Full Barroso, Van Rompuy Letter Begging For G-20 Money

With the question of who will fund the majority of the EFSF, or the €560 billion of the €1 trillion, still outstanding, and with China no longer the slam dunk "dumb money" everyone had expected it to be, Europe turns to the next biggest beneficiary of maintaining the ponzi - the entire G20 itself. Below is the letter just sent out from the two Eurostooges in which they make it all too clear that money talks, or Europe walks. "We will implement these measures rigorously and in a timely manner, and we are confident that they will contribute to the swift resolution of the crisis. However, whilst we in Europe will play our part, this cannot alone ensure global recovery and rebalanced growth. There is a continued need for joint action by all G20 partners in a spirit of common responsibility and common purpose." Too bad Bernie Madoff went to jail before he could send out comparable letters to his own investors who by implication would have become "voluntary partners" with a gun to their head.






THE UNFORTUNATE TRUTH ABOUT AN OVERBOUGHT STOCK MARKET

Posted by: ilene

Post date: 10/30/2011 - 02:03

In addition to the unknown factors impacting the European “solution”, next week the Federal Reserve will have their regular FOMC meeting and statement.

Never Act Upon Wishful Thinking

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago

“Never act upon wishful thinking. Act without checking the facts, and chances are that you will be swept away along with the mob.” - *in a Gift To My Children* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* 

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I Am A Great Optimist In Life

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago

Well, I think I'm very constructive and I'm a great optimist in life, otherwise I would commit suicide in view of the kinds of governments we have now-a-days. Because, for sure, they will take wealth away from the well-to-do people one way or the other, and from the middle class, they will take it away through inflating the economy and lowering the standard of living. - *in Beacon Equity* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*




Americans ‘Hooked on Government’ as Record Number Get Benefits  



Consumer Confidence Tumbles, Home Prices Stagnate 






All American Bank Fails; 2011 Tally at 85



Poll:  Many Boomers Staying Put Amid Bad Economy



New-home Sales Tick Up as Builders Slash Prices



Savers Protect Your Deposits from Bankrupting Banks and Quantitative Inflation



Tomorrow's EU Summit Meeting Cancelled; Gold and Silver Skyrocket on News



We Are Saved Again By More Paper Injection / Gold And Silver Rebound To Score Higher Levels


 
GDP Grew 2.5%, Boosted By Consumer Spending; No Double-dip



Five Ways the European Debt Crisis Could Affect the US



International Forecaster October 2011 (#9) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

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"We Are All Greeks" - SocGen Presents The New World Order

"We are all Greeks" - so begins one of the best reports on the unsustainability of the status quo, and on what "the new world order" will look like, created by SocGen's Veronique Riches-Flores. Her overarching observation: "No one can claim immunity from a Greek-style spiral" because "Our economies are mature, with weak potential GDP, especially post the financial crisis" and due to that old standby which everyone chooses so conveniently to forget, yet which is the biggest threat to the world's "welfare-state" stability, in existence since 1860 and which has been responsible for not only the longest period of peace in world history, but for the longest stealth plundering of middle-class wealth (there is indeed no such thing as a free lunch): "We are aging - we have no chance to see our future income improving substantially in the long run ; our savings capacities are shrinking and our health and pensions spending is increasing." That, in a nutshell, is it, no matter how many protracted essays one reads predicting the future (or war in Europe): the truth is there is increasingly less cash flow, coupled with increasingly more demands for cash.

Things That Make You Go Hmmm.... Such As An Empty Box Filled With Promises Of Money, And Europe's Soup Nazi

Some amusing weekend observations from TTMYGH's Grant Williams: "The EFSF is basically an empty box filled with promises of money - many of them from the very people who are most likely to need to borrow that same money. Should they need to borrow the money, they won’t be able to make good on their promises so there will be less money for them to borrow. Now the brain trust running Europe have decided, in their collective wisdom, to apply leverage to the non-existent money in the empty box that they have yet to actually borrow, so it can backstop even more of the hundreds of billions of Euros of sovereign debt issued by countries whose finances are in such dire straits that they either require the kind of robust growth that is hardly likely to materialize any time soon or the forgiveness by the holders of that debt of a large part of it....Of course, granting Greece the package they did this past week, the Eurocrats have rather incredibly found yet another corner into which to back themselves. You can hardly champion the ‘One Europe’ manifesto on the one hand but then, as the next country lines up at the counter, declare “No soup for you!” - but that seems to be the ‘plan’ at this stage."

The Age of Bank Failures

October 29, 2011, at 2:25 pm
by Greg Hunter 

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Dear CIGAs,

The U.S. stock market surged yesterday on news the European Union (EU) would deploy a two trillion euro rescue fund to help get its sovereign debt crisis under control.  This news was so good even battered Bank of America stock jumped more than 10%.  Crisis averted?  Hold on, not so fast.  Some big French banks are in trouble because they are up to their necks with sovereign debt.  Naturally, President Nicolas Sarkozy wants action now.  Yesterday, the Financial Times (FT.com) reported the French leader said, “. . . an unprecedented financial crisis will lead us to take important, very important decisions in the coming days.”  Raising the sense of urgency, the French president added: “Allowing the destruction of the euro is to take the risk of the destruction of Europe. Those who destroy Europe and the euro will bear responsibility for resurgence of conflict and division on our continent.” (Click here to read the complete FT.com story.) 
Jim Rickards of Tangent Capital says you have to distinguish between the bonds, banks and the euro.  He said recently in an interview on King World News, “The bonds are definitely going to crash and burn.  The bonds are toast. . . . The banks own the bonds, and if the bonds are toast, the banks are toast. . . . But that doesn’t mean the currency is toast.”  (Click here for the complete King World News interview with Mr. Rickards.)  Rickards expects the euro currency will survive, but many banks will not. 
Reggie Middleton of Boombustblog.com says the reason for the coming bank failures is simple—high debt loads.  Middleton says many European banks have 40 to 1 leverage.  He recently explained how dangerous this was by saying, “I take a dollar and I borrow $39, and I go out and buy something with it.  All you need is a 2% move to totally wipe you out—100%.  And we all know a lot of sovereign bonds have moved a whole lot more than 2%.” (Click here to see more of Middleton on the Boombustblog.com.)  Middleton is expecting more European bank runs as the crisis picks up speed.  
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Haynes, Norcini enthusiastic about immediate prospects for gold and silver

Philip Barton: How much gold stock is there really?

 

 

Silver Guru Eric Sprott talks shop concerning silver shortages & more! 

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Portugal Is Next: Improverished PIIG Demands US Assistance, Debt "Haircut" To Come Next

It has been just over 48 hours since our call that PIIGS the world over will scramble to demand the same concessions that were just granted to Greece courtesy of its economy being in the toilet and getting worse (thanks to lies to misrepresent the Greek economy as being worse than it really was). We already got Ireland yesterday. Now it is Portugal's turn. Reuters reports that "Portugal asked Mexico on Saturday to tell fellow G20 members next week that the United States should offer "financial help" to resolve the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, describing it as a "systemic and global" problem, a Portuguese government source said." Of course, the "US" is a clear proxy for "everyone else" - that the US, whose politicians can't agree on a fiscal stimulus for the US, let alone for some country by the straits of Gibraltar they have never heard of, will not move an inch to save Portugal is a given. Which means that once Portugal is, as it anticipates perfectly well, shut down by the US it will commence demanding for help from those who at least can grant it - the EMU and the Eurozone. And when those refuse, Portugal will do the glaringly obvious: take a page right out of the Greek textbook and proceed to suicide its own economy. And why not - it worked miracles for Greece. Now: two down and two to go. The only question is when does Italy do precisely the same logical next step, and tell the world that its $2+ trillion in debt, the second most in the Eurozone after only Germany, is unsustainable, and will need a modest haircut. 20% should do it. We wonder, what will that do to French banks (and their "perfectly hedged" US proxies - such as MF Global and others)?




Another Eurozone Country Bites the Dust

Posted by: testosteronepit

Post date: 10/29/2011 - 15:32

Real estate is Cyprus' national sport sponsored by dumb money—foreigners. But now it's unraveling the finances not only of expat owners but also of the banks and the government.

Xtranormal Explains The European Non-Bailout Best - With A Cartoon

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2011 - 18:45 While it is not the bears doing the explaining in this latest all too realistic summary of the European non-bailout, it is the next best thing.

Guest Post: One Way To Understand The EU's Inevitable Crash Landing: The Autopilot Analogy

Recent anecdotal evidence out of Asia suggests that the flight training received by some civilian airline pilots is based entirely on the aircraft's autopilot functions. Recall that an autopilot is a mechanical, electrical, or hydraulic system used to guide a vehicle without assistance from a human being. This deficiency in their training has been revealed in a most disconcerting fashion: when the aircraft's autopilot malfunctions, the pilots do not know how to actually fly the airplane. In other words, pilots are not actually trained to fly aircraft, i.e. to know how the aircraft responds in real time to actual human intervention/control; they're trained to monitor and manage the autopilot system which does the actual flying. This is a precise analogy for the European Union's leadership: they don't know how the financial system actually works, they only know how to follow the banking system's autopilot. Now that the financial system's autopilot has been fried, they are clueless and increasingly panicky: what does this lever do? Why is the stick so sluggish? We're losing power... there must be an auxiliary power switch, like in Star Trek... Good God, doesn't anyone know how to actually fly this thing? Sadly, the answer is no. The EU leadership, just like that of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government, only know how to blindly follow the system's autopilot program: increase leverage and debt, keep interest rates low so everyone (and every nation) with a pulse can increase their debt load, and let high-frequency trading (HFT) programs goose the stock market ever higher.

'Tis The Season For Seasonal Obfuscation

The headline GDP number was apparently enough growth to completely erase all thoughts of any renewed recession. However, most of us know that one quarter is not a trend and that the quarterly numbers are often statistically adjusted beyond something non-statistically meaningful. If we look at the headline numbers in sequence, it certainly seems that the economy is picking up from the weak first half. From these numbers it looks as if the economy slowed in the middle of 2010, hit a bottom in the first quarter of 2011, and has rebounded through the rest of 2011. I have little doubt that the economics profession has assumed a lagged effect from monetary stimulation, meaning the data largely confirms QE’s stated goals. From this interpretation, it looks as if Bernanke and his crew were exactly right to begin just when conditions were deteriorating and we are now set to bask in the successful afterglow of monetary intervention. A funny thing happens, though, when you remove the seasonal adjustments. This data presents an entirely different picture of the economy. From this point of view, GDP growth peaked toward the end of 2010 (just when QE 2.0 was announced) and has been decelerating ever since. The economy’s deceleration matches perfectly the increase in the price index, the BEA’s uneven proxy for inflation. Intuitively this makes far more sense, and from that we can draw far different conclusions about the efficacy of monetary interventions.

Forget The Unknown Unknowns: Just The Known Unknowns In The Eurozone Crisis Paint A Dismal Picture

While only the market, and no one else, seems to have a grasp on the unknown unknowns in the Eurozone crisis, and has voted two toes up, despite really having no clue what is coming for Europe, here is a report from Exclusive-Analysis that summarizes the known unknowns, and comes up with a bleak conclusion: "We remain very doubtful that the relative optimism that has followed the EU summit will last. Last time, the 10th of October, following a Berlusconi announcement of austerity in the previous week, it took markets only a few days to distinguish between the detail of what was agreed and the more optimistic  principles that were announced." So as everyone scrambles to figure out what is still missing from European bailout plan, perhaps focus on what is already present, because if that is any indication, the Thursday rally is nothing but yet another confirmation of just how broken the market as a discounting mechanism truly is.

2018: Europe At War

The date is October 29, 2018, and Britain faces its darkest hour. On the battlefields of Europe, our Armed Forces have been humiliated. In makeshift prison camps on the continent, thousands of our young men and women sit forlornly, testament to the collapse of our ambitions.From the killing grounds of Belgium to the scarred streets of Athens, a continent continues to bleed. And, in the east, the Russian bear inexorably tightens its grip, an old empire rising from the wreckage of the European dream. Yesterday, after a run of military defeats unequalled in our history, the Prime Minister offered his resignation. There is talk of a National Government, but no one has any illusions of another Churchill waiting in the wings. In suburban streets across Britain, old men and callow teenagers are digging defensive positions in the cold autumn air. But with equipment scarce and ammunition non-existent, the Home Guard would barely last a week. And all the time, across the Channel, enemy forces make their final preparations for the inevitable invasion. Some talk of surrender; no one speaks of victory. Less than ten years ago, millions still believed in a peaceful, united Europe. How did it come to this? When future historians look back on our humiliation, they will surely judge that the turning point was the last week in October 2011. Largely forgotten today, the main event was yet another interminable European summit in Brussels — the 14th attempt to ‘save the euro’ in just 20 months. Hoping to secure German support for a massive one trillion euro rescue package, Chancellor Angela Merkel gave her parliamentarians a chillingly prescient warning. ‘No one should believe that another half century of peace in Europe is a given — it’s not,’ she said. ‘So I say again: if the euro collapses, Europe collapses. That can’t happen.’ At the time, many observers scoffed that she was being absurdly melodramatic. But, seven years on, no one is laughing.

Guest Post: Mario Draghi, Hawk For Whom?

With ex-­?goldmanite ‘super mario’ at the helm of the ECB, expect more money printing, a two tier banking system, and a bigger role for the IMF. After 8 years of Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB gets a new face: the Italian Mario Draghi. From his recent statements in the press and elsewhere, many assume he will rather be a ‘hawk’ than a ‘dove’, meaning that Draghi will only print little money and will not lower interest rates aggressively. But a look into the past of this man makes us wonder: hawk for whom?





Food for thought

Posted by : Bruce Krasting

Post date: 10/29/2011 - 11:00

1/4 of us gets sick every year from the food we eat.

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The US Paper Dump Continues: Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund Sells All Of Its US MBS Exposure

Two days ago we noted that foreigners are selling US paper at a record pace, whether to raise capital in a locked out liquidity environment like French banks, or to make a politicial statement, like China. Today we get the first confirmation to this from Norway's Sovereign Wealth fund, best known for its prediction that it would buy and hold Greek bonds in perpetuity back in September 2010. Just recall: "Norway has taken the view that [Greek bonds] will not [default]. The Greek holdings are particularly interesting because the consensus in the market is that they will at some point restructure or default." Well, about a year later it is now official that the best the Norway SWF can hope for is a 50% recovery. So what does it do? It proceeds to dump US paper. Mortgage Backed Securities first. Because if it announced that a sovereign wealth fund instead of buying into the biggest ponzi ever, we finally defecting from it, then all bets would be of. Bloomberg reports: "Norway’s $570 billion sovereign wealth fund sold all its holdings in U.S. mortgage-backed securities as part of a shift of its fixed-income portfolio.“We’ve reduced our holdings of mortgage-backed securities,” he said. “MBS has been taken out of our internal policy benchmark. This means that we don’t have mortgage-backed securities issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae any longer." The stated reason for the dump: prepayment risk: "The debt was sold primarily because of the refinancing risk, he said. In the U.S., when a borrower refinances a mortgage it can cut short the maturity of the bond backed by the loan and reduce the expected interest over time, so-called prepayment risk." The real reason? Why shoring up capital of course. "The fund held 36 billion kroner ($6.6 billion) in bonds from Fannie Mae at the end of the second quarter and 11.5 billion kroner from Freddie Mac at the start of the year." And with the Fed telling us that almost $100 billion in US bonds and MBS having been sold in the past two months, one can be absolutely certain that i) it is not just MBS and ii) it is not just Norway.

Guest Post: Mario Draghi, Hawk For Whom?

With ex-­?goldmanite ‘super mario’ at the helm of the ECB, expect more money printing, a two tier banking system, and a bigger role for the IMF. After 8 years of Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB gets a new face: the Italian Mario Draghi. From his recent statements in the press and elsewhere, many assume he will rather be a ‘hawk’ than a ‘dove’, meaning that Draghi will only print little money and will not lower interest rates aggressively. But a look into the past of this man makes us wonder: hawk for whom?

Another Weapon for OWS: Pull Your Money Out of BofA

the link is here.

Bank of America, Chris Whalen...and King World News

the link is here.

 

 

 

William K. Black...OWS...and Arresting the Banksters

Bill says that the current crisis is about seventy times larger than the S&L debacle, yet nobody has gone to jail over it. This 3:54 minute must watch youtube.com video.

and the link is here.

A Letter from Goldman Sachs: Concerning Occupy Wall Street

The following is a letter released on October 17th by Lloyd Blankfein, the chairman of banking giant Goldman Sachs: Dear Investor:

Up until now, Goldman Sachs has been silent on the subject of the protest movement known as Occupy Wall Street. That does not mean, however, that it has not been very much on our minds. As thousands have gathered in Lower Manhattan, passionately expressing their deep discontent with the status quo, we have taken note of these protests. And we have asked ourselves this question:

How can we make money off them?

The answer is the newly launched Goldman Sachs Global Rage Fund, whose investment objective is to monetize the Occupy Wall Street protests as they spread around the world. At Goldman, we recognize that the capitalist system as we know it is circling the drain – but there’s plenty of money to be made on the way down.

 It's posted over at the borowitzreport.com website...and the link is here.

Could the Euro and Dollar Go One-to-One?

Saturday, October 29, 2011 – by Anthony Wile

Anthony Wile This is a funny question to ask given that the dollar is in the dumps and the euro has had a strong rally since the region's top Eurocrats "saved" the euro this week. But in Europe, where some DB elves are traveling and especially in Spain, those in the banking community – especially at the commercial banking level – are beginning to speculate that the euro and the dollar may eventually reach parity.
The elite's promotional media guns, of course, are aimed at assuring us once again that the euro-crisis has finally been contained. But given the difference between what the Anglosphere elites say and DO, I'd humbly submit that the crisis is nowhere near finished and that the real objective may be to unwind both Europe and America preparatory to creating the kind of full-blown chaos necessary to usher in a world currency. Stranger things have happened – and we do live in strange times these days.
Of course, I don't have any crystal ball. And betting on a market as large as the currency market is generally a fool's errand. But it's an interesting question nonetheless for those with a stake in the overall global financial system (that means almost all of us).
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Peter Schiff Schools Princeton University Professor Cornel West 'Big-Time'

Saturday, October 29, 2011 – by Staff Report

Libertarian financial tycoon Peter Schiff has done the free market yet another service by blasting socialist/communist Princeton Professor Cornel West virtually into the stratosphere with a brief debate moderated by CNN's Anderson Cooper on his "360" program.
Dr. West, a leading light of the progressive movement – someone who has worked for the most prestigious universities in the world – proved on-air that he didn't know the first thing about economic history and that his much-vaunted beliefs (endlessly quoted by the media) are based not on faulty analysis but simply on ignorance.
This cannot be denied. It is on video for anyone to see. One example is West's astoundingly ignorant claim that 1930's Depression in America was basically the result of the 1920s rampant capitalist speculation and greed.
Watch Video

Jim’s Mailbox

October 28, 2011, at 9:58 pm
by Jim Sinclair 

Hey Jim,

Oh, oh… it must be getting VERY close to game-over time for a central banker to be telling the truth!
"The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth." –Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, Nightly Business Report, 1994

Now if only Mr. Carney would be so forthcoming about the mobilization of Canada’s Gold Reserves, or rather Canada’s lack of them!

Best Wishes,
CIGA Mark

Bank of Canada Carney: QE’s stealth effect is a weaker currency
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said central banks have been less than forthcoming in admitting that one of the primary aims of quantitative easing is to weaken their foreign-exchange rates, remarks that will fuel a tense debate over the effect the Federal Reserve’s policies have had in stoking the currency war.
“The unspoken issue with quantitative easing writ large is the exchange rate channel,” Mr. Carney said Wednesday evening in New York at a conference organized by the Economist magazine.
“The one area where central banks maybe haven’t been quite as up front is (that) the fact is that when you quantitative ease, the portfolio-balance effect, which is the main transmission mechanism, operates through the exchange-rate channel, just as it does when you lower interest rates,” Mr. Carney continued. “That is part of the stimulus you get.”
With its benchmark interest rate near zero, the Fed has created dollars to buy financial assets worth about $2-trillion (U.S.) to keep downward pressure on borrowing costs. That policy also has contributed to a weaker dollar, which has been a boon for U.S. exporters — and an irritant for some U.S. trading partners, such as Brazil and South Korea, that have had to cope with rising currencies.
But Mr. Carney’s objective was not to criticize quantitative easing. He said Fed chairman Ben Bernanke “has delivered” and the heavy criticism he has received “appears unwarranted.” Mr. Carney said the Fed’s two asset purchase programs — commonly referred to as quantitative easing, or QE — have been a “net positive for Canada,” even though the loonie surged above parity with the U.S. dollar.
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The Governments, They’re Going To F— You All, That’s For Sure

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago

You should not only diversify your asset holdings, but also diversify where you hold those assets, in case they’re seized by politicians as the welfare state enters its death throes. The governments, they’re going to f— you all, that’s for sure. - *in CNBC* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*

Already troubles brewing with new European "Deal"/gold steady/ silver rise

Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 7 minutes ago

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen: Today will be very important with respect to Europe.  Take your time on all the big stories. Gold finished the comex session at $1646.20 down 1/2 a dollar on the day. Silver refused to buckle on the day as this poorer cousin of gold advanced 16 cents to $35.27  There are many developments at the comex that I wish to point out to you as you endeavor to purchase

 


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Still Work To Be Done In Silver?

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 14 minutes ago

Most likely. Commercial traders' (smart money) long and short postions showed massive long buying and short liquidation towards the end of the D-wave decline in 2008. This was the perfect money flow setup. A similar setup is underway in 2011. Massive short liquidation, defined by statistical concentration, will likely mark its end in 2011-2012. Silver London P.M Fixed and the Commercial Traders... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] more »

Keys To Success

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago

Jim Rogers' Keys to Success (taken from the titles and sub headings of each chapter of the new book, "A Gift To My Children"): 1. Do not let others do your thinking for you 2. Focus on what you like 3. Good habits for life & investing 4. Common sense? not so common 5. Attention to details is what separates success from failure 6. Let the world be a part of your perspective 7. Learn philosophy & learn to think 8. Learn history 9. Learn languages (make sure Mandarin is one of them) 10. Understand your weaknesses & acknowledge your mistakes 11. Recognize change & embrace it 12. Lo... more » 

 

Quantitative Easing!!!




Dollar Decline in Full Swing in Risk-On Environment 




Data suggests inflation on the way. 




Inflation Concerns Go Beyond Rise in Consumer Price Index 




Silver Waits To Begin Break-out




Gold Market Update




Inflation Up Globally




Claims For Unemployment Aid Dip But Remain High




Stocks Turn Mixed After Thursday's Big Rally




Incomes Stall as Interest on Savings Dwindles




Oil Prices Lower A Day After Big Gains




Late Night Deal In Brussels:  Euro Zone Frees Greece Of Half Its Debts



 
With The EU Plan Set:  Let The Doubting Now Begin




EU's Debt Deal Doesn't End The Crisis



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Eric Janszen: We Are Witnessing The Death Of The Dollar

What do you get when the producer of the world's reserve currency takes on too much debt? Nothing less than the end of the US Treasury-based monetary system. So says Eric Jansen, economic and financial market analyst and proprietor of iTulip.com. In chronicling the decline of the global economy over the past decade, Eric has formulated a framework called the "Ka-POOM" theory, which endeavors to understand how the immense run-up in global debt will be resolved. In short, it looks at the at the credit bubble that began in the early 1980's, started accelerating in 1995, and has now reached epic proportions. The amounts are so staggering at this stage that Eric believes it is too politically undesirable to let natural market adjustments clear them away - the magnitude of the deflationary pain this would create is simply unacceptable for politicians looking to get re-elected. The only other available option left is to service these debts via a dramatically devalued currency. Hence the key role the Fed is playing today. The Fed is at the epicenter of this process, intervening heavily to keep the natural corrective market forces at bay. In this, it has a dual strategy. The first is to keep asset prices high (i.e., fight asset deflation), which it is doing by keeping interest rates historically low. The second is to keep wage and commodity costs under control, which it primarily does via devaluing the currency (maintaining a "weak dollar"). And, of course, through its intervention, the Fed is doing all it can to keep the current financial system in place to perpetuate the process for as long as possible. The end result is a fundamental shift in risk from Wall Street to the taxpayer.

Germany "Raises" €55.5 Billion, or 1% Of Its Debt/GDP Ratio, Thanks To Derivative "Accounting Error"

As usual, the most surreal news of the day, perhaps week, is saved for Friday night, when we learn that Germany has magically raised over a quarter of its total EFSF obligation of €211 billion by way of what is essentially magic. The Telegraph reports that "Germany is €55bn richer than it previously thought because of an accounting error at state-owned bank Hypo Real Estate Holding. The mistake at "bad bank" FMS Wertmanagement, happened because collateral for derivatives wasn't netted between the asset and liability side, an FMS spokesman said. As a result, FMS will only contribute about €161bn to Germany's debt this year, down from €216.5bn in 2010." Another way of representing the error is that it is equal to a ridiculous 1% of the country's debt to GDP ratio. "Germany's 2010 debt-to-GDP ratio also drops, to 83.2% from the previous 84.2%, a finance ministry spokesman said." In other words, the modern world, best characterized by the imploding fiat ponzi, has discovered a way to raise capital (electronic, naturally) courtesy of CDS bookmarking errors. And now, we have seen it all.

Modest Late Day Excitement Tops Quiet Day

FX markets have pretty much trodden water for the last 24 hours with admittedly a small USD bullish bias providing little ammo for any correlation-driven risk-asset moves today. Credit markets did wonder gently up and down but ES was like a Parkinson's patient off his meds as it noisily whipped up and down in a small range generally tracking credit. Into the close HY and ES surged (on nothing except perhaps the EUR futures CoT data) as MF Global's stock price dived but HY managed to hold and close at its highs while ES pulled back modestly. IG didn't play into the late day exuberance and we suspect the HY shift is more index arb as intrinsics actually widened on the day and the index remains cheap. HY is still 'cheap' as a risk asset relative to equities which might explain some of the grab here into the close but with a weekend of uncertainty ahead, why not wait til Monday to add risk? Copper managed to rally from pre-open today as did oil marginally but Silver and Gold were unimpressive as they held gains (much as DXY was holding its losses on the week).

Dollar Bulls are Trapped if the RISK TRADES continue

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 3 hours ago

Take a look at the following Commitment of Traders chart detailing the huge number of speculators that are positioned on the Long side of the US Dollar. There was a large amount of talk about the Dollar embarking on a Bull market not all that long ago and that combined with the Flight out of the Euro sent huge numbers of these specs rushing into the Dollar. When the Europeans rained on their parade this week, the bottom dropped out of the Greenback as there was no one on the other side of the market to buy the Dollar from these specs who were all frantically selling it at the same t... more » 

 

Weekly Silver Chart

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 3 hours ago

Silver had a very impressive weekly performance gaining more than $4 for the week and managing to squeak out a close above the 50 week moving average. You will note that it still remains below both the 10 week and the 20 week moving averages which continue heading lower so silver is not out of the woods just yet. One would ideally want to see the metal get above both of these moving averages and see the shorter term 10 week turn higher. That would give us a shift from bearish to bullish on the WEEKLY CHART. Also, note that downsloping line drawn on the chart that comes in very close ... more » 

 

HUI technical chart

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 3 hours ago

The HUI put on a spectacular showing this week gaining more than 65 points and taking out several overhead resistance levels on its price chart in the process. The catalyst seemed to be the positive response by the broader equity markets to news coming out of Europe regarding their bank recapitalization plan and their funding of the Stability Mechanism. While I am personally repulsed by such actions the facts are that the hedge fund community could not wait for the ink to dry on the press release before they began pouring money back into the Risk Trades. The resultant rally in stock... more » 

Be Honest – The European Debt Deal Was Really A Greek Debt Default

Posted by : ilene

Post date: 10/28/2011 - 19:45

2012 looks like it is going to be an extremely painful year. 

 

 

 

 

Royal Canadian Mint offers its own convertible gold ETF

 

 

 

 

Duh, ya think? Canadian central banker says QE weakens the currency

 

 

 

 

Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: October 24-28

Your one stop, comprehensive summary of the main bullish and bearish events in the past week.

Quote Of The Week

Presented without commentary:

"The central irony of financial crisis is that while it is caused by too much confidence, too much borrowing and lending and too much spending, it can only be resolved with more confidence, more borrowing and lending, and more spending." -

Larry Summers, source

Sorry Yahoo, Hopefully Third Time Will Be The Charm

Next time Microsoft offers to buy you, you say yes.

• YAHOO SAID TO LEAN TOWARD DIVIDEND, BUYBACK INSTEAD OF SALE
• YAHOO SAID TO CONSIDER SELLING ASIA ASSETS ALONE

 That's right - another "take under." Sorry to anyone who bought this stock on a take out/13F clone play.





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"Adolf Merkel": Presenting The Greek Gratitude For The 50% Debt Haircut

One would think that considering that their debt, or rather about 60% of it, was haircut over the past 2 days, the Greeks would be grateful to Germany who not only orchestrated this transaction over the vocal protests of her French vertically challenged counterpart, but effectively has pledged a substantial portion of German GDP to preserve not only the Greek welfare state but soon that of all the other European countries. One would be wrong.

It's Not Over: EUR Shorts Barely Budge, Leading To Concerns For Another Levered Squeeze

Last week we warned of the possibility for a massive short squeeze melt up purely due to the fact that the most leveragable driver of the stock market, the EURUSD, had barely seen a change in net short positions despite recurring noises that Europe would somehow pull a magic money tree out of the hat and all should be well. Well, they pulled it, and the EURUSD soared over 300 pips. There is one problem, however: as the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders update indicates, there was barely any change in net non-spec EUR bearish bets which remained stubbornly fixed near the 2011 highs, at -76,512 contracts, just off the prior week's -77,720. Granted the USD net long dropped yet again, from 41,751 to 32,110 contracts. But the one all important driver for yet another potential squeeze has hardly budged. The one saving grace: this data is as of October 25, just before the massive rip started. As such it is possible that a substantial portion of these shorts has covered. Alas, we won't know until next Friday. By then, weak hand bears, spooked by merely the possibility of another ramp, will likely continue to cover into any even modest dip. It won't be until this total short position moves materially higher that the chance of any material downtick in the market will reappear.

White House Orders Review Of Energy Department Loans To Avoid Solyndra Subpoena And Exercising "Executive Privilege"

The Solyndra-gate scandal, which the GOP realizes has the potential to shake the Obama administration to the very top, refuses to go away. Earlier today AP reported that to a republican Subpoena demanding all documents instead of just those selectively produced, "could trigger a claim of executive privilege by the Obama administration and elevate the political stakes. The loan is being investigated by two House committees, which have released Solyndra-related documents from federal agencies including the Energy and Treasury departments and the Office of Management and Budget." The White House has refused a request by the House Energy and Commerce Committee for all internal White House communications about Solyndra. White House Counsel Kathryn Ruemmler said the committee leaders' request has implications for "long-standing and significant institutional executive branch confidentiality interests." Naturally: it would be a big hit to the presidency's interests if it was uncovered that crony capitalist vigilante #1 himself is more than willing to distributed taxpayer capital to the highest bidder. So instead the The White House is ordering a review of loan guarantees made by the Energy Department after a California solar company that got a half-billion-dollar federal loan went bankrupt. There are more than two dozen of these to a variety of clean energy companies." And here is where the latest joke from this president jumps the shark: "[White House chief of staff] Daley said he's tapping a former Treasury official to conduct the review." A former Treasury official... of the Obama administration?

Gold And US Dollar As Safe Havens

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 34 minutes ago

Capital will increasing seek safe havens of gold and the best looking horse in the glue factory – the US dollar as debt crisis worsen in Europe despite political assurance. That’s why the breach of the down 45 line in 2009 in the US dollar index has raised some eyebrows of concern. U.S. Dollar Index [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Guest Post: Performance Anxiety

Performance anxiety can, whether you're honest about it or not, cloud your decisions in this market. Do you cave to the relative performance derby in order to retain investors? Its a real issue if you've been on the wrong side of this market or any side for that matter. The volatility has made investors punch drunk. I'm talking about customers that say flat out: "If you don't get more invested, I'm pulling my account". How quickly they forget that 2 weeks ago they were of the opposite mindset. Let me share my story - as I'm sure there are a million like it. I've been receiving daily calls from an investor for the last 3 months (yes, I should have already fired him). We've been in 70% cash, which two months ago - in his words - enabled him to sleep at night. Now he can't sleep and is constantly hyperventilating at all the money he is "losing" by being under-invested. Cramer put him over the edge last night.

In The News Today

October 28, 2011, at 10:27 am
by Jim Sinclair in the category In The News |  Print This Post |  Email This Post

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This announcement seems to have had an impact as appliances speak so much to US basic economic conditions.

Whirlpool to cut 5,000 jobs to reduce costs By MAE ANDERSON
NEW YORK (AP) — Appliance maker Whirlpool Corp. plans to cut 5,000 jobs, about 10 percent of its workforce in North America and Europe, as it faces soft demand and higher costs for materials.
The world’s biggest appliance maker also on Friday cut its 2011 earnings outlook drastically and reported third-quarter results that missed expectations, hurt by higher costs and a slowdown in emerging markets. Shares fell 12 percent in premarket trading.
The company, whose brands include Maytag and KitchenAid, has been squeezed by soft demand since the recession and rising costs for materials such as steel and copper. Due to its size, Whirlpool’s performance provides a window on the economy because it indicates whether consumers are comfortable spending on big-ticket items.
Whirlpool has raised prices to combat higher costs, but demand for items like refrigerators and washing machines remains tight. Whirlpool is also facing discount pressure from competitors.
To offset slowing North American sales, Whirlpool has turned to emerging markets. But the company said Friday that sales have slowed there, too.
Steep costs and the dour global economy are affecting the entire appliance industry. Swedish appliance maker Electrolux said Wednesday that its third-quarter net income fell 39 percent and cut its forecast for demand in North American and Europe for the year
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is no tool in anyone’s toolbox to stop a financial run, no matter how camouflaged, except the utilization of QE to infinity.

Gold will be in the $2000s shortly.

Inside Deutsche Bank Debate on U.S. Sliding Into Japan Malaise 2011-10-27 16:07:08.82 GMT
By Vivien Lou Chen
Deutsche Bank AG (DBK)’s Ajay Kapur says the U.S. is sliding into an economic malaise similar to Japan’s so-called lost-decade of the 1990s. The Hong Kong-based strategist draws the parallel using similarities in demographics and financial-market performance.
Binky Chadha, head of the bank’s U.S. equity strategy team in New York, and Michael Biggs, one of its London-based economists, disagree, citing variations in the nations’ growth rates and credit demands.
The researchers aired their differences in a 28-page report Deutsche Bank released Oct. 17 and distributed to clients. The debate underscores the uncertainties facing the world’s largest economy. Fifty-six percent of respondents in a quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of 1,031 investors, analysts and traders said a Japan-like scenario is “very” or “fairly” likely.
The Deutsche Bank report “mirrors a similar discussion among policy makers at the Federal Reserve,” said Tim Duy, a former U.S. Treasury economist in international affairs who now teaches at the University of Oregon in Eugene. “How much of the current malaise will be relieved by traditional, cyclical forces versus the possibility of a much more protracted period of sub- optimal growth such as that experienced by Japan?”
Robert Feldman, head of Japan economic research at Morgan Stanley (MS) MUFG Securities Co. in Tokyo, said he thinks the U.S. is “a little bit less likely” to fall into Japan-like deflation “than pessimists think.” Fed officials “studied Japanese experiences very closely,” and “the right lesson they drew is you have to move quickly and very, very big.”
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

With allies like this who needs enemies?

US fury as Karzai backs Pakistan Last Updated: Thursday, October 27, 2011, 10:13
The Obama administration should rethink its commitment to the fight in Afghanistan, according to American politicians furious with Afghan president Hamid Karzai for saying his country would back Pakistan in a war with the United States.
Anger over Mr Karzai’s remarks is likely to surface today when US secretary of state Hillary Clinton testifies before the house foreign affairs committee, her first congressional appearance since her trip last week to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In an interview last weekend, Mr Karzai told a Pakistani TV station: “If fighting starts between Pakistan and the US, we are beside Pakistan. If Pakistan is attacked and the people of Pakistan need Afghanistan’s help, Afghanistan will be there with you.”
He said his government would not allow any nation, including the United States, to dictate its policies.
Those comments drew a sharp rebuke from members of US Congress, including some who have been strong supporters of the decade-plus war in Afghanistan.
Norm Dicks of Washington state, a senior Democrat, said: “Without the assistance of the United States, $468 billion from the United States Treasury and the supreme sacrifice of 1,820 American soldiers who have died during Operation Enduring Freedom, Afghanistan would still be ruled by a gang of Taliban thugs with few individual liberties and no popularly elected leaders.”
More…

James Turk reviews Jim Rickards' 'Currency Wars'

 

 

Kevin Michael Grace: Auguries -- What's behind door No. 3?

 

Trapped in Amerika
Slowly, as Americans are waking up to the fasco-communist police state that surrounds them and realize that the economy in the US will never recover until after the US dollar hyperinflates into worthlessness, we receive more and more emails with sad stories and desperate cries for help. Full Story



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Egan-Jones On The MF Global Endgame: "The Majors Will Pick Off MF Key Employees And Clients Will Flee"

A short, sweet and spot on summary of what is most likely going to happen to MF Global courtesy of the only rating agency worth listening to, Egan-Jones. "A race - the Company is in a race to re-establish its business while clients, employees, and its business position slides. The major issues are the real losses from poor investments in the EU, whether MF can attract interest in salable assets, and if interested buyers are willing to step up currently or wait until a transaction is potentially blessed by a trustee in a reorganization (in the case of the Lehman Brothers reorg, Barclays was confronted with a fraudulent conveyance issue). The most likely outcome is that the majors will pick off MF key employees and clients will flee. No news is bad news."

Did Primary Dealer MF Global Dump Its TSY Inventory And Exaggerate Thursday's Equity Rally?

We have often discussed the use of the Treasury 2s10s30s butterfly as a carry tool and it makes sense that primary dealers would proxy this in their inventories to earn a much more risk-managed carry than a simple curve trade from a net interest margin perspective. With MF Global drawing down its credit lines and facing immediate stress, it also makes sense that they would look to sell down any and every holding they had in order to show liquidity. In the 24 hours from mid-day Wednesday to mid-day Thursday the 2s10s30s butterfly experienced one of its largest ever shifts higher (unwinding the carry trade) at over 4 standard deviations and only matched by moves in Q4 2008 (LEH?). Equity markets tracked this massive and unending rise in 2s10s30s almost tick-for-tick which we think explains how such a no-news summit in EU can create such a massive move in US equities. Moreover, the attractiveness of the 2s10s30s butterfly is reappearing up here and it is compressing suggesting stocks have room to fall here.

The Global Moral Hazard Dawns: Merkel Says "It Must Be Prevented That Others Come Seeking A Haircut" As Ireland Cuts GDP Forecast

Just about 48 hours after it was duly noted as the greatest threat to the Eurozone in the post bailout world, Germany finally grasps the enormity of what global moral hazard truly means. As we said before, the biggest risk facing Europe, and by that we mean undercapitlized French banks (all of them) obviously, is not Greece or what haircut is applied to the meaningless €100 billion in Greek debt when all the exclusions are accounted for. It is what happens when everyone else understands they now have a carte blanche to pull a Greece at will. And while until now we had some glimmer of hope there was a behind the scenes agreement for this glaringly obvious deterioration to not manifest itself, Merkel just opened her mouth and proved our worst fears wrong. As Reuters reports, "Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Friday it was important to prevent others from seeking debt reductions after European Union leaders struck a deal with private banks to accept a nominal 50 percent cut on their Greek government debt holdings. "In Europe it must be prevented that others come seeking a haircut," she said." Too late, Angie, far, far too late. Because, just as expected, here comes Ireland and literally a few hours ago, launched the first warning shot that will imminently lead to what will be demands to pari passu treatment with Greece. Next up: Portugal, Spain, and, of course, Italy, which however won't be faking its own economic slow down.

Guest Post: What’s A Young Person Supposed To Do?

I can’t begin to describe how excited I am to be visiting Tokyo while the Japanese yen is at its all-time, historic high. My timing couldn’t possibly be worse. For reasons that are completely incomprehensible, the yen is still viewed as a stable ‘safe haven’ currency despite four completely hopeless black marks:
1) Japan’s public debt puts other bankrupt nations to shame. As a percentage of GDP (225%), Japan’s debt is more than twice as bad as the United States.
2) The political situation in Japan is anything BUT stable. Japan has blown through 6 prime ministers and 9 finance ministers since 2006. And every one of them was a failure.
3) Social demographics are a ticking time bomb. Both life expectancy AND average age in Japan are higher than just about anywhere else on the planet… and the country has neither the work force nor the financial resources to support the massive waves of retirees that are coming.
4) Oh yeah, Japan’s economy hasn’t actually grown in two decades. No biggie.
Despite these obvious headwinds, though, the market is telling us that Japan is the safe place to be right now. And as a result, prices here are just plain stupid.

S&P Issues Statement On EFSF, Says "Almost Certain" European Governments Would Support CDO

The first kicker in the just released S&P statement on the revised and AAA-rated EFSF is the following: "In our opinion, there is an "almost certain" likelihood that the EFSF's 'AAA' rated member governments would provide timely and sufficient extraordinary support to the EFSF if needed." So, uh, S&P is determining the fate of trillions worth of securities on the basis of a hunch, a whim, if you will. A strong one, but a hunch nonetheless. Swell. And the second kicker:  "If we lowered the ratings on one or more of the 'AAA' rated member guarantors, we would also likely lower the ratings on funding instruments that the EFSF had issued before the date of the downgrade, if the lower ratings on the member guarantor were to lead to less than 100% 'AAA' rated coverage for the relevant EFSF funding instrument." This, in the parlance of our times, is known as a springing downgrade, which sets off the kind of cataclysm that only AIG could achieve once the investing community realized it had a rating-based collateral schedule. So once again the fate of the free world depends on FrAAAnce. Swell².

Guest Post: Greek CDS Shennanigans

We now know that private holders of Greek bonds will be “invited” (seriously–this was the word used in the EU summit statement) to take a write-down of 50%–halving the face value of the estimated $224 billion in bonds that they hold. This will help bring the Greek debt-to-GDP ratio down from 186% in 2013 to 120% by 2020. The big question–apart from how many investors they will get to go along with this, given that they couldn’t reach their target of 90% investor participation when the write-down was only going to be 21%–is whether this will trigger a CDS pay-out. That this is even up for discussion is mind-boggling. These credit default swaps are meant to be an insurance policy in case Greece doesn’t pay the agreed upon interest and return the full principal within the agreed timeframe. If they don’t pay out when bondholders are taking a 50% hit then what’s the point? I call shenanigans. ISDA, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association that wrote the agreement governing most derivatives trades, states clearly that a Credit Event would be triggered under the type of haircut proposed…but only if this haircut is forced on all bondholders. And here’s where it gets interesting.

RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - Stocks, Bonds, FX – 28/10/11

Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 10/28/2011 - 11:59 RANSquawk

Leading Indicators Predict Another Fed Intervention (Or EPS Rediscovers Gravity)

For the last couple of decades, ECRI's leading indicators have provided a reasonable early warning for rising and falling forward EPS estimates. With the ECRI growth rate hovering near the July 2010 lows, having fallen considerably recently, it seems that either intervention (the new normal) will come in the form of QE3 (as it did the last time we were here in Q3 2010) or EPS estimates will start to collapse notably (in line with yesterday's perspective on the rolling-over of forward EPS expectations).

Guest Post: Want a Truly Healthy Housing Market? Here Are the Five Essential Steps

Everyone exposed to losses in the corrupt, speculative apex of malinvestment known as the U.S. housing market doesn't want a truly healthy housing market, they just want a return to the bubble era. Sorry, folks, ain't gonna happen. (And yes, I own property, too, but it is what it is.) Bubbles do not reinflate, even with the Fed chanting its Keynesian Cargo Cult mantras ("zero interest rates forever!") and waving dead chickens over the embers. The conditions which inflated the bubble cannot be called up by incantations; faith in the system has been destroyed, and only the complete socialization of the mortgage market by the forces of Central Planning--the Fed and the Federal government's Socialized Mortgage Makers, Fannie and Freddie-- have staved off the complete collapse of prices which would have wiped out the banks and cleared the market via actual capitalism in practice, i.e. a transparent marketplace which is allowed to discover price. Despite the fact that a truly healthy housing market is anathema to the Status Quo and current property owners sitting on huge mortgages, let's lay out the necessary characteristics of such a housing market. A lot of this will strike many of you as counter-intuitive, but that only highlights the pervasiveness of the speculative propaganda that slowly hollowed out our culture's previous understanding of housing and replaced it with a devilishly magnetic financialization model.

Grade 3 Math Assignment

Here is the basic problem and why Italian and Spanish bonds are getting crushed again today (ignoring horrific unemployment data out of Spain). If Italy defaults with a 40% recovery, there is 1.613 trillion euro of debt affected (that is up about 10 billion in about a month). That means creditors would lose 970 trillion. Spain with 663 billion would cost almost 400 billion (its debt has shot up about 15 billion in a month). The problem is that EFSF doesn't take default off the table. It may delay the time to default (by helping roll debts as they mature), but all it mainly does is shift who would take the loss. The guarantors can't handle losses that big. There is no "ideal" solution because the problem is just an order of magnitude too large to provide any real help. Either the economies are going to get to balanced budgets (some combination of growth and cuts) or it will fail. Will EFSF do enough to see if the economies can get there?

Renting: The New Buying; A Primer On Housing 2.0

Wondering why the future for housing as an asset is so bleak, why median housing prices continue to tumble and recently saw their biggest three month drop ever, and why there is no bottom in sight? Simple: the American public appears to have woken up to the reality that homes are no longer a flippable asset, and in fact continue to drop in price, an observation that is obvious to virtually all now. So what happens next? Why renting of course. Here is Morgan Stanley explaining (granted in a pitchbook for REITs but the underlying data is quite useful) why the Housing 2.0 paradigm is all about renting.




Europe Will Make Lehman Look Like a Joke

Posted by: Phoenix Capital...

Post date: 10/28/2011 - 10:21

Do you really think Europe, which is even MORE insolvent that the US, is somehow going to experience a different ending from the Bazooka move? They’re in far, FAR worse fiscal shape that the US was... 

 

 

 

 

On Challenges To The Mainstream Financial Channels, BofA's (In)Solvency, CDS and Long-Only Pundits Dominating the MSM

Posted by : Reggie Middleton

Post date: 10/28/2011 - 10:14

Lauren Lyster, the enticing Russian TV/Capital Accounts host gave me the rare opportunity yesterday to sit down & run my mouth for 15 minutes straight. This format's most conducive to true... 

 

 

 

 

The Political Revolution Will Not Be Televised

Posted by: RickAckerman

Post date: 10/28/2011 - 11:15

No one questions that “something” is brewing, or rather simmering beneath the surface in America. The discontent, having finally reached the heretofore silently and sublimely disaffected youth who... 

 

 

 

 

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