Happy New Year...

Biderman On 2012: Long Gold, Short EUR And Stop Praying For A Miracle

Wearing a shirt that only a mother could love, Charles Biderman of TrimTabs offers his insightful perspective on the year ahead. Against the backdrop of a fog-bound Sausalito, Biderman sees only one path over the medium-term for Gold (up) as developed market central bankers print their respective fiat currencies and emerging market central bankers horde the one true sound money alternative. Just as we have been pointing out, he notes that the ECB has been QE-ing in all but name and the region faces at best a recession and at worst a depressionary breakup. Cost averaging into a Long Gold, Short EUR position is among his favorite ideas for 2012. Furthermore, he likes non-USD commodity producers in local currencies - implicitly long commodities and short the USD but it is his epiphany that a 'Miracle on Main Street' is hoped for by any and every market observer and media hack that rings truest. The hoped-for miracle that explosive growth (just as has always been the case post WWII) is just around the corner and will rescue us from the doldrums-like state we are meandering through is simply our heuristic biases run wild (together with an entire industry of asset managers and strategists who always see 10-15% appreciation ahead in broad equity markets over the next year). Until there is a total restructuring of developed market economies to the point where entrepreneurs are encouraged to act and where government spending is 'closer' to government income and not to 'wish fulfillment', there can be no jump-start to growth. Political will remains bereft of desire to do anything but kick the can down the road - and unfortunately, that can is getting bigger and heavier by the minute.

Jim’s Mailbox

December 30, 2011, at 7:20 pm
by Jim Sinclair 

Hi Jim,

Iran is heating up. They’re going to test fire long-range missiles tomorrow. Wonder if that’s why gold was up today?
The New Year should be quite eventful!
New Years Greetings,

CIGA Black Swan

Iran to fire long-range missiles in drill-agency Fri Dec 30, 2011 9:45am EST
By Parisa Hafezi
TEHRAN, Dec 30 (Reuters) – Iran will fire long-range missiles during a naval drill in the Gulf on Saturday, a semi-official news agency reported, a show of force at a time when Iran has threatened to close shipping lanes if the West imposes sanctions on its oil exports.
Iran threatened on Tuesday to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz if it became the target of an oil export embargo over its nuclear ambitions, a move that could trigger military conflict with countries dependent on Gulf oil.
"The Iranian navy will test several kinds of its missiles, including its long-range missiles, in the Persian Gulf on Saturday," Admiral Mahmoud Mousavi, deputy commander of the Iranian navy, told Fars news agency.
More…








Oil May Rise as Iran Threatens to Block Strait, Survey Shows By Mark Shenk – Dec 30, 2011 3:02 PM ET
Oil may rise next week after Iran’s threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for shipping crude, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Thirteen of 32 analysts, or 41 percent, forecast oil will increase through Jan. 6. Ten respondents, or 31 percent, predicted prices will decrease and nine estimated there will be little change. Last week, 38 percent of surveyed analysts expected a decline.
Futures surged to $101.77 a barrel on Dec. 27, the highest intraday price since Dec. 7, after Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency cited Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi as saying the country would bar shipments through the strait if sanctions are imposed on its oil exports.
More…





Official and Unofficial Liquidity Injections Translate Into Gold & Silver Accumulation  
CIGA Eric

While money concentration tends to follow price, it can be associated with nearly every type of market action. Most often, particularly in gold and silver, money flows concentrate as price advances and declines. For example, commercial trader accumulation (long buying and short covering) and retail distribution (long selling and short selling) tends to occur as price declines. There are exceptions. Strong markets can display slow concentration during sideways chop or what Jim has described as accordion chop. Strong market, such as intensive silver buying in early 2011, can force commercial buying and short covering into strength; this condition is highly rare and illustrates extreme strain of control.
Fundamental trigger can be official or unofficial. Strong hands are accumulating gold and silver because large sums of unofficial liquidity (such as loan and currency swaps) entering the global financial system. Any official QE announcement, while perhaps surprising the public, would be little more than further public omission of an ongoing problem.
Hi Mr. De Groot,
In your latest article "Silver from investment darling to pariah" it says in the end "(6) Unfortunately, the cycle of panic, already predicted by long-term cycles, will return with even greater intensive." Does that suggest that the correction in Silver may not be complete yet?
Also, the chart Silver London P.M Fixed and the Silver Concentration Index (CI) was very interesting. Will you update that chart on your blog once there is a "earthquake before the price eruption"?
In order for Silver to take off do you think there has to be a fundamental trigger first? For example that the Fed or the ECB announces more QE at a meeting?
Kind regards,
Thomas
More…

 

In The News Today

December 30, 2011, at 12:45 pm
by Jim Sinclair 

Dear Friends,

This is pure global QE. The Fed provides the swaps which is a form of loan for the ECB to lend to their banks who in turn buy Euro Federal paper.
The veil is so thin and the result is exactly the same as QE in this global world with the Fed the world central bank of central banks. The slightly better than expected Italian bond issue is a hoax.
Regards,
Jim

“Banks borrowed €17.307B from the ECB overnight, a very sharp jump from the €4.321B borrowed on Wednesday and the highest level since February. Banks deposited €445.683B, still near the €452.034B record set earlier this week.”
More…

Delusions of the Euro Zone: The Lies that Europe's Politicians Tell Themselves

the link is here.

 

 

 

 

John Mauldin – The Matterhorn interview

This Lars Schall interview with John Maldin is posted over at the goldswitzerland.com website...and is well worth reading and the link is here.

Peter Grandich doubles his gold price challenge to Kitco's Jon Nadler

and the link is here.

 

 

 

 

Ron Paul Wants to Check Fort Knox for Gold

The link is here.

 

 

 

 

Japan's new tax law prompts bullion sales spree

and the link is here.

 

 

 

 

Please consider making a small donation, to help cover some of the labor and cost for this blog.

Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified