Q&A On The Greek Restructuring, And Why It's All For Nothing

Lots of questions, and answers, from Credit Suisse in this Q&A on the Greek default/restructuring, much of it already covered previously, but the only one that matters is this: "Would the restructuring make the Greek situation sustainable? No. Sorry, but no is the answer. Even with full repudiation of the Greek debt, the situation would not be sustainable. In that event, the deficit would move to the primary balance, 5-6% last year. Not sustainable. And the current account deficit would be in the high single digits. Not sustainable either." So you're telling me there's a chance?

Hours Ahead Of Monday's Euro FinMin Meeting There Is No Greek Deal; IIF "Remains Hopeful"

But wait, we thought Greece and the ECB had an upper hand? Wouldn't they exercise said upper hand by now, considering its now 9pm in Greece on a Sunday, the day before the critical European finmin meeting by which point the Greek deal was supposed to be in place?

Stock Market Rally Still Missing One Thing: A Crowd

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 4 hours ago

Chart 1: Large Cap Stocks Capital Appreciation Index (LCSCAI) and Z Scores of Secular Trends Headline: Stock Market Rally Still Missing One Thing: A Crowd The January stock rally has brought with it hopes that the market will rebound from last year's middling performance, but it has lacked one key ingredient: enough investors. The Standard & Poor's 500 has rallied 4.5 percent so far, but... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The CDS Market And Anti-Trust Considerations

The CDS index market remains one of the most liquid sources of hedges and positioning available (despite occasional waxing and waning in volumes) and is often used by us as indications of relative flows and sophisticated investor risk appetite. However, as Kamakura Corporation has so diligently quantified, the broad CDS market (specifically including single-names) remains massively concentrated. This concentration, evidenced by the Honolulu-based credit guru's findings that three institutions: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citibank National Association, have market shares in excess of 19% each has shown little to no reduction (i.e. the market remains as closed as ever) and they warn that this dramatically increases the probability of collusion and monopoly pricing power. We have long argued that the CDS market is valuable (and outright bans are non-sensical and will end badly) as it offers a more liquid (than bonds) market to express a view or more simply hedge efficiently. However, we do feel strongly that CDS (indices especially) should be exchange traded (more straightforward than ever given standardization, electronic trading increases, and clearing) and perhaps Kamakura's work here will be enough to force regulators and the DoJ to finally turn over the rock (as they did in Libor and Muni markets) and do what should have been done in late 2008 when the banks had little to no chips to bargain with on keeping their high margin CDS trading desks in house (though the exchanges would also obviously have to step up to the plate unlike in 2008).

Guest Post: Looking Back On A Century Of The Fed's BS

After almost a century of the centrally planned dollar we’re delighted to present a timeline of the most amusingly disturbing speeches delivered by the Federal Reserve & Co.











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Banks closed in Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania; first failures of 2012

Fitch seems to consider Greek default almost a certainty.





World Bank Cuts Economic Outlook, Says Europe in Recession, Warns Developing Countries to "Prepare For The Worst"




Silver to Explode Upward




Wall Street Rises On Bank Results, But Google Sinks Late




12 Things To Keep In A Safe At Home, Not In A Bank




Oil Above $101 On Hopes IMF To Curb Europe Crisis

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