It's Official: S&P Cuts Greece To (Selective) Default From CC
From S&P: "We lowered our sovereign credit ratings on Greece to 'SD' following the Greek government's retroactive insertion of collective action clauses (CACs) in the documentation of certain series of its sovereign debt on Feb. 23, 2012....We do not generally view CACs (to the extent that they are included in an original issuance) as changing a government's incentive to pay its obligations in full and on time. However, we believe that the retroactive insertion of CACs will diminish bondholders' bargaining power in an upcoming debt exchange. Indeed, Greece launched such an exchange offer on Feb. 24, 2012." Translation: Greece better have that PSI in the bag or else the "Selective" goes away and "Greece would face an imminent outright payment default." Our question for former Goldmanite and current ECB head Mario Dragi: does the ECB allow defaulted bonds to be pledged as collateral within the Euro System?Name The Bubble
As the title suggests, please name the latest bubble:
Merkel Wins Greek Aid Vote After Damage Warning
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
Incalculable damage for whom? The Greek people whom have already had their sovereignty and control of their gold reserves challenged? The Federal Reserve and by extension the American taxpayer when the back door loans fail or must be repaid with devalued currency? Headline: Merkel Wins Greek Aid Vote After Damage Warning Chancellor Angela Merkel won a parliamentary vote on Greek aid after... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
Broad Risk-Off Day - Apart From Stocks
Today
was another tale of two worlds as stocks outperformed everything as
broadly speaking risk assets leaked notably lower post Europe's close
and accelerated post Nowotny. Financials led the exuberance (in stocks not credit)
on a day when volume was certainly not terrible and credit market
indices tracked stocks (ES) almost tick for tick (which along with desk
chatter suggested little activity in credit today as credit dealers
reracked along with futures movements). HYG dipped significantly into the close - after a decent drop in the middle of the day that was saved - only to be held up by its VWAP. For the second day in a row, VIX closed higher on a higher S&P close and implied correlation is sending those trend fade warnings once again but it was the broad-based disregard for any and every other asset class today (by stocks) -
as Treasuries remained near their low yields of the day, Crude, Gold
and the commodity complex all sold off, FX carry reverted back to
risk-off after Europe closed, and apart from a minor leak higher in the
last hour bond curves were notably flatter - that was surprising (and
unusual in recent weeks/months). In the medium-term, credit remains considerably less sanguine than stocks
here and the late day disappointment from Nowotny ahead of LTRO2 may
have just taken the jam out of the equity market's doughnut for now.Dow Jones Crosses 13,000 22 Times And... Closes Under
It
was quite a day for retirement planners everywhere as the decisions to
show up to work or not tomorrow have been on-again, off-again no less
than 22 times today as the all-important Dow 13,000 maginot line was
criss-crossed frequently only to end on a disappointingly negative note -
washing away all those glorious gains in the last 30LTRO 2 102: Projected LTRO Take Up By Bank
Earlier today, we presented a Top-Down analysis
via SocGen of Wednesday's ECB massive extended Discount Window
operation, also known as the second 3 Year LTRO operation (whereby we
once again remember that unlike the Fed, the ECB is fully unaware of the
adverse consequences of the stigma associated with borrowing last
ditch liquidity, but when all else has failed, one has to do what one
has to do). And while we will conclude our LTRO preview series with
LTRO 2 103: Bottoms-Up, as a courtesy fo those who are fine-tuning
their LTRO stigma trade (long banks that will not participate in the upcoming LTRO, short banks
that will) SocGen's prediction of which banks will take down LTRO 2
funding, and how much. Draghi said there is no stigma trade. We proved him wrong, at least in the interim. LTRO 2 will finally decide who is right and who is wrong.Did Nowotny Just Take The Market's Punchbowl Away?
It should come as no surprise to readers as it has been long pointed out that the need (and expectation) for all "transitory" measures to become permanent and exponentially larger to maintain this mirage of sustainability, but comments from ECB's Nowotny just took the shine off the day as Gold, Oil, Financials, ES, and AAPL all dropped notably (pulling back to TSY's outperformance) as he strongly suggested this is it (via Bloomberg)...
- *NOWOTNY SAYS SMP IS MORE OR LESS ON HOLD
- *NOWOTNY SAYS 3-YEAR LOANS WILL NOT BECOME A REGULAR FEATURE
- *NOWOTNY SAYS NOT `CONVINCED' ABOUT CASE FOR HIGHER FIREWALL
- *NOWOTNY SAYS ECB HAS PROBLEM OF ADDICTED BANKS
Brodsky On Buffet On Gold
We have repeatedly voiced our views on Buffett's relentless bashing of the only asset that is a guaranteed protection against now exponential currency debasement and central planner, and other PhD economist, stupidity, most recently here. We are happy that other, more politically correct asset managers, have decided to share how they fell, and take the crony capitalist to task. The first (of many we are sure), are Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky of QBAMCO who have just penned "Golden Boy" or the much needed "high society" response to the old man from Omaha: "Buffett may be a sage, a wizard, and an oracle when it comes to nominal relative value pricing of financial assets, but it is well worth noting that Buffett’s proclamations are not necessarily worthy of being considered “fact” in matters unrelated to finance, just as the legendary Joe Paterno’s judgment seems to have been sorely lacking when it came to sorting out matters unrelated to a winning football program....We must assume his aggressive gold comments have been meant to force the price of gold lower. (We do not know why he is so interested in doing so though we do have a reasonable theory, for another time). We strongly disagree with Mr. Buffett’s views and we thought it would be best to explore his comments and provide our counter-arguments."Bank Bonds Bucking The Bullish Stock Trend
As the financials ETF, XLF, jumps from down 1.25% to up over 0.75% today, we note that credit markets for the major US banks are anything but exuberant.
In the short-term, US bank credit remains significantly weaker, having
broken its trend on February 9th, than the broad ETF or individual
bank stocks would suggest. We have seen European credit spreads for
banks come back off their worst levels - and at the same time, bank
stock prices revert downwards to meet that depressed credit
perspective. In the US, stocks remain euphoric and credit has not staged any comeback yet inferring a 5-6% drop in XLF
(or rally in credit of course). Perhaps the USD-denominated nature of
stocks is 'mispriced' relative to the risk-denominated nature of credit
spreads as liquidity floats all risk assets on hope of LTRO2 et al.How Much Is That Greek Doggy Worth In The PSI Window?
Credit markets are not priced for Greek PSI Nirvana.
With the Greek government bonds (GGBs) and CDS basis package trading at
its highest in six months (over 96% of Par) and GGBs trading below 20%
of Par (compared to considerably higher 'expected' PSI-based
valuations), it seems the market is much more convinced of an imminent
credit trigger and no PSI deal than headlines are crowing about.
Combining the new 30Y bond, 2Y EFSF add-on, and GDP warrant, BARCAP
arrives at a price of around 26.6% of Par for PSI-able bonds -
considerably above the current depressed price of GGBs and together with
S&P's negative outlook change to the EFSF this morning, it would appear that market participants are not expecting a deal to get done by March 20th.
Perhaps that is why hope is so high this morning for a quadrillion Euro
LTRO2 to see them through? That should help oil prices!David Rosenberg: "It's A Gas, Gas, Gas!"
"It Is completely ironic that we would be experiencing one of the most powerful cyclical upswings in the stock market since the recession ended at a time when we are clearly coming off the poorest quarter for earnings... There is this pervasive view that the U.S. economy is in better shape because a 2.2% sliver of GDP called the housing market is showing nascent signs of recovery. What about the 70% called the consumer?...Let's keep in mind that the jump in crude prices has occurred even with the Saudis producing at its fastest clip in 30 years - underscoring how tight the backdrop is... Throw in rising gasoline prices and real incomes are in a squeeze, and there is precious little room for the personal savings rate to decline from current low levels." - David RosenbergHowever, this regularity and predictability should gall you instead. At it’s core, it is sheer lawlessness or, stated differently, an absolute indifference to the rule of law or the concept of free markets. In a “normal” course of events, one wouldn’t dare attempt to manipulate a market for fear of being caught. This fear would undoubtedly cause someone attempting to manipulate a market to do so in darkness, so as to avoid detection and, ultimately, prosecution.
Read More @ TFMetalsReport.com
[Ed. Note: Part 1.]
by Ashvin Pandurangi, MarketOracle.co.uk:
There
have been many forms of “debt slavery” throughout history, and almost
everyone is chained to the oppressive financial, corporatist system now
in one way or another. Although, this fact has not even remotely sunk in
for millions of people who, unfortunately, have absolutely no clue how
bad it can get. The real issue here, however, is not necessarily what
people will have to do to survive the upcoming storms. Rather, it is
what they will be forced to do to remain a functioning part of the
system under threat of excessive monetary punishment, physical
confinement or violence to them and/or those close to them. So, one must
be financially/coercively attached to the system to be a “debt slave”.
Read More @ MarketOracle.co.uk
by Ashvin Pandurangi, MarketOracle.co.uk:
There
have been many forms of “debt slavery” throughout history, and almost
everyone is chained to the oppressive financial, corporatist system now
in one way or another. Although, this fact has not even remotely sunk in
for millions of people who, unfortunately, have absolutely no clue how
bad it can get. The real issue here, however, is not necessarily what
people will have to do to survive the upcoming storms. Rather, it is
what they will be forced to do to remain a functioning part of the
system under threat of excessive monetary punishment, physical
confinement or violence to them and/or those close to them. So, one must
be financially/coercively attached to the system to be a “debt slave”.Read More @ MarketOracle.co.uk
by Stephen Lendman:
Major
media scoundrels can’t bear reporting good news they’d rather suppress,
so they downplay and disparage it best they can. More on that below.
On Sunday, Syria’s state TV showed huge pro-Assad crowds in Damascus’ Saba Bahrat Square. By national referendum, they were eager to support constitutional reforms. They also backed state security force efforts against Western-backed killer gangs.
Russian Eurasian Institution head Alexander Doglen also endorsed draft constitutional changes. Islamic scholar Abdul-Rahman Ali al-Dalaa said they boost human dignity and religious freedom.
On February 27, Syria’s Interior Ministry announced Sunday’s impressive results. From 7AM, 14,185 polling centers opened across Syria’s governorates, as well as at border crossings, airports, mobile desert areas, and other locations.
Read More @ SJLendman.Blogspot.com
Major
media scoundrels can’t bear reporting good news they’d rather suppress,
so they downplay and disparage it best they can. More on that below.On Sunday, Syria’s state TV showed huge pro-Assad crowds in Damascus’ Saba Bahrat Square. By national referendum, they were eager to support constitutional reforms. They also backed state security force efforts against Western-backed killer gangs.
Russian Eurasian Institution head Alexander Doglen also endorsed draft constitutional changes. Islamic scholar Abdul-Rahman Ali al-Dalaa said they boost human dignity and religious freedom.
On February 27, Syria’s Interior Ministry announced Sunday’s impressive results. From 7AM, 14,185 polling centers opened across Syria’s governorates, as well as at border crossings, airports, mobile desert areas, and other locations.
Read More @ SJLendman.Blogspot.com
by Simon Black, Sovereign Man:
Banking privacy is dead. Completely, totally dead. Murdered, really. The US government is the assailant, and FATCA is the murder weapon.
We’ve talked about this a few times before– FATCA is the heinously insidiously piece of legislation that the Honorable Barrack Hussein Obama passed into law in 2010 as part of the “Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act”.
There were no hiring incentives, and there was no restoration of employment. But any vestiges of banking privacy were destroyed.
In brief, FATCA has two key concepts. First, it requires an additional (and completely unnecessary) layer of reporting from all US taxpayers who have ‘foreign financial accounts’ at ‘foreign financial institutions.’ Though as we have discussed before, both of these critical terms are ridiculously and flagrantly ambiguous, putting the onus entirely on the taxpayer.
Read More @ SovereignMan.com
Banking privacy is dead. Completely, totally dead. Murdered, really. The US government is the assailant, and FATCA is the murder weapon.
We’ve talked about this a few times before– FATCA is the heinously insidiously piece of legislation that the Honorable Barrack Hussein Obama passed into law in 2010 as part of the “Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act”.
There were no hiring incentives, and there was no restoration of employment. But any vestiges of banking privacy were destroyed.
In brief, FATCA has two key concepts. First, it requires an additional (and completely unnecessary) layer of reporting from all US taxpayers who have ‘foreign financial accounts’ at ‘foreign financial institutions.’ Though as we have discussed before, both of these critical terms are ridiculously and flagrantly ambiguous, putting the onus entirely on the taxpayer.
Read More @ SovereignMan.com
"I'm from the Government...and I'm here to Help"... RUN.....
Solicitation calls for camps to be ready for occupancy within 72 hours
by Paul Joseph Watson, InfoWars.com:
by Paul Joseph Watson, InfoWars.com:
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is
looking for contractors to construct temporary emergency camps inside
the United States which can be ready for occupancy within a 72 hour time
period and used to house emergency responders as well as “displaced
citizens”.
The National Responder Support Camp contract, posted on the Federal Business Opportunities
website, calls on contractors to “provide all necessary supervision,
professional staff, labor support, material, supplies and equipment as
necessary to make a RSC within a disaster-impacted area anywhere within
the CONUS (Continental United States) within 72 hours after
notification.”
The camps are primarily designed to house emergency
responders, but will also be utilized to shelter “displaced citizens,”
who will be “given the first opportunities for employment within the
camp,” according to the solicitation. The camps will be able to service
up to 2,000 people at one time.
Read More @ InfoWars.com
by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan.com:
North
American educators and law enforcement officials continue to take
zero-tolerance gun policies to obscenely ridiculous levels. The latest
hypersensitive over-reaction comes to us from Canada, where educators
contacted local law enforcement after a 4 year old kindergartener drew a
picture of her daddy shooting a gun at monsters and bad guys.
In the modern day Police State, everything is a crime, everyone is a suspect, and government myrmidons are all too willing to turn snitch at the first sign of ‘unusual behavior.’
Read More @ SHTFPlan.com
North
American educators and law enforcement officials continue to take
zero-tolerance gun policies to obscenely ridiculous levels. The latest
hypersensitive over-reaction comes to us from Canada, where educators
contacted local law enforcement after a 4 year old kindergartener drew a
picture of her daddy shooting a gun at monsters and bad guys.In the modern day Police State, everything is a crime, everyone is a suspect, and government myrmidons are all too willing to turn snitch at the first sign of ‘unusual behavior.’
Read More @ SHTFPlan.com
by Ludwig von Mises (in 1949), Mises.org:
In
the boom period that ended in 1929, labor unions had succeeded in
almost all countries in enforcing wage rates higher than those which the
market, if manipulated only by migration barriers, would have
determined. These wage rates already produced in many countries
institutional unemployment of a considerable amount while credit
expansion was still going on at an accelerated pace.
When finally the inescapable depression came and commodity prices began to drop, the labor unions, firmly supported by the governments, even by those disparaged as antilabor, clung stubbornly to their high-wages policy. They either flatly denied permission for any cut in nominal wage rates or conceded only insufficient cuts. The result was a tremendous increase in institutional unemployment. (On the other hand, those workers who retained their jobs improved their standard of living as their hourly real wages went up.)
Read More @ Mises.org
In
the boom period that ended in 1929, labor unions had succeeded in
almost all countries in enforcing wage rates higher than those which the
market, if manipulated only by migration barriers, would have
determined. These wage rates already produced in many countries
institutional unemployment of a considerable amount while credit
expansion was still going on at an accelerated pace.When finally the inescapable depression came and commodity prices began to drop, the labor unions, firmly supported by the governments, even by those disparaged as antilabor, clung stubbornly to their high-wages policy. They either flatly denied permission for any cut in nominal wage rates or conceded only insufficient cuts. The result was a tremendous increase in institutional unemployment. (On the other hand, those workers who retained their jobs improved their standard of living as their hourly real wages went up.)
Read More @ Mises.org
a
rapid denial by the Swedish Central Bank, the IMF has admitted to a
data entry error in its latest release on changes in Central Bank gold
holdings.
by Lawrence Williams, MineWeb.com:
LONDON – In an embarrassing admission, the IMF put out a statement today as follows: “Due to a data entry error, the latest update of International Financial Statistics included an incorrect figure for Sweden’s gold holdings at end-January. Sweden’s gold holdings were 4.042 million ounces at the end of January 2012, unchanged from the previous month. The IMF apologizes for any inconvenience caused and will correct the online database shortly. ”
Read More @ MineWeb.com
by Lawrence Williams, MineWeb.com:
LONDON – In an embarrassing admission, the IMF put out a statement today as follows: “Due to a data entry error, the latest update of International Financial Statistics included an incorrect figure for Sweden’s gold holdings at end-January. Sweden’s gold holdings were 4.042 million ounces at the end of January 2012, unchanged from the previous month. The IMF apologizes for any inconvenience caused and will correct the online database shortly. ”
Read More @ MineWeb.com
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