"How The Investment Grade Dominos Will Fall" - UBS Explains

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 20:42
As a potential worst case scenario, we use the simple sum of probabilities from 2001- 2002 and the current debt stock as an example of what could happen during a protracted downturn. If this comes to fruition, we estimate fallen angel volumes over 2 years could spike to $413bn, with $117bn of 10+ fallen angel paper (again crashing into a 10+ HY market that is only $48bn in size). This is an ugly spectre that the high-grade markets would need to face in future years. 

When Omnipotence Fails: JPMorgan Warns Upside Uncompelling As Central Bank Put Wanes

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 19:15 It would be hard for a year to start any worse than 2016 has... "Prices are oversold and sentiment hasn’t been this despondent in a long time (even Aug/Sept wasn’t this palpably negative) but any bounce will not be particularly impressive and in a lot of ways that is the main problem as the upside just isn’t compelling enough to make a major stand...as Western central banks attempted to mollify sentiment with dovish rhetoric but to no avail."

How QE Crushes The Real Economy & Why The Secular Low In Treasury Yields Lies Ahead

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 17:20 The economy was supposed to fire on all cylinders in 2015. Sufficient time had passed for the often-mentioned lags in monetary and fiscal policy to finally work their way through the system according to many pundits inside and outside the Fed. Surely the economy would be kick-started by: three rounds of QE and forward guidance; a record Fed balance sheet; and an unprecedented increase in federal debt to $18.63 trillion in 2015, a jump of 86%. Further, stock prices had gained sufficiently over the past several years, thus the so-called wealth effect would boost consumer spending. But the economic facts of 2015 displayed no impact from these massive government experiments.
 

Huge increase in U.S. families preparing for catastrophe as prepping goes mainstream

by Daniel Barker, Natural News:

Although some still regard prepping to be an activity favored by survivalist “wackos” who fear a cataclysmic Armageddon-style event, more and more American families are beginning to see the value in preparing for a number of possible scenarios in which the stockpiling of food, water and other essentials could prove to be a very wise investment.
The Oxford Dictionary defines “prepping” (in this usage of the term) as:
The practice of making active preparations for a possible catastrophic disaster or emergency, typically by stockpiling food, ammunition, and other supplies.
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"After Me, The Jihad," Gaddafi Tried To Warn The West, But Nobody Listened

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 21:30 The true Benghazi scandal indicts not just Hillary, but the entire Western power elite, whose wars have, as Gaddafi warned, flooded the world with a Jihadi Deluge and installed a postdiluvian Reign of Terror over us all.

CNN Reassures Investors: "Don't Panic... America's Economy Is Still In Good Shape"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 20:00

President Obama's Iran Policy Explained (In 1 Cartoon)

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 16:45 "Hands Up... Don't Nuke"?

The Deflation Monster Has Arrived

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 12:04 The world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.

How Did Americans Get So Fat, In Seven Charts

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 18:27 Americans are fat. They are so fat very few would even bother to click on a hyperlink in this article explaining how fat they are, so instead we will present 7 charts showing how the situation got so dire.

The Map That Will Change The Way You See The World

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 17:55 How do you view your country relative to others? Chances are if it’s based on most world maps, your view is distorted.

Too Many "Think Tanks" Are Just Kool-Aid Fueled Group-Think

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 16:10 Over the last 5 years the various Fed QE (quantitative easing) interventions into the capital markets has facilitated dumb luck trading into “genius” status, and no clue analysis into “spot on brilliant” prognostications. The real issue at hand is many believed their own press, and the current state of egg on their face would make many a Denny's blush. As bad as that sounds – it gets worse.

With Draghi On Deck, ECB Mulls Steps To Solve "Non-Existent" Bond Scarcity Problem

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 15:35 It’s nearly that time again. On the heels of December’s “big disappointment” wherein Mario Draghi cut the depo rate by a “measly” 10 bps and extended PSPP by an underwhelming six months, the ECB meets again next week, and this time around, expectations are low. But even if Draghi doesn't budge in January, most expect more easing is one the way. The only question is this: how will the Frankfurt cabal cope with the shrinking pool of purchase eligible assets?

The Great Unraveling Looms - Blame The 'Austrians'?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 15:00 Decades of accumulated market distortions appear to be on the brink of a great unwind, most of which can be blamed on expansionary monetary policies. If so, the banking crisis of 2008 was a prelude, rather than the crisis itself. The Keynesians will blame the Fed for a complete policy failure. The reality is, that by implementing conventional policies on the recommendation of group-thinking macroeconomists, the central banks have dug a hole too deep to escape. Recognition of the merits of Austrian sound money theory will simply expose this reality sooner than later.

Was That The Capitulation? Not Even Close

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 13:50 Is it different this time?

Exclusive: Dallas Fed Quietly Suspends Energy Mark-To-Market On Default Contagion Fears

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 14:21 The Dallas Fed met with the banks a week ago and effectively suspended mark-to-market on energy debts and as a result no impairments are being written down. Furthermore, as we reported earlier this week when first nothing the rumor, the Fed indicated "under the table" that banks were to work with the energy companies on delivering without a markdown on worry that a backstop, or bail-in, was needed after reviewing loan losses would exceed the current tier 1 capital tranches.

In Loving Memory of a Truth Warrior Taken Far Too Soon: Charlie McGrath

from Dokken Nelson Funeral Service:
Charles Thomas “Charlie” McGrath Jr., dedicated father, treasured friend and passionate activist passed away in the early morning hours of Saturday, January 9, 2016, at the age of 46.
On June 22, 1969, Charlie was born to Charles McGrath and Doris Roberts in Spearfish, South Dakota. In all, Charlie had twelve siblings but was Charles’ first son. Charlie’s early and teenage years were spent in Butte, Montana. He was a very curious boy, who may very well have taken the prize for most questions asked in a single day. He played little league baseball, loved to go fishing and hunting with his dad and had a talent for drawing, always having a sketch pad full of wildlife scenes. He attended high school dances and actually won his first car as a door prize at one dance.
After graduating from Butte High, Charlie enlisted in the U.S. Army in 1988. During his military career, he was stationed in Germany where he met his first wife Gabi. He later served in Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, earning the Southwest Asia Service Medal with two Bronze Stars.
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Another High-profile Global Vaccine Conspiracy Exposed — This Time It’s the HPV Vaccine

by Catherine J. Frompovich, Activist Post:
As a researcher who’s been tracking vaccine issues, including scientific hijinks, since the 1980s, I cannot express what a pleasure it is to report the following unfolding vaccine geo-political drama. This alleged conspiratorial action is about the fourth or fifth one to break into daylight.
Others include: the Simpsonwood Meeting [1] (June 2000); the Danish/CDC-paid vaccine researcher Dr. Poul Thorson who has been indicted for defrauding the U.S. CDC regarding research he produced from 2000 to 2009 [2]; the William Thompson, PhD, CDC epidemiologist who admits that CDC researchers deliberately omitted, and even trashed, incriminating data sets regarding vaccines impact on young black males under 3 years of age [3]; and let’s not forget a whistleblower lawsuit in federal court in Philadelphia, PA wherein two former Merck & Company employees claim Merck falsified efficacy rates for many years for the mumps active in its MMR vaccine [4].
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Rise of Constitutional Realities

from The Daily Bell:
President Obama’s amazingly emotional speech on gun control … President Obama delivered a deeply personal and emotional appeal to the country to help curb gun violence on Tuesday at the White House. For Obama, who is often criticized for his overly clinical approach to heated issues, his tone – sad and mad in relatively equal measure – was remarkable. Toward the end of his remarks, remembering the first graders who were the victims of a mass shooting in Newtown, Conn., Obama even wept briefly – a remarkable concession to emotion from this president. – Washington Post/AP
Dominant Social Theme: Because he is grieving, he can do what he wants.
Free-Market Analysis: Much has been made of President Barack Obama’s speech in early January on gun control.
The mainstream media consensus is that the president probably connected in this speech in a way that he hasn’t in previous speeches.
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Rise of Constitutional Realities

from The Daily Bell:
President Obama’s amazingly emotional speech on gun control … President Obama delivered a deeply personal and emotional appeal to the country to help curb gun violence on Tuesday at the White House. For Obama, who is often criticized for his overly clinical approach to heated issues, his tone – sad and mad in relatively equal measure – was remarkable. Toward the end of his remarks, remembering the first graders who were the victims of a mass shooting in Newtown, Conn., Obama even wept briefly – a remarkable concession to emotion from this president. – Washington Post/AP
Dominant Social Theme: Because he is grieving, he can do what he wants.
Free-Market Analysis: Much has been made of President Barack Obama’s speech in early January on gun control.
The mainstream media consensus is that the president probably connected in this speech in a way that he hasn’t in previous speeches.
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Amazon.com: Has The Bubble Finally Popped?

by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:

It’s good to no longer be a lone voice in the wilderness.  This latest commentary on the insane overvaluation of Amazon stock comes from Bill Bonner of Agora Research by way of the Acting Man blog:
Every AMZN bear has been made to look like an idiot – but that may soon change. As David Stockman recently pointed out, those who actually take the time to properly analyze its slippery accounting and business model (not the dead fish employed by the sell-side, obviously) cannot help but conclude that it is a giant Ponzi scheme – and the danger that this realization will penetrate the “market mind” is increasing. It remains a “river of no returns” – although consumers have every reason to love it. Investors buying it today pay 830 times net earnings for the stock – and said net earnings actually look somewhat dubious upon closer inspection.
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