Goldman Releases "Strategies For Stagnation"

The title says it all: US Portfolio Strategy 2012 Outlook Strategies for Stagnation

 

 

 

Huge Gold deliveries/Low Silver OI/Job report/More Fallout MFGlobal

Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 3 hours ago

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen: Before beginning, I would like to inform you that no USA bank entered the morgue last night. The FDIC decided to give the boys two extra weeks off due to their hard work for the past several months. The bankers were surely ready with their fat fingers on the sell buttons in gold and silver as soon as the non farm payrolls were announced and they were weaker

It won't be long... and this will happen to your pension...  more »

Portugal Is Latest Country To Go "MF Global", Raid Pensions Funds To Delay Fiscal Death

About a year ago, we discussed the very troubling moves by insolvent countries such as Ireland and Hungary to "raid" their pensions funds for various fungible purposes, a move which in virtually every way a was a progenitor to the MF Global capital commingling, if not outright bankruptcy, and was explained as reflecting "a willingness by governments to use long-term assets to fill short-term deficits, including Ireland’s announcement last week that it would use the country’s €24bn National Pensions  Reserve Fund “to support the exchequer’s funding programme” and Hungary’s bid to claw $15bn of private pension funds back to the state system." While it was unclear precisely what the use of funds was, back then FN speculated that it pension funds were being tapped to boost sovereign debt bids. Which if true means that Europe's peripheral pensioners have seen about a 20% drop in the NPV of their retirement assets. Today we add Portugal to the list of countries committing an MF Global type crime on a global scale: the Telegraph writes: "Portugal has raided €5.6bn (£4.8bn) of pension fund assets in a controversial scramble to meet its deficit targets." And since the money is once again implicitly and explicitly used to patch broken fiscal models, it is as good as gone. Which in a paradoxical way is almost welcome, as the true Arab Spring will not come to Europe (and America) until the citizens don't read, in clear writing, that their welfare state entitlement benefits are gone.... They are all gone. And at that point there will be truly nothing left to lose.

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Diamonds, Sapphires, Rubies: Bullish Outlook For The Next Several Years

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 4 hours ago

I own diamonds and expect good things over the next several years. I imagine things like rubies, sapphires, emeralds, and jade will do better percentagewise. I own them all. - *in Investor`s Clinic* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* 

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A Chinese Slowdown Impacts Everything

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 4 hours ago

If the Chinese economy grows at 10 percent, or 5 percent or no growth, it has a huge impact on iron ore, copper, nickel, anything. It will have on the global economy a devastating impact via the resource producers of the world, whether it's Brazil or Australia or the Middle East or Africa. - *in CNBC* *Tickers, iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ) * *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*

How The U.S. Will Become a 3rd World Country (Part 2)

The United States increasingly resembles a 3rd world country in terms of unemployment, lack of economic opportunity, falling wages, growing poverty and concentration of wealth, government debt, corporate influence over government and weakening rule of law. Federal Reserve monetary policies and federal government economic, regulatory and tax policies seem to favor the largest banks and corporations over the interests of small businesses or of the general population. The potential elimination of the middle class could reshape the socioeconomic strata of American society in the image of a 3rd world country. It seems only a matter of time before the devolution of the United States becomes more visible. As the U.S. economy continues to decline, public health, nutrition and education, as well as the country’s infrastructure, will visibly deteriorate. There is little evidence of political will or leadership for fundamental reforms. All other things being equal, the U.S. will become a post industrial neo-3rd-world country by 2032.




Trading Physical Gold As Easily As You Trade Stocks: Is Gold Becoming A Tradable Currency After All?

Posted by: Reggie Middleton

Post date: 12/03/2011 - 10:41

Not many know that you can trade physical gold & precious metals OTC through your brokerage account, and take physical delivery on demand. This is the first of several interviews that explores...

Be sure to listen to this! 
 Jim Pulplava interviews Ann Barnhardt about institutional wickedness by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and MF Global: The Entire Futures/Options Market Has Been Destroyed by the MF Global Collapse. Barnhardt predicts systemic collapse and hence the need to shift into tangibles including long guns, ammunition, fuel, and precious metals.

In The News Today

December 2, 2011, at 9:07 pm
by Jim Sinclair 

Dear CIGAs,

Here is the latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com.

The Economy Is Not Suddenly Recovering / November M3 up About 2.7%
NOTICE:  Commentary No. 403 to be published December 3rd.
An hour-plus after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its happy headline numbers showing November 2011 U.3 unemployment at 8.6% and nonfarm payrolls gaining 120,000 jobs (+/- 129,000 jobs, 95% confidence interval), full data still were not posted on the BLS Web site, although much appears to be coming up now, as I write this.  Where I try to get my analysis of the labor numbers out before the close of the business day, the delays here now have pushed that beyond feasibility for today.
Accordingly, Commentary No. 403 on the November labor numbers, current economic conditions, November M3 and the evolving global systemic solvency crisis will be published tomorrow (December 3rd), instead of today.  The SGS-Alternate Unemployment Estimate for November 2011 will be posted on our site, as available, later today, on the Alternate Data tab.
The economy is not suddenly recovering, and the employment circumstance generally is getting worse, not better.  Details will be covered tomorrow.
The comments that would have been in today’s Commentary on M3, follow.  The detail will be updated tomorrow for the hard estimate tomorrow.
Money Supply M3 (November 2011).  Bank lending remains impaired and broad money growth is not picking up as it would with a healthy banking system.  Based on roughly three weeks of data, the preliminary estimate of the SGS Ongoing-M3 Estimate for November 2011 will be published in the Alternate Data section December 3rd.  November M3 is on track to show year-to-year growth of about 2.7%, up slightly from the 2.6% estimated for October and still below the official rate of CPI inflation. As with October, the seasonally-adjusted, month-to-month change estimate for November M3 likely will be unchanged.  The estimated month-to-month M3 changes, however, remain less reliable than the estimates of annual growth.
A flattening or softening in the relative monthly estimates of annual growth, and slowing-to-flat month-to month gains, also likely continued for the narrower M1 and M2 measures (M2 includes M1, M3 includes M2).  M2 for November is on track to show year-to-year growth of about 9.7%, versus 9.9% in October, with month-to-month growth estimated at roughly 0.3% in November, the same as in October.  The early estimate on M1 for November shows year-to-year growth of roughly17.9%, down from 20.8% in October, with month-to-month change showing a 0.4% contraction in Novembers, versus a 0.8% gain in October.  The relatively stronger annual growth rates in M1 and M2 still reflect the recent shifting of funds out of M3 accounts into M1 and M2 accounts.
Best wishes to all – John Williams, December 2, 2011
www.ShadowStats.com




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Remember China’s warning yesterday!

All eyes on Israel after second Iranian blast
by: Sheera Frenkel, Jerusalem
From: The Australian
December 03, 2011 12:00AM
The second blast in as many weeks at an atomic or missile facility has sparked Iranian denials and claims of accidents, but a new phase in efforts to destroy its nuclear ambitions is said to be under way.
“Instead of overt action you have covert action. This is the new battlefront — this is a new kind of war,” an Israeli defence official said.
The Israeli Defence Minister, in a radio interview yesterday, did little to dampen speculation that it had a role in the blast at Isfahan, located in central Iran, and an explosion at a missile base west of Tehran.
Ehud Barak, acknowledging that Israel stood to benefit most from disruption to the nuclear program, said: “We are not happy to see the Iranians move ahead on this (program), so any delay, be it divine intervention or otherwise, is welcome.”
More than 20 members of the Revolutionary Guards died in the explosion at the missile base two weeks ago, including General Hassan Moghaddam, described as the architect of Iran’s missile program.
The facilities in Isfahan are involved in converting uranium yellowcake ore into uranium hexafluoride, part of the process of enriching it to fuel or weapons-grade material. A US official yesterday dismissed Iranian claims that the Isfahan explosion took place at a nearby site and not at the nuclear facility, but said it was unclear how much damage had been done.
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
I recommend that you take a look at this link.
Click here to view the article…

 

 

Clearing Houses Are The Mechanism Of All Markets

December 2, 2011, at 4:13 pm
by Jim Sinclair 

My Dear Extended Family,

We all know bank’s balance sheets are cartoons due to FASB’s capitulation on the fair market value issue, that the euro financial leaders do not deserve the title leader, and that the Fed is the source of liquidity for Euroland in unlimited cheap dollar swaps, but there is more.
That more is the first failure of a major clearing house.
Clearing is the mechanism of all markets.
It is the guts of the system.
It is the engine under the hood of finance.
It is the pulleys that turn inside the watch.
It is basic to finance for without clearing trades cannot close.
Without faith in the clearing house system where is faith that what your account statement says means anything whatsoever?
Unless MF clients are made whole in every way, the system is broken. It is as if the heads blew off the engine of finance. Where can you keep your money and investments if a clearinghouse is allowed for whatever reason to go broke, therein leaving the clients to suffer?
Are you safe even in a custodial account if the clearing mechanism can erase assets across the board as a product of insolvency for any reason?
The system is in a critical seizure.
It may take some time, but even the financial sheeple are going to worry about their own funds. God help you if you hit gold right on a paper exchange with the wrong clearing facility.
You are wholly dependent on the ability of the clearing house to pay into your account the winnings by deducting those funds from the loser. You are wholly dependent on the ability of the clearing house to guarantee the safety and security (are T Bills securities?) beyond SIPC levels. SIPC is underfunded but would be made whole by funny paper.
God help all the exchange traded funds that are nothing more than houses of derivative paper requiring a sound clearing system to have even an excuse for existing.
If the clearing system fails then you have nothing whatsoever. God help you if you are a farmer hedging your crop or livestock if you the farmer have nothing whatsoever due to a broken clearing house. You are insolvent regardless of the fact that your hedge may have been perfect for the needs of your operation.
Unless MF clients are made whole in every way the system is broken.
People did not realize then and some even now that the failure of Lehman broke the technical procedures (mechanism) for the functioning of the OTC derivative and for that reason broke the Western world’s financial system for which we are paying dearly today.
MF is a Lehman Brothers, but worse. OTC derivatives have always been a fraud but could have, before Lehman failed, been globally netted to practically zero.
The lack of faith in the clearing house system breaks the mechanism of the marketplace, even for legitimate transactions. This leaves gold in your possession as the asset of last resort. This is quietly driving the gold price towards Alf’s objective of $4500.
For your sake immediately take delivery of your gold and silver.
For your sake immediately take paper delivery of your gold and silver shares from those very few companies still willing to facilitate that kind of transaction.
For your sake immediately make your general securities positions "direct registration" as a second best method of protection the asset against failure of your clearing facility.
You all have clearing facility dependence even if you do not know it. Unless MF clients are made whole in every way, the system is broken.
This is no time to take any unnecessary risk.
This is no time to be lazy.
If you do not know how to do direct registration, get paper securities or take delivery of paper gold and silver, ask me.
Respectfully,
Jim

 

 

Jim’s Mailbox

December 2, 2011, at 3:55 pm
by Jim Sinclair 

All Is Not Well
CIGA Eric
Don’t let today’s employment report spun as good as a result of upward revisions to previous months (only to be quietly revised downward at a later date as not to bruise our fragile expectations) and a reduction in labor participation (an tired tactic – see chart 1 below) obscure the fact that Europe is heading for recession and Chinese growth is beginning to slow as a result.
According the BLS, the civilian labor force, thus, labor force participation has been contracting steadily since 2009.
Chart 1: Civilian Labor Force (CLF) And Year-Over-Year (YOY) Change
Money is flowing out of the Euro…
Chart 2: Euro ETF
…into the best looking horse in the glue factory. The movement into the dollar is not a flight to quality but rather one of liquidity.
Chart 3: US Dollar Index ETF
The financial system is teetering on collapse while the talking heads continue to tell us all is well, now get out there and spend, spend, spend.
How much longer can we shop ‘til we drop? Personal consumption already dominates GDP.
Chart 4: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) As A %GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures As A %GDP Average from 1947:
The US consumption monsters, however, carries an unexpected price. The collapse in domestic private investment jeopardizes not only today’s but also tomorrow’s standard of living in the United States.
Chart 5: Gross Domestic Private Investment (GDPI) As A %GDP and Gross Domestic Private Investment (GDPI) As A %GDP Average from 1947:
All is not well, but the public could very well be the last to recognize it.
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