Pictures From A Latvian Bank Run As MF Global Commingling Comes To Town

If anyone is wondering why the collapse of MF Global after the discovery of its commingling and theft of client funds was the single worst thing that could happen to market confidence, then look no further than the small Baltic country of Latvia where precisely what Jon Corzine's firm did to its clients, has happened at the bank level. Businessweek reports: "Lithuanian prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Antonov and Raimondas Baranauskas who are former shareholders of Bankas Snoras AB. Both men are suspected of embezzlement and document forgery, the Prosecutor General said in a statement on its website today. Baranauskas is also suspected of accounting fraud and abuse of authority, it said." Kinda like Jon Corzine, if not by the actual authorities, then by everybody else. And just like in the US where the lack of confidence in the system following the MF filing, so in Latvia the people have decided to hit the ATMs first and ask questions later. "“This money was the bank’s clients’ money,” said Irena Krumane, head of Latvia’s bank regulator, on Latvian Television last night. Krajbanka will most likely be liquidated because the bank doesn’t have the resources to meet depositor and creditor demands unless the Lithuanian government decides to recapitalize the lender, said Janis Brazovskis, the lender’s administrator, in an interview with Latvian Independent Television program 900 Seconds today...Depositors can withdraw 50 lati a day beginning today for the rest of the week, said Krumane at a press conference." At today's rate this is about $95. Which is why what happened next, as shown in the pictures below, was to be completely expected, and is a perfect indicator of the collapse in liquidity and credibility of our own system where commingling, unlike in Latvia, goes unpunished.

EURUSD And European Sovereign Risk In Perfect Harmony

We have extensively discussed the extremes to which European Sovereign spread risk has moved over the past few months. Furthermore, if we normalize by looking at a GDP-weighted credit spread across all of the members of the euro-zone, we are at all-time record wides on this measure. One question that has come up again and again is 'given the market's credit perceptions, why isn't the EUR lower?'. It appears that this is mainly due to regime shifts in the relationship as the correlation between EURUSD and European sovereign risk is extremely high when government intervention (specifically QE uncertainties and fed swap lines) is not rife. The point is that for the last four months, EURUSD and European sovereign risk have been almost perfectly correlated suggesting that as long as there is no ring-fence on risk, the EUR will continue to weaken significantly and at a minimum the EURUSD is an effective hedge against sovereign credit deterioration. Watching this relationship may provide insight into repatriation effects or government intervention as well as offer insight into how EURUSD will move given specific bond moves - a 100bps rise in Italian bond spreads alone infers a 140pip drop in EURUSD for example.

What To Hold In A Money Printing Environment

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 20 minutes ago

Throughout history, when things have gone wrong, they print money...when they print money, you should own silver, you should own rice, you should own real assets. - in CNBC *Related, IShares Silver ETF (SLV), ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Index - Agriculture Total Return ETN (RJA)* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* 

 

 

 

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Warren Pollock: Open Letter to the CME

 

 

EURUSD Tumbles, Italian Yields Pop After Merkel Says "Firmly Against Eurobonds"

The entire hopium driven rally from yesterday afternoon on a Reuters report that Germany may be warming up to the idea of Eurobonds destroyed by one word out of place, in this case Merkel's who just said that "she stands firmly against joint Euro-bonds." Translation: market will have to punish EURUSD far more for her to change her mind.

Risk Tumbles In Retaliation For Merkel Stubbornness

UPDATE1: ES -4pts from close yesterday now (-17pts from overnight highs)
UPDATE2: EURUSD below yesterday's lows
From the moment the words left Merkel's lips this morning that 'conditions weren't right' for euro-bonds and would send 'completely wrong signal', risk assets started to crack lower. Both ES and European markets are now well below yesterday's lows as EURUSD also turns red and sovereign spreads start to break wider (and bear flatten) again.

Belgium Hits Record High Yields As Business Confidence Slumps

Belgium just can't get a break. While its simultaneously arguing with France and Luxembourg over Dexia's bailout burden and suffering under a total lack of government, Merkel's unequivocal comments on Euro-bonds did nothing to save the ailing nation. Then business confidence prints worse than expected continuing its worse slide since 1993. Not only are Belgian government yields at record highs but so is the spread to German Bunds (at 350bps) and French OATs as Dexia's credit also cracks to record wides.

Happy Thanksgiving to my American readers

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 9 hours ago

We do indeed have much to still be thankful for in this wondrous land of ours. The Wall Street Journal has a fine tradition of reprinting some wonderful reading each and every year in honor of our Thanksgiving holiday. May I suggest taking a bit of time to read these two fine articles and reflect on the sacrifices made by those who came to these shores more than 400 years ago and by those who looked upon what they had created years later and recorded their thoughts. The Desolate Wilderness A chronicle of the Pilgrims' arrival at Plymouth, as recorded by Nathaniel Morton. http://on... more » 

 

Gold weak but holding support - for now

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 9 hours ago

Gold has now gone down and visited the critical support level near $1680 three times in the last three trading days, each time managing to recover as it attracted quality buying and rebounded. Considering the weak action in both the HUI and in silver, and of course strength in the Dollar, this is encouraging but overall the market is acting rather poorly. Until this market can manage to regain its footing above $1725, it is in a precarious position. I got the distinct impression that many traders did not want to go home short over a long holiday weekend period (many are taking off u... more » 

Gold GBP 1,092/oz, JPY 130,890/oz – IMF: Japan Debt Could "Quickly Become Unsustainable"

Geopolitical risk remains elevated and Middle East tensions are escalating globally with Russia appearing to be prepared to risk conflict over Syria with NATO and the US. Yesterday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened to target and, if necessary, destroy the U.S. missile defence shield in Europe once it is built. A marked deterioration in US–Russian relations and concerns of a new ‘Cold War’ may support gold prices.  While all the focus has been on Europe, and to a lesser degree the US in recent months, two of the other largest debtor nations in the world, Japan and the UK (including corporate and bank debt), have been under the market's radar.  This will change soon and will likely lead to the next phase of the global financial crisis. The fact that we have a global debt crisis which will almost inevitably lead to an international monetary crisis is as of yet not acknowledged or realized by the markets and the media. Today, the IMF warned in a new report that market concerns over fiscal sustainability could trigger a "sudden spike" in Japanese government bond yields that could "quickly" render the nation's debt unsustainable as well as shake the global economy.

Watch Live First Merkel, Sarkozy, Monti Press Conference

It is in French but it is really a body language kinda gig. They promise to do everything they have to save the euro. In other words they are as clueless as always. The important thing is that Sarkozy just said they have agreed to abstain from making demand on the ECB. So...no more pressure to monetize?

Fitch Downgrades Portugal To Junk On General Strike Day

Just a step behind the Chinese as usual, and just in time to kill a modest EURUSD rally. Also on the same day as the first mass strike in Portugal which reminds us that everyone will want a piece of the debt reduction pie.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 24/11/11

Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 11/24/2011 - 05:24 ETC Morning Briefing RANSquawk

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