Sunday, December 13, 2015

Hilsenrath Just Reset Market Expectations: "Fed Is Worried Rates Will End Up Right Back At Zero"



"In short, the age of unconventional monetary policy begun by the 2007-09 financial crisis might not be ending."
- Jon Hilsenrath





About That Rate Hike...

This is where the Fed. now finds itself. Here they were. Just holding policy lines doing what they in their Ivory Tower contemplated and the so-called “smart crowd” insisted they do. And now the saying of “Between a rock and a hard place” might be an understatement. The world sits atop a tinderbox fueled by monetary policies that created them and awaits a match that could set it off in a blaze of who knows what. All in short order. Unless they don’t do anything except try their best Draghi impersonation and declare, “They too are once again at the ready to do what ever it takes!” Except – just not now.



The Coincidences Are Just Too Eerie: This Is The Last Time CCC Yields Were Here And Rising

When was the last time the same index was at precisely 17.24% and rising? The answer: the weekend Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy 

Second Warning: Get Out Of Your Bond Fund Before It’s Gated

by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:

The junk bond bubble has exploded.  Yesterday a public mutual fund “specializing” in the lowest-rated segment of junk bond market announced that it was suspending redemptions and liquidating its assets.  It’s debatable whether or not it will be able to sell the nuclear garbage in the fund unless the Fed prints up some money and buys it.
Today Stone Lion Capital Partners gated one of its hedge funds “specializing” in distressed debt (defaulted and near-default bonds and bank debt).  Interestingly, Stone Lion was founded by two former Bear Stearns employees after Bear Stearns choked to death on fraudulent mortgage paper.  Stone Lion disclosed that it had received redemption requests that were significantly in excess of its ability to sell enough holdings in the fund to meet the requests.
Read More



India's Failing Gold Monetization Scheme: Seizure Imminent?

“A finance ministry official said if banks fail to win over temples, the government could intervene directly as it is looking for a big boost to the scheme to keep both imports and the current account deficit under control.”
 



San Francisco Housing Bubble Goes Subterranean: $500/Month To Live In A Crawlspace

"We aren't going to sugar coat this, as you can see by the photos, this is a basement crawl space and the ground is un-even. My roommate Neil has agreed to help out and level off the dirt crawl floor and we have some scraps of rug to throw down. There is a decent amount of room for a mattress and night stand..."



In Dramatic Twist, CEO Of "Gating" Third Avenue Is Fired, "Not Allowed Back In The Building"

And just like that last week's junk bond debt fund liquidation and redemption suspension, which first struck at the mutual fund giant Third Avenue and promptly spread to a hedge fund launched by the former heads of distressed and high yield trading from, get this, Bear Stearns, and was supposed to be quietly buried, went front page and nuclear following a WSJ report that the CEO of Third Avenue, David M. Barse, who had been with the company for 23 years, has been fired.



"Ferocious Surprises" Await Bonds Traders In 2016

It should be easy to at least get the direction of interest rate changes correct, most of the time.  Instead as we see in the chart here, professional money managers always get this wrong (and truth be told this pattern has been going on for many cycles).  The problem is just as bad when it comes to predicting stock price changes for the following year. While both risks in stock and bond markets are again smouldering in advance we focus our attention here on the knottier and more pertinent idea of the dispersion about interest rates expected for 2016.  In other words, what should this probability distribution of outcomes or errors best look like?



Goldman Confirms China's New FX Index Signals Further Yuan Devaluation To Continue

Confirming what we explained here, Goldman Sachs notes that the publication of a new CNY exchange rate index suggests an increased focus on broader CNY moves against other non-USDollar currencies and reinforces the likelihood of further depreciation versus the USD.



Hit-And-Run Driver Arrested After Her Car Calls Police

Welcome to the future, ladies and gentlemen. "A driver allegedly involved in two hit-and-run incidents was tracked down after her car alerted the police. As reported by local news outlets, an unusual 911 call to emergency services took place on Friday in Port St. Lucie, Florida. You would usually expect a human voice on the end of the line, but in this scenario, a Ford vehicle alerted the police to a collision."


Why would Washington want to stop something that took them so long to start... The endless war continues...

If Washington Were Serious About Defeating Terrorism, It Would Have An Entirely Different Playbook

If the United States were truly serious about terrorism, it would start by gauging the level of threat properly and communicating that appraisal to the American people: We would also have a more honest and open discussion about our own role in generating it; we would now be having a frank discussion about the role of the media; we’d also see more creative efforts to discredit, marginalize, spoof, and embarrass the groups we oppose; and you’d see a more hardnosed approach to the various American “allies” who are part of the problem rather than being part of the solution.

"Stick With The Bull" Indeed: 10 Out Of 10 Barrons "Experts" Again Predict The S&P Will Rise 10% In 2016



The Donald Responds To "Dopey, Daddy's Boy" Saudi Prince's Slur









France's Far-Right Nationalist Party Swings From First To Worst; "Routed' In Regional Election Run-Off

A week ago, fear was tangible as France's far-right Front National party won an unprecedented 2 provinces in the nation's first elections since the Paris terror attacks. With 40% of the votes, Marine Le Pen's party dominated the mainstream political parties and status quo maintainers were beginning to quake. Now, a week later, with turnout surging from 50% to 59%, Front National has been "routed" according to AP, failing to win any regions.


Remember what happened to the jew's after being disarmed...

Cuomo, Schumer Unveil Cunning "No Guns For Dangerous Terrorists" Plan

In what is possibly the most inane political statement ever, U.S. Senator Charles Schumer and Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced a push to prevent known or suspected terrorists from purchasing guns in New York State. Schumer and Cuomo areasking the federal government to officially add the U.S. Terror Watch List to the criteria it uses for federal background checks in New York State, exclaiming "we need to move to close the Terror Gap once and for all."



The End Of The Bubble Finance Era

We are nearing a crucial inflection point in the worldwide bubble finance cycle that has been underway for more than two decades. To wit, the world’s central banks have finally run out of dry powder. They will be unable to stop the credit implosion which must inexorably follow the false boom.



The Godfather Of Climate Change Calls Obama's Deal "A Fraud, It's Bullshit"

"It's a fraud really, a fake," says James Hansen rubbing his head. The former NASA Scientist, considered the father of global awareness of climate change, exclaimed "It's just bullshit for them to say: 'We'll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.' It's just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned."

Using spices to heal disease: Indian doctor devotes career to using therapeutic power of ancient medicine

by Julie Wilson, Natural News:

In many parts of the world, including India, spices are considered sacred and used both as a food and for medicine. Due to their effectiveness, this ideology has now spread into Western medicine. Written by Bharat B. Aggarwal, Healing Spices: How to Use 50 Everyday and Exotic Spices to Boost Health and Beat Disease, details the story of an Indian doctor who has dedicated his career to making scientific breakthroughs involving the use of spices to treat chronic diseases.
The following is a snippet from his book:
Spices have been in my life—in my diet, in my medicine cabinet, and in my thinking—since I was a youth growing up in Punjab in northern India. And now—as Professor of the Department of Experimental Therapeutics at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center—spices are the subject of many experiments in my laboratory, where my colleagues and I are discovering the molecular and biochemical secrets behind the therapeutic power of these ancient medicines, and conducting human studies to put those secrets to use in the battle against cancer.
Read More

ISRAEL TESTS ICBM INTERCEPTOR

from TheNextNewsNetwork:


Waiting for the Fed

by Alasdair Macleod, Gold Money:

Change the title of Samuel Beckett’s play to substitute the Fed for Godot, and you have a fair description of the tedious market for precious metals this week.
After spiking up last Friday under the influence of bear-closing, gold and silver prices have done nothing but drift lower-to-sideways all week. That said, the market imparts a feeling of a firm undertone, with backwardations in physical markets, and an absence of selling in the futures, rather than any serious demand chasing prices.
The Fed will pronounce on Wednesday. The FOMC has all but said they will raise the Fed Funds Rate target by 0.25%, and that this increase will be the first of a gradual rising trend.
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Rick Rule: “Price of silver will explode”

by Taki T., Secular Investor:
The bigger the bear market, the more furious the next bull market, especially with commodities. When a bear market like this in commodities is so deep, production will be destroyed. In a new bull market fase it takes a lot of time to build new production. That’s why the next bull market will be maniacal.
Rick Rules has decades of experience. Unfortunately he doesn’t see a bottom for gold and silver. The American dollar and US Treasuries are to strong to see a significant rise in gold and silver.
Read More

Senator SCHOOLS Obama On Senate Floor With One Perfect Sign And An Epic Speech

from Western Journalism:

Fourth graders know more than the President of the United States when it comes to saying who is behind terrorist threats to America, Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., said Thursday night in a highly emotional speech aimed at the president.
Sasse displayed a poster spelling out the acronym ISIL, which stands for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Sasse, however, omitted the first word, leaving only a capital I.
“While the White House is insisting that no one use the word ‘Islamic’ or note any connection between the war that we’re facing and some subset of Islam—even as the White House insists that no one use the word—their own preferred adjective—ISIL or ISIS—begins with an ‘I,’” he said.
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