Friday, August 28, 2015

The Investor Revolt Arrives: This Hasn't Happened Since Q4 2008




Given Monday's flash-crashing mayhem, and given how predisposed household investors are to mistrust Wall Street in the post-crisis, post-Flash Boys world, retail outflows during uncertain times shouldn’t come as a surprise, but as Credit Suisse notes, something happened in July and August that hasn’t happened since Q4 of 2008...

Where’s the Hyperinflation? Guess What, It’s Coming – John Williams Interview, ShadowStats.com

from VisionVictory:





Gold Surges On NIRP Hint

The Fed's ultimate dove has been unleashed and this time he means business. Faced with the inevitable rate hike, Kocherlakota has come out swinging to explain how cataclysmic inflation is and why The Fed should use its asset-purchase tools and lower interest rates further... i.e. to negative... Gold reacted instantly...



"Total Capitulation" - Biggest Weekly Equity Outflow On Record

If anyone was curious why the Fear and Greed index is at 13 (up from 5) despite the biggest 2-day surge in the Dow Jones ever, the answer is very simple: nobody believes the "broken market "any more, as confirmed by the biggest weekly equity outflow on record.



S&P 500 Suffers 'Death Cross' For First Time In 4 Years

This is the first time that the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average since August 2011, creating the ominous-sounding "death cross." The month following this 'event' has produced negative returns 80% of the time...



Traders Are Panic-Buying Colombian Pesos

In the last 2 days traders have bought Colombia Pesos with both hands and feet, sending the currency soaring almost 5% higher. This is the biggest 2-day gain since 2010...





What China's Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse

The size of the epic RMB carry trade could be as high as $1.1 trillion. If China were to liquidate $1 trillion in reserves (i.e. USTs) in order to stabilize the yuan in the face of the carry unwind, it would effectively offset 60% of QE3 and put around 200 bps of upward pressure on 10Y yields. So in effect, China's UST dumping is QE in reverse - and on a massive scale.
 

Europe in free fall

from The Vineyard of the Saker:

Europe is in free fall. Nobody can doubt that any more. In fact, the is EU simultaneous suffering from several crucial problems and any one of them could potentially become catastrophic. Let’s look at them one by one.
The 28 member EU makes no economic sense
The most obvious problem for the EU is that it makes absolutely no economic sense. Initially, in the early 1950s, there was a small group of not too dissimilar nations which decided to integrate their economies, these were the so-called Inner Six who founded the European Community (EC): Belgium , France , West Germany , Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. In 1960 this “core group” was joined by seven more countries, the Outer Seven, who were unwilling to join the EC but wanted to join a European Free Trade Association (EFTA). These are Austria , Denmark , Norway , Portugal , Sweden , Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Together these countries formed what could loosely be called “most of western Europe”. For all their faults, these treaties did reflect a reality – that the countries participating in them had much in common and that their peoples wanted to join forces.
Continue reading Europe in free fall



The Only Thing That Was Preventing A Rate Hike, Just Flashed A Rate Hike "Green Light"

The relief rally from the market drop that resulted over fears of a Fed rate hike, has pushed financial conditions back to a level which allows the Fed to hike again, which in turn means the market can drop again having risen enough to allow the Fed to do what it has done.



Treasury Yields Are Tumbling

After 3 days of carnage and a day of stability, it appears the death of the bond bull market has once again been greatly exagerated. Whether it is China's absence after a strengthenig in the Yuan overnight or month-end rebalancing amid equity vol, Treasury yields are notably lower this morning...

Charles Schwab Breaks: "System Is Temporarily Unavailable"





Personal Spending Misses Expectations By Most Since January, Income Juiced By Government Handouts

While the headline spending and income data consists of marginal moves, personal spending missed expectations by the largest amount since the dismal weather-strewn days of January. Consumption rose 0.3% in July, less than the 0.4% expectation and flat from the 0.3% June print. Income rose 0.4% - in line with expectations - ticking up YoY to 4.3% 0 juiced by a $13 billion government transfer receipts print - the most since March. The savings rate ticked up once again as those darned consumers refuse to spend as the elite demand.




The Financial Times Demands End Of Cash, Calls It A "Barbarous Relic"

Earlier this week, as the financial world was mesmerized by a min-stock market crash, the Financial Times published a dastardly little piece of fascist propaganda titled, The Case for Retiring Another “Barbarous Relic.” When you start to see increased propaganda about banning cash, you know the status quo is very scared and things are getting very serious. You’ve been warned.



Chinese Stocks To Plunge Another 35%, BofA Says

"As soon as people sense the government is withdrawing from direct intervention, there will be lots of investors starting to dump stocks again."

Stocks Crashed the Last Two Times This Happened

from Wolf Street:

“Your largest wealth creator for the top end has been inflation in financial assets,” Charles Peabody, a bank analyst at Portales Partners, told the Wall Street Journal. “You’re now seeing wealth destruction,” he said.
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 soared nearly 4%, its largest percentage gain since 2011, after having spent a whopping two days in a correction, its first since 2011.
On Monday, I’d written, “We’re expecting a rally topped off by a majestic short squeeze in the near future.” And we’re getting that. But the index is still down 5.8% year-to-date, and 3% for the 12-month period. Quite a change from the relentless double-digit uptrend of the past several years.
Read More

Frontrunning: August 28


  • Stock Halts Added to Monday’s Market Chaos (WSJ)
  • Fed Up Investors Yank Cash From Almost Everything Just Like 2008 (BBG)
  • Drop in Stock Futures Signal Halt to S&P 500's Relief Rally (BBG) - at least until the BOJ ramps USDJPY up again
  • Hacker Killed by Drone Was Islamic State’s ‘Secret Weapon’ (WSJ)
  • Greece's Syriza to win election but face setback, poll shows (Reuters)
  • Puerto Rico Spends More Than $60 Million on Debt Restructuring (BBG)



The Complete Jackson Hole Schedule

Over the past several years, the two-day Jackson Hole symposium had garnered a particular prominence among economists and market watchers as this is where various key inflection points by the Fed were hinted, leaked or announced, including QE2, QE3 and the taper. This year, however, the gathering of central bankers in Teton County, will be less exciting due to the absense of the most important central banker in the world: Janet Yellen, which means the highlighter will be Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer when he speaks tomorrow at 10:25pm  which will be a key event given the recent market turmoil.



China Surge Continues, Futures Slide As Jittery Market Looks For Jackson Hole Valium

Overnight's start attraction was as usual China's stock market, where trading was generally less dramatic than Thursday's furious last hour engineered ramp, as stocks rose modestly off the open only to see a bout of buying throughout the entire afternoon session, closing 4.8% higher, and bringing the gain over the last two days to over 10%. This happens as China dumped a boatload of US paper to push the CNY higher the most since March, strengthening from 6.4053 to 6.3986, even as Chinese industrial profits tumbled 2.9% from last year: this in a country that still represents its GDP is rising by 7%. Expect much more Yuan devaluation in the coming weeks.



Refugees Expose Europe's Lack Of Decency

The EU doesn’t seem to have any idea what’s causing the wave of refugees entering ‘its’ territory. When the refugees themselves state “we’re here because you destroyed our countries”, Brussels will simply say that is not true. That kind of admission is way beyond the consciousness of the ‘leadership’. But it’s a denial that won’t get them anywhere. The refugee issue can and will not be solved by the EU, or inside the EU apparatus, at least not in the way it should. Nor will the debt issue for which Greece was merely an ‘early contestant’. The EU structure does not allow for it. Nor does it allow for meaningful change to that structure. It would be good if people start to realize that, before the unholy Union brings more disgrace and misery and death upon its own citizens and on others.

Big Market Crash Coming, Will Biden Challenge Clinton, Dems for Iran Nuke Deal

from USA Watchdog:


To say the stock market was on a roller-coaster ride this week is an understatement.
Already, some are saying this action is just a blip. They say it’s a buying opportunity. They say it’s a correction and nothing more. My sources say none of that is true, that this is just the warm-up act of a much bigger downturn. Charles Nenner told me this is just the pre-crash. The big crash is coming. Gregory Mannarino of TradersChoice.net, who called the top in this market more than 2,000 points ago, says market crashes are not a one and done event but a process. He says the 2008 meltdown started in September and didn’t finish until March of 2009. It only ended with massive QE and money printing and suspension of accounting rules by FASB. Fast forward to today, and we have reports of China selling U.S. debt (Treasuries) because China’s markets are in turmoil. In simple terms, they need the cash to try to stabilize their markets. ZeroHedge.com is reporting that when China sells Treasuries, it is really QE or money printing in reverse. It is reported that if China sells enough Treasuries, it could spike interest rates. Funny, former Fed Head Alan Greenspan also recently warned that a bond bubble could explode and spike interest rates. What happens if every other country sells a chunk of the more than $16 trillion of liquid U.S. government debt all at the same time? This is the scenario economist John Williams has been warning against and will be here for an update next week.
Read More

Currency War Escalates as China Sells Billions of U.S. Debt!

from The Money GPS


Do You Take Your Financial Advice From The Same Morons Who Thought China Had A Solid Economy?

from Western Journalism:
So here’s a question for the Masters of the Universe who think they run our economy.
Which of you morons pinned our so-called economy to China’s growth prospects?
Was it the same clown who told hedge funds in 2004 that they should invest in companies which loaned people making $50,000 a year in Las Vegas $400,000 to buy a $100,000 house for $380,000?
Or, perhaps it was the same genius who said that after we sell these putrid mortgages to stupid rich people, we’ll sell other, slightly smarter, rich people a new security based on a bet that those putrid mortgages will not be paid?
Read More

Benghazi attack could have been prevented if US hadn’t ‘switched sides in the War on Terror’ and allowed $500 MILLION of weapons to reach al-Qaeda militants, reveals damning report

from Daily Mail:
The Citizens Commission on Benghazi, a self-selected group of former top military officers, CIA insiders and think-tankers, declared Tuesday in Washington that a seven-month review of the deadly 2012 terrorist attack has determined that it could have been prevented – if the U.S. hadn’t been helping to arm al-Qaeda militias throughout Libya a year earlier.
‘The United States switched sides in the war on terror with what we did in Libya, knowingly facilitating the provision of weapons to known al-Qaeda militias and figures,’ Clare Lopez, a member of the commission and a former CIA officer, told MailOnline.
She blamed the Obama administration for tacitly approving the diversion of half of a $1 billion Qatari arms shipment to al-Qaeda-linked militants.
Read More

Rosenthal: ‘Hundreds of white people must be killed for gun laws to get stricter’

from Daily Shooter, via 21st Century Wire.com:
Does the gun violence issue really have to do with race?

John Rosenthal
is the founder and chairman of Stop Handgun Violence, a Boston-based 501c3 non-profit organization that, “Works to reduce and prevent injuries and deaths caused by firearms in the United States. The group advocates personal responsibility, public awareness, stronger legislation, increased gun manufacturer responsibility, and strict law enforcement.”
In the interview below, it’s clear that Rosenthal (pictured above) is attempting to make ‘gun control’ and ‘mass-shooting’ issues about race in America – characterizing it as a primarily a “white problem”. This heavily politicized approach could be very misguided indeed, as it completely avoids the individual attributes of the majority of gun-related incidents which take place – which is black-on-black violence which is concentrated in America’s urban areas.
Read More

The Illusion of Certainty

by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls:
If you read and understand the principles contained in the discussion below, you will have learned important principles of analysis which will raise your “IQ” by at least 10 points, because these are analytical principles which virtually no one around you has even heard of — not even most of our Overlords. Of course the concept of an “intelligence quotient” is, itself, another illusion, but that is the subject of an entirely separate analysis…
This was taken from a discussion on an earlier thread:
Though looking at the Big Picture (the long term) we can clearly see the overall strategies of the banksters. The patterns are unmistakable, which is the beauty of Big Picture-analysis. It is impossible to hide one’s strategies from anyone looking closely at the Big Picture, and possessing at least decent analytical skills. This is why when I reach my own conclusions here (unlike most other commentators) I am completely unequivocal. I don’t say I “think” something is taking place. I say I know it is happening. The Big Picture doesn’t lie.
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China’s Ownership of U.S. Government Debt Peaked in 2013

by Terence P. Jeffrey, CNSnews:
Although entities in mainland China remained the largest foreign owners of U.S. government debt, according to the latest data published by the U.S. Treasury Department (which ran through the end of June), Chinese ownership of U.S. government debt peaked in November 2013.
As of the end of June, according to data the treasury released on Aug. 17, entities in mainland China owned approximately $1,271,200,000,000 in U.S. Treasury securities.
However, that was down $45,500,000,000 from the approximately $1,316,700,000,000 in U.S. Treasury securities the mainland Chinese owned at the end of November 2013, when Chinese holdings of U.S. government debt peaked.
Read More


If you think that burger tastes like shit...You're probably right...

Mmm, Tasty! Almost all Ground Beef is ‘Contaminated with Fecal Matter’

by Julie Fidler, Natural Society:
The next time you throw a thick, juicy burger on the grill, keep this in mind: almost all ground beef on the market is contaminated with dangerous fecal matter. The news comes as researchers find horse meat and other undeclared species in products labeled ‘ground beef.’
Thank Consumer Reports for this stomach-turning piece of news. Their investigators recently gathered 300 packages containing 458 pounds of ground beef purchased at stores in 26 cities and found that every single one contained fecal contamination.
Read More

This Is Why McDonald’s Will Go Bankrupt — Anthony Gucciardi

from Anthony Gucciardi:


Anthony Gucciardi breaks down how the fast food giant McDonald’s will continue to lose profits if they don’t change their ways.

As The Collapse Approaches The US Government Pushes The Gun Control

from X22Report:


Unlike Confederate Flag, Liberals Won’t Ban Gay Flag Linked to WDBJ Shooting

Rainbow flag found in shooter’s apartment
by Kit Daniels, Infowars:
Unlike the Confederate flag, leftists aren’t calling for a ban of the gay flag linked to WDBJ shooter Vester Lee Flanagan.
Police reportedly confiscated a gay pride flag from Flanagan’s apartment on Wednesday, but in an example of hypocrisy, this hasn’t sparked outrage from liberals who wanted to ban the Confederate flag due to its association with Charleston, S.C. church shooter Dylann Roof. “Libs got the Confederate flag taken down in South Carolina,” blogger Dave Blount pointed out. “They have imposed a de facto ban throughout the country through their control of major retailers like Walmart, Amazon, eBay, Sears, etc.”
“The show The Dukes of Hazard has been taken off the air because it features the flag on the roof of a car.”
Read More…

CAUTION: Top Analyst Warns Dow To Plunge Below 14,300 Within 5 Weeks!

from KingWorldNews:
What we’ve seen today and over the course of this week is signaling that we may have put in the blowout low in the oil price. We’ve been focused on whether this pattern was like 1986 or 1998.
The current action makes it look much more like 1998, and if that is the case then we should be putting in the low here. And if one looks back historically, it would be quite credible that we could see the oil price surge back to the $62.50 level and possibly even higher if we break decisively above that level.
Oddly enough, this pattern looks very similar to what we saw back in 1998. Both the weekly and the monthly moving average setups that we see today are very similar to what we saw back then.
Fitzpatrick continues @ KingWorldNews.com





Posted at 10:42 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.
Dear CIGAs,
Two weeks back I asked the question whether or not the “Final War” had started, between the EAST AND WEST. I was called a number of politically incorrect names for suggesting the Tianjin explosion might have been an “attack” and took even more heat,… because I included the word “nuclear”. Since then there have been many theories as to what happened, some of them pretty far fetched. Yesterday another article was published in Veterans Today, http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/08/25/confirmation-tianjin-was-nuked/ which scientifically suggests the explosion was in fact “nuclear.” I am inquiring as to whether the science used as proof is in fact sound. In the meantime, I would like to hear from readers why or why not the science used in this article is correct or is not. Please do not send me “opinion” or tell me Veterans Today is a poor source. Please specifically attack the science!
I would like to use the Tianjin explosion as a mid point in my review of what happened before and since the tragic event. Prior to the Tianjin explosion, China announced they had accumulated 600 more tons of gold over the last 6 years. On the face of it; this number is clearly bogus as China mines 400 tons per year and none of this product leaves their border for export. I termed this 600 tons….a “polite number”. Seemingly, the number was enough to demand a place at the IMF table but not enough to be a threat to the “sacrosanct” 8,133 tons the U.S. claims. This was followed almost immediately by the IMF announcing it would review China’s inclusion in the SDR in another 9 months. Just two days later China began a series of three yuan devaluations, on day two the Tianjin explosion occurred.
Since then, China announced another 19 tons of gold accumulated. One week later the chemical explosion in Shandong destroyed one of China’s main trading cities (this chemical explosion looked nothing at all like Tianjin). Yes, I understand, different chemicals explode differently but the videos clearly look like fuel ordnance. Coincidentally, two days after the Shandong explosion… a U.S. munitions depot in Tokyo exploded. Maybe I have been sleeping or just haven’t been paying attention but when was the last time a U.S. munitions depot exploded by accident?
As we know so well; over the last two weeks, the chaos in global markets finally reached the shores of Manhattan. Market chaos, that had previously been quite widespread and headlined by China, finally gripped U.S. markets. Now we find out China has exited over $100 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds in just the last two weeks and has indicated it is dumping more through Belgium and elsewhere.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-27/its-official-china-confirms-it-has-begun-liquidating-treasuries-warns-washington. We knew they had been selling over past months to the tune of nearly $150 billion, but $100 billion compressed into just two weeks is mammoth! I would also add “smart” because China did this selling while fear capital was clamoring to seek “safety” in risk free U.S. Treasuries. China traders appear to have effectively used the fear bid to their advantage as an exit. Please note I wrote “two weeks” several times above. Is it just coincidence Tianjin experienced the explosion “two weeks” ago?
A total of $250 billion worth of Treasury bonds have been sold, what does this imply? The T-bond selling appears to indicate a number of things, with possible multiple ramifications. First and foremost it says “they are not buying”! Of course the next logical questions follows;….”who” will step in to fund the U.S. deficits now that China has turned from buying to selling…In China they call it a Yin Yang. Also, who will the buyers be if China keeps selling? The logical conclusion; after answering the two above questions is…. “the Federal Reserve.” The follow on question is; will the Federal reserve need to commence another round of stimulus, QE 4 and more?
No matter how you look at China’s current financial position and about face, they will clearly no longer fund U.S. budget deficits in the foreseeable future. This leaves us with the misunderstood truth “the Federal Reserve is THE Buyer of last resort.” Worse yet; the Emerging Markets have had to jump the gun and have already started to unload U.S. Treasury’s as their currency falls to reflect lower trade and China’s devaluation of the Yuan.
Apparently, the U.S. has now crossed the Rubicon of sorts and will be forced to “print” deficit spending as a last resort. It is called MONETIZATION and has ALWAYS led to hyperinflation with existing “paper currency” becoming diluted and ever more worthless. The current situation is far more troubling and far reaching than any before it, because the entire world will be fearing a dilution of their “reserve base.” Dollar instruments (U.S. Treasury issues, etc.) are held by nearly ALL central banks and act as a foundation for all other fiat currencies, “infecting balance sheets all over the world.” For what ever reason; I would call a run from the Dollar “a plague,” but in fact, the situation is more like an infestation, the effects of a diluted dollar could well be… far more than any plague in history.
I would like to ask you a few questions. Is there any way you can look at the chronological events over the last month and not conclude they are connected? Is it not clear China/Russia and the U.S. are in a trade, currency, military confrontation, one that might lead to a shooting war? Even the mainstream media reports on U.S. spying and SinoRuso hacking. The West, led by the U.S. have evolved entirely into a “credit based” society …funded in large part by China. Can you look at China’s sales of Treasury securities and say they are not pulling the credit plug? Can you in any way, from a U.S. standpoint, say this is beneficial, or helpful to the U.S.? Or, might it be overt financial war?
China is building military bases throughout the Pacific on man made islands and telling the U.S. to mind their own business, in spite of Pres. Obama’s pivot to the Pacific. The U.S. and NATO are amassing troops and hardware on Ukraine’s border. On the other side Russia is doing likewise. Now we are seeing aerial attacks in Syria, etc. John Kerry has even said; ” If the U.S. does not ratify the deal with Iran, the dollar will lose it’s reserve currency status.” He said this because five nations in Europe have already agreed and sent delegations to Iran to open trade channels. Would this not isolate the U.S. further in energy, trade and finance? As for the series of explosions, could they be coincidence? Yes. Do you believe they are? Or,.. maybe “too coincidental?”
Are there too many coincidental technological, financial and geopolitical dots lined up to come to any conclusion other than we are already in the early stages of war? I believe this is in fact the case. I still believe the Chinese would prefer to “win” via financial means, rather than physical means, but this remains to be seen. Would a ” 9/11 truth bomb,” which is now rumored more often out of Russia, be another way to neuter American hegemony without military use?
As a final thought, I believe global markets are beginning to discount or recognize the war behind the scenes. This is the reason for the chaos in equity and credit markets. Can you imagine what it looks like behind the derivatives curtain? Guaranteed;…. there are dead bodies strewn all over,… with no ability to perform or settle. When history looks back upon August 2015, I believe the consensus view will agree THE WAR had already started!
Standing watch,
Bill Holter
Holter -Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome! bholter@hotmail.com
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