Just the headlines. They speak volumes:
OBAMA SAYS U.S. `READY TO DO OUR PART' TO RESOLVE EURO CRISIS.
OBAMA SAYS SOLVING EURO CRISIS OF `HUGE IMPORTANCE' TO U.S.
Today's
curious news report posted by Iran's semi-official news agency Fars,
which was promptly muted, only to be republished by
Israel's Haaretz,
of a major explosion near the Iranian city of Isfahan, has left many
scratching their heads. As Haaretz reports: "Speaking with Fars news
agency, Isfahan’s deputy mayor confirmed the reports and said the
authorities are investigating the matter. However, after the incident
was reported in Israel, the report was taken off the Fars website."
Which led many to wonder: is this a real event or merely a provocation
designed to make Iranians believe they were attacked? Further
complicating matters is the just released news from
Washington Post which
shows satellite images of the aftermath of another explosion in Iran,
this time from two weeks ago at an Iranian missile base. "The image of
the compound, near the city of Malard, doesn’t provide any clues as to
what caused the
Nov. 12 explosion,
which Iranian authorities described as an “accident” involving the
transport of ammunition. But it does make clear that the facility has
been effectively destroyed. Paul Brannan, a senior analyst for the
Institute for Science and International Security,
which specializes in the study of nuclear weapons programs, said it’s
impossible to tell from the image whether the blast was caused by
sabotage,
as has has been speculated in this explosion and others
at transport facilities, oil refineries and military bases in Iran.
Brannan said ISIS had recently learned from “knowledgable officials”
that the blast had occurred just as Iran had achieved a milestone in the
development of a new missile and may have been performing a “volatile
procedure involving a missile engine at the site.” So the question
stands: is Iran being systematically attacked with the news being
covered up for fear that it can not retaliate and thus seem week; is it
being sabbotaged on a weekly basis, or is everything just one big media
disinformation campaign designed to provoke Iran to lash out? We will
probably know very soon, today's "oversold" and now completely
disconnected from reality rally notwithstanding.
The judge in the MF Global disaster just got real. The assignment of
Louis Joseph Freeh,
former Director of the the FBI no less, somewhat assures that Corzine
and crew will get their day in court - or at least be vilified enough
that someone pays the real price for the wrongdoings. He is the perfect
man for the job having investigated, among others, mob connections to
Italian pizza joints.
A reader sent this hilarious YouTube clip called So You Want to Live in
Montana?
Did you know there are no paved roads in Montana? Or electricity?
Ever the contrarian, we were somewhat taken aback by the
overwhelming majority of respondents to JPMorgan's fixed income manager survey who expect LSAPs in 2012. With 80% expecting QE3, a majority expecting to add to Agency MBS (and high yield and investment grade credit), it seems the
Fed's bang for buck from actually enacting the balance sheet expansion will be significantly lower than it hopes.
Maybe third time is the charm but it seems evident from discussions
that traders have become numb to this manipulation - even if it does
have short-term portfolio rotation impacts - but the difference between
managers who expect to reduce EUR assets and those that expect to
increase USD assets suggests everyone and their cat is waiting to jump
in. The diversification/currency trade seems popular as local
denominated EM assets are among the classes managers expect to add the
most to but duration risk seems very evenly split as the great majority
expect 10Y to hold the 1.5% to 2.5% range. Given the survey results, it
seems the
lack of belief in any significant fiscal stimulus is
being discounted by the strong belief that the Fed will ride to the
rescue once again.
Almost
without exception, the situation gets worse every year. People get
bruised and bloodied as crowds battle each other for deep discounts.
Last year
several people died… and in response, most
of the major retailers adjusted their specials and staggered their
stores’ opening times to reduce the crowd levels. It didn’t help much,
as this year’s barrage of Black Friday incidents underscores yet again
how hopeless the mindless culture of consumerism has become. People
still trample each other, fight each other, etc. Now they are
pepper-spraying each other… or even waiting in the parking lots to mug
each other as shoppers exit the stores. (A friend even told me one
unconfirmed story of a group of Wal Mart parking lot muggers who
themselves got mugged by a rival group of Wal Mart parking lot
muggers.) Then there’s this video showing the utter chaos and calamity
that ensued when shoppers were fighting over towels put on sale at
$1.28 each.
Towels.
Earlier today, we presented a clip that showed how civilized
Americans at a Wal Mart approach the opportunity to save a buck on a
towel. Some may have been surprised by the raw and concentrated
ambition and fury exhibited by these specimen who would put any rioter
in Athens' Syntagma square to shame. Luckily, we have Douglas Adams of
the Hitchhiker's Guide fame to explain the implicit fascination with
"the towel." After all, when given the opportunity to face the Ravenous
Bugblatter Beast of Traal with a cheaper than market price
self-defense mechanism, who can possibly say no?
Without doubt the primary topic of "serious" watercooler discussion
in the last several weeks, and likely to last for many months, is
whether or not the ECB will print, and if not why not. We have
discussed this issue extensively in the past and are confident that the
ECB will not be involved before there are at least 2 or 3 major bank
casualties, which allows Goldman to step in and claim the wreckage at
pennies on the dollar. Naturally, once the dominoes start falling, most
likely early next year, the ECB will have no choice as Germany itself
will be threatened once every neighboring country is collapsing left
and right. But what happens in the meantime: what are the ECB's options
short of outright monetization? Below we present the full list of ECB
"support measures" that can be implemented that won't infuriate Angela
Merkel, as
compiled by Reuters.
The question of course is not whether any of these can be implemented,
but what and how long their impact will be before the dreaded
"half-life" phenomenon exerts itself. The other question, of how one can
claim the ECB is not monetizing when it is in fact doing not only
that, but doing it 30% more on a monthly basis than the Fed
as shown earlier, is a completely separate one.
My last article on debt forgiveness, Endgame: When Debt is Fraud,
Debt Forgiveness is the Last and Only Remedy must have struck quite a
chord in discussions of the future of the economy. It was re-posted on
scores of websites and received over 20,000 reads on Zero Hedge. It also
resulted in a reference on the Max Keiser Report and a subsequent
interview with Max Keiser. This led in turn to a popularization of a
term I used, “fake assets,” to denote the true nature of “toxic assets”.
The good news is that people are talking, attempting to assess the
situation in real terms, and looking for an alternative to the broken
system. The bad news is that this discussion has not been turned very
much toward practical directions. The main contention in my original
article on debt forgiveness and subsequent interview was simply that
ignoring the mathematics of debt (where debt grows exponentially and
real growth is limited), especially when magnified by tens, if not
hundreds, of trillions of dollars of additional fraudulent debt, is a
dangerous fantasy that worsens insolvency and accelerates collapse.
“Extend and pretend” cannot provide an answer but can only amplify
current destructive trends and delay serious preparation of an
alternative.
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