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Where The July Jobs Were: "Obamacare Again Offset Weak Industrial, Consumer Sector"
Where were the July jobs? As our friends at Southbay Research point out, "Obamacare jobs offset weak Industrial and Consumer payrolls"
So much for payrolls tracking tax withholdings. With many
expecting a payrolls whisper number to come below the consensus print
of 180K, moments ago the BLS reported that July payrolls soared by
255K, above the highest Wall Street forecast, and a number made even
more impressive by the upward revision to the June print from 287K to
292K.
"Even at $66 I remain a solid buyer."
In a miraculous case of deja vu all over again,
after cratering for the first 5 months of the year (confirming an
'opposition' narrative of the economic weakness underlying a record
high stock market), the jobs market has suddenly surged... now where have we seen this before?
As the pre-election ramp up in jobs data continues with this morning's big beat, it appears good news is good news for stocks as the USD surges and bonds and bullion are dumped post-payrolls...
Unprecedented expansion of credit, wage inflation and
much-needed limits on the power of central banks to give away billions
to oligarchs will generate inflation. The central planners have
successfully masked real inflation behind a smokescreen of official
statistics, but eventually a wind will rise that blows the smokescreen
away, and the reality of rising inflation will break the back of the
financial-political status quo.
After the recent surge in terrorist attacks on US soils
conducted by ISIS-affiliated refugees who had entered the country
thanks to Chancellor Merkel's "Open Door" policy, we expected that popular support for Merkel would once again drop in the polls, but not even we expected such a dramatic move.
As the world awaits the next in the series of "most important
jobs numbers ever," which has now been shown as only relevant to the
degree by which it moves the S&P 500 higher (or god forbid lower),
consensus expectations are for a goldilocks 180k gain in jobs and
flat 4.9% unemployment rate. The market will be looking to see if the
Fed's recent optimism surrounding labor market conditions (despite a collapse in their own LMCI)
are justified and if the employment figures of July and August
demonstrate a new trend in conjunction with June ahead of the September
meeting... and of course the 'election adjustment'.
Nicaragua is set to hold presidential elections in November
2016, where Ortega will run for his third term (after changing the
constitutional term limits). Evidently, Ortega is the overwhelming
favorite given that he banned the main opposition party from running. Moreover, last week he removed all political opposition from Congress, essentially guaranteeing himself a victory.
With all eyes on today's jobs report, where consensus expects a
180K payrolls gain, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all
rise amid a surge in government debt as markets digest the BOE's
"kitchen sink" easing for a second day. But please don't overthink it.
In deja vu fashion, Bloomberg summarizes the action simply as "stocks rose around the world on speculation central bank stimulus measures will support the global economy." We've heard that just a few times before.
For the second day after The White House was
forced to admit dropping pallets full of $400 million of
non-USD-denominated cash to Iran 'coinciding' with the release of four
hostages and the Iran nuclear deal; the administration refuses to answer one simple question...
Far from a sign of good things for the economy as whole,
recently declining oil prices now tend to indicate a weakening economy
that was already in a weak state. It turns out that the oil
price and the economy are now in a very tight relationship, and we are
going to be seeing them together a lot for a long time to come.
The bottom line is that the game is rigged and if you're going to play it then you better be well trained at finding the shenanigans...
Though Europe does not have the rates of gun violence the United States continues to grapple with, European governments have made over a billion euros by fueling gun violence in the Middle East and North Africa.
On this issue, the case is overwhelming...
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