Whitney Tilson, who needs no introduction given his omnipresence on the business media and anti-omniscience (e.g. the Anti-Tilson ETF here) when it comes to stock-picking, may just have put the final nail in the coffin of Obama's chances of winning the election. Via the quill of the man that top-ticked NFLX, "Why I'm Voting for Obama Again":
In virtually every area – the economy, jobs, social issues, foreign affairs, etc. – I think Obama has done well in his first term (and am optimistic that he’ll be even better in his second term), and going forward I believe Obama and the Democrats have a more clearly defined, realistic, better plan for our country than Romney and the Republicans.
Sandy Total Loss Estimate: Up To $100 Billion
In a stunningly accurate prediction of what to expect from a 100-year storm, the following 2011 report assessing the 'risk increase to infrastructure due to a sea level rise'
provides everything you did not want to know about just how bad the
situation is with recovery from Sandy's damage but were afraid to ask.
Based on extrapolations from storm surge heights, the authors see a 'perfect storm' of this magnitude likely creating a total loss between $50 and $100bn. As Atlantic Cities notes, citing the report: The researchers also estimate that... it could take the subway system about 21 days to get working at 90 percent functionality.
If all potential damage is considered, ...that timeline could increase
to several months, and that "permanent restoration of the system to
the full revenue service that was previously available could take more
than two years." You Don't Know Congress - The Ultimate Infographic
From the first divide in Congress between supporters (right) and opponents (left) of the Washington Administration to the latest record-breaking level of polarization in the House and the Senate, this stunning visual guide to the right- and left-leaning partisanship and ideology of our politicians over the last 224 years is spell-binding. We particularly enjoyed the chaos in the 1820s as the dominant parties fractured - rang an odd bell.
Hurricane Sandy causes huge damage/subway system in turmoil/con edison turns out the lights/Spanish GDP further contracts/Greek coalition breaks apart.
Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 2 hours ago
Good
evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed up today to the tune of $2.30 at $1710.80. Silver rose by 8
cents to $31.81
The big news today of course is the damage that Hurricane Sandy
inflicted on the financial capital of the world, New York. We will
cover quite a few stories on the damage. From Europe we learned that
Spain again suffered another contraction in it's GDP. Greece saw itsDebt And Deficits - Killing Economic Prosperity
What is really causing the economic malaise that the U.S. faces today?
Most economists believe that it is the lack of aggregate demand that
is causing the problem which can be rectified by continued deficit
spending. The current Administration believes that it is simply the
lack of the "rich" not paying their "fair share" and
that a redistribution of wealth will solve the issue. Romney believes
that his 5-point plan will create 12 million jobs in the near future.
All are wrong. It's Not Just NYC; Valencia Government Also Blacked Out (For Not Paying Bill)
While
much of New York City and Westchester remain 'dark' thanks to Sandy;
it seems across the pond, the government of Valencia has gone dark due
to stupidity. As El Economista reports, several
departments of the Generalitat Valenciana have remained without power
Tuesday after a power cut ordered by Gas Natural Fenosa,
trading company that supplies electricity to the regional
administration. The reason, well it's not clear, but reading between the
lines of the comments of one politician "disastrous [government] policy has left the box empty so there's no point to pay for electricity,"
suggests a combination of lack of funding and a need to 'bite one's own
nose off to spite the face'. The 'incomprehensible and inconceivable'
temporary cessation of power has apparently been restored - after the government 'satisfied payments to the company'. Perhaps
this anecdotal snafu explains why Spanish bonds have been bleeding
higher in yield when all we hear from talking heads is that all is well -
and deficits will be better next year.Don't Worry Germany - Your Gold At The New York Fed Is Safe And Sound
The hurricane water surge has come and gone, devastating downtown New York, but one place, the one that represents the deepest hole burrowed south of Houston street and literally lies on the New York bedrock 80 feet below street level, is safe and sound. The place, of course, is where over 20% of the world's tungsten gold is stored. Especially that of Germany (wink wink). And Germany, whose central bank was recently caught in a series of official disclosure faux pas as described here in regards to its official gold holdings, can rest assured that nothing that hasn't already happened to its gold, happened last night.
The Unadulterated Gold Standard
The choice of the word “unadulterated” is not accidental. There were many different kinds of gold standard, including what we now call the Classical Gold Standard, the Gold Bullion Standard, and the Gold Exchange Standard. Each contained flaws; each was adulterated.The Schrodinger (Non) Market Gets Extra-Schizophrenic
With US equity markets closed for the second day in a row, we remain at the whim of either wishful-thinkers on TV or pragmatic realists looking at other markets for clues. Guessing at tomorrow's cash open (or this evening's futures open) is a coin-toss. Gold's move today implies stocks open down around 1%; Treasury Futures imply stocks open down very modestly; the Canadian equity market indicates stocks open up around 1%; and EURUSD (and EURJPY) suggest equities open down slightly from this morning's closing level of 1411.25. So take your pick - up 1%, down 1%, or unch? Or all at the same time as the algos go full Baumgartner. S&P 500 futures will re-open at 1800ET.
Disney Buys Lucasfilm, Star Wars 7 Coming In 2015
Just when you thought the Star Wars sexalogy had three horrifying episodes too much, here comes Mickey Mouse to buy the HoldCo (for $4 billion) and make sure that even more atrocious dancing takes place on the grave of the science fiction movie that defined a generation. That, and a whole lot more Lando Calrissian action figures. Because how does one know Hollywood has officially run out of ideas? Like this: "Star Wars Episode 7 is targeted for release in 2015, with more feature films expected to continue the Star Wars saga and grow the franchise well into the future." Surely Star Wars 7 will have a Retina Display, but if young Skywalker relies on Apple maps to get to Tatooine we will just wait for part 9 (not to be confused with how many inches the maxiPad will be). What we are most excited about, however, is Indiana Jones 7 - Raiders of the Lost Wheelchair. And the renaming of Star Wars IV, of course, to "A New Hope and Change."
Quick: Per Se Still Has A 6:00 PM Reservation Opening Tonight
Update: 15 seconds later, all open Per Se reservations had been taken. Better luck after the next hurricane.New York is back, baby. Best way to check? Restaurant reservations. And the best cross referencing place for that these days is OpenTable. A cursory check shows that of the 616 restaurants indicating availability for tonight, many already have the much desired 7:00 pm slot already booked up. Among these are such bastions of haute gourmet as Asiate, Rouge, Cipriani Caravaggio, Ouest, Felidia, Triomphe, and of course Dorsia Per Se. Which means only thing: New York has picked itself up, brushed off the rain drops from its $10,000 fitted Zegna suits, and is back to eating. The good news: Per Se still has a 6 PM opening (although probably not for long after this post).
Stop Manipulating Bank Earnings With Loan-Loss Reserves, Currency Comptroller Warns
Readers
of Zero Hedge know well that one of the most abhorred (by us)
accounting gimmicks employed by banks each and every quarter over the
past 3 years to boost their bottom line, is to engage in loan-loss
reserve releases: a process which has absolutely no associated cash flow benefit, but merely boosts EPS for GAAP purposes. In some cases, like this quarter's absolutely farcical JPM earnings release, the abuse is beyond the pale, as the offending bank releases reserves even as it reports surging non-performing loans: two processes which in a normal world can not coexist.
Yet quarter after quarter banks keep on doing this, and in fact a big
part of Q3's to date EPS outperformance is courtesy of financial
company "earnings", of which, in turn, loan losses amount to about 50% of the entire blended financials bottom line. Yet
while we can rage and warn, nothing usually happens until there is a
market crash due to the gross manipulation of reality that such an
activity entails. Luckily, this time someone with more clout in the
legacy establishment has now stood up to warn about the mounting dangers
associated with the relentless abuse of loan-loss reserve releases:
none other than the US Comptroller of the Currency.And The Survey Says: If Obama, Sell Stocks; If Romney, Sell Bonds
The
US elections have the potential to have a significant impact on US
equities and rates markets, according to a recent survey by Barclays
Research. Investors seem to believe in a more promising growth outlook
under a Romney win, in spite of their concerns about a likely tighter
monetary policy stance. They favor long equities and short bond portfolios as the best way to express a Romney win. Under an Obama win, investors favor bonds and are divided about the direction of equities,
but would choose bonds and equities over FX and commodities to express
this scenario. Obama’s victory would likely be perceived as preserving
the status quo (asset market moves are expected to be muted across the
board), while a Romney win is more likely to suggest a change of direction to clients by way of a better growth outlook. Congressional deadlock remains the biggest economic/policy concern no matter who wins.No Joy In Cupertino: Europe Implies Sub-$600 AAPL After Firings
While
every talking-head that is not bailing out their Westchester McMansion
is claiming that AAPL's firing of its iOS and Retail division heads is
somehow a bullish thing, European traders in AAPL disagree.
Given where the European composite price for AAPL (via Deutsche
Bourse) is trading, it would appear AAPL is back back under $600 -
quick, we need another narrative for why stocks will open up tomorrow!A Case For Legalized Insider Trading
Defending the indefensible? In the past weeks, there has been a 'revival' of news related to high-profile inside trading cases.
Insider trading is accurately pictured in that great movie called "Wall
Street", by a famous line of Gordon Gekko to Bud Fox. Gordon said: "If
you’re not inside, you are outside". Gordon was right. If only people
understood that this is just a natural thing... It has nothing to do with ethics.
Yes, we know that there is something in our argument that may not make
sense to you... and we dare to guess that it is because you expect fairness when you invest your savings in a public security (i.e. a stock or a bond). But in all honesty…have you ever asked yourself why you expect fairness?
We are not implying people should not trust those who issue or market
these securities. But if they do, they should recognize that there is
the risk that they may suffer a loss due to insider trading. Public
securities, ceteris paribus, should trade at a discount to private
securities, to compensate for the risk of lack of control and
transparency. Yet, today, the opposite applies.Your support is needed...
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My Dear Extended Family,
This is major rumor control that I feel you must understand if you are to know gold.
I am sick of all this confiscation talk of gold and even gold companies. It emanates from gold people who do not know or understand the history of gold. We condemn MSM for inaccurate, false and misleading news. I condemn gold writers who practice sensationalism, who offer their opinions as if they were facts and simply make things up out of thin air as if they were insiders privy to things that no one else is. Right now leaders of this community are printing stuff as misleading as MOPE or MSM ever have.
Apparently the Scottish hedge fund manager Hendrey, who is by his own admission "short some gold shares," is warning about confiscation without remuneration of gold companies above gold $3000. Either he has never studied gold history, or totally misunderstood its role in the 1930s.
Eric De Groot put what I have been trying to teach you perfectly today. In the 1930s gold was to the monetary system what QE is today, a means of increasing the supply of money for Fed and Treasury discretionary use. The US Secretary of the Treasury and President Roosevelt set the gold price higher at their daily breakfast together arbitrarily. Higher because to create money then the system required a higher value of gold to have more money outstanding. This is why Roosevelt ordered the confiscation of gold in order to unfold his type of monetary stimulation, his QE. This is what confiscationophiles simply do not know.
Your fears and the outrageous untrue statement by the Scottish hedge fund manager are based on totally wrong reasoning and misunderstanding. Gold was not confiscated because it was going up in price. Gold’s order of confiscation came as a tool of monetary stimulation in order to create monetary creation in order to attempt to increase employment. The order of gold confiscation had nothing whatsoever to do with punishment of the gold holders. It preceded the then big run up in the gold price. Believers in confiscation, because they are incorrect on its basis, are totally wrong in predicting it. Those that predict confiscation of anything gold love sensationalism and benefit somehow from scaring the dickens out of you unnecessarily.
Gold companies will not be confiscated any more than oil companies were when oil traded at $145. You think this is some sort of punishment for profit? You are thereby fearing something that simply will not happen. You are like an Apple stockholder fearing that the government will confiscate their company because of the popularity of the iPhone.
I am sorry to see how gullible some of you can be. If you assume fund manager Hendrey was well meaning in his statement then he disqualifies himself from an understanding of gold’s roll historically in monetary science. That then disqualifies his position actually published in this community. Any source that published Hendrey’s false confiscation Dogma statement without this clarification is demonstrating the writer’s ignorance of gold and its purpose in the 1930s. If you do not understand what gold was then you will never understand the new role that gold will play.
In terms of rumor control, Turkey has not remonetized gold by giving it Tier 1 status as an asset. Nobody can state as fact the condition of the gold deposits at the NY Fed or Fort Knox. You can speculate on what has occurred but what I hear being said so far is gold MOPE and gold MSM.
Please, my friends, keep your feet on the ground. Fund Manager Hendrey is totally correct on the gold price at $3000. I might add at $3000 plus.
Respectfully,
Jim
U.S. Declares ‘Alert’ At Oyster Creek Nuclear Plant In N.J. 10/29/2012 @ 11:18PM
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said that at “Alert” has been declared at the Oyster Creek nuclear power plant in Forked River, New Jersey, an event related to Hurricane Sandy.
The NRC said that the plant, which is in a regularly scheduled outage, declared the Alert at 8:45 p.m. Eastern time “due to water exceeding certain high water level criteria in the plant’s water intake structure.”
The Commission notes that an Alert is the second lowest of four NRC action levels. Before reaching Alert status, the plant declared an “Unusual Event” when the water first reached a minimum high water level criteria, the NRC says.
“Water level is rising in the intake structure due to a combination of a rising tide, wind direction and storm surge. It is anticipated water levels will begin to abate within the next several hours,” the NRC says.
The NRC added that as of 9 p.m. EDT, no nuclear power plants had to shut down as a result of the storm, adding that “all plants remain in a safe condition, with emergency equipment available if needed and NRC inspectors on-site.”
The government agency noted that the NRC has inspectors providing 24-hour coverage of all plants that could be affected by the storm, including Oyster Creek; Salem and Hope Creek, in Hancocks Bridge, N.J.; Calvert Cliffs, in Lusby, Md.; Limerick, in Limerick Township, Pa.; Peach Bottom, in Delta, Pa.; Three Mile Island, in Middletown, Pa.; Susquehanna, in Salem Township, Pa.; Indian Point, in Buchanan, N.Y.; and Millstone, in Waterford, Conn.
More…
Hurricane Sandy: Problems at Five Nuke Plants By MARK SCHONE
Oct. 30, 2012
The nation’s oldest nuclear plant declared an alert and a second plant just 40 miles from New York City was forced to shut down power as five different nuke plants in Hurricane Sandy’s path experienced problems during the storm.
Indian Point in Buchanan, New York, on the Hudson River north of New York City, automatically shut power to its unit 3 on Monday night "as a result of an electrical grid disturbance," according to Entergy, the plant’s operator.
The connection between the generator and the offsite grid was lost, and the unit is designed to shut down to protect itself from electrical damage. Entergy said there was no release of radioactivity, no damage to equipment, and no threat to the public health.
"At Indian Point yesterday the river level and wind had no impact on plant operation," said a spokesman. Another unit at the plant continues to operate, and the company expects unit 3 to return to service within days.
Operators also declared an alert at the nation’s oldest nuclear plant, Oyster Creek in Lacey Township, New Jersey, on Monday evening after the center of Sandy made landfall, "due to water exceeding certain high water level criteria in the plant’s water intake structure."
The alert level is the "the second lowest of four action levels," as defined by the NRC.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is a picture of some terrifying storm damage from Hurricane Sandy.
Jim,
Here is a good recap of the countries that have abandoned the dollar as the world’s currency in the last few months.
CIGA Yahn
The Invisible Hand Is A Master of What the Public Ignores CIGA Eric
Those frustrated by timing gold have two choices. Remove opinion and emotion by (1) turning off the quote machine and refrain from using leverage going forward, or (2) through mathematical study of money flows, confidence, and time to interpret the market. The latter is much harder than the former.
Those expecting gold to transition from the power D-wave decline (DOWN) to C-wave advance (UP), thus, skipping the AB transition fail to recognize the importance of price management by the invisible hand to prevent what Jim Sinclair describes as follows:
The more money you create, the more money you must continue to create until it goes to infinity. You go cold turkey on money creation, you unleash the economic wrath of hell in the entire Western world. It all comes down in one great implosion.
Russia and China would act immediately economically to take full and powerful advantage of your error in application. You have to wean a drug addict off the drug in order to not kill him in recovery.
This stakes of this monetary game, not widely understood or well-played, are extremely high.
The secular bull market follows a basic ABCD cycle. AB transitions transfer ownership of the trend from weak to strong hands before the powerful C-wave advance due to start in 2013. While the investment world tends to focus solely on price, they completely ignore money flows, confidence (chart 1 and 2), and TIME. The invisible hand profits from a rising trend without heavy long side exposure because its the master of what the public ignores.
Chart 1: University of Michigan Consumer Expectations (CE) and Gold: A Correlation Study
Chart 2: London P.M. Fixed Gold (GOLD) AND Gold to University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Ratio (GOLD/CE) or Gold to Confidence Ratio.
Headline: Consumer sentiment highest in five years
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Though down from a preliminary report, final consumer sentiment in October reached a five-year high amid brighter views on future and current conditions.
The final reading of the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index edged down to 82.6 — the highest final reading since September 2007 — from an initially reported 83.1.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a final October level of 83, compared with 78.3 in September. See economic calendar.
Source: marketwatch.com
More…
Austerity Will Not Be The Path To Prosperity in Western Economies CIGA Eric
Hubert Hoover chose austerity as the path to prosperity in 1930. This choice handed the 1932 election to Roosevelt.
Roosevelt proposed in his first "hundred days," a sweeping program to bring recovery to business and agriculture, relief to the unemployed and to those in danger of losing farms and homes, and reform, especially through the establishment of the Tennessee Valley Authority.
Gold hoarded as a hedge against poor centralized management needed to be confiscated in order to devalue the dollar. Confiscation and revaluation of the gold from $20/oz to $35/oz (or devaluation of the dollar) in 1933-1934 functioned in a similar manner as today’s QE.
Headline: Spain retail sales decimated by VAT hike
MADRID (Reuters) – Spanish retail sales fell at their fastest pace on record in September as already battered consumer confidence took another hit from a hike in value added tax, driving many shoppers to trade down to cheaper products.
Sales fell 10.9 percent year on year, Monday’s National Statistics Institute data showed, reflecting an economy struggling through its second recession in three years and plagued by chronically high unemployment.
The drop was the biggest in calendar-adjusted terms since current records began in January 2004, and marked the 27th monthly decline in a row.
Spain has been in recession since the first quarter of the year and is not likely to grow again until late in 2013, according to official estimates that many economists consider optimistic.
The country had the highest unemployment rate in the European Union in August – 25.1 percent – according to EU data.
That figure is expected to rise further as a large public deficit forces the government to implement deeper spending cuts and further tax hikes to persuade markets it can control its finances. It increased sales tax on September 1.
Source: finance.yahoo.com
More…
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Last week gold and silver had to withstand the usual bullion bank
assault that occurs during option expiration on the Comex. The largest
concentration of open strikes was at $1,700 for gold and $32 for silver.
Although they managed to knock gold below $1,700 for a brief period,
it closed on Friday at $1,711.10 and silver held at $32.09. There are
only three settlement days left in October and we expect resistance at
$1,725.
European
stocks popped at the open and then generally trod water for the rest
of the day. The initial liquid-driven surge had no follow through and
in fact European sovereigns bled wider most of the day - with Greek govvies now down almost 10% (in price) in the last week.
Credit markets re-racked along with stocks - with XOver outperforming
and Main (investment grade) underperforming (along with financials).
The story of the day was yet another 100pip-or-so rampapalooza in EURUSD - the 3rd in 5 days - 
Canada's
TSX is now up over 1% from its pre-vertical ramp yesterday afternoon
as it is now extremely clear, to all those who take the time to
consider why, that as central bank liquidity provision must flow
somewhere, so the algos latch on and follow the momentum. We have
just had what will likely be the most costly US disaster in history,
earnings are anything but robust, BoJ's QE9 failed instantly last night,
Greek Government Bonds are fading (now off almost 10% from recent
highs) as deals look set to be voted down, and European sovereign bonds
are leaking wider; and so - with US equities shut, that PBOC/BoJ liquidity must flow somewhere and the closest proxy is our Canadian brethren. TSX
current price implies S&P futures around 1425 and S&P cash at
around 1430 - back to Bernanke's starting point for QEtc. We
suspect this is just auctioning up to previous resistance but USD
weakness is helping modestly (even as commodities slide lower) but of
course it is just as likely to be all about slamming the European close.
“As
far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain;
and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.” – Albert
Einstein
Investors in China are seeking out silver as an alternative value
investment with the economy cooling for a seventh quarter. Research from
Beijing Antaike notes that demand for silver is set to jump as much as
10% in 2013, with investors seeking to preserve their wealth.
Just in time for the upcoming closing of the litigatory window for such cases, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has filed a new lawsuit against Bank of America
(BofA) alleging that the banking giant fraudulently dumped billions of
dollars’ worth of bad mortgages into the taxpayer-backed mortgage groups
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the early stages of the economic
crisis.
The good news for New York City is the storm crest has peaked. The bad
news is the cleanup will take days, or longer, and much is the city is
blacked-out.
With
the US elections approaching next week, as well as the threat of
another fiscal cliff showdown looming, we asked contributing editor
Charles Hugh Smith to revisit his 
It was pretty quiet during Far East trading on their Monday. The high
of the day was in shortly after 2:00 p.m. Hong Kong time…about fifty
minutes before the London open…and it was all down hill until fifteen
minutes after the Comex open in New York.
Rob Kall:
Okay, so there were definitely problems. How do you see the big
picture evolving then, with resistance, with civil disobedience? What
are the next steps?
The real value of the Commitment of Traders or COT Report for silver traders, (as 
French businessman and economist 
As everyone who has been to New York City knows, without its underground arteries – the subway system -
the city is if not dead, than certainly in an indefinite coma. By that
logic, New York will not get out of the critical ward for many days,
because hours ago the head of the New York City’s transit system just
called Hurricane Sandy “the most devastating event to the city’s subway system ever.”
At last check seven subway tunnels under the East River had flooded,
as did the Queens Midtown Tunnel—and Metropolitan Transit Authority
chairman Joseph Lhota said there is “no firm timeline” for when the
system would be back up and running. According to other MTA employees it would take between 14 hours and 4 days just to pump the water out of the subway system.
We’ll take the over. And as long as there are no subways, there are no
clerical and support workers, there is no Wall Street, there is no
beating heart to the city.
Today John Embry told King World News, “I firmly believe that if you
look at all of the Western central banks, and the gold they allegedly
own, I believe a significant portion of that is not in their vaults.”
Embry also stated, “So they can say all they want, but in the end the
truth will be revealed by the lack of physical gold in the market as
they run out of enough gold to keep the price under control.” Embry
also predicted, “The revelation of this central bank conspiracy will make the Libor scandal pale in comparison.”
What is regarded as one of the largest Roman gold coin hoards ever
found in the United Kingdom was discovered in early October.
Other
than some obligatory arrests for disorderly conduct, the Occupy Wall
Street movement celebrated its one year anniversary this past September
with little fanfare. While the movement seems to have lost momentum,
at least temporarily, it did succeed in showcasing the growing sense of
unease felt among a large segment of the US population – a group the
Occupy movement shrewdly referred to as “the 99%”. The 99% means
different things to different people, but to us, the 99% represents the US consumer. It represents the majority of Americans who are neither wealthy nor impoverished and whose spending power makes up approximately 71% of the US economy.
It is the purchasing power of this massive, amorphous group that
drives the US economy forward. The problem, however, is that four years
into a so-called recovery, this group is still being financially squeezed from every possible angle, making it very difficult for them to maintain their standard of living, let alone increase their levels of consumption.
While
it is too early to estimate the ultimate losses wreaked by Hurricane
Sandy in the last 24 hours, we thought it useful to start gauging
relative exposures and which companies are the most exposed. As it
stands, Hurricane Katrina remains 
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