Friday, April 1, 2016

"Maced Girl" Who Punched Trump Supporter May Be Charged By Police







Verge Of Revolution: The Story You Aren't Being Told About The Brazilian Uprising

While Brazilians are angry and tired of their economic hardships, they are also incensed at the country’s history of corruption, which now includes a massive presidential scandal carried out by politicians and lobbyists during the current and previous administrations. This misconduct has given residents of all walks of life enough incentive to take their demands to the streets. Mainstream media has covered the major protests overtaking the streets of Brazil at the outset of an apparent political revolution, but few discuss the problems that have been brewing for decades in South America’s largest nation.



Who Needs Helicopters? Draghi Plans "Fool-Proof" ECB-Backed Debit Card

Yesterday’s leaks confirm the ECB’s plans will effectively give Europe’s consumer lenders access to unlimited zero-cost finance – going far further than the free money showered on them by the multiple previous TLTRO financial packages. Under the proposed scheme, European banks have the option to issue their clients a new branded European Banking Union debit card.



What Happens Next?

"Decoupled"...



Why One Economist Doesn't Believe The March Jobs Number

Despite a lackluster holiday sales season and massive big box store closures, despite major 1Q hiring companies like Home Depot reporting flat hiring plans, the BLS model reports 181K payrolls added in 1Q 2016. To put that into context:Best 1Q ever; Better than the entire annual Retail payroll growth for 2014; 2/3s the level of 2015



JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Rothschild Yanked Into Probe Of Goldman-Backed Malaysian Slush Fund

When last we checked in on the 1MDB saga, Goldman was busy tying up a few loose ends. Tim Leissner, the banker who built the firm’s Southeast Asia operation from the ground up and the man behind a series of questionable deals that funded what would eventually become Malaysian PM Najib Razak’s personal slush fund, was essentially forced out in January, after bank investigators uncovered what they said was an unauthorized reference letter. Now, the global effort to find out how nearly three quarters of a billion dollars ended up in Najib's checking account looks set to ensnare all of the usual suspects.



Goldman Looks At The Jobs Report, Sees Three Rate Hikes In 2016

The FOMC may have cut its rate hike forecast from 4 to 2, following by an even more dovish speech by Janet Yellen, but Goldman is convinced the Fed is wrong. As a result, after looking at today's payrolls report, its chief economist Jan Hatzius said that "we ultimately think the committee will move faster than the two-hike pace implied by the latest “dot plot”, despite the dovish signals from the March meeting and Chair Yellen’s remarks this week" and that "we continue to expect the FOMC to raise rates three times in 2016." This means rate hikes during all the upcoming FOMC meetings that have a conference: June, September and December.



Where The March Jobs Were: The Minimum Wage Deluge Continues

In March the US economy added a healthy 215K jobs, beating expectations and more importantly, pushing the average hourly earnings up by 0.3% on the month. Which, however, is curious because a cursory look at the job additions in the month reveals that nearly two-third of all jobs, and the three top categories of all job additions, were once again all minimum wages jobs.



US Manufacturing Surveys Bounce Despite The Biggest Industry Job Losses In 7 Years

Following China's miraculous PMI jump back into expansion, Markit reports US Manufacturing also rose to 51.5 in March (despite the biggest drop in manufacturing jobs since 2009). As Markit details, output growth is unchanged from February’s 28-month low, and prices charged decline amid further drop in input costs. ISM Manufacturing also jumpedfrom 49.5 to 51.8 - the first 'expansion' in 7 months. Finally, we note that ISM Prices Paid exploded higher (from 38.5 to 51.5) - the biggest jump since Aug 2012.



"Wrong Way Gartman" (Reg TM)...

In 24 Hours Gartman Flips From "Don't Fight The Fed" To "A Major Downside Turning Point Is Upon Us"

"Given that a goodly portion of the buying this week has been of the short-covering kind following Dr. Yellen’s speech to the Economics Club of New York, and coupling those notions with the fact that the margin levels on the NYSE have turned lower, we arrive at the possibility that a major turning point to the downside is hard upon us."



Waiters And Bartenders Rise To Record, As Manufacturing Workers Drop Most Since 2009

On the surface, the March jobs reported was better than expected... except for manufacturing workers. As shown in the chart below, in the past month, a disturbing 29,000 manufacturing jobs were lost. This was the single biggest monthly drop in the series going back to December 2009.



"Good" News Is Bad Again? Commodity Carnage Continues Post-Payrolls

It appears Goldman clients are once again taking a bath. Having proposed that with monetary concerns temporarily sidelined, "good news should be good news for risky assets," today's better-than-expected jobs print (following China's better than expected PMIs) has sent stocks lower, bonds higher, and crack gold and oil...



Payrolls Rise 215K In March, Beat Expectations As Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rise

And so the confusion remains: why did Yellen go uber dove three days ahead of a day in which the BLS reported that in March not only were 215K jobs created, more than the consensus 205K, if below last month's 245K, but in which average hourly earnings rebounded a solid 0.3%, above the 0.2% expected, and well above last month's -0.1% decline.



Stocks Entering Weakest Quarter Of The Presidential Cycle

The 2nd quarter of election years has the worst average historical return of the 4-year Presidential Cycle.



Market Breaks - AMZN, GOOG Trading Suspended On NYSE ARCA

Who could have seen that coming? Ahead of potentially the most important data point of the year - now that The Fed lost its China excuse overnight - NYSE Arca reports a 'glitch'
*NYSE ARCA CITES TECHNICAL ISSUE ON TRADING SYMBOLS SUSPENDED, TICKERS AFFECTED: AMZN, AZO, GOOG, GOOGL, ISRG, MKL
We are sure it will all be fixed by the time the market opens and the ramping algos have taken back control.



Your Last Minute Payrolls Preview: What Wall Street Expects (And Why It May Be Disappointed)

At 8:30am Eastern, the BLS will report the March payrolls report: the median forecast calls for a March nonfarm payrolls gain of 205k vs 242k in Feb., the high estimate is 250k, the low is 100k. The number is released three days after a particularly dovish Yellen speech, which prompted many to ask "what does the Fed know" - today's payrolls report will either provide the answer, if it is a big miss, or it will add to the confusion: if payrolls are surging, why is the Fed so concerned.



Police Raid Offices Of Monaco Firm Accused Of Bribing World's Oil Producers

Two days ago we brought you excerpts from a Huffington Post investigative report on Unaoil, a previously obscure Monaco company that allegedly functions as a kind of Bribery Incorporated for state actors looking to curry favor with the world’s oil exporters. On Friday, acting on a request from the UK's Serious Fraud Office, police in Monaco raided Unaoil's offices along with the homes of the family at the heart of the controversy.



Large Explosion In Paris Due To "Gas Leak," Not Terror Police Say

Authorities have now attributed the blast to a gas leak.



China Bans April Fool's Day: It Is "Inconsistent With Core Socialist Values"

In a story that itself seemed like it may be an April fool's joke, the WSJ writes that China’s official Xinhua News Agency has issued a warning on its viewpoint commentary microblog that antics over April Fool’s Day - a tradition it was first exposed to only in the late 1970s when it gradually opened up to foreign cultural influence - are "inconsistent with core socialist values" and at odds with Chinese cultural tradition.




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