"Hillary Rally" Fizzles As DB Hits New Record Low; Volkswagen Slammed; Oil Slides On Iran Statement

A rally in global risk that started during last night's first presidential debate on the market's take that Hillary came out on top fizzled, following news that the DOJ is assessing how big a criminal fine it can extract from Volkswagen (-3.8%) over emissions-cheating "without putting the German carmaker out of business", while Iran's oil minister Zanganeh told reporters Iran is ununwilling to freeze output at current levels. Deutsche Bank dropped to a new all time low while its default risk hit fresh record highs.

Debate Post-Mortem: Rematch Required As Commentators Split On Debate Winner, Markets Give Hillary Nod

From "big, fat, ugly bubbles" to "trumped-up trickle-down" economics, tonight's debate had something for everyone. One-liners and soundbites were dropped like confetti with strange facial gestures, delicate coughs, and direct jabs flying left, right, and center. As far as the results go, it's anyone's guess: Lester Holt was soundly beaten by everyone; the markets (S&P Futs and the Mexican Peso) suggest a Trump loss; Trump won Twitter; online polls were undecided with a slight nod to a Trump victory; as commentators were mixed, most siding along their ideological bias.

 

Hillary vs Donald: So Who Won?

Oil Crashes After Saudi-Iran "No Deal" Headlines

It appears the entire headline-hockey debacle was a farce: SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN MADE NO PROPOSALS DURING MEETING: ZANGANEH

Lester Holt: The Third Debater?

At last night’s debate, Donald Trump faced off not just against Hillary Clinton, but against moderator Lester Holt.

Global Trade To Grow At Slowest Pace Since Financial Crisis

According to the latest WTO forecast, global trade is set to grow at the slowest pace since the financial crisis: the WTO now expects world trade will again grow more slowly than expected in 2016, expanding by just 1.7%, well below the April forecast of 2.8%. This means that 2016 will be the first time in 15 years that the ratio between trade growth and world GDP has fallen below 1:1. 

Deutsche Bank Contagion: Nord LB, Lufthansa, Korean Air Pull Bond Deals

As noted earlier, the post-debate market relief rally has given way to concerns over banking woes, with stocks turning lower in Europe as focus returns to Deutsche Bank. More troubling is the overnight news that two German issuers - Nord LB and Lufthansa  - followed quickly by Korean Air Lines, have pulled their bond deal as "uncertainty on the credit front appears to be weighing" on the broader market

Richmond Fed Disappoints: Employee Head Count Crashes To 7-Year Lows

It would appear the people who The Conference Board were asking about their 'confidence' were not from the Richmond fed region. A 3rd massive contraction in the last 4 months was not the worst of it as the "number of employees" subindex crashed to -13 - its lowest since June 2009.

Consumer Confidence Is The Highest In 9 Years (& The Lowest Since 2015)

Just days after Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort index plunged to its lowest since 2015, The Conference Board reports a spike in Consumer Confidence to 104.1 - the highest since Sept 2007 (right before the market topped out).

US Services PMI Bounces But Employment Hits 33-Month Lows

US Services PMI bounced in September (flash) to 51.9 - the highest since April, but a weaker expansion of new business had a negative impact on employment growth in September. Staffing levels continued to rise, but the latest increase was only slight and the slowest since March 2013. The rate of job creation has now eased in two consecutive months.

"Wrong Way Gartman"

Dennis Gartman Is "Only Very Slightly Net Long"

"We are materially hedged with derivatives and with gold sufficient in size to bring our net market exposure to something  only very slightly net long."

US Elections: Neither Free Nor Fair

Lecturing on democracy is a distinctive feature of American foreign policy. Does the US really provide an influential role model for how elections should run in other countries? Is America really a shining example of real democracy? "Forbear to judge, for we are sinners all." Domestic and international experts rate the US elections as the worst among all Western democracies. According to Electoral Integrity Project, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden are at the top of the ranking, while the US scores 62.

US Home Price Growth Slowest In A Year

US home prices grew at a disappointing 5.02% YoY in July (missing expectations of 5.10% and the lowest since Aug 2015). Portland, Seattle, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last six months.

Crude Crashes As Iran Says "No Deal" After Saudi Offer

And sure enough, as we noted yesterday, the Saudi "cut" offer that juiced crude yesterday was nothing but a strawman to enable them to pinpoint blame on Iran for the failure of talks. Unwilling to freeze its output - even based on the 'offer' of Saudi cuts - Iran's Bijan Zanganeh exclaimed "it’s not our agenda to reach agreement in these two days," blowing a hole in the hope train for crude's recovery.

Deutsche Bank Stock Crashes Near Single-Digits As CDS Spike To Record Highs

With the only thing standing between bank runs and stability being the confidence of depositors, and knowing full well that everybody lies when it gets serious, one witty trader noted, "if it walks like Lehman, and talks like Lehman... it is Lehman."

Stocks Give Up "Hillary" Gains As Debate Dead Cat Bounce Dies

Well that de-escalated quickly...

Trump, Trade, & Taxes

The best way to restart investment (and thus employment opportunities) is to make the U.S. a magnet for productive capital rather than a graveyard of tax-avoidance strategies.

Goldman Cuts Oil Price Target From $50 To $43 On Rising Global Surplus

While we await every new headline out of Algiers, overnight Goldman threw in the towel on its "transitory" oil market bullishness, and in a note by Damien Courvalin looking "Beyond Algiers, Weakening Oil Fundamentals", the bank cut its Q4 oil price target from $50 to $43, as the bank admits the previously anticipated rebalancing will take longer to achieve, and now expects "a global surplus of 400 kb/d in 4Q16 vs. a 300 kb/d draw previously."

DOJ Is Assessing Size Of Criminal Penalty It Can Levy On Volkswagen "Without Putting Company Out Of Business"

When two weeks ago the DOJ announced a whopping $14BN settlement "ask" from Deutsche Bank, some wondered if there was an element of punitive retaliation aimed at Europe's "assault" on Apple's taxes. That question will surely grow louder when overnight Bloomberg reported that the DOJ is now assessing "how big a criminal fine it can extract from Volkswagen AG over emissions-cheating without putting the German carmaker out of business."

Famous Last Words – Deutsche Bank: “We Don’t Need A Bailout”

by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:
“[The] share price is low but that is not what is worrying us and that is not what we are looking at. What is really important to us is our credit story which is very strong, it is fundamentally strong.” – Jorg Eigendorf, head of communications at DB on CNBC (sourced from Zerohedge)
“The credit story is strong?” To begin with, I’m not sure what the head of communications is doing on bubblevision talking about “credit.” If he understood the meaning of the words he was regurgitating from script, he would not have made that statement if he were under oath.
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Obama Looks Like A Fool At The UN General Assembly

by Luis Miranda, The Sleuth Journal:
The United States is the greatest aggressor in the history of the world.
It was the United States the one that attacked Hiroshima and Nagasaki with two nuclear bombs that killed, conservatively, 300,000 people.
It was the United States the one that attacked Iraq in 1991 in a made-up war, and again in 2003, even though Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. The death toll in Iraq is measured, again, conservatively, at about 200,000 people, although it is likely that the total may have reached at least a million.
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Aluminum in Vaccines Causes Damage to the Brain and Nervous System

by David Gutierrez, Natural News:
Much of the controversy over additives in vaccines has centered around the mercury-containing preservative thimerosal, which is no longer found in childhood vaccines except for flu shots. But did you know that many childhood vaccines contain potentially toxic, brain-damaging levels of aluminum?
Aluminum is included in vaccines as an “adjuvant,” a component that boosts the body’s short-term immune response in order to produce antibodies to the vaccine agent faster. This very function may be part of what makes aluminum in vaccines dangerous.
Aluminum is also a neurotoxin that has been linked to various types of brain damage.
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Deutsche Bank in Free Fall. Shares, CoCo Bonds Plunge. Merkel Gives Cold Shoulder on Bailout. Bank Denies Everything

by Wolf Richter, Wolf Street:
When will she buckle?
Shares of Deutsche Bank got bashed 7.6% today, to €10.49 in Frankfurt, down 67% from April 2015, to the lowest level since they started trading on the Xetra exchange in 1992. They traded below that level in the early 1980s, but decades of inflation have whittled down the purchasing power so much that comparisons are meaningless.
Deutsche Bank’s 5-year default probability spiked to the highest level this year.
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WARREN BUFFETT IS THE LATEST BILLIONAIRE TO JUMP SHIP FROM THE MARKETS

by Jeff Berwick, The Dollar Vigilante:
Right now the market is perceived to be so dangerous that it’s even chased the most fearless value investors to the sidelines.
Just this evening, in the Presidential debate, Trump warned that the stock market was a bubble “about to pop”.
Now, the bearish billionaire circle has grown even wider with the addition of Warren Buffett.
The “Oracle of Omaha” as he’s known, currently has more money outside the markets than ever before in his five decades running Berkshire-Hathaway.
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CHINA’S TOTAL DEBT APPROACHING 300% AS SMALLER BANKERS HAVING TROUBLE WITH FINANCING/MERKEL RULES OUT BAIL OUT FOR DEUTSCHE BANK/DEUTSCHE BANK PLUMMETS ALONG WITH A RISE IN THEIR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS

from Harvey Organ:
GERMANY’S SECOND LARGEST BANK FIRING 9,000 WORKERS OR 18% OF ENTIRE WORK FORCE/WAR OF WORDS ESCALATING BETWEEN RUSSIAN AND THE USA/SYRIANS CLAIM THAT THEY HAVE AUDIO OF CONVERSATIONS BETWEEN ISIS AND USA PRIOR TO THE BOMBING OF THE CONVOY/BARRICK IS ORDERED TO SHUT DOWN BIG VELADARO MINE IN ARGENTINA DUE TO CYANIDE LEAK: 600,000 OZ OF GOLD IS NOW OFF LINE
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
Read More @ Harveyorganblog.com

Political Succession and “The Bush-Clinton Nexus”: Permanent Criminal State, “A Clinton White House Guarantees War with Russia”

Permanent Revolving Door

by Larry Chin, Global Research:
At a spring 2016 Republican debate attended by the Bushes, George H.W. “Poppy” Bush, looked directly at Donald Trump and gave him the “throat slit” gesture, the traditional threat of murder. The Bushes want the Clintons back in the White House.
“Poppy” trusted them with Arkansas in the 1980s, and with the White House in the 1990s, and he can trust them with the marching orders again. A Hillary Clinton presidency guarantees that all the things that the New World Order wants done will continue to get done.
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Will Deutsche Bank’s Collapse Be Worse Than Lehman Brothers?

by Graham Summers, GoldSeek:
Few analysts noted it, but the $USD actually staged its second strongest day of the year the Friday before last.
The only other day in which the $USD rallied more was on the day of BREXIT, a black swan event that featured EXTREME currency volatility.
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Incredible Mainstream Avoidance of Hillary Debate Collapse

from The Daily Bell:

Inside the Final Hours of Debate Prep for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump … After more than a year of wall-to-wall campaigning, the outcome of the 2016 election could hinge on 90 unpredictable minutes Monday night in Hempstead, N.Y.  The first presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is expected to be the most watched in history, with perhaps 100 million viewers tuning in for a showdown with the power to upend an increasingly close race. -TIME
How does Hillary manage to stay healthy and on her feet for three debates? That’s the big question but incredibly you won’t find it asked in mainstream media articles anywhere.
As of a few hours before the debate, the Guardian, TIME, New York Times and myriad other publications have weighed in regarding the debates and what the candidates need to do to win.
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