Shadow Rehypothecation, Infinte Leverage, And Why Breaking The Tyrrany Of Ignorance Is The Only Solution

In the aftermath of the "rehypothecation" analysis exposing the quantum differences between the US and the UK, where the former at least tries to put some breaks on "fractional reserve" synthetic liquidity creation by Prime Brokers (which these days would be virtually anyone) while the latter believes that virtually boundless risk is a welcome thing, there has been a barrage of inquiries seeking further clarification of the nuances of shadow banking. In order to bring some clarity to the matter we present two of the seminal pieces on the topic: first, fro the IMF: "The (sizable) Role of Rehypothecation in the Shadow Banking System" and then from one of the best scholars of shadow banking, Gary Gorton, "Haircuts." We will let readers digest the wealth of information contained in these two pieces on their own, however, we will point out the two key messages: on one hand we get a definitive explanation of why not NY but London is true hub of financial engineering and infinite leverage (recall that the UK is in fact the most levered nation on a GDP basis in the world when one takes into account all outstanding debt, not just sovereign - a fact well known to S&P and explaining why the UK will be the last to be downgraded as this would bring attention to the last domino in the chain) as follows: "Mathematically, the cumulative ‘collateral creation’ can be infinite in the United Kingdom" - that's from the IMF basically telling everyone that courtesy of no rehypothecation haircuts one can achieve infinite shadow leverage. And the other one comes from Gorton who explains why haircuts are the functional equivalent of information arbitrage: "Increases in repo haircuts are withdrawals from securitized banks—that is, a bank run. When all investors act in the run and the haircuts become high enough, the securitized banking system cannot finance itself and is forced to sell assets, driving down asset prices. The assets become information-sensitive; liquidity dries up. As with the panics of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the system is insolvent." And the punchline: "Liquidity requires symmetric information, which is easiest to achieve when everyone is ignorant. This determines the design of many securities, including the design of debt and securitization." Reread the last statement as it explains perhaps better than anything, the true functioning of modern capital markets and why they are terminally broken: in order to preserve the system, the banking cartel need to make everything of virtually infinite complexity so that no one has a clear understanding of what is going on! Which is where sites like Zero Hedge step in - to expose "shadowy" places where things are best left unseen.

Goldman On Why Things Will Get Worse Before They Get Better And Gives An S&P Target If The Eurozone Breaks Up

In his latest weekly chartology, Goldman's David Kostin takes a different route to recapping the week's events and instead of merely summarizing the market action, explains what the views of Goldman's clients are, especially the bulls among them ("Bullish investors hold more positive outlooks for margins and Europe, and argue that our target is too low. Some investors generally agree with our muted outlook for the economy and corporate earnings, but feel that an agreement to end Europe’s debt crisis will inevitably be reached next year. They argue that the stabilization of sovereign balance sheets, recapitalization of European banks, and clarity in the region’s future will cause a surge in investor confidence. Investors commonly quote 1400 as a target S&P 500 price level in this “risk-on” scenario of multiple-expansion.") and then juxtaposes to its why Goldman continues to be bearish: "We expect the situation to worsen before it gets better with market pressure necessary for progress. EU Summit demonstrates progress but lacked “regime change.” Overall, policymakers are making progress and signaled a commitment to address the twin sovereign and banking system crises. However, lack of clarity on the IMF’s role and no clear change in the ECB’s activities in sovereign debt markets will likely leave some investors disappointed." Which is precisely what we have been claiming for weeks - that unlike the other banks who are preaching rosy outlooks out of sheer terror for what a European crash would mean for them, Goldman is hoping it comes quickly, so that ostensibly several big banks can blow up, and the ECB steps in forceefully but not before Goldman's extended web of control in political Europe allows it to step into the void and become a major market presence on the continent.

Eric Sprott Fights PM Manipulation Fire With Fire: Calls Silver Producers To Retain Silver Produced As "Cash"

In what is likely the most logical follow up to our post of the day, namely the news of the lawsuit between HSBC and MF Global over double-counted gold, or physical - not paper - that was "commingled" via rehypothecating or otherwise, we present readers with the monthly note by Eric Sprott titled "Silver Producers: A Call to Action" in which the Canadian commodities asset manager has had enough of what he perceives as subtle and/or not so subtle manipulation of the precious metal market, and in not so many words calls the silver miners of the world "to spring to action" and effectively establish supply controls to silver extraction to counteract paper market manipulation in the paper realm by treating their product as a currency and retaining it as "cash". To wit: "instead of selling all their silver for cash and depositing that cash in a levered bank, silver miners should seriously consider storing a portion of their reserves in physical silver OUTSIDE OF THE BANKING SYSTEM. Why take on all the risks of the bank when you can hold hard cash through the very metal that you mine? Given the current environment, we see much greater risk holding cash in a bank than we do in holding precious metals. And it serves to remember that thanks to 0% interest rates, banks don’t pay their customers to take on those risks today." And the math: "If silver miners were therefore to reinvest 25% of their 2011 earnings back into physical silver, they could potentially account for 21% of the approximate 300 million ounces (~$9 billion) available for investment in 2011. If they were to reinvest all their earnings back into silver, it would shrink available 2011 investment supply by 82%. This is a purely hypothetical exercise of course, but can you imagine the impact this practice would have on silver prices?" And there you go: Sprott 'reputable' entity to propose to fight manipulation with what is effectively collusion, which in the grand scheme of things is perfectly normal - after all, all is fair in love and war over a dying monetary model. Who could have thought that the jump from "proletariats" to "silver miners" would be so short.

Trader Dan on King World News Weekly Metals Wrap

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 1 hour ago

Please click on the following link to listen to my regular weekly radio interview with Eric King on the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap. *http://tinyurl.com/bpc7y5j* I also want to note here that I am not posting any silver, gold or HUI charts for Friday seeing that all remain mired within very broad consolidation patterns but are constricting in range. Until something changes in that regards, there is not much worth commenting on as far as the price action goes. We are waiting for something to trigger a resolving of this sideways ranging trade. more »

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Extremely Important: More Fallout on Re-Hypothecation: physical gold/silver rehypothecated

Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 2 hours ago

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:  I will spend more time on the huge re-hypothecation story that is gripping the nation as it has huge implications for all of us.  Yesterday, a lawsuit arose between HSBC  (with client Jason Fane) vs MFGlobal (trustee) on ownership of bars registered in the name of the client who had asked the storage operator, HSBC to ship the gold to another warehouse Brinks. more »

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Peace on Earth. Now buy a gun.

noreply@blogger.com (Patrice Lewis) at Rural Revolution - 3 hours ago

Here's my latest WorldNetDaily column entitled Peace on Earth. Now Buy a Gun . 

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If I Had To Buy One Currency, I Would Buy The Swiss Franc

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 3 hours ago

The main currencies I am long are the Yen and the Swiss franc. I do own some euros. I do own some U.S. dollars. What would I buy right now? I would probably buy the Swiss franc if I had to buy something today. *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* 

 
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If China Collapses, It’s Not The End Of The World

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 5 hours ago

Well, first of all, China is a third the size of the U.S. economy. Europe and America are 10 times the size of China. So even if China collapses, it’s not the end of the world and even if China booms, it’s not going to save the world. It’s important, it’s very important but it’s not the most important thing. China is trying to slow down and some parts of their economy are going to fail, collapse, they are going to have some bankruptcies. Europe is certainly extremely important, what’s going on there but Europe as a whole is in much better shape than we are. Europe as a whole is not ... more » 

I Have A Very Special Stock Tip For You

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 6 hours ago

I have a very special stock tip for you. The symbol is g-o-l-d. That is what I prefer to hold. Both the euro and the dollar are long-term undesirable currencies, especially given zero interest rates in the U.S. Equities to some extent become like cash because they become a store of value compared to cash at a zero interest-rates. Paintings become a store of value, stamps become a store of value. - *in Bloomberg TV* Related, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*

The Ultimate "All-In" Trade

We have spent a great amount of time recently discussing both the re-hypothecation debacle and the 'odd' moves in CDS - most specifically basis (the difference between CDS and bonds) shifts and the local-sovereign-referencing protection writing. Peter Tchir, of TF Market Advisors, provides further color on the latter (as the 'Ultimate' trade) and in an unsurprising twist, how the former was much more critical during the Lehman 'moment' and will once again rear its ugly head. Exposing the underbelly of these two dark sides of the market must surely raise concerns at the fragility of the entire system - as we remarked earlier - but the lessons unlearned, on which Peter expounds, from the Lehman period are reflective of regulators so far behind the curve that it is no wonder the market's edge-of-a-cliff-like feeling persists.




Dear Congress: Bernanke Just Lied to You

Posted by : EB

Post date: 12/10/2011 - 11:11

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve System is now writing letters to Congress in response to Bob Ivry articles.  Someone's scared...

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