Greece hits the wall again these bonds will be worthless. And the corruption, fraud and crime at MF Global will go unprosecuted. Jon Corzine will walk away with little more than slight embarrassment. In fact, at Wall Street "elitist" cock... more » 

 

 

Italy Clashes Video: Police Battle Rail Protesters in Turin

Anti-rail protesters clashed with police on Wednesday in northern Italy as they demonstrated against a high-speed rail link between Lyon in France and Turin.
The clash broke out when police evicted protesters who for two days had blocked a stretch of highway between Turin and Bardonecchia.
As police cleared their barricades, protesters set fire to tyres and threw rocks at police, who responded by launching tear-gas grenades.

  

Malicious Intent

I would imagine that most of you have already spent time last evening and today, digesting and learning from all of the information regarding the events of yesterday. Frankly, I have neither the time nor inclination to give you a full rehash of the events. So, for the sake of brevity, let’s get right to it.
First of all, if you haven’t yet listened to Santa’s interview with Eric King yesterday, please do so now! Click the link below and keep the audio running while you examine the rest of this post. Be sure you listen to the entire thing. The last 3 minutes are extremely important!
Read More @ TFMetalsReport.com




Currencies – Crisis & Opportunity

by Axel G Merk, FinancialSense.com:


The road to hell is paved with good intentions. According to some estimates, Germany will contribute approximately 28% of the €130 billion (approx. US$170 billion) bailout recently agreed for Greece; yet, rather than expressing their gratitude, protestors on the streets in Athens burn German flags. While some are celebrating that Greece is – at least for now – not falling into chaos, we are rather concerned about major shifts in European policy making that have unfolded in recent months. Where there is a crisis, there may be opportunities – but not necessarily in the places one might expect.







  • The exposure of financial institutions towards Greek debt. A lot of progress has been made in making the European banking system more robust; the envisioned 53% write-down of Greek debt is priced into markets already. Concerns regarding outright exposure to Greece have abated. Rather, concerns linger about the inter-dependency across financial institutions, the potential “contagion” as other countries – and thus financial institutions across Europe and beyond – may be considered at increased risk of default.
  • Read More @ FinancialSense.com





    To End the Fed, Paul Will Have to Start Questioning It

    by Chris Powell, GATA:

    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
    At a hearing today of the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services, Rep. Ron Paul did an entertaining job of berating Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke about the Fed’s long debasement of the dollar. Video of Paul’s comments has been posted at GoldSeek’s companion Internet site, SilverSeek, here –
    http://www.silverseek.com/article/ron-paul-assaults-ben-bernanke-paralle…
    – and Forbes’ Agustino Fontevecchia produced a fair and complete written account, which is appended.
    But as much as advocates of free markets in the monetary metals may have enjoyed the proceedings, to GATA they were another waste of the most precious opportunity — the opportunity to pry gold information out of the Fed or to show the Fed concealing its most sensitive secrets.
    Read More @ GATA.org




    Why is the Financial World So Messed Up?

    by Graham Summers, GainsPainsCapital.com:
    Why is the financial world so messed up? Because it’s run by Central Bankers. And those folks view money very differently from the businesspeople who actually create businesses, jobs, and wealth.
    For your average Central Banker, the professional relationship between money and risk is a distant one. This has much to do with the fact that your average Central Banker is an academic, someone whose income has been fixed based on his or her status at a particular academic institution (tenure vs. non-tenured).
    Consequently, there is virtually no direct correlation between a salary increase and risk-taking or innovation. In academia, politics and the number of one’s publications (which is also a highly political process) are what determine one’s income, status, and power.
    Read More @ GainsPainsCapital.com




    What Happened To Gold?


    Dear CIGAs,

    clip_image002
    What happened to gold on 29 February 2012? The precious metal dropped from $1792 to a low of $1686 in one day!
    How does this shape up with our Elliott Wave expectations?
    The answer is that the market is tracking well in line with expectations. Before dealing with the current move, it is an idea to go over what our expectations are. What we know so far is that Intermediate Wave III started at $1523 and that we have a target of $4,500 for the end of Wave III. We also know that Wave III will consist of five regular waves which we will label 1 2 3 4 and 5. Regular waves 2 and 4 will be the anticipated 13% downward corrections described in my speech to the Sydney Gold Symposium. Link at: http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/11/14/keynote-speech-at-sydney-gold-symposium-14-15-november-2011-by-alf-field/
    Regular wave 1 will consist of 5 minor waves which we label (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) and (v). Waves (ii) and (iv) will be downward corrective waves one degree small than the regular waves. Thus they should be about half the magnitude of the 13% of the regular sized declines, say about 6%.
    Minor wave (i) should consist of five minuette waves which we can label i ii iii iv and v. Again the minuette waves ii and iv will be downward corrective waves about half the size of the minor wave corrections of 6%. Thus the minuette corrections should be approximately 3%.
    The following is the analysis of minor wave (i) showing the five minuette waves:
    i 1523 to 1665 +142 +9%
    ii 1665 to 1620 – 45 -2.7%
    iii 1620 to 1765 +145 +9%
    iv 1765 to 1706 – 59 -3.3%
    v 1706 to 1792 + 86 +5%
    (i) 1523 to 1792 +269 +17.7%
    The two corrective waves are approximately 3% as expected. Waves i and iii are equal at 9% while wave v is almost exactly 61.8% of waves i and iii. This wave count is as perfect as one could wish for. Thus we can conclude that minor wave (i) was completed at $1792.
    As described above, minor wave (ii) should be a correction of approximately 6%, but could range from 5% to 8%. A decline of 6% from the $1792 peak gives a target of $1685. In after hours trading yesterday gold reached $1686.
    The Comex chart, however, shows a low point of $1696.
    It is possible that the entire correction in minor wave (ii) occurred in one day. A rally followed by a further decline to test the $1685 area is a more likely outcome. An 8% decline would bring the $1650 area into play. If gold drops below this level we will have to consider other possibilities.
    Once the bottom of minor wave (ii) is in place in a convincing fashion it will be possible to make some more accurate longer term gold price forecasts.
    Alf Field
    1 March 2012
    Comments to ajfield@attglobal.net

     

     

    In The News Today


    Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

    The following article is translated from German. The original can be found here.

    Japan helps in the "Euro-rescue" from? February 28th, 2012 Comments Off
    It condensed the evidence that weakens the Bank of Japan intervention currency trading the yen and the euro strengthens. These "secret manipulations that are carried out through intermediaries facilitate insider trading."
    Lars sound
    The central bank’s policy, it is such a thing: one does not know anything specific. Rarely leave the state banks the way of concealment, and notes how Chris Powell of GATA ". Even tell if it the truth, this is far from the whole truth" The truth would often "that their secret manipulations, the above intermediary are performed to facilitate insider trading. "
    In this context, Powell drew attention to a brief article of the U.S. economist Warren Mosler, who is indirectly related keys, if it comes, that Japan would guarantee the financial bailouts for Europe.
    So there Mosler points out that "perhaps the Bank of Japan announced their member banks a sign to buy debt of euro members, which are denominated in euros, and to keep the exchange rate risk in their books with the knowledge that the government policy to the yen weak guarantee to keep the banks and a foreign exchange gain is. "
    Recently, Javier E. David had the Wall Street Journal in an article titled "Japan’s Secret Yen Intervention Could Be Template For Future" written that the Japanese central bank covered through intermediary commercial banks in the foreign exchange market only to bring about a yen depreciation – see:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120207-719675.html .

    Accordingly, the Bank of Japan had "secretly for a few days in November yen sold" to bring about a relative strength of the yen exchange rate. These fits what LarsSchall.com on 19 March 2011 reported that the name was New York Fed, which operates as an agent of the U.S. Treasury on foreign exchange transactions, intervened in the currency trading in order to weaken the yen – see:
    http://www.larsschall.com/2011/03/19/ny-fed-greift-im-devisenmarkt-ein/ .

    Mosler, writes that the covert purchase of euro debt securities at the prior sale of yen Japanese currency has weakened against the euro – see:
    In a 24-page brochure from the year 2008, in Basel, Switzerland-based bank offered for International Settlements, which partly privately owned "central bank of central banks", incidentally, on page 17 special services, "Gold & Forex Services – Intervention" – see :
    http://www.gata.org/files/BISAdvertisesGoldInterventions.pdf .




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    Credit System Subverted – Implosion Imminent With Trillion Euro Gamble


    On Wednesday, the second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO), sponsored by Mario Draghi’s European Central Bank, lent out a staggering €529 billion to faltering banks, which could put up almost any collateral to get these short term life rafts. Nearly 800 commercial banks took advantage of the ECB’s half trillion euro currency blast—taking the grand total of the European Central Bank’s LTRO program to over a trillion euros.
    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph quotes a few congratulatory bakers and academics, who make it seem as if Draghi’s central bank just saved the credit system and the entire universe:
    Read More @ GoldSilver.com

    Caesar Bryan: Yesterday’s Gold Selling Raises Serious Red Flags

    Today 25 year veteran Gabelli Gold Fund manager, Caesar Bryan, told King World News that yesterday’s selling in the gold market raises some serious red flags. Gabelli & Company has over $31 billion under management and Caesar Bryan has managed the gold fund since its inception in 1994. Caesar also said the activity was very suspicious because the selling was not designed to maximize revenue. Here is what Bryan had to say about the situation: “What we saw yesterday in the gold market was very large volume just pounding the market lower and it raises the question, is this a seller who is trying to maximize his revenues? The answer is, maybe not because it was very sudden and the volume appeared to be very large.”
    Caesar Bryan continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com

    Corporate Media Officially Stops Covering Paul Campaign

    Only one news organization has an “embed” reporter covering Paul full time
    by Steve Watson, InfoWars.com

    GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul and his supporters have long complained that the establishment media deliberately operates a blackout when it comes to Paul’s campaign, a claim that has been verified time and time again.
    Now yet more evidence has emerged that highlights the level to which the media is purposefully sidelining the Libertarian Congressman.
    As Dylan Byers of Politico reports, NBC News is the only media organization that still has a reporter covering Ron Paul full-time.
    With only four candidates remaining in the race for the GOP nomination, with Super Tuesday looming, and with the Republican national convention just six months away, you would think that mainstream media organizations would have dispatched at least one reporter to cover each of the candidates campaigns.
    Read More @ InfoWars.com

    A Single Seller Drove Gold Down as Bernanke Testified

    “Large Seller in the Market” as COMEX Gold Hits $1,708
    [Ed. Note: Related.]
    from GoldAlert.com:

    COMEX gold futures continued to tumble in late morning trading, with the April contract plummeting as much as $80.00, or 4.5%, to $1,708.40 per ounce.
    The decline coincided with a rally in the U.S. dollar after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress showed that the central bank is not close to embarking on further monetary easing.
    Today’s drop in gold futures marked the yellow metal’s worst day since September 23, 2011 – when it tumbled 4.7%.
    Commenting on the sell-off, CIBC World Markets wrote in a note to clients that “Gold – looks like a large seller of gold in the market. a 10k contract traded, down ticked the price by $40/oz. roughly 200k contracts trade per day, but unusual to see such a large single trade. not likely due to contract expiry either. That transaction represents 1mln oz of gold.”
    Original Source @ GoldAlert.com

    The Bullion Banks Flex Their Muscles

    by David Schectman, MilesFranklin.com:
    Take a look at the 6-Month Gold Chart:

    As you can see, all of the gains since January 24th were erased in a matter of a few hours.

    Welcome to the World of Gold (and Silver). Every dollar gained is a struggle with gains virtually never allowed to exceed 2% in any given day, or around $35. Gains of half that much are much more common. Then, the bullion banks flex their muscles, pull all of their bids and flood the market with sell orders and the result is perfectly pictured above, what is commonly referred to as a “waterfall” decline. The market has just met a “not-for-profit-seller.”
    Original Source @ MilesFranklin.com

    Gold holds at support near $1700

    Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 6 minutes ago
    Gold thus far is holding quite well on the technical price charts as the $100 break in price has apparently revived the huge physical market buyers who are seeing value in the metal near the $1700 level. A closing push through $1725 would be constructive and would set the market up for another test of the resistance barrier near the $1750 level, which held the market in check prior to last week's breakout. Considering the spanking that this market received yesterday, it is showing very good resilience. more »

    Silver back to knocking on the door of chart resistance again

    Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 12 minutes ago
    This is a rather remarkable price chart and what can only be called remarkable price action on display. As you all know by now, silver was absolutely obliterated yesterday resulting in the total erasure of the huge breakout rally from Tuesday. Such occurrences are very uncommon from a purely technical analysis perspective. More often than not, such a breakout will see some initial profit taking followed by another burst of buying as momentum based buying kicks into high gear. To witness a market completely undo such a breakout on massive volume and then to experience only minor add... more »

     

    Nothing Is But What Is Not*

    Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 2 hours ago
    *The events my old colleague and I talked about back in 2002 that we anticipated that would blow our minds are happening now. ISDA - controlled by the issuing banks - has determined that the Greek bond deal has not resulted in an even of default event though the new bonds being issued will result in about a 35% recovery rate - initially. When Greece hits the wall again these bonds will be worthless. And the corruption, fraud and crime at MF Global will go unprosecuted. Jon Corzine will walk away with little more than slight embarrassment. In fact, at Wall Street "elitist" cock... more » 

    Italy Clashes Video: Police Battle Rail Protesters in Turin

    Anti-rail protesters clashed with police on Wednesday in northern Italy as they demonstrated against a high-speed rail link between Lyon in France and Turin.
    The clash broke out when police evicted protesters who for two days had blocked a stretch of highway between Turin and Bardonecchia.
    As police cleared their barricades, protesters set fire to tyres and threw rocks at police, who responded by launching tear-gas grenades.

      

    Malicious Intent

    I would imagine that most of you have already spent time last evening and today, digesting and learning from all of the information regarding the events of yesterday. Frankly, I have neither the time nor inclination to give you a full rehash of the events. So, for the sake of brevity, let’s get right to it.
    First of all, if you haven’t yet listened to Santa’s interview with Eric King yesterday, please do so now! Click the link below and keep the audio running while you examine the rest of this post. Be sure you listen to the entire thing. The last 3 minutes are extremely important!
    Read More @ TFMetalsReport.com




    Currencies – Crisis & Opportunity

    by Axel G Merk, FinancialSense.com:


    The road to hell is paved with good intentions. According to some estimates, Germany will contribute approximately 28% of the €130 billion (approx. US$170 billion) bailout recently agreed for Greece; yet, rather than expressing their gratitude, protestors on the streets in Athens burn German flags. While some are celebrating that Greece is – at least for now – not falling into chaos, we are rather concerned about major shifts in European policy making that have unfolded in recent months. Where there is a crisis, there may be opportunities – but not necessarily in the places one might expect.





  • The exposure of financial institutions towards Greek debt. A lot of progress has been made in making the European banking system more robust; the envisioned 53% write-down of Greek debt is priced into markets already. Concerns regarding outright exposure to Greece have abated. Rather, concerns linger about the inter-dependency across financial institutions, the potential “contagion” as other countries – and thus financial institutions across Europe and beyond – may be considered at increased risk of default.
  • Read More @ FinancialSense.com





    To End the Fed, Paul Will Have to Start Questioning It

    by Chris Powell, GATA:

    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
    At a hearing today of the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services, Rep. Ron Paul did an entertaining job of berating Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke about the Fed’s long debasement of the dollar. Video of Paul’s comments has been posted at GoldSeek’s companion Internet site, SilverSeek, here –
    http://www.silverseek.com/article/ron-paul-assaults-ben-bernanke-paralle…
    – and Forbes’ Agustino Fontevecchia produced a fair and complete written account, which is appended.
    But as much as advocates of free markets in the monetary metals may have enjoyed the proceedings, to GATA they were another waste of the most precious opportunity — the opportunity to pry gold information out of the Fed or to show the Fed concealing its most sensitive secrets.
    Read More @ GATA.org




    Why is the Financial World So Messed Up?

    by Graham Summers, GainsPainsCapital.com:
    Why is the financial world so messed up? Because it’s run by Central Bankers. And those folks view money very differently from the businesspeople who actually create businesses, jobs, and wealth.
    For your average Central Banker, the professional relationship between money and risk is a distant one. This has much to do with the fact that your average Central Banker is an academic, someone whose income has been fixed based on his or her status at a particular academic institution (tenure vs. non-tenured).
    Consequently, there is virtually no direct correlation between a salary increase and risk-taking or innovation. In academia, politics and the number of one’s publications (which is also a highly political process) are what determine one’s income, status, and power.
    Read More @ GainsPainsCapital.com




    What Happened To Gold?


    Dear CIGAs,

    clip_image002
    What happened to gold on 29 February 2012? The precious metal dropped from $1792 to a low of $1686 in one day!
    How does this shape up with our Elliott Wave expectations?
    The answer is that the market is tracking well in line with expectations. Before dealing with the current move, it is an idea to go over what our expectations are. What we know so far is that Intermediate Wave III started at $1523 and that we have a target of $4,500 for the end of Wave III. We also know that Wave III will consist of five regular waves which we will label 1 2 3 4 and 5. Regular waves 2 and 4 will be the anticipated 13% downward corrections described in my speech to the Sydney Gold Symposium. Link at: http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/11/14/keynote-speech-at-sydney-gold-symposium-14-15-november-2011-by-alf-field/
    Regular wave 1 will consist of 5 minor waves which we label (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) and (v). Waves (ii) and (iv) will be downward corrective waves one degree small than the regular waves. Thus they should be about half the magnitude of the 13% of the regular sized declines, say about 6%.
    Minor wave (i) should consist of five minuette waves which we can label i ii iii iv and v. Again the minuette waves ii and iv will be downward corrective waves about half the size of the minor wave corrections of 6%. Thus the minuette corrections should be approximately 3%.
    The following is the analysis of minor wave (i) showing the five minuette waves:
    i 1523 to 1665 +142 +9%
    ii 1665 to 1620 – 45 -2.7%
    iii 1620 to 1765 +145 +9%
    iv 1765 to 1706 – 59 -3.3%
    v 1706 to 1792 + 86 +5%
    (i) 1523 to 1792 +269 +17.7%
    The two corrective waves are approximately 3% as expected. Waves i and iii are equal at 9% while wave v is almost exactly 61.8% of waves i and iii. This wave count is as perfect as one could wish for. Thus we can conclude that minor wave (i) was completed at $1792.
    As described above, minor wave (ii) should be a correction of approximately 6%, but could range from 5% to 8%. A decline of 6% from the $1792 peak gives a target of $1685. In after hours trading yesterday gold reached $1686.
    The Comex chart, however, shows a low point of $1696.
    It is possible that the entire correction in minor wave (ii) occurred in one day. A rally followed by a further decline to test the $1685 area is a more likely outcome. An 8% decline would bring the $1650 area into play. If gold drops below this level we will have to consider other possibilities.
    Once the bottom of minor wave (ii) is in place in a convincing fashion it will be possible to make some more accurate longer term gold price forecasts.
    Alf Field
    1 March 2012
    Comments to ajfield@attglobal.net

     

     

    In The News Today


    Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

    The following article is translated from German. The original can be found here.

    Japan helps in the "Euro-rescue" from? February 28th, 2012 Comments Off
    It condensed the evidence that weakens the Bank of Japan intervention currency trading the yen and the euro strengthens. These "secret manipulations that are carried out through intermediaries facilitate insider trading."
    Lars sound
    The central bank’s policy, it is such a thing: one does not know anything specific. Rarely leave the state banks the way of concealment, and notes how Chris Powell of GATA ". Even tell if it the truth, this is far from the whole truth" The truth would often "that their secret manipulations, the above intermediary are performed to facilitate insider trading. "
    In this context, Powell drew attention to a brief article of the U.S. economist Warren Mosler, who is indirectly related keys, if it comes, that Japan would guarantee the financial bailouts for Europe.
    So there Mosler points out that "perhaps the Bank of Japan announced their member banks a sign to buy debt of euro members, which are denominated in euros, and to keep the exchange rate risk in their books with the knowledge that the government policy to the yen weak guarantee to keep the banks and a foreign exchange gain is. "
    Recently, Javier E. David had the Wall Street Journal in an article titled "Japan’s Secret Yen Intervention Could Be Template For Future" written that the Japanese central bank covered through intermediary commercial banks in the foreign exchange market only to bring about a yen depreciation – see:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120207-719675.html .

    Accordingly, the Bank of Japan had "secretly for a few days in November yen sold" to bring about a relative strength of the yen exchange rate. These fits what LarsSchall.com on 19 March 2011 reported that the name was New York Fed, which operates as an agent of the U.S. Treasury on foreign exchange transactions, intervened in the currency trading in order to weaken the yen – see:
    http://www.larsschall.com/2011/03/19/ny-fed-greift-im-devisenmarkt-ein/ .

    Mosler, writes that the covert purchase of euro debt securities at the prior sale of yen Japanese currency has weakened against the euro – see:
    In a 24-page brochure from the year 2008, in Basel, Switzerland-based bank offered for International Settlements, which partly privately owned "central bank of central banks", incidentally, on page 17 special services, "Gold & Forex Services – Intervention" – see :
    http://www.gata.org/files/BISAdvertisesGoldInterventions.pdf .




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    John Taylor Warns Of A "Highly Disastrous, Totally Uncontrollable Inflationary Conflagration"

    All this money sloshing around is nothing but kindling. This is enough to start one hell of a large inflationary fire, but probably not until we have a deflationary panic first – which will add even more kindling to the pile. The progression from the $1.5 billion Chrysler rescue to the current multi-trillion dollar worldwide financial support operations seems to parallel the march from the first US forestry service attempts to limit forest fires about a century ago to the far more sophisticated efforts possible today... Studies have shown that the onset of that catastrophe is almost totally unpredictable. By suppressing small fires, the forests approach an unstable state where the dead wood, resulting from the natural cycle of birth and death in the wild, is piled high, ready to explode into flames if the conditions are right. The central banks and other governmental authorities have piled the money so high that bubbles are popping up everywhere. With so many bubbles and so much kindling, volatility in price is a sure thing. As research has shown that the timing of these dramatic breakdowns, whether a forest fire, an earthquake, or a market crash cannot predicted, or mitigated as it runs its course, the time to control these crises is way before they start. The US Forestry Service knows that, please tell Bernanke! 





    Greek Economy Suffers Record Collapse In February


    There are those who recall that not ten days ago, according to the IMF's Greek (un)sustainability analysis, worst case scenario no less, Greek GDP would somehow miraculously post just a 1% drop in 2013. Unfortunately this won't happen. According to the overnight PMI update out of Europe (where was saw the jobless rate at the highest since 1997), the Greek economy just imploded at a record pace. This follows the already horrendous budget revenue data from January which came in down 7% on expectations of a 9% rise. Sure enough, as expected the fact that the entire country has taken the rest of 2012 off with no incentive to actually work, will do miracles for Greece. From Reuters: "The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Greece fell to a survey low of 37.7 points in February from 41.0 in January, staying below the 50 mark that divides growth in activity from contraction for each of the past 30 months. Production and new order volumes fell at the sharpest pace in the near 13 year history of the survey as austerity sapped demand. New export orders fell for a sixth straight month and at the steepest rate since May 2010." Translated: the situation is hopeless and getting worse. Expect the German, pardon Troika, Kommissar to be shocked, shocked, to find out that not only do banks in Greece have no deposits left, but the entire economy picked up and left.




    Gold and Silver Plunge – Called “Intervention”, “Window Dressing”, “Temporary Smash”, “Paper Fiasco”

    The positive PMI data would ordinarily result in some price weakness as would the testimony from Bernanke which suggested that the Federal Reserve's ultra loose monetary policies may not continue much longer. However, the scale of the selling and size of the price falls was unusual. Respected analysts such as legendary Jim Sinclair, John Embry and Jean-Marie Eveillard suggested that the sell off was due to manipulation by bullion banks. Sinclair said it was an “intervention” and was “window dressing” that long term bullion investors should not be concerned about as inflation was coming due to “QE to Infinity.” Embry said that it was a “smash down” and a “paper fiasco.” Jean-Marie Eveillard suggested that central banks may have intervened, as they are doing in fx and bond markets, and sold gold in volume into the market. It is of course very difficult to ascertain what caused the sharp falls in the precious metals yesterday however it would be naive to completely discount what Sinclair, Embry and Eveillard believe may have happened.









    Gold & Silver Smash Temporary, Oil to Super-Spike
    http://kingworldnews.com
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/11540ab8-62ec-11e1-9245-00144feabdc0.html

    Fannie Asks Gov't for Almost $4.6B after 4Q Loss
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fannie-asks-govt-almost-4-152028535.html
    http://www.democracynow.org/2012/1/31/taxpayer_funded_freddie_mac_caught_betting

    20 Economic Statistics To Use To Wake Sheeple Up From Their Entertainment-Induced Comas
    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/20-economic-statistics-to-use-to-...

    Feds Release Official List Of Words Monitored On Social Networking Sites
    http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2012/02/27/official-list-words-feds-monitore...
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YPlmGDnOvE

    Obama Issues 'Policy Directive' Exempting American Citizens From Indefinite Detention
    http://www.infowars.com/obama-issues-policy-directive-exempting-american-citi...
    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/NDAAFactSheetFINAL.pdf

    Romney Crowds vs Ron Paul Crowds
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIP-ibpRYIY

    Poor Man's Water Purifier
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLwY2qgYqsw

    How the Media Should Be Treated
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMnZXPz4KXU



    Greece Default SWAPS Don’t Have to Pay: ISDA

    Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 8 minutes ago
    Headline: Greece Default SWAPS Don’t Have to Pay: ISDA Default insurance on Greek debt won’t be paid out, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said after it was asked to rule whether part of the nation’s $170 billion bailout was a credit event. The group said the European Central Bank’s exchange of Greek bonds for new securities exempt from losses being imposed on private... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] more »
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    ECB’s Latest Loans To European Banks Will Only Calm Markets Short-Term

    Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago
    Marc Faber said the European Central Bank’s latest loans to European banks will only calm markets short-term, lead to inflation in the long-term and push banks’ funding problems into the future, Handelsblatt said in a preview of a story that will run tomorrow, citing the fund manager. - *in Bloomberg* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* more »

     

     

    Who Is The Best President For America?

    Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
    *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* more »

     

     

    Window Dressing Won't Change The View

    Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago
    Silver closed the 9/22 gap on a massive surge in volume (see chart 1). This surge in volume suggests that this resistance zone despite yesterday's resurgence of doubt and fear; major support and resistance zones tend to fail in threes. For example, trading heuristics such as three drives to a top and three taps and out describe this tendency. Silver must be watched closely. It's highly... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] more »

     

     

    Paper Ambushes Create Elevator Shaft Declines

    Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 4 hours ago

    As John Embry writes, "Central planners can’t announce they are going to have constant and massive QE or everything would go to the moon. So the idea is floated around that QE3 is off the table.” Orchestrated paper attacks on the price of gold and silver tend to be most effective during tentative A-and late C-waves advances. The sharply contracting negative lease spreads by mid February hinted... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]




    GM Channel Stuffing Soars To All Time High


    Did channel stuffing expert AOL quietly merge with a Government Motors without anyone's knowledge? Because making record amounts of cars only to have them amortize rapidly in showrooms must be some New Normal definition of a recovery.




    Goldman Closes Long Russell 2000 Trade On "Sagging Macro Data", "Softer Patch In US Data"

    Busy day for our friends from Goldman who are now turning quite bearish it appears following the two GDP cuts earlier.




    Goldman Lowers Q1 GDP For Second Time In One Day

    Earlier we noted how Goldman cut their tracking forecast for Q1 GDP from 2.3% to 2.0% on weaker consumer spending data (which somehow resulted in a surge in consumer confidence: oh well, the US branch of the Chinese Department of Truth has to justify its budget somehow). Not even a full two hours later, the firm has just whacked its forecast for Q1 GDP again, this time on the major ISM miss. And this, ladies and gents, is ultra high frequency economics, where HFT machines push the market up and down without reason, and where this has an immediate impact on economic indicators, all changed around in real time.




    ISM Misses Big

    Somehow or another, our earlier joke that the ISM should beat the highest Wall Street estimate quickly became the whisper number, which was to be expected in the aftermath of yesterday's comparable Chicago PMI action. Which is why when the final ISM came at a whopping miss of 52.5, on consensus of 54.5, and down from 54.1, the market was less than happy. It gets worse: while the bulk of major ISM index components dropped in February, with PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment and Deliveries all down (Inventories unch), it was the scariest component that posted a major jump as Prices soared +6 to 61.5, the highest since June. And with Exports and Imports both improving, this proves that already in February rising gasoline prices started impairing US manufacturing. But don't tell that to the cheerleaders: because who was in the top spot of Wall Street "forecasters" if not Joe LaVorgna with his estimate of 56.0 for the ISM. Regardless, expect market sentiment to immediately shift to one that despite what Bernanke said less than 24 hours ago, this miss is an immediate green light for QE3 and the market should close at or near 14,000. Unless, of course, the vacuum tubes realize the minor detail that when David Tepper went "Balls to the Wall" and both bad news and good news meant stock upside, WTI was $85. It is $108 and rising now.





    Market Share, Profitability, Why CDS Isn't On An Exchange

    So, yesterday it was revealed that both Goldman and JPM had about 145 billion of “gross” notional outstanding on CDS related to the PIIGS. That means they each had roughly 145 billion of purchases and sales. They spoke about various netting agreements that makes the real number lower. They also mentioned with collateral and on a mark to market basis, the real exposure is far lower. Fine, though I wonder why they don’t execute the “master” netting and get the gross notionals down? Wouldn’t that help the system? If these were cleared or on an exchange, all they would have a single net exposure for each country. The collateral and netting would be handled at the central clearing or exchange. Wouldn’t that be simpler? Safer? The e-mini S&P future contract seems to be able to trade that way just fine, and it is more volatile than CDS on most days. Italian CDS is in 25 bps today – seems like a lot, but the up-front payment to buy or sell Italian CDS has changed by less than 1%.




    Greek 1 Year Bond 80% Away From 1000%


    Today for the first time ever Greek 10 year bonds slide to below 20% of par (5.9% of 2022 dropped to 19.145 cents) as expected some time ago, as increasingly the revulsion to post reorg bonds gets greater and greater courtesy of that now meaningless cash coupon of 2% through 2015. When considering that the country will redefault within a year, it explains why nobody has any interest in holding Greek paper even assuming there is an EFSF bill sweetener. Also, today's ISDA decision did not help. What is most amusing is that as of this morning, the country's 1 Year bonds hit an all time high yield of 920.2%. Well, if Greek bonds crossing 100% just 5 months ago was not quite attractive, perhaps 1000% will. At this rate we expect said threshold to cross some time today.




    Personal Income, Spending Come In Weaker Ahead Of Gasoline Price Shock

    And some more bad news for the economy, as the driver of 70% of US GDP, the US consumer, continues to retrench. Today's personal spending and income data showed several things: that in January Personal Incomes did not keep pace with the rate of growth, rising 0.3% compared to 0.5% in December, and less than the 0.5% expected. Spending also missed expectations of a 0.4% rise, instead picking up just 0.2%, from 0.0% in December. More importantly, we once again see that living in a socialist state has its drawbacks when the spigot is shut off: among the biggest drivers for the weak data was a change in government handouts: "Personal current transfer receipts decreased $3.6 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $13.8 billion in December.  Within personal current transfer receipts, “other” government social benefits to persons decreased $14.9 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $1.5 billion in December.  The January change in “other” government social benefits to persons reflected a decrease of $13.6 billion due to the expiration of the Making Work Pay refundable tax credits." Luckily what the government takes with one hand it offsets with the other: "Government social benefits for Medicaid decreased $7.8 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $0.2 billion in December.  Government social benefits for social security increased $20.3 billion in January, compared to an increase of $9.6 billion in December. The January change reflected 3.6-percent cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) to social security benefits and to several other federal transfer payment programs.  Together, these COLAs added $30.2 billion to the January increase in government social benefits to persons."  Well at least somebody still does COLA in this day and age of ubiquitous 'deflation.'




    Jobless Claims Unchanged At 351K, Fall Vs Upward Revised Number

    A rather uneventful initial claims report which came in line with the election year expectations, beating consensus of +355K modestly, at 351K, which is where it was last week, except for the traditional 100% of the time, upward revision to last week's data, which was pushed higher from 351K to 353K, and in turn which will force algos to read the news as a decline in claims. Today's number gets some additional scrutiny as it comes in the NFP survey week. Continuing claims same deal: the number came a little better than expectations of 3418K at 3402K, was a deterioration compared to the unrevised last week number of 3392K but an improvement to the revised # which was 3404K. On the other hand, people at the trailing end of the cliff declined, as those on EUCs and Extended benefits dropped by 16K in the week ended February 11. As a result, people collecting extended benefits are now 1.13 million less than a year ago, and no longer collect direct BLS benefits. As for disability that's a different matter. Finally, none of this impacts America's young workers, who as noted yesterday, have an employment rate of 54%.




    Today's Busy Event Roster: ISM, Lack Of Personal Income, Job Losses, Construction Outlays, and GM Channel Stuffing

    Very busy day today with personal lack of savings, an ISM number which will likely beat consensus so much it will be above the highest Wall Street estimate, construction lack of outlays, Ben Bernanke speech day two, GM channel stuffing, and many Fed speakers.




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