Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Inside The Biggest Short Squeeze Ever, A Surprise Emerges


Today, courtesy of JPM's Prime Brokerage, we can not only confirm that the move higher from the February lows was the biggest squeeze ever, but share a unique glimpse inside its mechanics, where something surprising emerges.




What The Charts Say: Complacent, Complacent-er, Complacent-est

While breadth and seasonals are constructive, BofA's Stephen Suttmeier warns complacent put/call, VXV/VIX, and volume distribution are April risk factors.




Triffin's Paradox Revisited: Crunch-Time For The U.S. Dollar & The Global Economy

While all eyes on fixated on global stock markets as the measure of "prosperity" and "growth" (or is it hubris?), the larger force at work beneath the dovish cooing of central bankers is foreign exchange. The reality is that we're one panic away from foreign-exchange markets ripping free of central bank manipulation.



Here Are Some Of The Americans In The "Panama Papers"

Today we finally get some answers to the question on everyone's lips: who are the Americans in the Panama Papers? Surprisingly, there are no politicians of note are in files but plenty of others. Among them: retirees, scammers, and tax evaders, all of whom found a use for secrecy of offshore companies.



Disastrous Ticket Sales, Ongoing Political Turmoil Put Brazil Olympics In Jeopardy

With only four month to go until the Brazil summer olympics, only half of the tickets have been sold. Brazil’s new minister of sports Ricardo Leyser suggested that the Brazilian government may purchase tickets that will be distributed to public schools. He said public officials must also work to boost worldwide confidence in Rio's ability to host the games and ensure travelers' safety.



How The U.S. Treasury Just Crushed 80 Hedge Funds

The following list, according to Goldman Sachs, shows 50 stocks that most frequently appear among the largest 10 holdings of hedge funds. Spot the top one.



Schrodinger's Pharmageddon

PFIZER SAID TO LEAN TOWARD ABANDONING ALLERGAN DEAL: REUTERS
PFIZER SAID TO SCRAMBLE TO SAVE ALLERGAN DEAL AMID NEW TAX RULE



California Gov. Signs Minimum Wage Hike: Admits It "Doesn’t Make Economic Sense" As Locals Flee For Texas

As of midnight, both California and New York have signed the new $15 minimum wage into law. The irony of the situation, which will most certainly go under reported, is that even California’s Governor Brown knows that it’s not the right decision to make economically. Regarding the actual economic impact, California’s Governor Brown was quoted as saying that  "economically, minimum wages may not make sense."



Yanis Varoufakis Issues A Major Warning To The Greek People

"...no matter who comes out ahead in this dispute (the IMF or the EU), it will be the Greek people who lose.."



New Jersey In Fiscal Peril As David Tepper Departs

First it was Connecticut, now another state is in the crosshairs following the imminent "exstatiation" of another prominent hedge fund billionaire, David Tepper.  The decision by billionaire hedge-fund manager David Tepper to quit New Jersey for tax-friendly Florida has put the Garden State in fiscal peril, and  could complicate estimates of how much tax money the struggling state will collect, the head of the Legislature’s nonpartisan research branch warned lawmakers.


Trump Reveals How Mexico Will Pay For "The Wall"

In what he assures will be "an easy decision," Donald Trump has released details of his plan to "compel Mexico to pay for the wall." In a 600 word statement, Trump proposes, in a potentially devastating move for Mexico’s economy, to block billions of dollars in payments immigrants send back home until the nation made "a one-time payment of $5-10 billion" to the U.S.



Head Of "Transparency International" In Chile Resigns After "Panama Papers" Revelations

The president of the Chilean branch of Transparency International resigned on Monday after documents from a Panamanian law firm showed he was linked to at least five offshore companies.
For those who are unfamiliar, Transparency International is a German-based organization that seeks to monitor and root out corporate and political corruption worldwide.


Is Market Breadth Beginning To Sour?

The rally since February has done very little “wrong” in terms of its quality of advance. Sure, many folks would have liked to have seen more volume accompanying the move. We have pointed out some preliminary evidence of complacent or overly bullish sentiment, at least on a short-term basis. Now, we are beginning to see the until-now stellar rally breadth begin to show cracks. However, for the first time since mid-February, the breadth situation is not looking quite as sweet as it was.



President Obama Explains Why The Land-Of-The-Free Will Ban Tax 'Inversions' - Live Feed

Thanks to an ever-increasing need for tax revenues to fund an ever-increasing horde of government-handout-beneficiaries, the populist-in-chief has once again taken aim at tax inversions for the crusade-du-jour. We look forward to him explaining how this is different (and better for American jobs) from what Donald Trump has suggested.



Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP Estimate Crashes To 0.4%

Following this morning's disappointing trade data (but... but... surveys showed that the workers in the service sector are more optimistic... just ignore the actual hard data) we asked if today's Atlanta Fed GDP update would be above or below 0.3%: 'Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP update today: over/under on 0.3%."  Moments ago we got the answer: "The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.4 percent on April 5, down from 0.7 percent on April 1"



The First "Panama Papers" Casualty: Iceland Prime Minister Resigns

We suspect more than a few 'prosecuted' bankers will be smiling wryly today as, following the exposure of his offshore financial dealings - revealed in the Panama Papers - Iceland's embattled Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunlaugsson has resigned. Despite earlier refusal to step down, the decision, which was reported by national broadcaster RUV, followed street protests that attracted thousands of Icelanders angered by the alleged tax evasion.



Yen Carry Trade Snaps After 4 Week Bill Prices Deep Below Fed Funds

Moments ago the US Treasury priced its 4 Week Bill auction, which was unique in that at just $35 billion, was not only $10 billion lower than a month ago, but was the lowest since October 15. This may or may not explain why after last week's curious auction yield of 0.20%, or 5 bps below the effective Fed Funds floor, today's auction showed an even more dramatic scramble for short term liquidity, when the government sold 4 Week Bills at a rate of 0.185%, or 6.5 bps below the rate charged by the Fed!



Puerto Rico Bonds Plunge After Senate Passes Debt Moratorium Bill

The ongoing feud between Puerto Rico and its mostly hedge fund creditors is promptly shaping up as the next "Argentina", where "vulture investors" may well end up holding the island commonwealth hostage for years, during which time, however, they won't get paid. This is shaping up as the latest development in the saga in which earlier today Puerto Rico’s Senate approved a bill calling for a moratorium on a wide range of debt payments, including general-obligation bonds, through January 2017 in what Bloomberg dubbed "the latest escalation of the Caribbean island’s fiscal crisis."



Deutsche Bank Dead-Cat-Bounce Dies As Bund Yields Collapse Near Record Lows

We're gonna need a bigger bailout...



S&P Erases "Great" Jobs Bounce As Bonds Surge

What goes up (for no good reason) must come down (for fundamental and earnings-driven reality)...


The Final Monetary War

by Rory, The Daily Coin:
Over the last 12-15 months we, at The Daily Coin, have documented the relentless decline in silver and gold production. The final numbers for 2015 precious metals global mining production, are still mixed. Some reports show an increase, which makes sense if the price assigned to the product you bring to market is in a depressed state while the demand for that product is at record highs. One is forced to increase production under such a scenario. Some reports show a decline in production. This too is understandable, in a broader sense, as mines the world over are closing down or slowing down for the same reasons as production is shown to be rising – the price of the product that is being mined does not support the operating cost to dig the product out of the ground.
Continue reading The Final Monetary War

THE BOOMER RETIREMENT MEME IS A BIG LIE

from The Burning Platform:

As the labor participation rate and employment to population ratio linger near three decade lows, the mouthpieces for the establishment continue to perpetuate the Big Lie this is solely due to the retirement of Boomers. It’s their storyline and they’ll stick to it, no matter what the facts show to be the truth. Even CNBC lackeys, government apparatchiks, and Ivy League educated Keynesian economists should be able to admit that people between the ages of 25 and 54 should be working, unless they are home raising children.
In the year 2000, at the height of the first Federal Reserve induced bubble, there were 120 million Americans between the ages of 25 and 54, with 78 million of them employed full-time.
Read More

The Number One Reason Americans Will Be Sent to FEMA Camps In a Hillary Clinton Presidency

by Dave Hodges, The Common Sense Show:

With 300 million guns in America, the establishment must find away around the the obvious means that Americans can defend themselves against the encroaching tyranny. And the criminal elite running this country have found a way around the obvious barriers. The solution is simple, simply take a page out of the old Soviet Union’s manual for political repression.
For decades, the majority of the workers of America could best be portrayed in the following manner:
Americans were taught by the Mainstream Media to not question authority. Corporate controlled news became gospel of truth for the majority of Americans
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THE NEXT GUN CONTROL PUSH: AMMUNITION BACKGROUND CHECKS

from The Daily Sheeple:

Second Amendment supporters have always warned of the “slippery slope” that leads to all out gun control. That analogy is never more appropriate than when the subject of California’s gun laws comes up. By all appearance the state has hit that slope hard, and won’t stop tumbling, which is the only reasonable explanation for their latest gun control push. Gavin Newsom, the former mayor of San Francisco turned Lieutenant Governor of California, has recently proposed a doozy of a ballot measure.
He wants ammunition purchases to require a background check, much like you would need to purchase a firearm.
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5 Truths About the Economy the MSM Has Been Forced to Admit

by James Corbett, The International Forecaster:

The truth is a beach ball. You can spin it, distort it, try to knock it out of the way or shove it under the water but it will always pop back up. That’s why the talking heads of the MSM generally just try to ignore it. But it’s there. It persists. It makes itself known.
Today let’s look at five recent examples of how the MSM had to admit the truth about this phoney-baloney fantasyland economy.
1) The Fed caused 93% of the rise in stocks since Lehman
The extraordinary 7 year bull run in the Dow and S&P (complete with the best quarterly comeback since 1933) is a central bank created bubble that rests on no actual economic fundamentals.
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What Currency Has The Highest Purchasing Power?

from The Sleuth Journal:

Establishment economists are the first vindicators that having a weak currency is essential to foster international trade. The utter absurdity that a nation can prosper when their coin of the realm buys less is inherently illogical. Yet, for the globalists, maintaining the myth that promoting exports in a system that is designed around transporting our domestic manufacturing capacity overseas is intellectually incongruent. So what is the essential argument for having a strong currency?
If you are an economic nationalist, you will agree with Stephan Smith, when he acknowledges in How a Strong Currency Affects an Economy.
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NIRP and You: What to Expect

by Adam English, Outsider Club:

“We’re taking a look at them … I wouldn’t take those off the table.”
Those are the words Fed Chair Janet Yellen used in a Congressional hearing a couple months ago regarding one of the most bizarre, and possibly most damaging economic aberrations of our lifetimes.
As the Great Recession wore on, we had to grapple with the consequences of zero interest rate policies. Now we’re facing the prospect of ZIRP becoming NIRP — negative interest rate policies.
Read More

Chemical added to hot dogs, sausage and bacon now being developed by USDA as deadly bait that poisons wild hogs to death… and you’re EATING it for breakfast!

by Mike Adams, Natural News:
A preservative chemical that’s routinely added to hot dogs, beef jerky, bacon and breakfast sausage is now being deployed by government researchers as a fatal bait to poison wild hogs to death. Development of the deadly hog poison is being pursued by none other than the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the same agency that legalizes the same toxic chemical to be used in processed meat products approved for human consumption.
The chemical, known as sodium nitrite, is a cancer-causing “color fixer” and meat preservative added to processed meat products to give them a pink hue that consumers mistake for being “fresh.”
Read More



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