Scandal: Greece To Receive "Negative" Cash From "Second Bailout" As It Funds Insolvent European Banks

Earlier today, we learned the first stunner of the Greek bailout package, which courtesy of some convoluted transmission mechanisms would result in some, potentially quite many, Greek workers actually paying to retain their jobs: i.e., negative salaries. Now, having looked at the Eurogroup's statement on the Greek bailout, we find another very creative use of "negative" numbers. And by creative we mean absolutely shocking and scandalous. First, as a reminder, even before the current bailout mechanism was in place, Greece barely saw 20% of any actual funding, with the bulk of the money going to European and Greek banks (of which the former ultimately also ended up funding the ECB and thus European banks). Furthermore, we already know that as part of the latest set of conditions of the second Greek bailout, an 'Escrow Account" would be established: this is simply a means for Greek creditors to have a senior claims over any "bailout" cash that is actually disbursed for things such as, you know, a Greek bailout, where the money actually trickles down where it is most needed - the Greek citizens. Here is where it just got surreal. It turns out that not only will Greece not see a single penny from the Second Greek bailout, whose entire Use of Proceeds will be limited to funding debt interest and maturity payments, but the country will actually have to fund said escrow! You read that right: the Greek bailout #2 is nothing but a Greek-funded bailout of Europe's insolvent banks... and the Greek constitution is about to be changed to reflect this!

 

 

It's Official - Greece Unveils The Negative Salary, And A Whole New Meaning For "Pay To Play"

We thought we had seen it all. It turns out we hadn't. The country that gave the world the alphabet, philosophy, and plates with funny sexually ambiguous drawings on them, has outdone itself again. Because beginning this month some Greeks will have to pay for the privilege of having a job.

Zombie Housing Market Chronicles - Fed Fails Again To Stimulate A Housing Recovery

While today the association of real estate advertising agents known as the NAR will tell us that the home market is improving - an economic observation which we will completely ignore as any data out of the NAR is now proven to be manipulated and fraudulent, a far better indication of the ongoing implosion in the housing market, and more importantly - the sheer powerlessness of the Fed to do anything about it - came out of the latest weekly Mortgage Brokers Association, which showed that refi applications were down 4.8% W/W, while purchases slid 2.9%, after collapsing 8.4% in the past week. This has taken the Purchase Application index back to the September lows, which just happens to be the lowest print in 16 years. And while this in itself would be ok if not exactly good, it took place at a time when the 30 year mortgage rate was down to all time record lows! In other words, Bernanke's sole prescription to fix the broken housing market diagnosis - low mortgage rates, has now been proven to be a complete disaster, even as Obama does everything in his power to get debt repudiation for deadbeats (at the expense of everyone else of course) and fails. So: what's the next plan?









India's Government Is Told To Start Discouraging Gold Imports - Or Else
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=145713&sn=Detai...

US Dollar to Resume Downtrend?
http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/newsdesk/us-dollar-to-resume-downtrend...

Who Could Emerge As The GOP Compromise Candidate At The Convention?
http://www.ology.com/politics/who-could-emerge-gop-compromise-candidate-conve...

Obama Imposing National School Curriculum
http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/obama-imposing-national-school-curriculum/

Maine "Recount" Comparison - Spreadsheet
http://www.dailypaul.com/214952/maine-results-comparison

The U.N. Threat to Internet Freedom
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204792404577229074023195322.html

Emerging Markets Have Become Very Overbought In The Near Term

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago

Actually, what is interesting, in this rally, since early January, emerging markets have done best. India is up 14 percent, and the currency has strengthened. So you’re up almost 20 percent, in essentially, a month’s time. So all these markets have become overbought—near term. - *in Fox Business* Related, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP) *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* more »

 

 

Greek 1 Year Bond Hits 770%

The Doc at SilverDoctors - 1 hour ago

Only two days after passing the ominous 666%, the Greek 1-year yield has just hit *770%*!! This is rapidly getting out of hand. Office pool for the date/ time the 1-year crosses 1,000% anyone!?! Read more » more »

 

 

New Greek Crisis "Biggest Risk for Gold", Bank of England "Has Left Door Open" for More QE, Goldman Sachs says "Long Gold Position Recommended"

The Doc at SilverDoctors - 1 hour ago

If Goldman is telling its clients to go long gold here...how vicious of a cartel smash are they planning? Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs repeated its bullish view on gold prices Wednesday. "We expect US real interest rates to remain lower for longer given our US economics team's expectation for US economic growth to remain slow through 2012," said a note from the bank. "Consequently, we expect gold prices to continue to rise through 2012, reaching $1,940 an ounce in 12 months, and *we continue to recommend a long gold position.*" Read more » more »

 

 

Gold Bullion...or Cash?

The Doc at SilverDoctors - 1 hour ago

'Gold Bullion or Cash' (Goldnomics 2012) is an excellent must see short video about gold bullion and cash. It shows how gold has retained value throughout history and why gold is safer than cash in the long term. Legendary investors, institutions, central banks and the prudent are buying gold today. 'GoldNomics 2012' shows gold is an important safe haven asset and an essential investment and saving diversification in these uncertain times. Read more »

When Risk Is Disconnected From Consequence, The System Itself Is At Risk

Since the system itself has disconnected risk from consequence with backstops, guarantees and illusory claims of financial security, then it is has lost the essential feedback required to adapt to changing circumstances. As the risk being transferred to the system rises geometrically, the system is incapable of recognizing, measuring or assessing the risk being transferred until it is so large it overwhelms the system in a massive collapse/default. The consortium has only two ways to create the illusion of solvency when the punter's $100 million bet goes bad: borrow $100 million from credulous possessors of capital or counterfeit it on a printing press. These are precisely the strategies being pursued by central banks and states around the globe. BUt since risk remains disconnected from gain/loss, then capital and risk both remain completely mispriced. Risk is being transferred to the entire global financial system at a fantastic rate, because counterfeiting money or borrowing it on this scale to cover losses creates new self-reinforcing feedbacks of risk....At some unpredictable stick/slip point, the accumulated risk will cause the system to implode like a supernova star. 

Europe's Nash Equilibrium - A Tightly Stretched Rubber Band?

In the ongoing 'game of chicken' in Europe (playing out between the core and the periphery as the main two players) it appears we are once again at a point of inflection in the Nash Equilibrium that exists only in the minds of the Eurogroup leaders. As Credit Suisse notes, the continued existence of the Euro will hugely depend on the incentive structure of its members to defend it (and implicitly this means costs and retaliations - downsides - must be appreciated and allocated). These incentives evolve through time (and interventions can have unintended consequences) and brinksmanship and threats (Greece's referendum comments for instance) can improve outcomes in the short-term. Most importantly, it seems the market is among the best mediators to 'fix' each player's action and outcome but each intervention reduces that effect, 'time becomes money' as costs are increasing through procrastination. This leaves the asymmetric interests of the players (remember how exposed the core is to the periphery?) likely to increase break-up risks with Credit Suisse seeing the logical and intended consequence 'an increase in stress' - with either a 'catastrophic' break-up (or member exit) or a long, painful and volatile continuation of the crisis that can only be slowly improved by some type of inter-European enforceable contract. The more intervention, the lower the immediate impact of inaction and the higher the pent-up volatility in the system before threats are taken seriously (or consequences admitted).

Complete Latest Hedge Fund Holdings Analysis

The fine folks at Street of Walls have been kind enough to provide us with their latest 13F breakdown which looks at the position changes across America's 30 largest and most important hedge funds. While we have already focused on some of the more entertaining ones, and tracked the recent rush back into gold, those curious about what the latest hedge fund hotel stocks are (aside from Apple of course) are encouraged to peruse the following exhaustive report.

NAR Continues Tradition Of Making Mockery Of Itself, Revises December Home Sales From +5% to -0.5%

And here is yet another reason why we will permanently ignore the pathologically lying real estate syndicate known as the NAR (link): December data was just revised from +5% to -0.5% (from 4.61 million to 4.38 million). Since December market expectations were for a +5.2% print, imagine the sheer horror the algos would have been faced with had the real number been reported on time. Needless to say, if this number had been unrevised, the January +4.3% increase would have been a decline. This way the aglos focused only on the immediate moment get two months of beats in a row. Huzzah. Anyone who trades anything based on this borderline criminal self-reporting enterprise needs to have their head checked. In other news, when will the LIBOR investigation finally target the NAR?

Why The Core Needs To Save The Periphery

We have discussed, at length, the symbiotic (or perhaps parasitic) relationship between the banking system in Europe and the governments (read Central Banks). The LTRO has done nothing but bring them into a closer and more mutually-reinforcing chaotic relationship as we suspect many of the Italian and Spanish banks have gone all-in on the ultimate event risk trade in their government's debt. It should come as no surprise to anyone that the bulk of the Greek bailout money will flow directly to the European banking system and Credit Suisse has recently updated the bank exposure (by country) to peripheral sovereign debt that shows just how massively dependent each peripheral nation's banking system is on its own government for capital and more importantly, how the core (France and Germany) remains massively exposed (in terms of Tier 1 Capital) to the PIIGS. Retroactive (negative) salary cuts may well not be the worst of what is to come as the bankers deleveraging returns to bite them in a phoenix-like resurrection of sovereign risk on now even-more sovereign-bloated (and levered) balance sheets.

No, This Is Not Mount Olympus...

...This is a chart of the Greek bank stock index, which has gone from an all out demented euphoria to suicidal depression in 5 days, as the rumor that Greece is "saved" has been replaced with the reality that Greece is still "completely broke" - if you bought on Monday like most momos, on the expectation that the torrid surge higher would continue, you have now lost 24%. We are awaiting the latest January deposit data from the Greek banking system eagerly, as something tells us Greek citizens, who are already congregating at Syntagma square for today's daily riot, did not follow Venizelos' advice to either "WORK, WORK, WORK" or for that matter "DEPOSIT, DEPOSIT, DEPOSIT."

Greek 1 Year Hits 763%

If it seems like it was only 5 days ago that Greek bonds could be had for the blockbuster yield of 638%, it is because it was As of today, the same bond was yielding an even more ridiculous 763% (and remember when the MSM fluffers were telling you to buy these at the bargain basement yield of 100% in September 2011?). This price has nothing to do with the Fitch action on the country which is irrelevant, and all to do with the fact that, as noted previously, the cash coupon on the post-reorg bonds was cut once again, this time from 3.6% to just 2%, and the current price on non UK-law bonds is merely indicative of the cash on cash return investors in these bonds expect to make. It also means that the market expects a redefault in just about 1 year. And yes, we realize that at bond prices in the high teens, the yield curve is absolutely meaningless but it is still highly entertaining to watch as Greek bond yields are about to hit quadruple digits, which in itself is very indicative of the recoveries one can expect in a global sovereign ponzi, and yet the powers that be tell us this is a perfectly normal phenomenon, i.e., there is no default, and thus there is no reason to hedge for it. Alas, the whole world has gone mad.

Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: February 22

The softer PMI reports have weighed on risk markets, which as a result saw equities trade lower throughout the session. In addition to that, market participants continued to fret over the latest Greek debt swap proposals, which according to the Greek CAC bill will give bond holders at least 10 days to decide on new bond terms following the public invitation, and the majority required to change bond terms is set at 2/3 of represented bond holders. Looking elsewhere, EUR/USD spot is flat, while GBP/USD is trading sharply lower after the latest BoE minutes revealed that BoE's Posen and Miles voted for GBP 75bln increase in APF. Going forward, the second half of the session sees the release of the latest Housing data from the US, as well as the USD 35bln 5y note auction by the US Treasury.

A Breather And Some Time To Sort Through Some Greek Details

After months (it seems like years) of trying to avoid a CDS Credit Event, it looks like one is inevitable.  The Greek 5 year CDS is at least 70 bid which may be the highest ever.  The game plan seems to be that Greece will put in retroactive CAC laws.  The PSI will come in below 100%.  Greece will trigger the CAC clauses on the Greek bonds, and we will get 100% participation in all those bonds, and we will get a Credit Event.  The interesting part is that depending on what they manage to do with English law bonds, the only bonds outstanding (not in the hands of the central bank only bonds, and troika loans) will be the new bonds.  If they start CAC’ing each bond, it is possible that there will be no existing bonds outstanding left.  Settlement would be based on the new bond (yes, ISDA has a Sovereign Restructured Deliverable Obligation clause – Section 2.16 of the definitions).  With the amortization schedule in place (and not including any value attributable to the GDP strippable warrants), I get that the new bonds would trade at 30% of par with a yield of just over 13%.  I would be careful paying up for CDS here, because settlement will be against these new bonds, not existing bonds if every old bond is CAC’d.  And given the attitude out of Greece late yesterday, and harsh IMF demands, we may well see that.

Sentiment Weaker Following Euroarea PMI Contraction, Refutation Of "Technical Recession"

January's hopium catchphrase of the month was that Europe's recession would be "technical" which is simply a euphemism for our Fed's beloved word - "transitory." Based on the just released Euroarea PMI, we can scratch this Euro-accented "transitory" addition to the lexicon, because contrary to expectations that the Euroarea composite PMI would show expansion at 50.5, instead it came out at 49.7 - the manufacturing PMI was 49.0 on Exp of 49.4, while the Services PMI was 49.4, on hopes of expansion at 50.6, which as Reuters notes suggests that firms are still cutting prices to drum up business and reducing workforces to cut costs. This was accompanied by a overnight contraction in China, where the flash manufacturing PMI rose modestly from 48.8, but was again in contraction at 49.7. We would not be surprised if this is merely the sacrifice the weakest lamb in the pack in an attempt to get crude prices lower. So far this has failed to dent WTI much if at all following rapidly escalating Iran tensions. What is curious is that Germany and France continue to do far better than the rest of the Eurozone - just as America has decoupled from Europe, so apparently have Germany and France. This too is surely "sustainable."

Please consider making a small donation, to help cover some of the labor and costs to run this blog.

Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified