Did Whitney Tilson Just 'Netflix' Obama's Chances Of Winning?

Whitney Tilson, who needs no introduction given his omnipresence on the business media and anti-omniscience (e.g. the Anti-Tilson ETF here) when it comes to stock-picking, may just have put the final nail in the coffin of Obama's chances of winning the election. Via the quill of the man that top-ticked NFLX, "Why I'm Voting for Obama Again":

In virtually every area – the economy, jobs, social issues, foreign affairs, etc. – I think Obama has done well in his first term (and am optimistic that he’ll be even better in his second term), and going forward I believe Obama and the Democrats have a more clearly defined, realistic, better plan for our country than Romney and the Republicans.

Sandy Total Loss Estimate: Up To $100 Billion

In a stunningly accurate prediction of what to expect from a 100-year storm, the following 2011 report assessing the 'risk increase to infrastructure due to a sea level rise' provides everything you did not want to know about just how bad the situation is with recovery from Sandy's damage but were afraid to ask. Based on extrapolations from storm surge heights, the authors see a 'perfect storm' of this magnitude likely creating a total loss between $50 and $100bn. As Atlantic Cities notes, citing the report: The researchers also estimate that... it could take the subway system about 21 days to get working at 90 percent functionality. If all potential damage is considered, ...that timeline could increase to several months, and that "permanent restoration of the system to the full revenue service that was previously available could take more than two years."

You Don't Know Congress - The Ultimate Infographic

 
From the first divide in Congress between supporters (right) and opponents (left) of the Washington Administration to the latest record-breaking level of polarization in the House and the Senate, this stunning visual guide to the right- and left-leaning partisanship and ideology of our politicians over the last 224 years is spell-binding. We particularly enjoyed the chaos in the 1820s as the dominant parties fractured - rang an odd bell.

Hurricane Sandy causes huge damage/subway system in turmoil/con edison turns out the lights/Spanish GDP further contracts/Greek coalition breaks apart.

Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 2 hours ago

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed up today to the tune of $2.30 at $1710.80.  Silver rose by 8 cents to $31.81 The big news today of course is the damage that Hurricane Sandy inflicted on the financial capital of the world, New York.  We will cover quite a few stories on the damage.  From Europe we learned that Spain again suffered another contraction in it's GDP.  Greece saw its

Debt And Deficits - Killing Economic Prosperity

What is really causing the economic malaise that the U.S. faces today?  Most economists believe that it is the lack of aggregate demand that is causing the problem which can be rectified by continued deficit spending.  The current Administration believes that it is simply the lack of the "rich"  not paying their "fair share" and that a redistribution of wealth will solve the issue.  Romney believes that his 5-point plan will create 12 million jobs in the near future.  All are wrong. 

It's Not Just NYC; Valencia Government Also Blacked Out (For Not Paying Bill)

While much of New York City and Westchester remain 'dark' thanks to Sandy; it seems across the pond, the government of Valencia has gone dark due to stupidity. As El Economista reports, several departments of the Generalitat Valenciana have remained without power Tuesday after a power cut ordered by Gas Natural Fenosa, trading company that supplies electricity to the regional administration. The reason, well it's not clear, but reading between the lines of the comments of one politician "disastrous [government] policy has left the box empty so there's no point to pay for electricity," suggests a combination of lack of funding and a need to 'bite one's own nose off to spite the face'. The 'incomprehensible and inconceivable' temporary cessation of power has apparently been restored - after the government 'satisfied payments to the company'. Perhaps this anecdotal snafu explains why Spanish bonds have been bleeding higher in yield when all we hear from talking heads is that all is well - and deficits will be better next year.

Don't Worry Germany - Your Gold At The New York Fed Is Safe And Sound

The hurricane water surge has come and gone, devastating downtown New York, but one place, the one that represents the deepest hole burrowed south of Houston street and literally lies on the New York bedrock 80 feet below street level, is safe and sound. The place, of course, is where over 20% of the world's tungsten gold is stored. Especially that of Germany (wink wink). And Germany, whose central bank was recently caught in a series of official disclosure faux pas as described here in regards to its official gold holdings, can rest assured that nothing that hasn't already happened to its gold, happened last night.

The Unadulterated Gold Standard

The choice of the word “unadulterated” is not accidental.  There were many different kinds of gold standard, including what we now call the Classical Gold Standard, the Gold Bullion Standard, and the Gold Exchange Standard.  Each contained flaws; each was adulterated.

The Schrodinger (Non) Market Gets Extra-Schizophrenic

With US equity markets closed for the second day in a row, we remain at the whim of either wishful-thinkers on TV or pragmatic realists looking at other markets for clues. Guessing at tomorrow's cash open (or this evening's futures open) is a coin-toss. Gold's move today implies stocks open down around 1%; Treasury Futures imply stocks open down very modestly; the Canadian equity market indicates stocks open up around 1%; and EURUSD (and EURJPY) suggest equities open down slightly from this morning's closing level of 1411.25. So take your pick - up 1%, down 1%, or unch? Or all at the same time as the algos go full Baumgartner. S&P 500 futures will re-open at 1800ET.

Disney Buys Lucasfilm, Star Wars 7 Coming In 2015

Just when you thought the Star Wars sexalogy had three horrifying episodes too much, here comes Mickey Mouse to buy the HoldCo (for $4 billion) and make sure that even more atrocious dancing takes place on the grave of the science fiction movie that defined a generation. That, and a whole lot more Lando Calrissian action figures. Because how does one know Hollywood has officially run out of ideas? Like this: "Star Wars Episode 7 is targeted for release in 2015, with more feature films expected to continue the Star Wars saga and grow the franchise well into the future." Surely Star Wars 7 will have a Retina Display, but if young Skywalker relies on Apple maps to get to Tatooine we will just wait for part 9 (not to be confused with how many inches the maxiPad will be). What we are most excited about, however, is Indiana Jones 7 - Raiders of the Lost Wheelchair. And the renaming of Star Wars IV, of course, to "A New Hope and Change."

Quick: Per Se Still Has A 6:00 PM Reservation Opening Tonight

  Update: 15 seconds later, all open Per Se reservations had been taken. Better luck after the next hurricane.
New York is back, baby. Best way to check? Restaurant reservations. And the best cross referencing place for that these days is OpenTable. A cursory check shows that of the 616 restaurants indicating availability for tonight, many already have the much desired 7:00 pm slot already booked up. Among these are such bastions of haute gourmet as Asiate, Rouge, Cipriani Caravaggio, Ouest, Felidia, Triomphe, and of course Dorsia Per Se. Which means only thing: New York has picked itself up, brushed off the rain drops from its $10,000 fitted Zegna suits, and is back to eating. The good news: Per Se still has a 6 PM opening (although probably not for long after this post).

Stop Manipulating Bank Earnings With Loan-Loss Reserves, Currency Comptroller Warns

Readers of Zero Hedge know well that one of the most abhorred (by us) accounting gimmicks employed by banks each and every quarter over the past 3 years to boost their bottom line, is to engage in loan-loss reserve releases: a process which has absolutely no associated cash flow benefit, but merely boosts EPS for GAAP purposes. In some cases, like this quarter's absolutely farcical JPM earnings release, the abuse is beyond the pale, as the offending bank releases reserves even as it reports surging non-performing loans: two processes which in a normal world can not coexist. Yet quarter after quarter banks keep on doing this, and in fact a big part of Q3's to date EPS outperformance is courtesy of financial company "earnings", of which, in turn, loan losses amount to about 50% of the entire blended financials bottom line. Yet while we can rage and warn, nothing usually happens until there is a market crash due to the gross manipulation of reality that such an activity entails. Luckily, this time someone with more clout in the legacy establishment has now stood up to warn about the mounting dangers associated with the relentless abuse of loan-loss reserve releases: none other than the US Comptroller of the Currency.

And The Survey Says: If Obama, Sell Stocks; If Romney, Sell Bonds

The US elections have the potential to have a significant impact on US equities and rates markets, according to a recent survey by Barclays Research. Investors seem to believe in a more promising growth outlook under a Romney win, in spite of their concerns about a likely tighter monetary policy stance. They favor long equities and short bond portfolios as the best way to express a Romney win. Under an Obama win, investors favor bonds and are divided about the direction of equities, but would choose bonds and equities over FX and commodities to express this scenario. Obama’s victory would likely be perceived as preserving the status quo (asset market moves are expected to be muted across the board), while a Romney win is more likely to suggest a change of direction to clients by way of a better growth outlook. Congressional deadlock remains the biggest economic/policy concern no matter who wins.

No Joy In Cupertino: Europe Implies Sub-$600 AAPL After Firings

  While every talking-head that is not bailing out their Westchester McMansion is claiming that AAPL's firing of its iOS and Retail division heads is somehow a bullish thing, European traders in AAPL disagree. Given where the European composite price for AAPL (via Deutsche Bourse) is trading, it would appear AAPL is back back under $600 - quick, we need another narrative for why stocks will open up tomorrow!

A Case For Legalized Insider Trading

Defending the indefensible? In the past weeks, there has been a 'revival' of news related to high-profile inside trading cases. Insider trading is accurately pictured in that great movie called "Wall Street", by a famous line of Gordon Gekko to Bud Fox. Gordon said: "If you’re not inside, you are outside". Gordon was right. If only people understood that this is just a natural thing... It has nothing to do with ethics. Yes, we know that there is something in our argument that may not make sense to you... and we dare to guess that it is because you expect fairness when you invest your savings in a public security (i.e. a stock or a bond). But in all honesty…have you ever asked yourself why you expect fairness? We are not implying people should not trust those who issue or market these securities. But if they do, they should recognize that there is the risk that they may suffer a loss due to insider trading. Public securities, ceteris paribus, should trade at a discount to private securities, to compensate for the risk of lack of control and transparency. Yet, today, the opposite applies.
 

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Gold Confiscation Rumor Control

October 30, 2012, at 6:20 pm
by Jim Sinclair

My Dear Extended Family,

This is major rumor control that I feel you must understand if you are to know gold.
I am sick of all this confiscation talk of gold and even gold companies. It emanates from gold people who do not know or understand the history of gold. We condemn MSM for inaccurate, false and misleading news. I condemn gold writers who practice sensationalism, who offer their opinions as if they were facts and simply make things up out of thin air as if they were insiders privy to things that no one else is. Right now leaders of this community are printing stuff as misleading as MOPE or MSM ever have.
Apparently the Scottish hedge fund manager Hendrey, who is by his own admission "short some gold shares," is warning about confiscation without remuneration of gold companies above gold $3000. Either he has never studied gold history, or totally misunderstood its role in the 1930s.
Eric De Groot put what I have been trying to teach you perfectly today. In the 1930s gold was to the monetary system what QE is today, a means of increasing the supply of money for Fed and Treasury discretionary use. The US Secretary of the Treasury and President Roosevelt set the gold price higher at their daily breakfast together arbitrarily. Higher because to create money then the system required a higher value of gold to have more money outstanding. This is why Roosevelt ordered the confiscation of gold in order to unfold his type of monetary stimulation, his QE. This is what confiscationophiles simply do not know.
Your fears and the outrageous untrue statement by the Scottish hedge fund manager are based on totally wrong reasoning and misunderstanding. Gold was not confiscated because it was going up in price. Gold’s order of confiscation came as a tool of monetary stimulation in order to create monetary creation in order to attempt to increase employment. The order of gold confiscation had nothing whatsoever to do with punishment of the gold holders. It preceded the then big run up in the gold price. Believers in confiscation, because they are incorrect on its basis, are totally wrong in predicting it. Those that predict confiscation of anything gold love sensationalism and benefit somehow from scaring the dickens out of you unnecessarily.
Gold companies will not be confiscated any more than oil companies were when oil traded at $145. You think this is some sort of punishment for profit? You are thereby fearing something that simply will not happen. You are like an Apple stockholder fearing that the government will confiscate their company because of the popularity of the iPhone.
I am sorry to see how gullible some of you can be. If you assume fund manager Hendrey was well meaning in his statement then he disqualifies himself from an understanding of gold’s roll historically in monetary science. That then disqualifies his position actually published in this community. Any source that published Hendrey’s false confiscation Dogma statement without this clarification is demonstrating the writer’s ignorance of gold and its purpose in the 1930s. If you do not understand what gold was then you will never understand the new role that gold will play.
In terms of rumor control, Turkey has not remonetized gold by giving it Tier 1 status as an asset. Nobody can state as fact the condition of the gold deposits at the NY Fed or Fort Knox. You can speculate on what has occurred but what I hear being said so far is gold MOPE and gold MSM.
Please, my friends, keep your feet on the ground. Fund Manager Hendrey is totally correct on the gold price at $3000. I might add at $3000 plus.
Respectfully,
Jim

 

In The News Today

October 30, 2012, at 11:53 am
by Jim Sinclair

U.S. Declares ‘Alert’ At Oyster Creek Nuclear Plant In N.J. 10/29/2012 @ 11:18PM
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said that at “Alert” has been declared at the Oyster Creek nuclear power plant in Forked River, New Jersey, an event related to Hurricane Sandy.
The NRC said that the plant, which is in a regularly scheduled outage, declared the Alert at 8:45 p.m. Eastern time “due to water exceeding certain high water level criteria in the plant’s water intake structure.”
The Commission notes that an Alert is the second lowest of four NRC action levels. Before reaching Alert status, the plant declared an “Unusual Event” when the water first reached a minimum high water level criteria, the NRC says.
“Water level is rising in the intake structure due to a combination of a rising tide, wind direction and storm surge. It is anticipated water levels will begin to abate within the next several hours,” the NRC says.
The NRC added that as of 9 p.m. EDT, no nuclear power plants had to shut down as a result of the storm, adding that “all plants remain in a safe condition, with emergency equipment available if needed and NRC inspectors on-site.”
The government agency noted that the NRC has inspectors providing 24-hour coverage of all plants that could be affected by the storm, including Oyster Creek; Salem and Hope Creek, in Hancocks Bridge, N.J.; Calvert Cliffs, in Lusby, Md.; Limerick, in Limerick Township, Pa.; Peach Bottom, in Delta, Pa.; Three Mile Island, in Middletown, Pa.; Susquehanna, in Salem Township, Pa.; Indian Point, in Buchanan, N.Y.; and Millstone, in Waterford, Conn.
More…



Hurricane Sandy: Problems at Five Nuke Plants By MARK SCHONE
Oct. 30, 2012
The nation’s oldest nuclear plant declared an alert and a second plant just 40 miles from New York City was forced to shut down power as five different nuke plants in Hurricane Sandy’s path experienced problems during the storm.
Indian Point in Buchanan, New York, on the Hudson River north of New York City, automatically shut power to its unit 3 on Monday night "as a result of an electrical grid disturbance," according to Entergy, the plant’s operator.
The connection between the generator and the offsite grid was lost, and the unit is designed to shut down to protect itself from electrical damage. Entergy said there was no release of radioactivity, no damage to equipment, and no threat to the public health.
"At Indian Point yesterday the river level and wind had no impact on plant operation," said a spokesman. Another unit at the plant continues to operate, and the company expects unit 3 to return to service within days.
Operators also declared an alert at the nation’s oldest nuclear plant, Oyster Creek in Lacey Township, New Jersey, on Monday evening after the center of Sandy made landfall, "due to water exceeding certain high water level criteria in the plant’s water intake structure."
The alert level is the "the second lowest of four action levels," as defined by the NRC.
More…







Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is a picture of some terrifying storm damage from Hurricane Sandy.

Jim’s Mailbox

October 30, 2012, at 11:52 am
by Jim Sinclair

Jim,

Here is a good recap of the countries that have abandoned the dollar as the world’s currency in the last few months.
CIGA Yahn




The Invisible Hand Is A Master of What the Public Ignores CIGA Eric
Those frustrated by timing gold have two choices.  Remove opinion and emotion by (1) turning off the quote machine and refrain from using leverage going forward, or (2) through mathematical study of money flows, confidence, and time to interpret the market.  The latter is much harder than the former.
Those expecting gold to transition from the power D-wave decline (DOWN) to C-wave advance (UP), thus, skipping the AB transition fail to recognize the importance of price management by the invisible hand to prevent what Jim Sinclair describes as follows:
The more money you create, the more money you must continue to create until it goes to infinity. You go cold turkey on money creation, you unleash the economic wrath of hell in the entire Western world. It all comes down in one great implosion.
Russia and China would act immediately economically to take full and powerful advantage of your error in application. You have to wean a drug addict off the drug in order to not kill him in recovery.
This stakes of this monetary game, not widely understood or well-played, are extremely high.
The secular bull market follows a basic ABCD cycle.  AB transitions transfer ownership of the trend from weak to strong hands before the powerful C-wave advance due to start in 2013.  While the investment world tends to focus solely on price, they completely ignore money flows, confidence (chart 1 and 2), and TIME.  The invisible hand profits from a rising trend without heavy long side exposure because its the master of what the public ignores.
Chart 1:  University of Michigan Consumer Expectations (CE) and Gold:  A Correlation Study
Chart 2:  London P.M. Fixed Gold (GOLD) AND Gold to University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Ratio (GOLD/CE) or Gold to Confidence Ratio.


Headline:  Consumer sentiment highest in five years
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Though down from a preliminary report, final consumer sentiment in October reached a five-year high amid brighter views on future and current conditions.
The final reading of the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index edged down to 82.6 — the highest final reading since September 2007 — from an initially reported 83.1.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a final October level of 83, compared with 78.3 in September. See economic calendar.
Source:  marketwatch.com
More…



Austerity Will Not Be The Path To Prosperity in Western Economies CIGA Eric
Hubert Hoover chose austerity as the path to prosperity in 1930.  This choice handed the 1932 election to Roosevelt.
Roosevelt proposed in his first "hundred days," a sweeping program to bring recovery to business and agriculture, relief to the unemployed and to those in danger of losing farms and homes, and reform, especially through the establishment of the Tennessee Valley Authority.
Gold hoarded as a hedge against poor centralized management needed to be confiscated in order to devalue the dollar.  Confiscation and revaluation of the gold from $20/oz to $35/oz (or devaluation of the dollar) in 1933-1934 functioned in a similar manner as today’s QE.
Headline: Spain retail sales decimated by VAT hike
MADRID (Reuters) – Spanish retail sales fell at their fastest pace on record in September as already battered consumer confidence took another hit from a hike in value added tax, driving many shoppers to trade down to cheaper products.
Sales fell 10.9 percent year on year, Monday’s National Statistics Institute data showed, reflecting an economy struggling through its second recession in three years and plagued by chronically high unemployment.
The drop was the biggest in calendar-adjusted terms since current records began in January 2004, and marked the 27th monthly decline in a row.
Spain has been in recession since the first quarter of the year and is not likely to grow again until late in 2013, according to official estimates that many economists consider optimistic.
The country had the highest unemployment rate in the European Union in August – 25.1 percent – according to EU data.
That figure is expected to rise further as a large public deficit forces the government to implement deeper spending cuts and further tax hikes to persuade markets it can control its finances. It increased sales tax on September 1.
Source:  finance.yahoo.com
More…


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