Friday, May 6, 2016

Payrolls Miss Huge: April Jobs Rose Only 160K, Below 200K Expected; Unemployment Rate At 5%



It appears that the Fed is now officially "one and done" because the only indicator that until recently "confirmed" a "strong recovery", non-farm payrolls, just had a major stumble.


Prime Aged Workers Tumble By 280K, Workers 55 And Over Surge To New All Time High

In addition to the troubling trend revealed by the yet again declining labor participation rate as a result of hundreds of thousands of Americans dropping out of the labor force (and lack of entrants), one other recurring concern we have had with the jobs report is that new job growth has disproportionately gone to elderly workers, those 55 and over at the expense of young (16-24) and prime aged (25-54) workers.




"Medical Error" Is Third Leading Cause Of Death In America – Estimated At 250,000 Annually

If bungles and safety lapses in the hospital were accounted for as deaths from disease and injury are, they would be the third most common cause of death in the U.S., leading to more fatalities than respiratory disease, according to a new study by the british medical Journal.



June Rate Hike Odds Collapse To Record Lows - Market Prices In No Hikes Through Feb 2017











562,000 Workers Drop Out Of The Labor Force As Participation Rate Resumes Drop

The number of Americans not in the labor force soared by a whopping 562,000 in April, pushing the grand total of people not in the labor force almost back to record highs over 94 million. As a result, the participation rate, which recently had climbed to 63% or the highest since early 2014, has once again resumed its downward slope with the April print down to just 62.8% as the poor labor and demographic conditions once again emerge as a key driver within the US workforce.



Traders Dump'n'Pump VIX, Buy Gold After Dismal Jobs Data - S&P Gives Up Gains Year-To-Date

The machines went wild when the dismal jobs data struck. The instant reaction was a complete crush of VIX (despite stocks tumbling, Gold surging, and bond yields plunging), but that rapidly turned around and now VIX is heading higher again... Gold is now up 22% Year-to-date as S&P futures indicate cash will open in the red for 2016.



What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Report And How To Trade It

In what may be one of the least relevant payroll reports in a long time as the Fed already knows the labor market is doing better quantiatively (qualitatively it has been all about low-paying jobs gaining at the expense of higher paying manufacturing and info-tech positions) and as has further demonstrated it is no longer jobs data dependent, here is what Wall Street consensus expects: total payrolls +200,000, down from 215K in March; a 4.9% unemployment rate; average hourly earnings rising 0.3% (last 0.3%) M/M and 2.4% Y/Y (last 2.3%); on labor force participation of 63%.



Everyone Is Selling: Largest Outflow From Stock Funds Since September 2015

In what is the latest confirmation that nobody believes the "rally", the latest fund flow data from EPFR showed that US mutual fund and ETF flows turned sharply negative for stocks and high yield this past week (ending on May 4th). The outflow from stocks was $16.9BN following a $1.29bn inflow in the prior week. This was the biggest outflow from stocks since the Sep'15 capitulation on back of China devaluation.



Large Truck Orders Continue To Plunge, Down 39% In April

Last month, trucking fleets ordered just 13,500 Class 8 trucks, the big rigs used on long-haul routes, down 16% from March and 39% from a year earlier. It was the fewest net orders in any April since 2009, FTR said. DAT Solutions, an Oregon-based transportation data firm, reported that loads available for dry vans, the most common type of tractor-trailers used for shipping consumer goods, fell 28% in April while capacity on the market was up 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.



Futures Sink Ahead Of Payrolls, Capping Worst Week For Stocks Since February

Ahead of the most important macro economic event of the week, US nonfarm payrolls (Exp. +200,000, down from 215,000 despite a very poor ADP report two days ago), the markets have that sinking feeling as futures seem unable to shake off what has been a steady grind lower in the past week, while the Nasdaq has been down for nine of the past ten sessions, after yet another session of jawboning by central bankers who this time flipped to the hawkish side, hinting that the market is not prepared for a June rate hike. Additionally, sentiment is showing little sign of improvement due to concerns over global-growth prospects as markets seek to close the worst week since the turmoil at the start of the year.



Merkel Reverses Course, Now Wants To Protect German Borders From Immigrants

With her country's political landscape shifting significantly before her, Angela Merkel has now put her political hat on in order to survive politically in Germany. Having pushed her "open-arms policy" not so very long ago, Merkel has now flip-flopped - in line with the German people - urging European Leaders to protect the EU's external borders or risk a "return to nationalism."



German Study Proves It – 95% Of Greek "Bailout" Money Went To The Banks

A recent German study just confirmed what tens of millions of Greeks already knew. That they are a people fully conquered by criminal mega banks and the corrupt politicians and technocrats in their employ...



Lawmakers To Obama: Don't Supply Syrian Rebels With Stingers

More than two dozen U.S. lawmakers are urging President Barack Obama to refrain from supplying Syrian rebels with American-made shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles... “While we may have differing perspectives regarding the appropriate US response to the horrific violence in Syria, we agree that MANPADS would only lead to more violence, not only in Syria, but potentially around the world...”


The Next Employment Crisis Is Here: Job Cuts At U.S. Companies Jump 35 Percent In April

by Michael Snyder, Economic Collapse Blog:

Should we be alarmed that the number of job cuts announced by large U.S. companies was 35 percent higher in April than it was in March?  This is definitely a case where the trend is not our friend.  According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S. firms announced 65,141 job cuts during April, which represented a massive 35 percent increase over the previous month.  And so far this year overall, job cut announcements are running 24 percent higher than for the exact same period in 2015.  Meanwhile, on Thursday we learned that initial claims for unemployment benefits shot up dramatically last week.  In fact, the jump of 17,000 was the largest increase that we have seen in over a year.  Of course the U.S. economy has been slowing down for quite a while now, and many have been wondering when we would begin to see that slowdown reflected in the employment numbers.  Well, that day has now arrived.
Read More…

Is the War-on-Terror Really a Crusade Against Islam?

by Can Erimtan, Neo:
Now that the Brussels attacks have moved down the list of things to watch on TV and the War-on-Terror is ready to be resumed, I would like to use this opportunity to reflect on the back-story, without however necessarily reverting to conspiracy theories as touted by the ever-willing-to-do-so Sibel Edmonds. Rather than understand the airport and metro assaults as yet another False Flag operation, engineered by the CIA or the American Empire, I would like to draw your attention to the somewhat shadowy figures of the former NATO chief Willy Claes and the one-time White House National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski (aka Zbig).
The 21st century will stand out as the era in human history when God returned back to centre stage after religious beliefs, prejudices and superstitions had supposedly been confined to the dustbin of history following the end of World War II. In the aftermath of the fall of Communism, however, christianity made a particularly remarkable comeback, first in the previously Communist realm of Eastern Europe and Russia and then in Western Europe as well. In this way, Europe accelerated its ideological drift towards America, where great swathes of the population (inclusive of their political leadership) have traditionally been pious believers and devout Christians. But suddenly, at the very outset of the 21st century, on 11 September 2001, to be precise, christianity found itself stuck in a war with Islamist radicals… but, is it really this simple or is the current spike in so-called Muslim terrorism the outcome of rather cynical political moves and machinations set in motion during the final decades of the previous century?

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Ron Paul: What Do The Swiss Know That We Don’t?

from Gold and Liberty:
Claudio Grass, Managing Director of Global Gold in Switzerland, was invited to the Liberty Report from Dr. Ron Paul. This article higlights the discussion between both men, which was centered around the decentralized Swiss system, libertarianism, the European Union, and cultural Marxism.
Dr. Ron Paul: I’ve always been fascinated with Switzerland: it just has such a great history, I love the political system and the decentralization. Of course, Switzerland comes and goes too on their defense of liberty, and sometimes they are the champion of the gold standard.
One question I want to ask you about libertarianism, since you are a libertarian, you are from Switzerland – it sounds like there must be a few more, but if I were a Swiss citizen and I was running for office, and all I wanted to do was aim the goal of getting a maximum amount of vote, would it be more popular for me to say “I am a socialist, and this is what I want”, or would it be better to say “I am a libertarian, and this is what I don’t want to do”? Which one would get the most votes?
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Russia Accuses Obama of Supporting Al Qaeda in Syria

by Eric Zuesse, Washington’s Blog:

On May 4th, Russia’s Sputnik news agency ran the headline: 
and reported that Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, speaking in Moscow about the lengthy negotiations between himself and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to agree on conditions for a Syrian ceasefire and peace talks to take place between Syria’s government and Syria’s rebels, said, “During the negotiations, our US partners actually tried to draw the borders of this ‘zone of silence’ to include a significant number of positions occupied by al-Nusra [Front]. We managed to exclude this as it is absolutely unacceptable.”
Al Qaeda in Syria calls itself “Al Nusra.”
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Syria: Challenging the MSF Narratives and Bias in Aleppo

Open Letter to MSF/Doctors Without Borders
by Rick Sterling, Dissident Voice, via 21st Century Wire:

Dear MSF International President Dr. Joanne Liu,
Your organization is well regarded and influential.  I appreciate that many good people work for and support MSF/Doctors Without Borders.  However, I need to inquire about your independence and the consequences of your work in Syria. I believe an objective look will reveal that while you are helping in some areas, you are causing harm in others.
Following are questions on this important issue:
1: As you know, Aleppo is a large city with the government forces holding western Aleppo while other parts of the city are dominated by armed opposition groups, primarily Nusra/Al Qaeda.  About 1.5 to 2 million people live in the government areas with about 200 to 250 thousand in the areas controlled by armed opposition. So 80-90 % of the population is in government-controlled areas. This is rarely mentioned but seems important.  Given this fact, is it true that you provide aid and support only to the opposition held areas?
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Dirty Rotten Neocons Pledge to Support Hillary Clinton Over Trump

from Sputnik:
As billionaire Donald Trump becomes the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, following the withdrawal of Ted Cruz and John Kasich, a number of conservatives are abandoning ship.
Trump’s candidacy was viewed as a long shot from the beginning, and many in the Republican establishment never imagined they would have to ask themselves: “What if Trump wins?” Now that this outcome is all but guaranteed – barring a last minute rule change by the RNC – most are accepting the reality of the situation.
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The Global Order Is At Stake: China, Britain And Clinton Warn: ‘Save The World From Donald Trump… Political Insurgents’

by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan:
Having failed to derail Donald Trump from a Presidential race that has left pundits, analysts and politicos in a state of shock and bewilderment, Democrat front runner Hillary Clinton is now anxiously soliciting donations so that she can save the world from the scourge of the strongest anti-establishment candidate in American history:
Hillary Clinton’s political team says that only the former Secretary of State can save the world from Donald Trump. “I don’t know how else to say it: The whole world is counting on us to win this thing,” wrote Deputy Communications Director Christina Reynolds in an email to supporters. “And we owe it to them to step up.” “Please give today and let’s start defeating Donald Trump right away,” Reynolds concludes, promising to send donors a bumper sticker if they kick in.
Trump’s domination on the domestic political battlefield has changed the dynamics of the Presidential race to such effect that it’s not just Republicans and Democrats who are terrified of what the off-the-cuff candidate may do should he be elected, but global leaders as well.
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America’s Legacy Will Be Its Downfall: Empire Always Comes Home

by Brandon Turbeville, Activist Post:
Remember, it’s supposed to come right back here because that which the U.S. has created and maybe, perhaps, even the very reason for being that America was set up to do, is almost accomplished. Once it’s accomplished, they’ll be doing the same thing back home. You’ll SUBMERGE into the world system you helped create. – Alan WattCuttingThroughTheMatrix.com 
As Western media outlets and the U.S. State Department attempt to gin up public sentiment surrounding alleged bombings of alleged hospitals that may or may not have even existed and that, even if they did, were nothing more than field hospitals for terrorists, the Syrian people are suffering under unimaginable conditions. These true victims, of course, are completely ignored by the same outlets that cry and pine over the deaths and setbacks of jihadists, rapists, torturers, and murderers.
Amidst the constant propaganda and dehumanizing method of reporting “news” in the West, both the humanity and the wishes of the Syrian people are lost completely.
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