Thursday, October 25, 2012

Manufactured Market Drama

Manufactured Market Drama

My Dear Friends,

1. The entire reason that I launched into the explanation of spread trading was to demonstrate how it is used to manipulate markets.
 

2. Recognizing the multiple blocks at $1775 and $1800, it was obvious a line was being drawn in the sand.
 

3. In that market situation a reaction was reasonable to anticipate.
 

4. I wanted to drive home to you the fact that all the market drama as seen today is manufactured by the gold banks.
 

5. QE cannot stop or the economic implosion would blow up your computer screen.
 

6. If some nitwit Chairman tried to stop QE you would have a few days of dollar strength followed by a collapse of the currency based on the economic implications.
 

7. Then gold’s highest possible estimates would come into focus as the downward spiral already in place in the Western world did in fact present itself as a black hole.
 

8. The event horizon to a total collapse is QE to infinity, as was anticipated.
 

9. QE’s focus is to prevent financial balance sheet collapse both privately and publicly internationally.
 

10. Jobs are only created the way Roosevelt did it, and that was by Federal invention of jobs if required when conditions are as they are now. Remember the conservation corp and all the make-work jobs that were invented in the 30s?
 

11. The thought that any candidate can change the present situation is intellectual garbage of those who do not even know there is economic law. Once violated, those laws brings consequences.
 

12. This, like all reactions, will be completed when it is completed, and that will be soon.
 

13. You could see the spread cartel working all day.
 

14. Do not be stampeded into turning over your gold investments to the greedy shorts now open mouthed and waiting like a wolf for its prey.
 

15. Simply ignore this, taking my hand in the knowledge that this is no different from the many similar plays made by exactly the same people all the way from $248 to the $1900s.
 

16. Email me if you are confused or simply need my help.
 

17. I will personally return your communications, answering your questions.
 

18. Gold is going to and through $3500 and those that find this humorous are the same people that laughed and scorned me at $529.40 when I told you that the very long term breakout had occurred, the strongest magnet among all was $1650 and gold would trade there and above.
Please shut off your quote machine and email me before your emotions drive you wild and directly into the mouth of the wolf, the short spreader.

Respectfully,
Jim

In The News Today


Morning Rumor Control

Yesterday’s popular myth gone viral in the community is that gold banks have infinite liquidity to depress the price of gold. That assumes that gold is the trading center of the entire market universe, which I am sorry to tell you, it is not. It might be my and your universe, but the gold banks compared to other markets is small. You have to assume with that rumor that all the major investment banks do is eat, sleep and think gold. That is also untrue.
I have to inform you that gold banks do not have unlimited liquidity for the gold market. That rumor is busted!


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
 
Absolutely true!

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Silver Demand In China For Wealth Protection To Climb to Record 7,700 Tons

Bloomberg reports that Chinese silver demand is set to climb nearly 10% next year as investors look to preserve their wealth. Although China as the 2nd largest world economy may be in an economic slump, investors are seeking out silver as a value alternative investment.  Silver climbed 15% this year and ETF’s holding silver have gained 6.5%. Research from Beijing Antaike said that 33% of the country’s demand comes from jewellery and coins, the rest for use in photography, solar panels electrical appliances.  “Many producers and investors have hoarded the precious metal in the form of ingots or unwrought silver.” After the US Fed’s QE1, (December 2008-March 2010) silver rocketed 53%, almost twice the jump as gold, and for QE2, (ending June 2011) silver rose 24%. Morgan Stanley predicts that silver will again return more than gold after QE3 was announced this September. Chinese national statistics show that jewellery sales rose 19.3% for the first eight months compared to last year.  “I’m bullish on silver, so I personally have stockpiled 3 tons of it at home,” Yang Guohui, president at Hunan Yishui Rare & Precious Metals Recycling Co., said in Xiamen on Oct. 17. Yishui is based in Yongxing County, Hunan province, where about 20 percent of China’s silver is from, according to Huang Xiaoming, head of the local precious metals management bureau.
 

Presidential Election Preview 1: Timeline And Fiscal Cliff Flowchart


The fast-approaching US presidential election is perhaps one of the most important in recent history, with Goldman noting that the fate of near-term US economic growth, medium-term US fiscal stability (and, with it, the US sovereign debt rating) and monetary policy hinging on the outcome. In an effort to provide as succinct a view of these potential events, we present a four-part series previewing the big day. Below, we lay out the key dates and likely paths to resolution of the "fiscal cliff"; the most important and most imminent challenge that the elected candidate will be forced to face just after the election.


Sudden Risk-Off Bout Attributed To Groundless Fitch Rumor

While there is little news aside from a modestly disappointing pending home sales print, risk assets in general are bleeding quite notably. USD is strengthening and Treasuries are rallying as commodities slide and stocks tumble. The chatter is a rumor that Fitch is about to downgrade the US below AAA. We find this highly suspect as there would be hell to pay for doing this two weeks before an election (and Fitch themselves have said that there would be no downgrade until 2013 at the earliest). Of course, this is merely the market gurus attempting to come up with a narrative to explain yet another intraday sell-off, which is now coming with dangerous regularity for the bulls.


Is The World Abandoning The U.S. Economy?

Go to any university, any center of equities trade, any meeting place for financial academia, any fiscal think tank, and they will tell you without the slightest hint of doubt in their eyes that the U.S. economy is essential to the survival of the world.  To even broach the possibility that the U.S. could be dropped or replaced as the central pillar of trade on the planet is greeted with sneers and even anger.  But let’s set aside what we think (or what we assume) we know about the American financial juggernaut and consider the sordid history of the money powerhouse myth. China’s incredible gold buying extravaganzas over the past few years indicate that they are indeed hedging against what they obviously expect will be devaluation in the dollar or multiple currencies around the world including the dollar.


The Possibility Of An Eurozone Breakup

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago
I do not think it will happen right away because the politicians want to keep the Eurozone intact, but the situation in Portugal, Greece, Spain, Italy and even France is actually unsustainable in the long run because of the unfunded liabilities. So a Euro break up will probably happen sometime in future, but not for another three or five years. - *in Economic Times* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* 
 

The Global Trend of Economic Stimulation, Bailouts, and Currency Devaluation

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
While the perma-bears embrace the deflationary argument of lower equity and gold prices, they ignore the fact that the world is heading down an inflationary path defined by endless stimulus, bailouts, and currency devaluation. A growing number of citizens of Western economies understand this path as falling standard of livings from previous generations. Headline: Japan plans $5B... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 
 

Video: Agriculture, Farmland, Gold, QE3

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 3 hours ago
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* 
 

We Have Peaked Out And We Are In A Downtrend

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 3 hours ago
We have peaked out recently a couple of weeks ago and we are in a downtrend. Eventually, the markets will be down 20%, but will be oversold in about 10 days' time to two weeks' time. So there can be a year-end rally, but certainly no new highs in the markets. - *in Economic Times * * *Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (ETF) (EEM) *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*


An Hour Of Your Time Has Never Been Worth Less

Whether it's deleveraging, spare capacity, dollar debasement, productivity gains, or just plain old obesity, in real purchasing power terms, an hour of your time has never been worth less. In the 40 years since Nixon's 1971 fiat-fiasco, the value of the average hourly earnings for US citizens has dropped 90% in terms of Gold. The last time that our labor's efforts garnered such a low value saw a twenty year credit-blown releveraging (from 1980 to 2001) to save-us-all; we suspect that debt saturation will limit the ability of any central bank to create such a 'recovery' in labor-value once again. Since the peak in 2001, 60 minutes of your valuable time has lost 81% of its purchasing power! Is this what globalization looks like?

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A Great Victory For Windmills

There are two countries that are going to give you a whopper of a headache in the coming months. We are leaving Greece to the side for a moment because that country could provide a heart attack and necessitate bypass surgery as the Troika fiddles while Athens burns. We are just waiting to see what is agreed to for Greece and then how the citizens of that country respond but the home of Democracy is not the only place that could ratchet out of control; keep your eyes on Spain and France. Yes, France, while no one has paid particular attention to the antics in Paris and Monsieur Hollande scurries about siding with the troubled nations and advocating a 75% tax burden and leaving Berlin to wallow in schemes of their own making; they are on the verge of getting in real trouble. Furthermore, they say that beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and in my eyes, the finances of Spain are one ugly mess of spoiled tapas. We recall Prime Minister Rajoy’s “A great victory for Europe speech” and we state that the last time Europe had such a victory it was at Waterloo!




Initial Claims Beat This Week, Will Miss Post Revision, As Core Capital Goods Shipments Miss For Third Month


When we reported on the surge in last week's initial claims from 342K to 388K, we made one simple forecast: "Remember: this number will be revised to 391K next week." We were off: it was revised to 392K. In other words, the data charlatainism at the DOL continues unabated. And of course, today's Initial Claims number which magically "beat" expectations by 1K, printing at 369K, on expectations of 370K, will be revised to a miss of 372K next week. The BLS has become a total farce. In other manipulated news, the BLS reported the culprit for last week's surge in Claims: it was California, which saw a +26,935 jump in initial claims, due to "Layoffs across all sectors, with the largest share from the service industry." This somehow is supposed to offset the -4,979 claims drop from the week before, when all those plunges and jumps in claims took place. Elsewhere, the number of Americans on extended claims and EUCs dropped to 2.1 million, down 1.4 million from a year earlier.



Sovereign Self-Interest Versus European Hegemony

There were moments yesterday when it felt we stood at the edge of the abyss preparing to take a giant leap forwards. Apparently Draghi did a great job meeting German legislators yesterday; Greece is being touted as a crisis averted - if you believe all the guff; and more of the same from Spain. However, it does feel the crisis is developing in some new directions. Until recently it’s been about sovereigns and banks – but now we’re seeing corporates struggle. There is a general consensus France had no choice but the bailout Peugeot’s finance arm PSA. So why are the problems of the French car industry so important for the Euro? If French industrial policy is founded on preserving the country’s manufacturing base is that really something German/Finish/Dutch taxpayers could have been bailing out through a single European banking union. Perhaps not! These are national choices that illustrate sovereign self interest not European hegemony. We simply ask the question how is Europe supposed to move towards closer Union when national interest remains paramount?




Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: October 25

Heading into the North American open, equities in Europe are seen higher, supported by financials and basic material stocks. With banks benefiting from improved credit spreads in Europe, while reports from the Chinese industry ministry saying that China’s industrial output may be faster in Q4 than in Q3 underpinned the strength by basic material sector. In terms of EU related commentary, the Spanish treasury chief has said that Spain is almost fully funded until year end and can start funding itself for 2013 adding that the ECB has already been very explicit about details of a potential bond-buying plan for Spain. He added that Spain's central government funding program for 2013 will also cover regions' financial needs. In turn, spreads tightened, with SP/GE below the 400bps level, with cash inflows via looming redemption/coupon payments also weighing on German Bunds. However the focus has been on the latest UK GDP print, which came in much higher than the median estimate and also above the upper est. GBP/USD continued to advance, with EUR/GBP on path to make a test on 0.8000 to the downside. Going forward, the second half of the session sees the release of the latest weekly jobs and durables reports.


Frontrunning: October 25

  • Japan grapples with own fiscal cliff (Bloomberg)
  • Japan Protests After Four Chinese Vessels Enter Disputed Waters (Bloomberg)
  • Asian Stocks Rise as Exporters Gain on China, U.S. Data (Bloomberg)
  • An obsolete Hilsenrath speaks: Fed Keeps Rates Low, Says Growth Is Moderate (WSJ)
  • ECB Said to Push Spain’s Bankia to Swap Junior Debt for Shares (Bloomberg)
  • Spain’s Bad Bank Seen as Too Big to Work (Bloomberg)
  • China postpones Japan anniversary events (China Daily)
  • Carney Says Rate Increase ‘Less Imminent’ on Economy Risk (Bloomberg)
  • Credit Suisse to Cut More Costs as Quarterly Profit Falls (Bloomberg)
  • Obama offers a glimpse of his second-term priorities (Reuters)
  • Draghi defends bond-buying programme (FT)
 





Today’s Items:

First…
Syria Rebels Have US-Made Weapons
http://www.bbc.co.uk
A senior Russian general states that the mercenaries err… rebels have been supplied with anti-aircraft weapons, including US-made Stingers.    It will be a little hard for the Department of Injustice to blame this on gun dealers; as they tried to do when Operation Fast-and-Furious went south.    The question is; although it does not take any stretch of imagination to figure out, where did they get those weapons?   So, let’s hear another Obama lie on the matter.

Next…
Obama Lied Again!
http://www.reuters.com
Emails confirm that officials at the White House were told of the militant claim two hours after the Libya attack.   It was not the You Tube video that Obama, and others in his administration, tried to lay blame on.    As time goes on, the White House story is unraveling like a cheap sweater.    At this point in this pathetic lie, one can easily say that Obama lied while people died.

Next…
People Are Getting Scared And Liquidating
http://kingworldnews.com
Stephen Leeb says that people are getting scared and they are liquidating, or running for cover.   Because of paper trading, even gold and silver are down, which will add to a buying opportunity.   When it comes to gold, he goes on to say that China’s purchases of gold are up three-fold year over year and other central banks are scooping it up as well.   This is because when it is discovered that Germany cannot repatriate their gold in a timely manner, people will finally believe there is a shortage and that paper means nothing; therefore, after preparing, keep stacking.

Next…
New Home Sales Highest Since April 2010
http://www.zerohedge.com
New Home Sales were 389,000 in the month of September; however, this number is based on a September unadjusted number of 31,000 in actual sales.  Oops!    If you are thinking this sounds like the bogus BLS report a couple of weeks ago, you may be right.   In fact, the Census Bureau took the sale of 11,000 actual new completed homes and extrapolated an annualized, seasonally adjusted number of 389,000. In short, the facts coming out of Washington are anything but facts.

Next…
Federal Prosecutors Sue Bank of America
http://dealbook.nytimes.com
Well, it appears that $15 million donation err… loan by Bank of America to the Obama campaign just was not enough because federal prosecutors are accusing the criminal enterprise, known as Bank of America, of carrying out a mortgage scheme that defrauded the government during the depths of the financial crisis.   Defrauded the government?   How about the people who lost everything?   So, how will Bank of America try to raise capital for their defense?

Next…
The Worst Fees Charged by Big Banks
http://www.cnbc.com/
Here are some reasons to get your money out of big banks…
1. The 30-34 dollar overdraft penalties.
2. The 2-3 dollar statement fee.
3. The 50 cent remote deposit fee.
4. The 15-20 dollar wire transfer fee.
5. Teller fees if you talk to a person at the bank.

Finally, please prepare now for the escalating economic and social unrest. Good Day!

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