While the 0.4% perfectly unmanipulated and totally coincidental swing in the unemployment rate in an Obama favorable direction one month before the election came at a prime time moment for the market, one hour ahead of the open, setting the market mood for the rest of the day (which despite all best efforts still closed red, valiant efforts by Simon Potter and the FRBNY's direct pipe to Citadel notwithstanding), there was one other, far more important data point released by the government's department of agriculture, sufficiently late after the market close to impact no risk assets. That data point of course was foodstamps (or the government's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, aka SNAP), and we are confident that no readers will be surprised to learn that foodstamp usage for both persons and households, has jumped to a new all time record.... Finally, and putting it all into perspective, since December 2007, or the start of the Great Depression ver 2.0, the number of jobs lost is 4.5 million, while those added to foodstamps and disability rolls, has increased by a unprecedented 21 million.
from KingWorldNews:
Today John Embry told King World News, “I won’t be really excited in this market until we see a $100 up day, and I think that’s coming sooner than most people realize.” Embry also stated, “… as physical demand accelerates, availability is declining, and that bespeaks higher prices.”
Here is what Embry, who is Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, had to say: “The people on the long side have figured out the game and they know the wind is at their back. So when one of these raids is staged, there is just a wall of buying lined up at a certain place, and that’s why these declines stop and then they reverse quite quickly.”
John Embry continues @ KingWorldNews.com
Today John Embry told King World News, “I won’t be really excited in this market until we see a $100 up day, and I think that’s coming sooner than most people realize.” Embry also stated, “… as physical demand accelerates, availability is declining, and that bespeaks higher prices.”
Here is what Embry, who is Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, had to say: “The people on the long side have figured out the game and they know the wind is at their back. So when one of these raids is staged, there is just a wall of buying lined up at a certain place, and that’s why these declines stop and then they reverse quite quickly.”
John Embry continues @ KingWorldNews.com
by Michael Pento , 321Gold.com:
U.S. second quarter GDP was significantly revised downward last week
from the previously reported 1.7%, to just 1.3%. The paltry 1.3% reading
on GDP followed a first quarter print that was already an anemic 2%.
Also reported last week was the worsening state of consumer’s income.
Their take home pay (after taxes and inflation are considered) dropped
0.3% in August, as their savings rate fell to just 3.7%, from 4.1%
during the prior month. Another worrisome report showed manufacturing
activity in the Chicago region contracted for the first time in three
years in the month of September, according to the MNI Chicago Report
released on Friday.
But that weak and worsening economic data didn’t stop investors from sending stocks higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 4.3% and the S&P advanced 5.7% in the third quarter. However, any economic growth to support those moves was seriously lacking. The simple reason behind the ebullient stock market during last quarter was the Fed’s persistent threat to soon launch a massive amount of debt monetization. Mr. Bernanke followed through on that threat by announcing an open-ended counterfeiting scheme on September 13th.
Read More @ 321Gold.com
But that weak and worsening economic data didn’t stop investors from sending stocks higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 4.3% and the S&P advanced 5.7% in the third quarter. However, any economic growth to support those moves was seriously lacking. The simple reason behind the ebullient stock market during last quarter was the Fed’s persistent threat to soon launch a massive amount of debt monetization. Mr. Bernanke followed through on that threat by announcing an open-ended counterfeiting scheme on September 13th.
Read More @ 321Gold.com
by Veritas Research, Financial Sense:
Fundamental analysis of “buy and hold” companies is a quaint, Warren Buffetish notion that probably works in the long term. But as Keynes said, in the long term we’re all dead. The big risk in today’s über-correlated markets is systemic shock. One can practice due diligence on a company and buy at a reasonable valuation, but if global markets collapse the next day and don’t recover for years, one has paid a lot in opportunity cost. In other words, tail risk is not reflected in fundamental analysis.
Fundamental analysis is valuable so long as the basic fabric of capital markets remains intact. In an insane world (where U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds are considered “risk-free”, of infinite rehypothecation, where MF Global’s John Corzine walks off with $200M segregated assets, of the London Whale, animosity and the dollar’s loss of world reserve status) it’s unlikely that business-as-usual will continue without a disruptive bout of creative destruction.
Read More @ financialsense.com
Fundamental analysis of “buy and hold” companies is a quaint, Warren Buffetish notion that probably works in the long term. But as Keynes said, in the long term we’re all dead. The big risk in today’s über-correlated markets is systemic shock. One can practice due diligence on a company and buy at a reasonable valuation, but if global markets collapse the next day and don’t recover for years, one has paid a lot in opportunity cost. In other words, tail risk is not reflected in fundamental analysis.
Fundamental analysis is valuable so long as the basic fabric of capital markets remains intact. In an insane world (where U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds are considered “risk-free”, of infinite rehypothecation, where MF Global’s John Corzine walks off with $200M segregated assets, of the London Whale, animosity and the dollar’s loss of world reserve status) it’s unlikely that business-as-usual will continue without a disruptive bout of creative destruction.
Read More @ financialsense.com
Regime Uncertainty And The Fallacy Of Aggregate Demand
According to the Paul Krugman, the “confidence fairy” is the erroneous belief that ambiguity over future government regulation and taxation plays a significant role in how investors choose to put capital to work. To the Nobel laureate, the anemic economic recovery in the United States shouldn’t be blamed on this “uncertainty” but rather a “lack of demand for the things workers produce.” The theory which puts a lack of aggregate demand as being the cause of economic recessions has the issue backwards. Demand by itself doesn’t add to the stock of goods in society; only production does. Because economic theory deals with the interactions of mankind it needs to be applicable to all times and places. On a desert island, only a true charlatan would insist that a “lack of demand” is holding the primitive economy back from its full potential. Desert islands are no different from today’s economy; both are still dominated by scarcity. If the world economy is ever going to recover, the obstacles put in business’s place have to be lifted to make way for investment in real, tangible goods and services. Consumption will come after.
from RTAmerica:
There has been a lot of hassle in Washington DC over cyber-security recently. The US Chamber of Commerce hosted a summit that brought together big businesses and government officials to discuss the future of cyber threats this week.
There has been a lot of hassle in Washington DC over cyber-security recently. The US Chamber of Commerce hosted a summit that brought together big businesses and government officials to discuss the future of cyber threats this week.
Why Risk-Free Assets Are Risky
We all know shorting volatility is dangerous. We
learned our lessons from the financial crisis. We all meticulously
read “The Black Swan” and then watched the scary movie adaption of the
book starring Natalie Portman. We all know that this method produces a
steady stream of smooth returns making people think you are a genius
until the inevitable disaster forces you to pawn off your Nobel Prize. We
all know that shorting volatility will cause you to go insane with a
twisted psycho-sexual obsession to master the art of ballet. It’s
picking up pennies in front of a convexity steamroller. Knowing these facts we would like to pose a question...Which
is riskier right now? Shorting a collateralized far out-of-the-money
S&P 500 index put or buying a “risk-free” US treasury bond? Hint: Now the market for safety has an efficient frontier on par with the penny in front of the steamroller trade? If you don’t find that scary then you’re not paying attention.Coming To A Gas Station Near You?
This
is neither from the near (or distant) future, nor from a movie
starring Will Smith in which he fights vampire zombies (at least not
yet). It's from the here and now, Calabasas, CA to be precise. And it
may be coming to a gas pump near you in the immediate future.
On This Day In History, Gas Prices Have Never Been Higher (Again)
While we are told to assume it is entirely transitory and speculation-driven, the price to drive your brand new GM Truck (leased for 30 years, interest-only via your EBT card) has never been higher. Do not worry though since this is only temporarily going to mean 'little Timmy' needs to go without food. As a Public Service Announcement, we have also estimated that the opportunity cost of every additional $1/gallon is just 16-20 $0.99 iGizmo apps you can do without for a week (but given sentiment surveys it would seem you do not need any further sedation).
Gold And Triffin's Dilemma
We have mentioned the little-known Belgian economist's works a couple of times previously (here and here) with regard his exposing the serious flaws in the Bretton Woods monetary system and perfectly predicting it's inevitable demise. Triffin's 'Dilemma' was that when one nation's currency also becomes the world's reserve asset, eventually domestic and international monetary objectives diverge. Have you ever wondered how it's possible that the USA has run a trade deficit for 37 consecutive years? Have you ever considered the consequences on the value of your Dollar denominated assets if it eventually becomes an unacceptable form of payment to our trading partners? Thankfully for those of us trying to navigate the current financial morass, Robert Triffin did. Triffin's endgame is simple. A rapid diversification of reserves out of the dollar by foreign central banks. The blueprint for this alternative has been in plain sight since the late 1990's, and if you watch what central banks do – not what they say – you can benefit.
from Capital Account:
The ECB plans to use its unlimited bond buying program, known as OMT, to buy sovereign bonds for one or two months and then suspend purchases during an assessment period, according to Reuters. Attempts to reflate the global credit supply have truly reached new levels. The central bank has gone from traditional monetary policy of setting interest rates, to buying US treasuries and government agency debt, to then buying mortgage backed securities to bolster the housing market.
All this is done under the guise of the Fed’s “dual mandate” of promoting full employment and price stability. And yet, the only thing central bankers have managed to achieve as they break the laws of physics is to inverted time and space and suck whatever duration is left out of the bond market. To help us contemplate life after the death of interest rates and the credit system, we talk to Chris Martenson, author of “The Crash Course.” Among other things, we ask Dr. Martenson how he thinks the issue of credit expansion is compounded by global energy resource depletion and population growth.
Meanwhile, August consumer credit rose more than forecast according to the Fed. The 18.12 billion dollar rise, the most in three months, was driven by borrowing for education and automobiles. We ask Chris Martenson, if this a sign that the credit bubble is reflating or if we are we past the deflationary point of no return.
The ECB plans to use its unlimited bond buying program, known as OMT, to buy sovereign bonds for one or two months and then suspend purchases during an assessment period, according to Reuters. Attempts to reflate the global credit supply have truly reached new levels. The central bank has gone from traditional monetary policy of setting interest rates, to buying US treasuries and government agency debt, to then buying mortgage backed securities to bolster the housing market.
All this is done under the guise of the Fed’s “dual mandate” of promoting full employment and price stability. And yet, the only thing central bankers have managed to achieve as they break the laws of physics is to inverted time and space and suck whatever duration is left out of the bond market. To help us contemplate life after the death of interest rates and the credit system, we talk to Chris Martenson, author of “The Crash Course.” Among other things, we ask Dr. Martenson how he thinks the issue of credit expansion is compounded by global energy resource depletion and population growth.
Meanwhile, August consumer credit rose more than forecast according to the Fed. The 18.12 billion dollar rise, the most in three months, was driven by borrowing for education and automobiles. We ask Chris Martenson, if this a sign that the credit bubble is reflating or if we are we past the deflationary point of no return.
Who Is Winning The Race To Debase?
For nearly 30 years, two of the world's largest economic nations (China and the US) have continually debauched
debased the purchasing power of their currency. For the last 12 years,
the rest of the world joined in. So who is winning the race to debase
now? It appears globalization was really all about currency debasement
and exporting inflation (i.e. loss of FX value) with debt being the
inflation buffer (i.e. borrow to afford or vendor-financing - see AMZN).
The problem now is the entire world is saturated with debt and so
there is no-one left to export inflation to anymore. We do indeed live
in interesting times.Bonds Down, Stocks Down, Gold Down, Oil Down, Jobs... Up?
While
Europe was ripping higher this morning, commodity prices were slipping
quietly lower and Treasury prices higher as the USD was very modestly
higher and US equity futures were treading water. The payroll print provided the fuel to pump us up to within a tick of the year's highs in the S&P,
smashed the USD weaker, twanged Treasury yields higher and sent
Financials and Materials zooming higher. Unable to break those record
highs, stocks reversed as Energy (Oil was sliding once again) and Tech (AAPL) led them lower.
Within a few hours we had retraced the entire NFP spike in FX and
equity markets but Treasury yields kept pushing higher (30Y +14bps on
the week). Gold closes green on the week while Oil/Silver/Copper were red as the AUD lost almost 2% against the USD and EUR gained 1%.
AAPL tumbled 2%, closing below its 50DMA for its biggest 2-week slide
in six months. VIX was jabbed under 14% briefly but ended fractionally
lower on the day at 14.4% (-0.2vols). Equities and risk-assets
disengaged today and equity's inability to manage a late-day ramp (and
AAPL closing at lows) must be a little concerning for the cheerleaders.
by Staff Report, TheDailyBell.com
UN warns on food security as prices hit six-month high … Food prices around the world jumped by 1.4pc in September to a six-month high, the United Nations said, as the severe US drought cut grain harvests. Rabobank thinks the consumer impact could be less painful this time around compared to 2008, when there were severe shortages of wheat and rice. That is because today’s shortages are being seen more in crops used as animal feed, such as corn and soybeans. None the less, analysts expect concerns over food security to remain at the fore, given the long-term upwards trend in commodity prices and the risks posed by the volatile global climate. – UK Telegraph
Dominant social theme: Scarcity abounds …
Free-market Analysis: The volatile global climate? It’s enough to make someone believe in weather control via HAARP!
That’s how elite scarcity memes work, after all. Say the power elite wants to create a perception of energy scarcity … We’ve written about this in the past.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com
UN warns on food security as prices hit six-month high … Food prices around the world jumped by 1.4pc in September to a six-month high, the United Nations said, as the severe US drought cut grain harvests. Rabobank thinks the consumer impact could be less painful this time around compared to 2008, when there were severe shortages of wheat and rice. That is because today’s shortages are being seen more in crops used as animal feed, such as corn and soybeans. None the less, analysts expect concerns over food security to remain at the fore, given the long-term upwards trend in commodity prices and the risks posed by the volatile global climate. – UK Telegraph
Dominant social theme: Scarcity abounds …
Free-market Analysis: The volatile global climate? It’s enough to make someone believe in weather control via HAARP!
That’s how elite scarcity memes work, after all. Say the power elite wants to create a perception of energy scarcity … We’ve written about this in the past.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com
by Robert Parry, Global Research:
The instant analysis after the first presidential debate — even on liberal-leaning MSNBC — was that Mitt Romney was the decisive “winner.” But Romney not only ducked the specifics of his plans but looked sneaky and nervous in doing so, writes Robert Parry.
In the presidential debate that I watched on Wednesday night, Republican challenger Mitt Romney was shiftier than Dick Nixon in 1960 and less coherent than George W. Bush in 2000, but the TV pundits, including on MSNBC, overwhelmingly declared him the winner.
When I tried to follow Romney’s logic, I couldn’t. Somehow the federal government was supposed to rein in rising health care costs but his only idea for doing so was to let the free-market work when it is clear that – whatever the shortcomings of “Obamacare” – the old model of health insurance was broken.
Read More @ GlobalResearch.ca
by Mike Adams, Natural News:
In a bizarre development on the fight for Proposition 37 (the GMO labeling initiative) in California, the “No on 37″ campaign, funded by Monsanto and other agribusiness giants, has been forced to pull one of its own television ads.
The ad featured an opinion from an individual identified on screen as “Dr. Henry I. Miller M.D., Stanford University, founding dir. FDA Office of Technology.”
But the title was a lie! Just like everything else about GMOs, it’s all truly a bunch of lies based on fraud and trickery. As it turns out, Dr. Henry Miller doesn’t work for Stanford University at all. He’s actually a “research fellow” at the Hoover Institution, which just happens to be physically located on the same plot of land as Stanford University.
Read More @ NaturalNews.com
by Susanne Posel, Occupy Corporatism:
Economists claim that overpopulation is causing poverty in underdeveloped nations. In the Philippines, there is an initiative to control the burgeoning population by forcing family planning onto the citizens. Josefina Natividad, director of the University of the Philippines’ Population Institute (UPPI), explains: “If you increase access to contraceptives for women … you will have births averted.”
The UPPI began with a grant from the globalist think-tank the Ford Foundation in 1964. They influence the Philippine government with research and coercion to push population control agendas with a focus on its impact on local and international communities. The UPPI works with UN-sponsored non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to receive technical assistance in providing reproductive health products.
A reproductive health bill is being pushed by Catholic priests in the Philippines that is expected to “slow population growth”. The church asserts that this will lead to the ideal that abortion is a viable way to keep more children from being born.
Read More @ OccupyCorporatism.com
from ravenise0:
Press TV has conducted an interview with Merlin Miller, US presidential candidate for the American Third Position party.
by Simon Black, Sovereign Man :
You just can’t make this stuff up.
Late last week, a bill HR 6566 was introduced on the floor of the US House of Representatives. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I read it.
The bill is entitled the “Mass Fatality Planning and Religious Considerations Act,” and its stated purpose is “[to] amend the Homeland Security Act of 2002 to require the Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency to provide guidance and coordination for mass fatality planning…”
Hmmmm. Homeland Security. FEMA. Sounds like a fun party.
Read More @ SovereignMan.com
Donations will help defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations. Thank you for your contribution.
You just can’t make this stuff up.
Late last week, a bill HR 6566 was introduced on the floor of the US House of Representatives. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I read it.
The bill is entitled the “Mass Fatality Planning and Religious Considerations Act,” and its stated purpose is “[to] amend the Homeland Security Act of 2002 to require the Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency to provide guidance and coordination for mass fatality planning…”
Hmmmm. Homeland Security. FEMA. Sounds like a fun party.
Read More @ SovereignMan.com
from Off Grid Survival:
The Obama Administration is yet again acting without congressional approval, this time to purchase a $165 million prison in western Illinois. Thomson Correctional Center, which was built in 2001, will now be owned and run by the federal government.
Late night, a federal appeals court gave the Obama Administration what they were asking for, the right to lock up American Citizens without a trial.
Read More @ OffGridSurvival.com
Our regular readers know we’ve got a lot of heartburn when it comes to the antics and actions of the Transportation it is one of the most lawless federal agencies in existence.
But for the most part, that is us talking; it’s incredibly more damning when one of the agency’s current, – or, in this case, former – personnel talk about the TSA’s culture of criminality.
Pythias Brown, a former TSA employee at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey, who spoke to ABC News recently in his first public comments after being released from prison, said he was part of a “culture” of apathy within the agency that permitted corrupt employees – and there are a lot of them, apparently – to prey on passengers’ luggage and personal items with abandon, thanks in large part to nonexistent oversight and tips from fellow TSA workers.
Read More @ NaturalNews.com
The World Health Organization (WHO) released an alert to doctors concerning a new SARS virus that appears to be race-specific – attacking individuals of Arab descent.
One man from Saudi Arabia diagnosed with pneumonia and acute renal failure that died in July and another from Qatar has had their DNA sequenced. It was discovered that the virus that killed both men were the same. However, to distract the public, Gregory Hartl, WHO spokesperson is claiming that the two men contracted the new SARS from animals. There is no proof that the new SARS is contagious or spread from human-to-human.
John Watson, professor of respiratory diseases at the Health Protection Agency states that no healthcare workers exposed to the new SARS have come down with the disease. According to a HPA statement: “Preliminary inquiries have revealed no evidence of illness in contacts of these two cases, including health-care workers. Based on what we know about other coronaviruses, many of these contacts will already have passed the period when they could have caught the virus from the infected person.”
Read More @ OccupyCorporatism.com
Please Donate The Obama Administration is yet again acting without congressional approval, this time to purchase a $165 million prison in western Illinois. Thomson Correctional Center, which was built in 2001, will now be owned and run by the federal government.
Late night, a federal appeals court gave the Obama Administration what they were asking for, the right to lock up American Citizens without a trial.
Read More @ OffGridSurvival.com
by J. D. Heyes, Natural News:
Our regular readers know we’ve got a lot of heartburn when it comes to the antics and actions of the Transportation it is one of the most lawless federal agencies in existence.
But for the most part, that is us talking; it’s incredibly more damning when one of the agency’s current, – or, in this case, former – personnel talk about the TSA’s culture of criminality.
Pythias Brown, a former TSA employee at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey, who spoke to ABC News recently in his first public comments after being released from prison, said he was part of a “culture” of apathy within the agency that permitted corrupt employees – and there are a lot of them, apparently – to prey on passengers’ luggage and personal items with abandon, thanks in large part to nonexistent oversight and tips from fellow TSA workers.
Read More @ NaturalNews.com
by Susanne Posel, Occupy Corporatism:
The World Health Organization (WHO) released an alert to doctors concerning a new SARS virus that appears to be race-specific – attacking individuals of Arab descent.
One man from Saudi Arabia diagnosed with pneumonia and acute renal failure that died in July and another from Qatar has had their DNA sequenced. It was discovered that the virus that killed both men were the same. However, to distract the public, Gregory Hartl, WHO spokesperson is claiming that the two men contracted the new SARS from animals. There is no proof that the new SARS is contagious or spread from human-to-human.
John Watson, professor of respiratory diseases at the Health Protection Agency states that no healthcare workers exposed to the new SARS have come down with the disease. According to a HPA statement: “Preliminary inquiries have revealed no evidence of illness in contacts of these two cases, including health-care workers. Based on what we know about other coronaviruses, many of these contacts will already have passed the period when they could have caught the virus from the infected person.”
Read More @ OccupyCorporatism.com
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