The Coming Economic Collapse, Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation/Hyperinflation, Weimar Germany, Euro Collapse,
Zimbabwe Hyperinflation, Survival in Economic Collapse, World Economic Collapse, Dollar Collapse,
What Would Happen If the Economy Collapsed,The Coming Economic Depression.
Gold and Silver Will Protect Your Wealth.
Want
to be a consummate stock picker and investor? Forget all you have
learned in business school, from fundamental or technical analysis, or
from years of trading: the only thing that matters is the position of
the sun: if it is rising, sell. If it is setting, buy. Rinse. Repeat.
Bank of America explains it just slightly more scientifically.
Earlier today, following the collapse in wholesale inventories, we noted the
"the second leg of the stool of main GDP drivers appears to be
splintering as Wholesale Inventories dropped MoM for the first time
since Dec09 (-0.1% vs +0.5% expectations). We patiently await LaVorgna's
GDP downgrade." As it turns out, JPM's Daniel Silver is the first to
pull the plug on the blind hope that US GDP is rising despite the rest
of the world imploding, and in the process euthanising the latest
iteration of the decoupling thesis which always appears to give the
bulls some hope that things in the US just may be fine this time around.
They never are.
The
last month has been a violent one for stock and bond investors but a
look at the forward curve for Crude Oil also tells a story of hugely
volatile moves. Oil has shifted from contango to backwardation in the
last month but it is today's dramatically disconnected move that has
many scratching their heads. As we approached the European close today,
oil started to rally and rally fast. Initial rumors of ECB printing
were quickly dismissed as gold and silver slid back but crude kept
going - all on its own. After being perfectly in sync with BTPs for the
last few days, we wonder if traders were short oil as their
hedge against European long risk exposures and the LCH margin call
forced liquidations and unwinds - idiosyncratically cracking the oil market back over $97.50.
Last time, America quadrupled its debt. The system is much more extended
now, and America cannot quadruple its debt again. Greece cannot double its
debt again. The next time around is going to be much worse. - *in CNBC.com*
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international
investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times,
Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and
is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*
To put US household debt levels into a historical perspective, in order
for US households to return to their long-term average for leverage
ratios and their historic relationship to GDP growth...
For years I have warned of the impending European
collapse. Now, as it is happening, we still have banks getting away with
nonsensical 60% writedowns on essentially worthless debt. LGD >
100+% -...
Last night we
discussed the repeated regime that has occurred in equity markets over
the last few days where we ramp in ES away from any other asset class
(FX, credit, TSY, commodity) only to fade overnight. This morning's
abrupt diminution of hope has once again caused ES to revert back to
its CONTEXTual reality
- trading more in line with broad risk assets for now. It appears that
again and again we are seeing the buy-the-dips beta-chasing that Art Cashin so eloquently pointed out this morning - and that is not working as the overwhelming macro/systemic conditions favor risk-off.
Yra’s conclusions are sound. Gold will re-enter the system, about that there is no question.
My conclusions is that a virtual reserve currency will be created
that is tradable by central banks only. It will be a super virtual
average of all major trading currencies with gold attached by a world
sort of M3 against gold, as a price, held in the implied guarantee
and/or currency.
The bullish outcome on gold as an end game is a cause of the intact
gold trend fought so hard from $248 to present day by media MOPE.
Notes From Underground: When I have Something to Say Sir I Am Going to Say It Now! (Phil Ochs) By Yra "The news item from the G-20 about Germany not willing to pledge its GOLD reserves
to guarantee the EFSF leads me to believe that the use of GOLD to
backstop DEBT is on the table. The U.S. has the largest GOLD RESERVES
with Germany second and the IMF third. Yes, IMF rules presently prevent
the use of its GOLD for collateral but with the G-20 seeking to become
more relevant in the current CREDIT CRISIS it would not surprise me if
the IMF HEAD Christine Lagarde didn’t find a way to utilize her legal
background and circumvent the rules. If the IMF leveraged it GOLD horde the market may see it as
bearish as it may resolve the immediate crisis but ultimately the
monetization of the world’s GOLD would lead to a bullish outcome; when
and at what price we will let the market tell us? This view may be a
fantasy but the German decision to deny Europe its GOLD holdings mean
that discussions are taking place. Oh and Italy is also in the Top 10 of
GOLD holdings. When it comes to Europe and finance it is similar to the movie
“BANG THE DRUM SLOWLY.” The veteran ball players entice the rookies into
a card game called TEGWAR (THE EXCITING GAME WITHOUT ANY RULES). That
seems to sum up the international financial system, especially Europe." More…
The endangered species in the Western World is on two legs – the pensioner.
No pension? You may still owe $30 000 on one- MSN Money Many economists think the US’s debt, aging population and slow ecnomic growth spell disaster for pensions. By MSN Money partner on Tue, Nov 8, 2011 4:35 PM Pension accounts for state and local government workers are
underfunded by $4 trillion, according to one recent analysis. If
America’s households were to split that tab today, each would have to
kick in $34,000. Don’t have that kind of cash on hand? Another option is to chip
away at the shortfall over 30 years starting now. That would cost
households $1,400 a year beyond what they pay in taxes today. A pension, for those who aren’t familiar with one, is like a 401k
plan in reverse. With a 401k, or defined contribution plan, a worker
knows how much he socks away, but not how much he will have at
retirement. That part depends upon investment returns. With a pension,
or defined benefit plan, a worker is told how much he will receive in
retirement. It’s up to the pension to put aside enough today. To do
that, pensions guess about future returns. The higher the returns they
assume, they less money they must save today. And therein lies the
problem. Most states assume a yearly return of around 8%, says Kil Huh, who
manages fiscal research for the Pew Center on the States, a think tank.
"In past decades, when investment markets boomed, they were able to
achieve those returns," he says. "Now they’re not even coming close." Indeed, whether states and local governments have a funding
problem under current rules depends on what markets do in coming years.
Pensions have two-thirds of their money invested in risky assets like
stocks, real estate and hedge fund positions. If the next 20 years could
be counted on to resemble the 1980s and 1990s, when stocks returned
double their historic yearly average, then states would be flush today. More…
The most pressing problem on the planet right now is the European
sovereign debt crisis. It is a gigantic highly leveraged mess caused by
greedy reckless bankers. It was nurtured with the help of regulators
who turned a blind eye and allowed the problem to mushroom into an
uncontrollable financial cancer. The European Union is struggling to
come up with a plan or bailout fund big enough to truly end the crisis,
but there is none in sight. Every time there is a plan, it is shot down
or falls apart. There was talk of Germany backing the EU bailout fund
with its gold reserves, but that was rejected by the Germans. (Germany
is the world’s number two holder of gold with 3,412 tonnes.) Can you
blame them? It is ironic this so-called bailout fund is looking for
tangible backing and that world leaders would turn to the yellow metal.
Didn’t they all have a pact to sell gold not so many years back? This
tells me any country with toxic sovereign debt that wants a bailout
better be considering putting up its gold reserves.
The first troubled country that comes to mind is Italy. It has the
fourth largest gold reserve in the world with 2,451 tonnes. Spain is in
just as much debt and trouble as Italy, but only has 281 tonnes of
gold. It ranks around 17th on the list. These two countries have ten
times the sour debt of Greece. I predict Germany will not be the last
country to be asked to put up its gold. I suspect there is not a
country on earth that will elect to give up control of its yellow
reserves. What else is there? I don’t think Italy would put up the
island of Sicily for collateral, no more than the U.S. would post the
Hawaiian Islands as security for a loan.
They call this a sovereign debt crisis, but it is the banks that are
really at the heart of the problem. This leaves the EU with very
limited options. They can allow the banks holding this sovereign debt
to default, or print money to bail them out. Laws have been passed in
Europe that allow the banks to count toxic sovereign debt as an asset.
It is a novel idea–overwhelming debt that doesn’t have a prayer of being
fully repaid counted as a store of value. (Oh wait, what was I
thinking, this is the same thing the American government allows U.S.
banks to do!) That means you can also say the sovereign debt crisis is
bank solvency crisis. If you mark all sour debt for what banks can get
for it today, many European financial institutions would be insolvent.
End of story. More…
Want
to be a consummate stock picker and investor? Forget all you have
learned in business school, from fundamental or technical analysis, or
from years of trading: the only thing that matters is the position of
the sun: if it is rising, sell. If it is setting, buy. Rinse. Repeat.
Bank of America explains it just slightly more scientifically.
The
last month has been a violent one for stock and bond investors but a
look at the forward curve for Crude Oil also tells a story of hugely
volatile moves. Oil has shifted from contango to backwardation in the
last month but it is today's dramatically disconnected move that has
many scratching their heads. As we approached the European close today,
oil started to rally and rally fast. Initial rumors of ECB printing
were quickly dismissed as gold and silver slid back but crude kept
going - all on its own. After being perfectly in sync with BTPs for the
last few days, we wonder if traders were short oil as their
hedge against European long risk exposures and the LCH margin call
forced liquidations and unwinds - idiosyncratically cracking the oil market back over $97.50.
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