The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Guide
Posted: Jan 30 2011 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: January 30, 2011 at 12:23 am
Filed under: In The News
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is some more accelerant for the Egyptian fire.
Jordan’s opposition: Arabs will topple tyrants Jan 29, 1:10 PM (ET)
By JAMAL HALABY
AMMAN, Jordan (AP) – The leader of Jordan’s powerful Muslim Brotherhood warned Saturday that unrest in Egypt will spread across the Mideast and Arabs will topple leaders allied with the United States.
Hammam Saeed’s comments were made at a protest outside the Egyptian Embassy in Amman, inspired by massive rallies in neighboring Egypt demanding the downfall of the country’s longtime president, Hosni Mubarak.
About 100 members of the fundamentalist group and activists from other leftist organizations and trade unions chanted "Mubarak, step down" and "the decision is made, the people’s revolt will remain."
Elsewhere, a separate group of 300 protesters gathered in front of the office of Jordanian Prime Minister Samir Rifai, demanding his ouster. "Rifai, it’s time for you to go," chanted the group.
Jordan’s protests have been relatively small in size, but they underline a rising tension with Jordan’s King Abdullah II, a key U.S. ally who has been making promises of reform in recent days in an apparent attempt to quell domestic discontent over economic degradation and lack of political freedoms.
But as a monarch with deep support from the Bedouin-dominated military, Jordan’s ruler is not seen as vulnerable as Mubarak or Tunisia’s deposed leader. Even the Brotherhood – a fiery critic of Jordan’s moderate government – has remained largely loyal to the king, who claims ancestry to Islam’s Prophet Muhammad.
More…
Posted: Jan 30 2011 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: January 30, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Filed under: Jim's Mailbox
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
CIGA Pedro clearly outlines how the demise of the dollar is the demise of much more. Greenspan gave away more than anyone knows.
Gold is your only insurance policy against things we cannot control regardless of the wild fluctuation of the price. We must be our own central bank.
Inflation Inflation Everywhere and Not a Drop to Drink
At last, the doubters have nowhere to hide. The world is starkly revealed as an interconnected political economy force, and not as a disparate grouping of various nations, some authoritarian, some choosing democratically agreed upon policies, creating policy choice and thereby shaping of political outcome. Greece, Ireland, Tunisia, and now, the fulcrum of the Arab world, Egypt, stand as testimony. They are countries caught up in the machinations of a monetary policy to debase the world’s reserve currency.
All “he” wanted was some inflation, a little inflation to get America and the west out of the deflationary spiral caused by the failure of financial instruments (a.k.a. OTC Derivatives) and un-payable government debt – but he can’t get it. Everywhere it rages, but the place he wants it – home. So it erupts in global food prices and manifests itself in the attempts to bail out stone dead banks on the backs of the marginal economic player – post-destruction of the middle class. Most of the world has no savings to get through difficult times. Most of the world cannot “hedge” inflationary outcomes. Those outcomes appear quickly and change realities violently. The inflationary reality is their reality – the difference between starvation and survival. The result? Global upheaval, leading to where, we are not sure… but probably nowhere nice. Think American monetary policy was a uniquely sovereign, American affair? Think again. You are watching QE II live on television. American monetary policy and the global “race to debase” is that raging crowd you see on the television from Ireland to Greece and Egypt. It is that nascent force which Chinese leaders awake in terror, wondering what a billion plus people might do if faced with stark choices. If you can’t make the connection between the monetary policy and the political reality, you need to change the causal way you look at the world.
Nations hold dollars in reserve to meet the demands of running an economy. When debasement takes place, the marginal economic player gets hit first. This is what we see now. But there is another, geo-political aspect many are missing. The western attempts to control multiple political outcomes and a global geo-political/military order rests on the ability to finance and control that order. When the money gets degraded, the ability to finance that order goes with it. Degradation of currency inhibits foreign force projection, both militarily and politically. Nobody in Egypt believes America is capable of controlling political outcomes, as they did from Suez to Mubarak. That era has passed. It passed with the Shah of Iran, and the death of the widely despised (in Egypt) Anwar Sadat. The Mubarak intermezzo is over. In the Arab world, what happens in Egypt doesn’t stay in Egypt. The potential for “regime change” in Saudi Arabia is growing. Now we find that the financial necessity for Dollar debasement wasn’t as politically benign as people in Washington thought. Instability rages across a region that could usher in an era of global conflict.
People say, “be careful what you wish for” when you talk about the end of western hegemony, but while the political hegemony is dying by the hour, the monetary hegemony is currently intact and its results are evident. When those results swing full circle and return to the west, currency upheaval will be guaranteed. Global system breakdown, which made its debut in 2008 is now back for its main act. Money printing didn’t quite work out the way it was supposed to. This time, a rush to the security of Treasury instruments is unlikely to be the fallback position for global capital that now sees Fed monetary policy as a destructive boomerang cutting inflationary swathes across the planet… en route to its place of origin.
CIGA Pedro
Greetings Jim,
Gold closed slightly lower this week, reacting sharply off of the lower boundary of the uptrend from late 2008.
We are now 26 weeks into the intermediate-term cycle following the low on July 30. Ninety percent of all Intermediate-Term Cycle Lows (ITCL) form within 23 weeks of the previous low, so Cycle Analysis (CA) indicates that the latest ITCL is imminent and could occur at any time.
Additionally, the short-term cycle is currently within the window during which the next Short-Term Cycle Low (STCL) is likely to occur, and the setup for a confirmed STCL signal was generated on Friday as both of our CA price oscillators experienced bullish crossovers.
The trigger for confirming this STCL signal would be a daily close above $1,346. A confirmed STCL next week would significantly increase the likelihood of the ITCL occurring as well, and a synchronized short-term and intermediate-term low would forecast a move up to new all-time highs during the next 2 to 3 months.
Best,
CIGA Erik
Prometheus Market Insight
http://www.prometheusmi.com
Confused by all the contradictions and outright lies that came out of Hillary Clinton's mouth when discussing Egypt earlier? Have no fear: here is a real-time propaganda filter that will make everything perfectly clear in words even the Egyptian Idol cognoscenti can appreciate.
The one country landlocked between Tunisia and Egypt has so far been oddly silent. Not so much any more. Al Jazeera reports that the Libyan government has imposed a state of emergency for "fear of demonstrations and rallies" comparable to those in Tunisia and Egypt. And ranked 17 in the world for oil production (and 9th in proven reserves), this is one that crude HFT algos may want to keep an eye on.
Citigroup - The Last Recourse Against Runaway Inflation? A Commensurately Greater Jump In The Dollar
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2011 14:34 -0500Citi's head of FX, Steven Englander, has some contrarian observations on the fate of the US dollar, which a more nuanced read may even indicate a slightly conspiratorial bent, namely that in order to cut the surging global inflation dead in its tracks (alas, too late for the regimes of Tunisia and Egypt), the dollar will have to surge even more. To wit: "If the world’s inflation problem is primarily derived from rising commodity and food prices, it is very likely that a stronger USD will help mitigate this inflation quickly and efficiently. There is a well established relationship between USD strength and weaker commodity prices." Of course, with the Printing Dutchman at the helm, what hope is there for a sustainable strong USD thesis: "The problem is that there does not appear to be a market driver for USD strength." Yet this could very well be the contrarian trade going forward as the G-20 looks aghast at events in Africa and realizes that the "last case" scenario just seems that much more credible. If this happens and there a concerted effort to reincarnate the dollar, look for the EURUSD to plunge, and all USDXXX pairs to surge in the following days, especially as the carry funding shorts realize that they will once again, just like in late 2008, be the sacrificial lambs at the altar of "Kicking the can down the road one last time"-dom. Quote Englander: "During a similar high commodity price episode in mid-2008, we saw some evidence of high reserves growth, which is unusual when the private sector is buying dollars. Moreover, then as now, market macro investor positions appeared to be long commodities. While it would be unusual for reserve managers to buy USD for inflation stabilization reasons, as a quick solution to a major problem it may be more effective than most."
As Egyptian Anger Swells, Will America (And Its Regional Interests) Be Targeted Next: "They Are Attacking Us With American Weapons"
Posted: Jan 30 2011 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: January 30, 2011 at 12:23 am
Filed under: In The News
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is some more accelerant for the Egyptian fire.
Jordan’s opposition: Arabs will topple tyrants Jan 29, 1:10 PM (ET)
By JAMAL HALABY
AMMAN, Jordan (AP) – The leader of Jordan’s powerful Muslim Brotherhood warned Saturday that unrest in Egypt will spread across the Mideast and Arabs will topple leaders allied with the United States.
Hammam Saeed’s comments were made at a protest outside the Egyptian Embassy in Amman, inspired by massive rallies in neighboring Egypt demanding the downfall of the country’s longtime president, Hosni Mubarak.
About 100 members of the fundamentalist group and activists from other leftist organizations and trade unions chanted "Mubarak, step down" and "the decision is made, the people’s revolt will remain."
Elsewhere, a separate group of 300 protesters gathered in front of the office of Jordanian Prime Minister Samir Rifai, demanding his ouster. "Rifai, it’s time for you to go," chanted the group.
Jordan’s protests have been relatively small in size, but they underline a rising tension with Jordan’s King Abdullah II, a key U.S. ally who has been making promises of reform in recent days in an apparent attempt to quell domestic discontent over economic degradation and lack of political freedoms.
But as a monarch with deep support from the Bedouin-dominated military, Jordan’s ruler is not seen as vulnerable as Mubarak or Tunisia’s deposed leader. Even the Brotherhood – a fiery critic of Jordan’s moderate government – has remained largely loyal to the king, who claims ancestry to Islam’s Prophet Muhammad.
More…
Posted: Jan 30 2011 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: January 30, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Filed under: Jim's Mailbox
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
CIGA Pedro clearly outlines how the demise of the dollar is the demise of much more. Greenspan gave away more than anyone knows.
Gold is your only insurance policy against things we cannot control regardless of the wild fluctuation of the price. We must be our own central bank.
Inflation Inflation Everywhere and Not a Drop to Drink
At last, the doubters have nowhere to hide. The world is starkly revealed as an interconnected political economy force, and not as a disparate grouping of various nations, some authoritarian, some choosing democratically agreed upon policies, creating policy choice and thereby shaping of political outcome. Greece, Ireland, Tunisia, and now, the fulcrum of the Arab world, Egypt, stand as testimony. They are countries caught up in the machinations of a monetary policy to debase the world’s reserve currency.
All “he” wanted was some inflation, a little inflation to get America and the west out of the deflationary spiral caused by the failure of financial instruments (a.k.a. OTC Derivatives) and un-payable government debt – but he can’t get it. Everywhere it rages, but the place he wants it – home. So it erupts in global food prices and manifests itself in the attempts to bail out stone dead banks on the backs of the marginal economic player – post-destruction of the middle class. Most of the world has no savings to get through difficult times. Most of the world cannot “hedge” inflationary outcomes. Those outcomes appear quickly and change realities violently. The inflationary reality is their reality – the difference between starvation and survival. The result? Global upheaval, leading to where, we are not sure… but probably nowhere nice. Think American monetary policy was a uniquely sovereign, American affair? Think again. You are watching QE II live on television. American monetary policy and the global “race to debase” is that raging crowd you see on the television from Ireland to Greece and Egypt. It is that nascent force which Chinese leaders awake in terror, wondering what a billion plus people might do if faced with stark choices. If you can’t make the connection between the monetary policy and the political reality, you need to change the causal way you look at the world.
Nations hold dollars in reserve to meet the demands of running an economy. When debasement takes place, the marginal economic player gets hit first. This is what we see now. But there is another, geo-political aspect many are missing. The western attempts to control multiple political outcomes and a global geo-political/military order rests on the ability to finance and control that order. When the money gets degraded, the ability to finance that order goes with it. Degradation of currency inhibits foreign force projection, both militarily and politically. Nobody in Egypt believes America is capable of controlling political outcomes, as they did from Suez to Mubarak. That era has passed. It passed with the Shah of Iran, and the death of the widely despised (in Egypt) Anwar Sadat. The Mubarak intermezzo is over. In the Arab world, what happens in Egypt doesn’t stay in Egypt. The potential for “regime change” in Saudi Arabia is growing. Now we find that the financial necessity for Dollar debasement wasn’t as politically benign as people in Washington thought. Instability rages across a region that could usher in an era of global conflict.
People say, “be careful what you wish for” when you talk about the end of western hegemony, but while the political hegemony is dying by the hour, the monetary hegemony is currently intact and its results are evident. When those results swing full circle and return to the west, currency upheaval will be guaranteed. Global system breakdown, which made its debut in 2008 is now back for its main act. Money printing didn’t quite work out the way it was supposed to. This time, a rush to the security of Treasury instruments is unlikely to be the fallback position for global capital that now sees Fed monetary policy as a destructive boomerang cutting inflationary swathes across the planet… en route to its place of origin.
CIGA Pedro
Greetings Jim,
Gold closed slightly lower this week, reacting sharply off of the lower boundary of the uptrend from late 2008.
We are now 26 weeks into the intermediate-term cycle following the low on July 30. Ninety percent of all Intermediate-Term Cycle Lows (ITCL) form within 23 weeks of the previous low, so Cycle Analysis (CA) indicates that the latest ITCL is imminent and could occur at any time.
Additionally, the short-term cycle is currently within the window during which the next Short-Term Cycle Low (STCL) is likely to occur, and the setup for a confirmed STCL signal was generated on Friday as both of our CA price oscillators experienced bullish crossovers.
The trigger for confirming this STCL signal would be a daily close above $1,346. A confirmed STCL next week would significantly increase the likelihood of the ITCL occurring as well, and a synchronized short-term and intermediate-term low would forecast a move up to new all-time highs during the next 2 to 3 months.
Best,
CIGA Erik
Prometheus Market Insight
http://www.prometheusmi.com
Presenting The US State Department Propaganda Filter
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2011 14:41 -0500Confused by all the contradictions and outright lies that came out of Hillary Clinton's mouth when discussing Egypt earlier? Have no fear: here is a real-time propaganda filter that will make everything perfectly clear in words even the Egyptian Idol cognoscenti can appreciate.
Libya Next?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2011 15:39 -0500The one country landlocked between Tunisia and Egypt has so far been oddly silent. Not so much any more. Al Jazeera reports that the Libyan government has imposed a state of emergency for "fear of demonstrations and rallies" comparable to those in Tunisia and Egypt. And ranked 17 in the world for oil production (and 9th in proven reserves), this is one that crude HFT algos may want to keep an eye on.
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