David Rosenberg: "What Is Wrong With This Market?

What is wrong with this market? The S&P 500, instead of grinding higher in the aftermath of QE3 actually hit its peak for the year the day after the policy announcement. Go figure. Maybe economic reality finally caught up with Mr. Market (there is a very fine line between "'resiliency" and "denial" — and keep in mind that the S&P 500 is still up 14% in a year in which profits are now contracting, not just slowing down)... On average, six weeks hence, the S&P 500 was up more than 9% after the policy announcement. It was all so novel! Tech on average was up over 11%, industrials were up 12%... ditto for Consumer Discretionary and Materials. The cyclicals flew off the shelves. But this time around. either Mr. Market is jaded or the laws of diminishing returns are setting in. Six weeks after the unveiling of QE3, the market is down 2%. This hasn't happened before. Every economic-sensitive sector is in the red, and even Financials — the one sector that should benefit from all the "sucking at the Fed teat" — have made no money for anybody!

The World In Three Charts

Bernanke has fired his infinite bazooka and yet markets have done nothing but slide since and macro-economic data are showing further signs of weakness (New Orders and Capex) with the reality under the headlines of a housing 'recovery' hardly green-shoots. Draghi remains sidelined with his conditionally infinite bazooka as his region of the world slides deeper and deeper into the abyss of recession/depression with IFO expectations and New Orders slumping and deleveraging continuing. So, it seems, the hope for moar-money from central-bankers remains squarely on the shoulders of the PBoC. However, a glimmer of green shoots as a gentle acceleration PMI (and New Export Orders? to Japan?) suggest (as Goldman's Jim O'Neill would have us believe) that the Chinese have manufactured a slow landing (for now - given 'their' data). Hardly the driver for the next major round of stimulus that is so required to fill deleveraging shoes (leaving aside the question of food inflation concerns). So a 'blip' of a green shoot in China is in fact nothing to be celebrated as the world remains a closed-loop (no martians yet) and two of the world's three largest economies are lagging badly. Look at these three charts and decide which way the world is heading!
 

Putting It Into Perspective: One Week Of QE 3 In Minimum Wage Job Terms

By now everyone knows that as part of QEternity, Uncle Ben is currently monetizing $40 billion in MBS per month, a number which as we first forecast hours after its announcement and which everyone is now piling on to reaffirm, will rise to $85 billion in outright, unsterilized monetization beginning January 1, 2013 (as anything less would be seen as impllicit tightening in a market which now needs $85 billion in Fed Flow monthly simply not to collapse). This is fungible money which is going solely to benefit the banks, whose reserves with the Fed swell, and which proceeds can be used for virtually any purpose - from buying MBS (which they are doing) to 300x P/E stocks like AMZN - but not to be lent out to those desperately seeking loans? Why: one simple reason - the banks are already mired in legacy litigation from loans made during the last housing bubble (just see the hundreds of mortgage-related lawsuits Bank of Countrywide Lynch is a defendant in and you will get a sense of how bad it is) and the last thing they need is a repeat of that. And while the Fed has only one monetary easing pathway, which always goes through the banks, we wish to demonstrate to our readers what, in a thought experiment ignoring all the obvious practical considerations, the equivalent benefit to the general population would be if instead of being held by the banks and used to make the rich even richer, this money would bypass the banking syndicate and go straight to the US job seeker...

John Taylor: Is Our Version Of The 1987 "Can't Lose" Paradigm Melting Down?

"The price action over the past few weeks in the wake of the markets getting more from the Fed than they could have ever expected heading into an election is a clue that the times indeed could be a changing. The 1987 paradigm underwent a similar period of choppy trade before melting down. Of course, crashes by their nature are a rare breed and the probability of one occurring is astronomically low. That said, should the S&P 500 fail to hold the 1400 level over the next few days (especially on a closing basis) we wouldn’t wait around too long in anticipation that the modern day version of LOR will save the day. The chart makes it clear that quantitative easing has diminishing returns. Soon they could be negative."
 

FOMC Preview: Nothing Now, Moar Later

Last month, hours after the announcement of QEternity, we said that in validation of the 'Flow' model taking over from the Fed's flawed 'Stock' model, the Fed will have no choice but to continue the long-end $85 billion in monetary flow addition to the market, if not economy (i.e. expand the QE program from $40bn per month to $85bn per month starting in January - in order to maintain the 'flow' post-Operation Twist). Last night, Goldman has officially agreed with us (as has Bloomberg's chief economist Joe Brusuelas). It appears that starting January 2013 Ben is really going to town. But don't expect this to be announced today. It will, as Goldman speculates, be disclosed at the Fed's December FOMC meeting. For now, two weeks ahead of the election, expect more "autopilot" from Bernanke as coming up with any surprises 'now' would be seen as beyond political.

Let Me Destroy Two Myths In Media Today

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 4 minutes ago

*Myth #1) New home sales soared to highest since April 2010* The Government reported today that new home sales came in at a* seasonally adjusted* 389k vs. 385k expected. Please note the emphasis on "seasonally adjusted." The prior month's reported number was revised lower (of course) to 368k (seasonally adjusted) from 373k. No one knows except the insiders at the Census Bureau how the seasonal adjustments are calculated. HOWEVER, if you read through the press release from the Census Bureau, you find that the actual number of new homes that were "sold" in September was 31,000. ... more » 

 

Greg Smith of Goldman Fame Walks Into the Wall Street Lion's Den

Partrick Star Knows How To Handle Gold

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago

Traders bullish and bearish on gold at setup 1 and 2 (chart 1) might considered joining Patrick Star under his rock by holding the A-wave declines rather than playing the timing game against the invisible hand. While the invisible hand's primary target is spec funds' black boxes, it considered any collateral damage to retail money (including the gold community) as an added bonus. Chart... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 

 

Federal Reserve: History & Politics

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 3 hours ago

Unfortunately, most of the heads of the Federal Reserve in United States history have not understood what's going on. It's a political appointee, and whoever can brown-nose the best gets the job. - *in Yahoo Finance* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* 

 

Silhouettes of Price Management By The Invisible Hand

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 4 hours ago

What market tied to national interest (security) is not managed? Rockefeller, Carnegie,Vanderbilt, etc controlled markets and resources long before it became fashionable to cite the ESF as cause of every observed effect. The scatter plot below illustrates one of several silhouettes of price management in the gold market by invisible hand (chart). The six week price performance of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 

 

I Don’t Believe Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus Works On The Economy

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 4 hours ago

I don’t believe fiscal and monetary stimulus works on the economy. It may have side effects and unintended consequences, but it is not empirically proven that if you throw money at the system you solve any problems. - *in CNBC * *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* 

 

Bernanke: All He Understands Is Money Printing

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 6 hours ago

Mr. Bernanke does not understand anything about currency. He does not understand finance. He does not understand economics. All he understands is money printing; that's the man's whole intellectual career. - *in Yahoo Finance * *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* 

 

If You Can’t Take A 20 Percent Decline, Don’t Get Out Of Your Bed In The Morning

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 6 hours ago

I believe globally we are faced with slowing economies and disappointing corporate profits, and I will not be surprised to see the Dow Jones, the S&P 500, the major indices, down from the recent highs by say, 20 percent. That is not a big decline. If you can’t take a 20 percent decline, don’t get out of your bed in the morning. - *in CNBC * * **Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM); * *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*

Five Reasons NatGas Prices Have Stabilized

While the infamous 'Gundlach' trade has done remarkably well since inception, our view on NatGas has become less vociferously bullish recently as the more constructive factors such as an under-appreciation of declining production and rising utility demand. While their remains upside potential to gas prices over the next 18 to 24 months, we tend to agree with Credit Suisse as they note five reasons why a near-term pause in pricing is likely. With unconventional supply more resilient than many had expected - covering the fall in conventional supply and absent an extremely cold winter (which NOAA is not expecting), a range-bound NatGas pricing market seems the new normal (for now).

Greece Is Not Spain - But Is It Eastman Kodak?

With Greece making headlines with extensions rumors (from the Greeks) and denials (from the Germans), we continue to hear of the resurgence in the Greek stock market. It must mean something after all - its up almost 90% in the last few months! The following two charts may give those who 'believe' a little pause for thought as the Athens Stock Index was down 91% from its 2007 highs before it rebounded and we remind those 'option' buyers that Eastman Kodak had fallen 93.5% from its highs before rebounding a remarkable 300% off the March 2009 lows, before giving up all of that into bankruptcy just a few short years later. Recency bias is a behavioral instinct that this market has become beholden to - but perhaps a step back might enable a little more perspective on just where we are.

Generational Wealth And Upward Mobility

Both capitalism and democracy promise the opportunity for upward mobility. Capitalism offers upward mobility to anyone with a profitable idea or productive skillset and work ethic. Democracy implicitly promises a "level playing field" of meritocracy, where talent, drive and hard work open opportunities for advancement. Crony capitalism offers wealth to the class that already possesses it. Feudalism bestows "rights" to wealth to a favored few. In a way, upward mobility is a real-world test of a nation's economic and social order: if upward mobility exits in name only, then that nation is neither capitalist nor democratic. Stripped of propaganda and misleading labels, it is a feudal society or a crony-capitalist economy masquerading as a capitalist democracy.  The wealth that could have been transferred to the next generation has been consumed suporting a "middle class" lifestyle and providing the next generation with what was once the basis for advancement: a university education, healthcare insurance, a reliable vehicle, etc. Now that jobs are hard to find and compensation is low, the next generation still needs the accumulated wealth of the household to get by. That is not upward mobility, it is downward mobility, on a vast and largely unnoticed scale.

New Home Sales Highest Since April 2010... Until One Reads The Fine Print

On the surface, today's New Home Sales number was great (as always tends to happen just before a presidential election): a print of 389K seasonally adjusted annualized units sold in the US (ignoring the 37.3% collapse in the Midwest), which was a 5.7% increase from August's downward (unlike initial jobless claims, when one is attempting to report an increase, the last number is always revised downward) revised 368K (was 373K). This number was the highest adjusted print since April 2010, which makes for great headlines. So far so good, until one looks beneath the headline and finds that the 389K number (to be revised lower next month), is based on a September unadjusted number of 31K in actual sales, consistting of 3K sales in the Northeast and MidWest each, 16K in the South and 9K in the West. This is the unadjusted number, which as last week's BLS fiasco with Initial Claims showed, applying seasonal adjustments is the easiest and best way to manipulate any data set (for more see X-12 Arima's FAQ). This was the lowest print since February's 30K, the same as August's 31K, and well below the 35K from May 2012.

What Do CEOs Know That The Consumer Doesn't?

Each and every day, a veritable smorgasbord of CEOs are trotted out before our very eyes to spew forth their company's vision and how it's all looking so rosy. Of course we hang on every word as gospel and react accordingly. Similarly, a rise in consumer sentiment is more ammunition for bulls to argue that animal spirits are here and we can go back to the old re-leveraging ways of spending-more-than-we-have (or ever will have). There's only one problem - when push comes to shove and real capital has to be put to work, its not happening! Expectations for capital expenditure (investment in growth and maintenance) has plunged in the last few months, while at the same time, consumer sentiment has surged (no doubt led by an ebullient equity market and inherent recency bias). As we wrote previously, in an environment of soaring liquidity and free money, the hurdle rate on new investments collapses, as does the requirement to invest in CapEx, both growth and maintenance. In fact, as we have shown over the past year, the age of the global asset base has hit a record high across the world, both in the developed and developing countries, leading to record low return on assets on record low assets (and record debt encumbrance, but that's a different story). And since companies are forced to dividend cash to shareholders at a record pace (in lieu of fixed income in a ZIRP environment), there is less and less cash left to support CapEx spending (or hiring!).

Full Mario Draghi Pro-Inflation Speech To Germany

For all those wondering why next time Mario Draghi will need to pull a "Merkel Lampoons Greek Vacation" next time he comes to Berlin, and is accompanied by 7,000 policemen, here is the Goldmanite's full speech, with the five key lies highlighted for general consumption.

It Is Time To Pare Back

Printing trumped the European recession until the spigots were either turned off or became ineffective. What else is that you can promise the markets after “limitless” and “uncapped” play out? With short rates at just above Zero, with everything promised now except the kitchen sink and with the economies in a major part of Europe falling into the abyss where is it that you think we are going besides down? I would argue that the central banks did what they could, delayed the inevitable but that it was always a question of when and not if before earnings turned grim and the markets reversed.

Visualizing The Extremes Of Risk And Reward

With all the hope slooshing around the world, it is likely no surprise that some risk-reward connections have 'broken' or become misaligned. In an effort to simplify the view of asset class risk and return, we present Morgan Stanley's Yield vs Volatility chart. It seems relatively plain to see that the Russell 2000 (and European stocks SX5E) are dramatically over-priced (under-'yielded') relative to their risk, while Asian and European High Yield credit (and to a lesser extent Asian and European Investment Grade Credit) are trading notably cheap relative to their volatility. So for all those performance chasing asset-allocators who remain fundamental bulls, buying European High Yield credit seems the best bang for your buck - instead of piling into more Russell 2000 beta...interestingly the S&P 500 appears 'fair' compared to risky sovereigns, global stocks, and global credits from a risk-reward perspective.

Andalusia Seeks Greater Bailout From Spain, Says Amount For Regional Bailout Fund Was "Underestimated"

The latest headline out of broke Europe, where Germany entering recession apparently benefits from a rising EURUSD even as Mario promises to print even more currency, is perfectly expected: the insolvent Spanish region of Andalusia has requested even more bailout aid. From Bloomberg:

• Spanish region of Andalusia says it is seeking more aid from Spain
• Andalusia Says Spain Must Help as Regions Shut Out of Markets
• Fund set up by central government to aid regions is only option

And what we have said all along:

• Amount for Spanish regions’ fund was “underestimated:” Andalusia spokesman says

 

Facebook Squeezes Up 25% Pre-Open Amid Earnings/Upgrades

  Everyone's favorite internet narcissism site has exploded in the pre-market. After reporting some not as bad as expected numbers, analysts at Citi, BofAML, and Stifel have upgraded the wunder-stock to BUY and that has sent this 14% of float shorted stock up 25% - to its huge gap-down level from 7/26 (last earnings). Technical squeeze of all-clear? With 23 Buys, 15 Holds, and 4 Sells, what can go wrong? Especially with ~$16bn of market cap from lockup expirations due to hit within two months.

Hyper Mario Draghi Speaks

The Goldman pro-inflation emissary is now in Berlin. We can only hope he is not using a wheelbarrow as a pedestal. Here are his quotes...

Buy Athenian Bottle, Rag, And Petrol Futures

No surprise Europe remains highly vulnerable to sudden sentiment shifts. How to stablise it? The usual smoke & mirrors are conveying what might or might not be good news on Greece [since denied]. The crisis in Europe may be contained, but it clearly isn't solved. "Europe is like an overweight dinosaur on a crash diet, that's got really really bad toothache with not a dentist in sight." But But But.. yesterday's ructions weren't just about the political shenanigans that pass for markets these days. There are deep undercurrents roiling these placid markets. All of which leads us to wondering what happens next? If this continues what hope for next year? Low low yields and global economic depression? Boy scout time...

Germany Officially Rejects Latest Greek Lie

Literally minutes ago we made it clear that the Greek FinMin is now officially lying on the tape, declaring his "hope" as a fact. It took Germany moments after our post to chime in and confirm that indeed, things are very, very serious, if the finance minister of a country is now blatantly lying. Via BBG

• GERMAN SPOKESMAN: NO BASIS FOR 2-YR GREEK EXTENSION REPORTS - DJ

And EURUSD spike on the rejection of the lie. In other news, the market is about as unmanipulated as the Mitt Romney flash smash yesterday.

Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: October 24

After absorbing the latest PMI reports from Europe, as well as yet another disappointing German IFO survey which in turn was followed by a sharp rise in volatility, saw equity markets in Europe print lows of the day. However ever since, equities staged an impressive recovery and are now in positive territory, supported by investors looking to capitalise on oversold conditions and in part by short-positions being squeezed. The sharp and unpredictable mood swings resemble one suffering manic depression and it remains to be seen whether stocks will be able to hold onto gains. The move higher in stocks has been led by the tech sector, which has been one of the worst performing sectors over the recent weeks. Looking elsewhere, EUR underperformed its peers, largely driven by a lower EUR/GBP (by-product of deterioration in EU credit markets, as well as good sized buying by a UK bank in GBP/USD).
 

Total Confusion: Greece Says Troika Agreement Reached, Germany Says "Nein"

What better way to start the morning for EUR trading algobots (which at last check account for 50% of the volume and rising) than with a bout of total confusion over the Greek bailout (non) extension. On one hand we have the Greek FinMin Stournaras saying a two year grace period has been reached - something which the European core has said is not standalone, and which will need much more bailout cash, and on the other we once again have Germany flat out denying this report, saying the official Troika reports has not been completed, and that Greece is expected to show deviations from the fiscal plan. From Kathimerini: "Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras has informed journalists that there is an agreement between the Greek government and the troika on all aspects of the austerity and reform program and the coalition is likely to be in a position to submit the measures to Parliament by the end of the week.  “The package has been sealed,” Stournaras is reported to have told journalists, less than 24 hours after coalition partners Democratic Left and PASOK expressed objections to some aspects of the measures."  And yet, moments ago, headlines blast that GERMANY DEP FINMIN:TROIKA REPORT ON GREECE NOT YET FINISHED and GREEK REPORT TO SHOW DEVIANCE FROM AGREED GOALS, KAMPETER SAYS. Go figure it out.

Goldman Goes To German: Draghi To Enter The Lion’s Den

Unlcear if as on recent occasions, there will be 7,000 policemen protecting him: Mario Draghi travels to Berlin today to meet with key German parliament members involved in the eurozone crisis policy.  This private meeting is the ECB president’s effort to defend his new bond buying plan as a legitimate instrument in its monetary policy arsenal. Germany’s legislative backing is critical for Draghi’s plan to buy up Spanish and other eurozone area government bonds. The Bundesbank president, Jens Weidmann, says the program is tantamount to financing governments by printing money, which is prohibited by the ECB’s founding treaty. ECB presidents normally give evidence to the European parliament but rarely if ever address national legislatures especially behind closed doors.  This journey is highly unusual but a critical sell for Draghi. Today’s session will be followed by a press briefing at 4pm local time by Mr. Draghi and Bundestag leader Norbert Lammert.

Frontrunning: October 24

• China May Forgo Easing as Economy Rebounds, Survey Shows (Bloomberg)... or as food and house inflation has never gone away
• China Edges Out U.S. as Top Foreign-Investment Draw Amid World Decline (WSJ)
• Fed to keep buying bonds despite firmer U.S. growth (Reuters)
• Bernanke Seen Attacking Jobless Rate With QE Until His Term Ends (Bloomberg)
• Mortgage applications plunge 12%, down for third week in a row (Dow Jones)
• Exchanges Retreat on Trading Tools - Fund Managers, Regulators Say Certain Orders Are Risky, Aid High-Speed Firms (WSJ)
• Europe Bank Chief to Defend Bond-Buying Plan (WSJ)
• Japan, China Envoys Met Last Week for Talks on Island Feud (Bloomberg)
• Goldman’s Pill Says ‘Guerrilla’ ECB to Impose Losses on Skeptics (BBG)
• Chance rise of an Obama defeat (FT)
• King Says BOE Is Ready to Add to QE If U.K. Recovery Fades (Bloomberg)
• Rajoy Sees Case for Slowing Spain’s Austerity as Economy Shrinks (BusinessWeek)
• Hong Kong Intervenes to Defend Peg as Upper Limit Tested (Bloomberg)

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