The Coming Economic Collapse, Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation/Hyperinflation, Weimar Germany, Euro Collapse,
Zimbabwe Hyperinflation, Survival in Economic Collapse, World Economic Collapse, Dollar Collapse,
What Would Happen If the Economy Collapsed,The Coming Economic Depression.
Gold and Silver Will Protect Your Wealth.
Even as Joe Sixpack was maxing out that last credit card on useless gadgets (but not flat screen TVs as Corning was so nice to warn),
he was making sure to have enough in store for that one final Plan Z
purchase. Guns. As KNDU reports, "Gun dealers flooded the FBI with
background check requests from shoppers, smashing the single day record
with a 32% increase from last year." USA Today has
more: "Deputy Assistant FBI Director Jerry Pender said the checks,
required by federal law, surged to 129,166 during the day, far
surpassing the previous high of 97,848 on Black Friday of 2008." And in
reality, the number is likely far greater: "The actual number of
firearms sold last Friday is likely higher because multiple firearms
can be included in a transaction by a single buyer. And the FBI does
not track actual gun sales." And while Saudi Arabia is warning that
women driving leads to the end of the world, in America women are now
the marginal guy buyer: "Some gun industry analysts attributed the
unusual surge to a convergence of factors, including an increasing
number of first-time buyers seeking firearms for protection and women
who are being drawn to sport shooting and hunting. Larry Keane, a
spokesman for the National Shooting Sports Foundation, said 25% of the
purchases typically involve first-time buyers, many of them women. "I
think there also is a burgeoning awakening of the American public that
they do have a constitutional right to own guns," Keane said. Yet Keane
said last Friday's number appeared to defy complete explanation.
"It's really pretty amazing," he said." Indeed it is, and unlike
Europe, where with the exception of Switzerland the best the local
rioters can do is some imported (from the US) tear gas, when the Arab
Spring finally makes landfall, it will be time to use up those one way
international frequent flier miles (assuming of course that American
and soon others don't cancel them).
In the following video Chris Martenson - economic analyst at chrismartenson.com and regular guest contributor to Zero Hedge, and James Turk, Director of the GoldMoney Foundation
talk about the problems facing the eurozone as well as the global
economy. Chris Martenson points out that the whole world simply has too
much debt. This is why he believes that there won’t be a real solution
to the euro crisis. The big question will rather be who will take losses
on the debt, which can’t possibly be repaid. The lack of political
leadership and unwillingness to accept reality is contributing to this
crisis. Additionally, the monetary tools central banks have
traditionally used to revive economies are starting to show less and
less effect. In Martenson’s view, the financial sector has become way
too large and interlinked across borders, so that a default by one
country could bring down the whole financial systems, because credit
default swaps would get triggered and could bring down the writers of
those derivatives.
In the latest note from the masters of the arcane at ConvergEx, Nick
Colas' team looks at the historically very strong correlation between
home prices (which recently hit an 8 year low: here and here)
and unemployment, a foundation stone in every single QE episode as to
the Chairman the only controlled variable to set the unemployment rate
are average home prices, and flips it. In other words, in their Friday
analysis ConvergEx try to extrapolate just by how much home prices need
to rise to hit the Fed's projected unemployment rates of 8.7% in 2012 (absent the now generic labor participation rate fudge
of course), 8.2% in 2013 and 7.7% in 2014. The answer is disturbing:
"In order for unemployment to reach 8.7% in the Composite-10 next year
(2012), home prices will have to rise by an average of 3.5%. To reach
8.2% in 2013, they will have to climb 9.4% from their current prices. For a 7.7% unemployment rate in 2014, the necessary rate of increase is 15.4%."
It is disturbing because while Case Shiller predicts a 2.7% rise in
2012, we have now seen the 5th consecutive drop in home prices, and the
largest sequential decline since March 2011. In other words, not only
are home prices not rising, or even stabilizing, they are suddenly
deteriorating at an alarming pace yet again. ConvergEx continues: "we have no doubt that the Fed knows these numbers...If
it costs a QE III to get the 3.5% bump in real estate prices, or even a
QE IV, then markets should not doubt that the current Federal Reserve
will seriously consider it." At the end of the day, the only
thing the Fed thinks it can control are asset prices for that most
critical of assets: housing. And if rising home prices means diluting a
few hundred billion more dollars, so be it. After all, we are now less
than 12 months from the presidential election, and all bets are off.
As SocGen predicted, expect to see massive monetary easing resume as soon as January when Obama realizes he needs something to
go right or else he can kiss that second term good bye. Ironically,
the lower the president's interim rating, the higher the price of gold
will ultimately rise when all is said and done. Who would have thought that the worst president since Carter would be a gold bug's biggest friend.
During his recent lengthy discussion
on the broad topic of global central bankers, optical backstops, and
our coordinated cognitive dissonance, Kyle Bass, of Hayman Advisors,
suggested everyone read "The Black Swan Of Cairo" penned by no less a tail-risk philosopher than Nassim Taleb (and Mark Blyth). The Foreign Affairs article from June 2011 brings into clear prose the fascinating dichotomy
between the centrally planned smoothing efforts of world bankers and
politicians and the inevitable (and much larger) instabilities that
spring from this suppression.
It is both misguided and dangerous to push unobserved risks further
into the statistical tails of the probability distribution of outcomes
and allow these high-impact, low-probability “tail risks” to disappear
from policymakers’ fields of observation.
With freedom comes some unpredictable fluctuation. This is one of life's packages: there is no freedom without noise - and no stability without volatility.
After
hours last night, when all but the most dedicated of market savants
(or late stumblers home from a night out checking the Bloomberg one
more time) are sleeping, China released its Non-manufacturing PMI data
and it was a howler. The series is very cyclical but we note that the
November print fell dramatically to its lowest level since the middle
of 2008's global economic meltdown. Dropping below the 50
(deteriorating) line for the first time since Feb2011 and combined with
the dismal manufacturing PMI print from earlier in the week, we are
reminded of David Rosenberg's critical insight 'Don't confuse resilience
with lags' when we hear further chatter about the US apparent miracle
decoupling. It seems that this 'lag' is already impacting US firms,
as we noted earlier, and with EM nations increasingly starved of
credit via European bank deleveraging, it seems a game-of-chicken
between the Fed and the PBOC may begin on who prints/QEs first to save
the world from reality once again.
Creeping up on the outer edges of Wall Street and The
City soothsayers’ economic crystal ball, until now dominated by American
and Euro crises, is growing concern about China.
Below is a list of frequently asked questions relating to direct
registration. It is edited to focus on the items of your interest. Click here to read the full article here…
What is the Direct Registration System?
DRS provides for electronic direct registration of securities in an
investor’s name on the books of the transfer agent or issuer, and allows
shares to be transferred between a transfer agent and broker
electronically.
After I make my decision on how I want to hold my security, what do I do?
Direct registration is a relatively new method to hold corporate
equity, and not all issuers currently offer this option. You should
check with the issuer or your broker to find out if the issuer offers
direct registration. If you are purchasing a security, tell your broker
you want to hold your securities in direct registration. If you
currently hold a certificate, you can mail or take your certificate
either to the issuer or to your broker with instructions to change to
direct registration. If you currently hold your security in street name
registration, you can instruct your broker or the issuer to move your
security position to the issuer for direct registration. In any
situation, you will receive a statement of ownership from the issuer
acknowledging your DRS book-entry position once the change has been made
. If you want a certificate or if you want to use street name
registration, tell your broker your choice at the time of purchase. If
you elect a certificate, one will be sent to you. If you chose street
name registration, your broker will send you a confirmation and periodic
account statements acknowledging your ownership. If you currently hold a
certificate, you can deliver the certificate to your broker with
instructions to change your registration to street name registration. If
you currently hold in street name registration, you can tell your
broker to obtain a certificate for you.
How do I sell my security held in Direct Registration?
You can instruct the issuer to sell your security (many issuers can
accommodate sale requests); or you can instruct your broker or the
issuer to electronically move your security to your broker for your
broker to sell; or you can request a physical certificate and deliver
it to your broker to sell.
How do I sell my security held in my possession?
You can deliver the certificate to your broker with your instructions
to sell or you can deliver the certificate to the issuer with
instructions to change how you hold your security from certificate to
direct registration and to sell (many issuers can accommodate sale
requests). When selling a security through the issuer, the issuer will
sell your security under the terms and conditions in place for that
issue. For example, some sell orders will be executed on the day the
issuer receives them, and some orders are aggregated for frequent, but
not daily, execution. (Note: you should ask the issuer if it offers a
selling service and what the terms and conditions are.) Proceeds from
the sale will be mailed to you three business days after the date of
sale. When selling through your broker, your instructions will be acted
on immediately and in accordance with the guidelines it provides to you.
Proceeds from the sale will be made available to you or credited to
your account three business days after the date of sale.
What about my relationship with my broker if I use direct registration?
You can maintain your relationship with your broker regardless of
your choice of registration. When you purchase a security to hold in
direct registration, you can tell either your broker or the issuer to
include pertinent broker information in the issuers records. If you do
not have your broker information included in the issuers records at the
time of purchase and later want to or if you want to change the broker
information in the issuers records, you may do so. You should contact
either your broker or the issuer to obtain information on the procedures
and the documents required for such actions. You should note that to
change or add a broker at the time you choose to sell your shares
through your broker could create a delay in getting the securities to
your broker in time for settlement.
Will I get a certificate for additional stock distributions if I physically hold my shares?
If the issue is eligible for direct registration, you will probably
receive a statement of ownership instead of an additional certificate.
You always have the right to request and receive a certificate or to
electronically move your securities to your broker.
What are the fees associated with direct registration?
There are no fees charged by an issuer for direct registration.
However, because brokers offer differing services and plans, you should
contact your broker to learn what, if any, fees it charges.
If I opt for direct registration, what happens if I lose my statement of ownership?
If you ever need a duplicate statement of ownership, you should
contact the issuer which will mail you a new statement of ownership.
What happens if my certificate is lost or stolen?
You should immediately notify the issuer of the loss or theft and
request a replacement certificate. If you have an account with a broker,
you can ask your broker to notify the issuer on your behalf. Other
financial institutions where you have accounts, such as banks, may also
notify the issuer for you at your request. The issuer may ask you to
complete an affidavit explaining the circumstances of the loss or theft.
You will have to pay the cost of an indemnity bond to protect the
issuer against future claims on the certificate. (Indemnity bonds
usually cost approximately 2% of the value of the securities.) If you
find your original certificate after you have received a replacement
certificate, you should immediately return it to the issuer or your
broker.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
What Uncle gives, Uncle can take away.
Portugal raids pension funds to meet deficit targets Portugal has raided €5.6bn (£4.8bn) of pension fund assets in a controversial scramble to meet its deficit targets. By Louise Armitstead 9:51PM GMT 02 Dec 2011 The cabinet agreed to transfer the assets from four of Portugal’s biggest banks to the state balance sheet. The assets will be used to bridge a gap needed to meet the fiscal
deficit target of 5.9pc of GDP set by the terms of the country’s €78bn
bail-out from around 10pc in 2010. "This measure is more than sufficient to meet the budget deficit
goal in 2011," said Helder Rosalino, secretary of state for central
administration, on Friday. Portugal said it had informed the EU and IMF and assured them it
would be a “one-off”. However the 2010 budget was met by shifting three
pension plans from Portugal Telecom on to the public social security
system. The liabilities don’t count, yet. There have been no complaints from Eurostat but Raoul Ruperal from
Open Europe said: “This can’t be seen as a future revenue stream in any
way.” More…
Securities and commodities affected by MF Global. By Christopher Doering WASHINGTON | Fri Dec 2, 2011 8:42pm EST (Reuters) – Regulators investigating the collapse of MF Global
have determined that the firm combined money between securities and
futures accounts owned by customers, and transferred funds outside the
country to at least one entity, a source said on Friday. "The further we get into (the investigation) the more complex it
is … but we’re making progress," the source said, adding that the
commingling and transferring of money is making it harder for regulators
to determine what money belongs where. MF Global took futures segregated money and put it into the
account for customer securities, essentially mixing futures and
securities that were both owned by customers, said an official familiar
with the matter. Until now, it was believed that only customer futures accounts were affected. More…
Jim,
In regards to taking delivery based on the risks of clearing houses,
am I correct to assume if I take delivery of shares personally
registered in my name and all hell breaks lose (I hope this never does)
once things are back to order (whatever that looks like) those shares
will be able to be re-deposited into a brokerage account and will be
honored and hold true share value?
I am just trying to figure out how one eventually could sell these
shares if this scenario has played out. My understanding is that by
taking delivery I am taking them out of harm’s way so my shares are not
"lost" in the fallout? Excuse my ignorance but I am trying to ask these
questions within my industry and company would come from people who
likely don’t know the answer (or like you say will be surprised to find
their shares gone) or unlikely to acknowledge the truth. The account
holdings are "segregated" but we are seeing what that means!
I have been with you for the ride since 2004, have physical gold in
my possession, and this is the last step for me to take. Doing this will
require me to pull some from taxable accounts but that is a small price
to pay now to dodge regret in the future. I have no question in your
knowledge of how things operate and so I take your warnings with serious
interest so that I have protected myself and my family’s savings.
Your guidance and input is always appreciated.
Thank you,
CIGA A Dear CIGA A,
Yes, you are correct to assume the shares can be re-deposited into a
brokerage account. You can liquidate them in paper or direct
registration form any time you wish. Paper certificates take about 36
hours for the selling entity to confirm there are no lost/stop orders on
them. Direct registration usually can be sold the same day to a known
client.
Segregated seems now to be based on the trust that at the entity that
is supposed to segregate actually did, or cares when it hits the fan.
You need not create a tax event if you go the direct registration
route. Direct registration is registration at the transfer agent.
Nothing changes other than it is not in possession on the books of the
direct clearing broker or clearing house on behalf of the broker.
Jim
Dear Jim,
Hope all is well. Please bring the interviews of Ann Barnhardt and
Peter Schweizer, from our friend Jim Puplava, to the Community’s
attention. Peter Schweizer just authored a book about insider trading
within our government and Ann Barnhardt expounds on the MF Global
collapse and what it means for us as a nation.
She scared the hell out of me to say the least. If she doesn’t
convince us to take possession of our assets nobody can. All I can say
is God help us!
Wishing you continued good health and prosperity,
CIGA Tom Click here to read the articles…
Please consider making a small donation, to help cover some of the labor and cost for this blog.
Even as Joe Sixpack was maxing out that last credit card on useless gadgets (but not flat screen TVs as Corning was so nice to warn),
he was making sure to have enough in store for that one final Plan Z
purchase. Guns. As KNDU reports, "Gun dealers flooded the FBI with
background check requests from shoppers, smashing the single day record
with a 32% increase from last year." USA Today has
more: "Deputy Assistant FBI Director Jerry Pender said the checks,
required by federal law, surged to 129,166 during the day, far
surpassing the previous high of 97,848 on Black Friday of 2008." And in
reality, the number is likely far greater: "The actual number of
firearms sold last Friday is likely higher because multiple firearms
can be included in a transaction by a single buyer. And the FBI does
not track actual gun sales." And while Saudi Arabia is warning that
women driving leads to the end of the world, in America women are now
the marginal guy buyer: "Some gun industry analysts attributed the
unusual surge to a convergence of factors, including an increasing
number of first-time buyers seeking firearms for protection and women
who are being drawn to sport shooting and hunting. Larry Keane, a
spokesman for the National Shooting Sports Foundation, said 25% of the
purchases typically involve first-time buyers, many of them women. "I
think there also is a burgeoning awakening of the American public that
they do have a constitutional right to own guns," Keane said. Yet Keane
said last Friday's number appeared to defy complete explanation.
"It's really pretty amazing," he said." Indeed it is, and unlike
Europe, where with the exception of Switzerland the best the local
rioters can do is some imported (from the US) tear gas, when the Arab
Spring finally makes landfall, it will be time to use up those one way
international frequent flier miles (assuming of course that American
and soon others don't cancel them).
eo Chris Martenson - economic analyst at chrismartenson.com and regular guest contributor to Zero Hedge, and James Turk, Director of the GoldMoney Foundation
talk about the problems facing the eurozone as well as the global
economy. Chris Martenson points out that the whole world simply has too
much debt. This is why he believes that there won’t be a real solution
to the euro crisis. The big question will rather be who will take losses
on the debt, which can’t possibly be repaid. The lack of political
leadership and unwillingness to accept reality is contributing to this
crisis. Additionally, the monetary tools central banks have
traditionally used to revive economies are starting to show less and
less effect. In Martenson’s view, the financial sector has become way
too large and interlinked across borders, so that a default by one
country could bring down the whole financial systems, because credit
default swaps would get triggered and could bring down the writers of
those derivatives.
After
hours last night, when all but the most dedicated of market savants
(or late stumblers home from a night out checking the Bloomberg one
more time) are sleeping, China released its Non-manufacturing PMI data
and it was a howler. The series is very cyclical but we note that the
November print fell dramatically to its lowest level since the middle
of 2008's global economic meltdown. Dropping below the 50
(deteriorating) line for the first time since Feb2011 and combined with
the dismal manufacturing PMI print from earlier in the week, we are
reminded of David Rosenberg's critical insight 'Don't confuse resilience
with lags' when we hear further chatter about the US apparent miracle
decoupling. It seems that this 'lag' is already impacting US firms,
as we noted earlier, and with EM nations increasingly starved of
credit via European bank deleveraging, it seems a game-of-chicken
between the Fed and the PBOC may begin on who prints/QEs first to save
the world from reality once again.
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