CME Goes To Margin DefCon 1: Makes Maintenance Margin Equal To Initial For... Everything!?
The most important news announcement of the day was not anything to came out of Cannes (as nothing did), nor from Greece (the merry go round farce there continues unabated). No, it was a brief paragraph distributed by the CME long after everyone had gone home, and was already on their 3rd drink. It is critical, because not only is this announcement a direct consequence of what happened with MF Global several days ago, but because also it confirms one of our biggest concerns: systemic liquidity is non-existanet. We confirmed interbank liquidity in Europe was at an all time low earlier today, and can only assume the same is true for US banks. But what is very disturbing is that this is just as true at the exchange level, where it appears the aftermath of the MF collapse is just now being felt. What exactly was the announcement. Unless we are completely reading it incorrectly, it is nothing short of a margin call for tens if not hundreds of billions worth of product. Because as of close of business on November 4, today, the CME just made the maintenance margin, traditionally about 26% lower than the initial margin for specs, equal. For everything. Which means that by close of business Monday, millions of options and futures holders will be forced to deposit billions in additional capital to the CME just so they are not found to be margin deficient, and thus receive a margin call. Naturally, since it is very unlikely that this incremental amount of liquidity can be easily procured in one business day, we anticipate the issuance of hundreds of thousands of margin calls Monday, followed by forced liquidations of margin accounts across America... and the world. Just like when Lehman blew up, it took 5 days for Money Markets to break. Is this unprecedented elimination in the distinction between initial and maintenance margin the post-MF equivalent of the first domino to fall this time around?CME Group hiking margins across the Board
If I am reading the communique from the exchange correctly, the margin
requirements for ALL CME products is being raised by hiking the MAINTENANCE
MARGIN requirements to the SAME LEVEL as INITIAL MARGIN requirements,
effective as of the opening of trading Sunday evening/Monday morning,
November7. The changes were implemented as of the close of trading Friday,
November 4th.
If this is correct, and I think I am reading it correctly, this is the first
time that I can recall seeing something like this occuring. It will also
precipitate some very volatile trading conditions.
I suspect t... more »
HUI pushing into Chart Resistance
The HUI had a strong showing this week as the return of the risk trades drew
money into the sector. Along with that, many investors have come to view the
sector as generally undervalued based on the good numbers being reported by
several miners and the fact some were raising dividends.
The result was a move back into the large gap region formed in September
when gold and silver were both taken down quite hard. Last week the index
mounted its first push into the gap and managed to hold the level going into
the weekend. This week after some initial weakness, it found willing buyers
wh... more »
Silver Chart improving but still bearish
Let's start by examining the weekly chart for a bit longer perspective. For
starters, silver remains held under the 50 week moving average so strictly
speaking it is still bearish. Once it climbs above this level, funds
generally become more involved in the market so that will be the first
achievement which the bulls will have to pull off to get the speculators
more interested in the market. Note that the over the last two weeks, this
level has effectively capped any upward progress although the bulls are
working on securing a breach of this important technical level.
You might al... more »
11/04/2011 - 15:48
11/04/2011 - 20:31
11/04/2011 - 20:18
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