Bob Janjuah: S&P At 800, Dow/Gold Ratio Will Hit 1 Before Next Real Bull Cycle
Bob Janjuah, who has been quiet lately (recall his last piece in which he quite honestly told everyone that "Markets Are So Rigged By Policy Makers That I Have No Meaningful Insights To Offer"), is out with his latest, in which he gives us not only his long-term preview, "ultimately I still fear and expect the S&P500 – as the global risk-on/risk-off proxy – to trade at 800, and the Dow/Gold ratio to hit parity (currently at 8, down from an all-time high of 45 in late 1999) before we can begin the next multi-decade bull cycle", but also his checklist of 8 things to look forward to in the short-term centrally-planned future.Chinese Crude Imports Remain At All Time High For Third Month In A Row
Overnight Chinese trade data came in modestly disappointing, with imports rising just 5.3% on expectations of 9% increase. However one area where imports certainly did not decline, is commodities, and especially crude. As the chart below shows, Chinese crude imports in March were virtually unchanged from February's all time high (and same as January), and while the bpd number was slightly lower due to fewer days in the month at 5.50, one thing is clear: every ounce of oil that the rest of the world does not want, China will rapaciously import and stockpile. Good luck to Saudi Arabia with perpetuating the lie that it can boost its production by 2.5 million bpd to offset Iran. And even if it can, we at least know who will be waving it all in.
Today’s Items:
Thanks to Keynesian economics for the past 100 years, the world has now reached a 190 Trillion dollar in debt.
This is more than 3 times the global GDP. As more and more paper, and digital, confetti are produced, the bigger the ponzi debt will be seen. At some point, reality will kick in, and the masses will be racing to hard assets like gold and silver.
This is more than 3 times the global GDP. As more and more paper, and digital, confetti are produced, the bigger the ponzi debt will be seen. At some point, reality will kick in, and the masses will be racing to hard assets like gold and silver.
Okay folks, the Enterprise and Lincoln
are near the Persian Gulf. Which ship will be made the sitting duck? The
Enterprise, that is going to be decommissioned, or the Abraham Lincoln –
which is supposedly Obama’s hero? Either, or both, we all loose.
Robert Fitzwilson is founder of The
Portola Group, and he is saying that rising prices will completely
overwhelm the deficit. In addition, interest rates cannot be allowed to
rise under any circumstances because the debt would become
unserviceable. In fear of rising interest rates, we are witnessing price
controls via computer algorithms. Prices and interest rates will
eventually escape their constraints and that is why it is important to
keep stacking.
Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels has signed
into law that allows citizens to use deadly force against police who
are illegally entering their homes. The new law reverses a state Supreme
Court ruling that homeowners do not have the right to use force against
law enforcement officials who they believe are illegally entering their
homes. Needless to say, the police are not happy with the prospect of a
person’s house being their castle concept.
Now those farmers in Indiana can be armed to the teeth.
Now those farmers in Indiana can be armed to the teeth.
Recent studies show that the depth of any
given country’s financial crisis is directly proportional to the degree
of deposit insurance it provides. The U.S. offers $250,000 from the
FDIC while China offers no deposit insurance. In short, get out of paper
and keep stacking.
Next…
EPA-Approved GMO Insecticide Responsible for Killing Off Bees
http://www.naturalnews.com
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
EPA-Approved GMO Insecticide Responsible for Killing Off Bees
http://www.naturalnews.com
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Chalk another one up for the corporate
corrupted EPA. While vigorously going after innocent people, they
actually allowed corporations to contaminate the food chain, by killing
bees, according to a new study from Purdue University. A call to the EPA
to ban the suspected chemicals has been made; however, the EPA appears
to be more interested in Raw Milk.
Well, James O’keefe has done it again.
This time, he impersonated Eric Holder himself and could have easily
gotten Eric Holder’s own voting ballot in a fast and furious second. The
politicized Department of Injustice is in full-spin mode saying this
video is manufactured. It is so funny watching this bastard Holder made
into the absolute blithering fool that he is.
Behind 'The Iksil Trade' - IG9 Tranches Explained
There
is a lot of talk about IG9 these days. We think the JPMorgan 'Iksil'
story has a lot more to do with tranches than with outright selling of
the index. Noone knows what exactly is going on, but we think
selling tranches without delta explains far more than just selling the
index, given the size and leverage. Critically, in the end it
is all speculation as what (if any) trade they have on but if our belief
on this being a tranche exposure (for the thesis reasons we explain)
then the explanation is far less scary.Total donations so far this year... $10.00 Thank You James H.
Please consider making a small donation, to help cover some of the labor and costs to run this blog.
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I Believe There Are Lots Of Opportunities In China's Agriculture Sector
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
I do not have any land in China. I do not farm in China but I believe there
are lots of opportunities in China's agriculture sector. The Chinese
government is doing everything it can to help agriculture. China knows it
needs to produce more food. - *in China Daily*
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful
international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New
York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The
Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*
Fed Needs a Sympathy Sell-Off To Implement QE3
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago
I wouldn't want to be in his shoes but if I were in his shoes I would wait
for the markets to sell-off to get some sympathy for implementing QE3. It's
politically not very easy to implement QE3 now. - *in Yahoo Finance*
*Related, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury
Bond ETF (TLT)*
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
French economy grinds to a halt
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
A combination of austerity, excessive debts, and political indecisiveness
have been hampering economic growth in the European Union. The weaker
members such as Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc. have been the primary victims
but even the larger economies of France and Germany are beginning to feel
the pain. The solution will be liquidity to ∞ for the western world.
Headline: ...
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content, and more! ]]
Real Estate Recovery: Are We There Yet?
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
A bottom in housing will likely exceed public and politicians expectations. While potential homeowners may have the desire to buy, lenders stripped of the ability "slice and dice" mortgage cash flows through the miracle of securitization are no longer eager to lend to them (see table). Real estate loans as a percentage of total bank credit which exceeded 42% in 2010 has fallen below 37%... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
The Rain In Spain
It sounds good when said and credible and positive but the problem is that it is one more absurd illusion. Spain, this morning, says the next round of budget cuts are going to come from Education and Health benefits which is all very nice except they do not totally come under the purview of the Spanish Federal government. The way that Spain is currently constructed these expenditures are mostly under the control of the regional governments and so that these kinds of promises by the current administration in Spain are wisps of cultivated air floating from Madrid to Berlin. Even if the Federal government could get the cuts accomplished it will take them months and perhaps months and months so that the headlines of what Spain is going to do has all of the substance of the milky froth atop some cup of coffee in Valencia that resembles a cappuccino.Iran Escalates Again, Cuts Off Oil Shipments To Spain
Those hoping for a quick and painless resolution to the Iranian question may have just seen their hopes dashed, following the breaking news from Iranian Press TV, according to which not only is Iran not seeking to appease its Western counterparts, but is, in fact escalating. From Press TV: "Tehran has cut oil supply to Spain after stopping crude export to Greece as part of its countersanctions, unnamed sources confirmed on Tuesday. Tehran also mulls cutting oil supply to Germany and Italy." "Countersactions" - lovely: another Swiss watch plan by the insolvent developed world. Said otherwise, one can hardly threaten to do something to a country, which is already doing so voluntarily, in the process hurting Europe's already crippled economies even more by removing the cheapest source of energy for both. Which however begs the question: just how much more Iranian crude are China and India importing despite promises to the contrary, and open warnings from the US not to do so?LTRO Failure Full Frontal As Spain 10 Year Approaches 6% Again
US
data this week is relatively sparse (as usual in a post payroll week)
leaving little evidence over the next few days to progress the
seasonality debate but after a long weekend of derisking in mind and now
in reality, Europe is front-and-center once again. Spain (and
less so Italy) has decompressed to its worst levels of the year (5.96%
yield and 425bps spread on 10Y) has now lost all of the LTRO gains as
the curves of these liquidity-fueled optical illusions of recovery
bear-flatten (as front-running Sarkozy traders unwind into the sad reality - most specifically for Spain - that we described in glorious must read detail here). Divergence and decoupling remain sidelined also as Deutsche Banks' Jim Reid notes the 4-week rolling beat:miss ratio in the US macro data has fallen to 24%: 73%
(3% in line) from a recent peak at a string 70%:30% on February 29th.
His view is still that in a post crisis world, especially as severe as
the one we've just been through, Western growth is going to continue to
be well below trend for many years and with more regular cycles. With
Spain teetering on the verge of a 6% yield once again, we are still off
the record wides from late November but not by much as the vicious cycle of sovereign-stress-to-banking-stress-to-banking-stress re-emerges
in style. The European situation is still incredibly political and
while we'd expect much more intervention down the line, expect the
discussions and rhetoric to be fairly tough. The ECB last week indicated
that they felt the recent widening in Sovereign spreads was more due
to sluggishness in the pace of reforms. They are therefore unlikely to
intervene in a hurry. So if Europe does need further intervention it is likely to need to get far worse again first.Chart Of "The US Recovery": Third Time Is The Charm, Or Head And Shoulders Time?
The
following chart from Bank of America captures the past three years of
American "recovery" quite starkly: the US economy, as measured by the
ISM has so far not double but triple dipped, and the
result would have been far more pronounced had the Fed not stepped in
after each of the prior two local maxima and injected trillions into the
economy. Following peaks in mid 2010 and early 2011, we are "there"
again - how long until the Fed has to jump in? And would it have already
done so if it wasn't an election year? Which brings us to our
question: third time is the charm? Or head and shoulders?Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: April 10
UK and EU markets played catch up at the open this morning following Friday’s miss in the US non-farm payroll report. This coupled with on-going concerns over Spain has resulted in further aggressive widening in the 10yr government bond yield spreads in Europe with the Spanish 10yr yield edging ever closer to the 6% level. As a result the USD has strengthened in the FX market in a moderate flight to quality with EUR/USD trading back firmly below the 1.3100 and cable falling toward the 1.5800 mark. There was some unconfirmed market talk this morning about an imminent press conference from the SNB which raised a few eyebrows given the recent move in EUR/CHF below the well publicised floor at 1.2000, however, further colour suggested an announcement would be linked to the naming of Jordan as the full-time head of the central bank when they hold their regular weekly meeting this Wednesday. Elsewhere it’s worth noting that the BoJ refrained from any additional monetary easing overnight voting unanimously to keep rates on hold as widely expected. Meanwhile, over in China the latest trade balance data recorded a USD 5.35bln surplus in March as import growth eased back from a 13-month peak.Frontrunning: April 10
- With a 2 Year delay, both FT and WSJ start covering the shadow banking system. For our ongoing coverage for the past 2.5 years see here.
- Trouble in shipping turns ocean into scrapheap (Telegraph)
- First-Quarter Home Prices Down 20.7% in Capital (China Daily)
- Bernanke Says Banks Need Bigger Capital Buffer (Reuters)
- Monti’s Overhaul Can’t Stop Pain From Spain: Euro Credit (Bloomberg)
- Spain Confronts Crisis Threat as Rajoy Seeks Deficit Cuts (Bloomberg)
- Japan’s Noda Announces Anti-Deflation Talks as BOJ Sets Policy (Bloomberg)
- White House makes case for Buffett Rule (CNN)
- Cameron to Make Historic Myanmar Trip (FT)
- 'Time for Closer Ties' With India (China Daily)
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