What Happens To Gold If We Enter A Recession or Depression?
from ETFDailyNews.com:
Jeff Clark:
Mayan prophecies aside, many of the senior Casey Research staff
believe that economic, monetary, and fiscal pressures could come to a
head this year. The massive buildup of global debt, continued reckless
deficit spending, and the lack of sound political leadership to reverse
either trend point to a potentially ugly tipping point. What happens to our investments if we enter another recession or – gulp – a depression?
Clearly, one should not assume that gold will perform poorly during a recession. Even in the crash of 2008, gold still ended the year with a 5% gain. And with the amount of currency dilution we’ve undergone since that time, it seems more likely gold will rise in any economic contraction than fall. Indeed, if the response of government to a recession is more money printing, precious metals will be a critical asset to have in your possession.
Read More @ ETFDailyNews.com
Jeff Clark:
Mayan prophecies aside, many of the senior Casey Research staff
believe that economic, monetary, and fiscal pressures could come to a
head this year. The massive buildup of global debt, continued reckless
deficit spending, and the lack of sound political leadership to reverse
either trend point to a potentially ugly tipping point. What happens to our investments if we enter another recession or – gulp – a depression?Clearly, one should not assume that gold will perform poorly during a recession. Even in the crash of 2008, gold still ended the year with a 5% gain. And with the amount of currency dilution we’ve undergone since that time, it seems more likely gold will rise in any economic contraction than fall. Indeed, if the response of government to a recession is more money printing, precious metals will be a critical asset to have in your possession.
Read More @ ETFDailyNews.com
***Caution the following story may make you vomit...and destroy brain cells...you have been warned...
The Face of Authoritarian Environmentalism
An Oregon University professor has controversially compared skepticism
of global warming to racism. Sociology and environmental studies
professor Kari Norgaard wrote a paper criticizing non-believers,
suggesting that doubters have a ‘sickness’. The professor, who holds a
B.S. in biology and a master’s and PhD in sociology, argued that
‘cultural resistance’ to accepting humans as being responsible for
climate change ‘must be recognized and treated’ as an aberrant
sociological behavior.Consumer Credit Decelerates Most Since Feb 2011
With expectations of a $12.0bn rise in Consumer Credit, yet another market 'economic' indicator flashes orange as the Seasonally Adjusted number comes in at $8.735bn - the largest miss from expectations in 6 months. Furthermore, using the Non-Seasonally Adjusted data, this is the largest sequential drop in 12 months (since the Feb 2011 plunge). While non-revolving debt managed to increase (though at a considerably lower pace) for the second month in a row the deleveraging that ended in Q4 has resumed
following the end of the retail shopping season (as revolving credit
contracted). Perhaps the same 'glitch' that destroyed Groupon, namely
accounting for product returns, is about to sweep the entire retail
industry?MF Global Trustee Giddens in 'Substantive Talks with JPM' Over Return of Stolen Customer Funds
In Its Latest Nonfarm Payroll Mea Culpa, Goldman Stumbles On THE Answer... And Changes The Rules Of The Game
The one sentence that may change everything: "...we have found some
evidence that at the very long end of the yield curve, where Operation
Twist is concentrated, it may be not just the stock of securities held by the Fed but also the ongoing flow of purchases that matters for yields..."
Jeff Snider Explains Why "Unexpected" Is Back, Right On Schedule
Before even taking into account the aftermath of the “unexpected” NFP result, it has been amazing to see over these past few months the number of experts, especially those that reside solely within the “science” of economics, proclaiming a successful engineering of the long sought-after recovery. That this has been the third such claim in as many years is lost in the noise of confusing “headwinds” that are somehow beyond the control of those that now control most everything within the financial arena. Stock speculators are beneficial components to the healthy financial transmission mechanism into the real economy (even when all they are supposed to do is provide liquidity 20,000 times per second), but anybody that dares speculate in the far more vital energy sector (or any real commodity) is the pure incarnation of evil. That these two apparently disconnected speculative classes are really one and the same shows just how obtuse (not always intentionally) economists and the pandering classes really are.from Financial Sense:
Jim welcomes back Dr. Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report this week. Dr. Faber believes shorting the markets can be a risky proposition when the global central banks will print money at the drop of a hat. He believes it is very important to stay diversified in this environment. Dr. Faber recommends dividend-paying stocks, gold, emerging market stocks and real estate.
Click Here to Listen
‘London Whale’ Rattles Debt Markets
[Ed. Note:
In a financial world perched on the very edge of the razor, this is a
very interesting development. Worth remembering is Lindsey Williams
recent warning, when the derivatives begin to implode the end is near.]
from Market Watch:
Hedge funds and other investors have been puzzled by unusual movements in some credit markets, and have been buzzing about the identity of a deep-pocketed trader dubbed “the London whale.”
from Market Watch:
Hedge funds and other investors have been puzzled by unusual movements in some credit markets, and have been buzzing about the identity of a deep-pocketed trader dubbed “the London whale.”
PROPAGANDA ALERT – Silver: Poor Man’s Gold Turning to Fool’s Gold?
[Ed. Note:
The dominant theme here is that silver is most certainly NOT money and
is rightfully returning to its lowly role as a boring industrial metal.
Nuthin' to see here folks, go buy some stocks n' bonds.]
from CNBC:
Silver bulls may be hoping that the metal’s healthy first-quarter price
rise is the first step back toward record highs. Not so fast.
Its advocates say silver which occupies a middle ground between industrial metals like copper and investment vehicles like gold, can benefit both from the fledgling economic recovery that is lifting copper and from the investment that is driving gold.
But record-high mine supply and questions over demand have left a long shadow over silver’s underlying fundamentals, while huge price volatility last year, when the metal crashed 35 percent in a matter of days on two occasions, has undermined its appeal to investors as a cheaper alternative to gold.
The broad investment environment is also bleaker than it was last year for friends of silver.
“There are two issues that in the short term suggest we are not going to head back towards $50,” Mitsui Precious Metals strategist David Jollie said. “One is that margins on Comex are still higher than they were last year, so investors are going to have to come back in in more weight to drive the price further.” He added, “At the same time, silver turnover on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is relatively low compared to where it was last year.
Read More @ CNBC.com
from CNBC:
Silver bulls may be hoping that the metal’s healthy first-quarter price
rise is the first step back toward record highs. Not so fast. Its advocates say silver which occupies a middle ground between industrial metals like copper and investment vehicles like gold, can benefit both from the fledgling economic recovery that is lifting copper and from the investment that is driving gold.
But record-high mine supply and questions over demand have left a long shadow over silver’s underlying fundamentals, while huge price volatility last year, when the metal crashed 35 percent in a matter of days on two occasions, has undermined its appeal to investors as a cheaper alternative to gold.
The broad investment environment is also bleaker than it was last year for friends of silver.
“There are two issues that in the short term suggest we are not going to head back towards $50,” Mitsui Precious Metals strategist David Jollie said. “One is that margins on Comex are still higher than they were last year, so investors are going to have to come back in in more weight to drive the price further.” He added, “At the same time, silver turnover on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is relatively low compared to where it was last year.
Read More @ CNBC.com
ELECTION 2012 A Banking Cartel COUP?
from Fabian4Liberty :
The 2012 Presidential Election is in store for some serious unrest. George Soros who has been instrumental in bloodless revolutions across the globe has all his proxies in place for the final great showdown between Good and Evil. In this video I give you MY THEORY behind what may be coming.
The 2012 Presidential Election is in store for some serious unrest. George Soros who has been instrumental in bloodless revolutions across the globe has all his proxies in place for the final great showdown between Good and Evil. In this video I give you MY THEORY behind what may be coming.
Alternatives to Protecting Wealth from Inflation
from VisionVictory:
Interesting interview for those of us who believe we are going to see radical inflation over the coming years. Daniel R. Amerman is a Chartered Financial Analyst with MBA and BSBA degrees in finance. He is a financial author and speaker with over 25 years of professional experience. Years of studying the costs of paying for over $100 trillion of US government retirement promises, as well as the costs of cashing out an expected $44 trillion of Boomer pensions and retirement accounts, have convinced him that too many promises and too much paper wealth chasing too few real resources will likely lead to substantial inflation in the years ahead, with potentially devastating implications for many savers and investors. A problem that will also apply to many other nations.
Interesting interview for those of us who believe we are going to see radical inflation over the coming years. Daniel R. Amerman is a Chartered Financial Analyst with MBA and BSBA degrees in finance. He is a financial author and speaker with over 25 years of professional experience. Years of studying the costs of paying for over $100 trillion of US government retirement promises, as well as the costs of cashing out an expected $44 trillion of Boomer pensions and retirement accounts, have convinced him that too many promises and too much paper wealth chasing too few real resources will likely lead to substantial inflation in the years ahead, with potentially devastating implications for many savers and investors. A problem that will also apply to many other nations.
Ron Paul ~ The Philosophy I’m Talking About Brings People Together. Liberty & The Constitution
JPMorgan Hedges Silver for Clients, Masters Says on CNBC
by Patrick McKiernan, Bloomberg :
JPMorgan Chase & Co. mostly hedges silver for clients, and large
speculative bets aren’t “part of our business model,” Blythe Masters,
the bank’s head of global commodities, told CNBC.
Market participants “don’t see all our activity,” and bloggers have “a misunderstanding of the nature of our business,” Masters said today in an interview on CNBC. There is “an underlying client position” involved in hedge or forward trades, she said on CNBC.
A multi-year investigation into the possibility of unlawful acts in the silver market is continuing after regulators analyzed more than 100,000 documents, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in November.
Read More @ Bloomberg.Finanza.Repubblica.it
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is the latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com.
- Headline Jobs Gain and Unemployment Rate Decline Were Statistically Insignificant
- March Unemployment: 8.2% (U.3), 14.5% (U.6), 22.2% (SGS)
- Construction Spending Stuck in Bottom-Bouncing Stagnation
- QE3 Always Has Been Dependent on Systemic Crises, Not the Economy or Inflation (Economy Has Provided Fed Cover)
- M3 Money Supply Growth Slipped in March, Signaling Potential Systemic Liquidity Crisis Intensification
"No. 427: March Labor Data, M3 and February Construction Spending"
http://www.shadowstats.com
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Egan-Jones Cuts U.S. Rating One Step to AA Citing Growing Debt By John Detrixhe – Apr 5, 2012 5:50 PM ETThu Apr 05 21:50:49 GMT 2012
Egan-Jones Ratings Co. cut the U.S. credit rating one step to AA, the second downgrade in nine months and two levels below its highest grade, with a negative outlook citing the nation’s increasing debt burden.
U.S. debt has increased to 100 percent of gross domestic product, while debt climbed 23.6 percent from 2008 to 2010, the credit-rating firm said in a statement today. Egan-Jones lowered the U.S. grade to AA+ in a July. Treasuries have gained 4.6 percent since the company first lowered the U.S. rating, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data.
The downgrade was based on “the increasing debt load coupled with the fact that there has been no tangible progress in addressing the country’s growing debt to GDP” ratio, Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones in Haverford, Pennsylvania, said today in a telephone interview. “Unfortunately, the debt is growing fairly rapidly while the GDP is not.”
Standard & Poor’s cut the U.S. grade by one step to AA+ on Aug. 5 and has a negative outlook on the country’s debt. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings assign the nation their top Aaa and AAA ratings respectively and also have negative outlooks.
More…
Given that prospect, more of the “quantitative easing” … should be a no-brainer. Yet the recently released minutes from a March 13 meeting show a Fed inclined to do nothing unless things take a turn for the worse.
So what’s going on? I think that Fed officials, whether they admit it to themselves or not, are feeling intimidated — and that American workers are paying the price for their timidity.
–Paul Krugman
Paul Krugman: Not Enough Inflation Friday, April 06, 2012
The unemployed need more help from the Fed:
Not Enough Inflation, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: A few days ago, Alan Greenspan … spoke out in defense of his successor. Attacks on Ben Bernanke by Republicans, he told The Financial Times, are “wholly inappropriate and destructive.” He’s right…
But why are the attacks on Mr. Bernanke so destructive? … The attackers want the Fed to slam on the brakes when it should be stepping on the gas… Fundamentally, the right wants the Fed to obsess over inflation, when the truth is that we’d be better off if the Fed paid … more attention to unemployment. …
O.K.,… let me take this in stages. First, about inflation obsession: For at least three years, right-wing economists, pundits and politicians have been warning that runaway inflation is just around the corner, and they keep being wrong. … At this point, inflation is … a bit below the Fed’s self-declared target of 2 percent.
Now, the Fed has, by law, a dual mandate: It’s supposed to be concerned with full employment as well as price stability. And while we more or less have price stability by the Fed’s definition, we’re nowhere near full employment. So this says that the Fed is doing too little, not too much. …
To be sure, more aggressive Fed policies to fight unemployment might lead to inflation above that 2 percent target. But remember that dual mandate: If the Fed refuses to take even the slightest risk on the inflation front, despite a disastrous performance on the employment front, it’s violating its own charter. And, beyond that,… a rise in inflation to 3 percent or even 4 percent … would almost surely help the economy. …
More…
My Dear Friends,
U.S. economy gains 120,000 jobs in March Less-than-expected increase is smallest since last fall By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
April 6, 2012, 10:31 a.m. EDT
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs in March, the smallest increase in five months, to break a recent string of strong employment gains, the government reported Friday.
The number of jobs created last month, seasonally adjusted, fell well below expectations and failed to top the 200,000 mark for the first time since November.
The March report also contained other signs of weakness. While the unemployment rate fell to 8.2%, the lowest level since January 2009, the decline occurred because more people dropped out of the labor force. It’s the first time that’s happened this year.
That’s usually a negative sign because it suggests jobs have become somewhat harder to find. Yet a raft of other economic data indicate that more companies plan to hire, so a decline in the labor force in March could be a temporary blip.
In another break with recent trends, job growth in prior months was not revised sharply higher. The economy added just 4,000 additional jobs in January and February than initially reported, according to the Labor Department’s revised figures.
The latest employment report interrupts a string of economic reports showing the U.S. on an upswing after several years of lackluster growth following the end of the 2008-2009 recession.
“The number was much weaker than expected, but does this represent a shift in the trend? That’s unclear,” said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays Capital.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes dropped 9 basis points to 2.095%, as investors sought the safety of government bonds. Yields move in the opposite direction to price.
The U.S. stock market was closed for Good Friday; U.S. stock futures fell sharply after the jobs data.
More…
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. mostly hedges silver for clients, and large
speculative bets aren’t “part of our business model,” Blythe Masters,
the bank’s head of global commodities, told CNBC.Market participants “don’t see all our activity,” and bloggers have “a misunderstanding of the nature of our business,” Masters said today in an interview on CNBC. There is “an underlying client position” involved in hedge or forward trades, she said on CNBC.
A multi-year investigation into the possibility of unlawful acts in the silver market is continuing after regulators analyzed more than 100,000 documents, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in November.
Read More @ Bloomberg.Finanza.Repubblica.it
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is the latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com.
- Headline Jobs Gain and Unemployment Rate Decline Were Statistically Insignificant
- March Unemployment: 8.2% (U.3), 14.5% (U.6), 22.2% (SGS)
- Construction Spending Stuck in Bottom-Bouncing Stagnation
- QE3 Always Has Been Dependent on Systemic Crises, Not the Economy or Inflation (Economy Has Provided Fed Cover)
- M3 Money Supply Growth Slipped in March, Signaling Potential Systemic Liquidity Crisis Intensification
"No. 427: March Labor Data, M3 and February Construction Spending"
http://www.shadowstats.com
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Well it is not Standard & Poors, but it does have the trend right for the right reasons
Egan-Jones Cuts U.S. Rating One Step to AA Citing Growing Debt By John Detrixhe – Apr 5, 2012 5:50 PM ETThu Apr 05 21:50:49 GMT 2012
Egan-Jones Ratings Co. cut the U.S. credit rating one step to AA, the second downgrade in nine months and two levels below its highest grade, with a negative outlook citing the nation’s increasing debt burden.
U.S. debt has increased to 100 percent of gross domestic product, while debt climbed 23.6 percent from 2008 to 2010, the credit-rating firm said in a statement today. Egan-Jones lowered the U.S. grade to AA+ in a July. Treasuries have gained 4.6 percent since the company first lowered the U.S. rating, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data.
The downgrade was based on “the increasing debt load coupled with the fact that there has been no tangible progress in addressing the country’s growing debt to GDP” ratio, Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones in Haverford, Pennsylvania, said today in a telephone interview. “Unfortunately, the debt is growing fairly rapidly while the GDP is not.”
Standard & Poor’s cut the U.S. grade by one step to AA+ on Aug. 5 and has a negative outlook on the country’s debt. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings assign the nation their top Aaa and AAA ratings respectively and also have negative outlooks.
More…
Given that prospect, more of the “quantitative easing” … should be a no-brainer. Yet the recently released minutes from a March 13 meeting show a Fed inclined to do nothing unless things take a turn for the worse.
So what’s going on? I think that Fed officials, whether they admit it to themselves or not, are feeling intimidated — and that American workers are paying the price for their timidity.
–Paul Krugman
Paul Krugman: Not Enough Inflation Friday, April 06, 2012
The unemployed need more help from the Fed:
Not Enough Inflation, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: A few days ago, Alan Greenspan … spoke out in defense of his successor. Attacks on Ben Bernanke by Republicans, he told The Financial Times, are “wholly inappropriate and destructive.” He’s right…
But why are the attacks on Mr. Bernanke so destructive? … The attackers want the Fed to slam on the brakes when it should be stepping on the gas… Fundamentally, the right wants the Fed to obsess over inflation, when the truth is that we’d be better off if the Fed paid … more attention to unemployment. …
O.K.,… let me take this in stages. First, about inflation obsession: For at least three years, right-wing economists, pundits and politicians have been warning that runaway inflation is just around the corner, and they keep being wrong. … At this point, inflation is … a bit below the Fed’s self-declared target of 2 percent.
Now, the Fed has, by law, a dual mandate: It’s supposed to be concerned with full employment as well as price stability. And while we more or less have price stability by the Fed’s definition, we’re nowhere near full employment. So this says that the Fed is doing too little, not too much. …
To be sure, more aggressive Fed policies to fight unemployment might lead to inflation above that 2 percent target. But remember that dual mandate: If the Fed refuses to take even the slightest risk on the inflation front, despite a disastrous performance on the employment front, it’s violating its own charter. And, beyond that,… a rise in inflation to 3 percent or even 4 percent … would almost surely help the economy. …
More…
My Dear Friends,
QE to infinity is as sure as death and taxes. The recovery in the US
economy is not going to reach any take off speed, but rather return for a
second recessionary experience post June of 2012.
QE 3 will surpass 1 and 2.
Gold will trade next between $1700 and $2111 before moving higher.
The Gold Cartel will abandon their shorts over the next three years,
having met their match in the marketplace .
Regards,
Jim
Jim
U.S. economy gains 120,000 jobs in March Less-than-expected increase is smallest since last fall By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
April 6, 2012, 10:31 a.m. EDT
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs in March, the smallest increase in five months, to break a recent string of strong employment gains, the government reported Friday.
The number of jobs created last month, seasonally adjusted, fell well below expectations and failed to top the 200,000 mark for the first time since November.
The March report also contained other signs of weakness. While the unemployment rate fell to 8.2%, the lowest level since January 2009, the decline occurred because more people dropped out of the labor force. It’s the first time that’s happened this year.
That’s usually a negative sign because it suggests jobs have become somewhat harder to find. Yet a raft of other economic data indicate that more companies plan to hire, so a decline in the labor force in March could be a temporary blip.
In another break with recent trends, job growth in prior months was not revised sharply higher. The economy added just 4,000 additional jobs in January and February than initially reported, according to the Labor Department’s revised figures.
The latest employment report interrupts a string of economic reports showing the U.S. on an upswing after several years of lackluster growth following the end of the 2008-2009 recession.
“The number was much weaker than expected, but does this represent a shift in the trend? That’s unclear,” said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays Capital.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes dropped 9 basis points to 2.095%, as investors sought the safety of government bonds. Yields move in the opposite direction to price.
The U.S. stock market was closed for Good Friday; U.S. stock futures fell sharply after the jobs data.
More…
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