"Your EBT Card Has Been Denied": 700,000 Are About To Lose Their Extended Jobless Claims Benefits
While
virtually everyone has opined on the topic of the massive fiscal
"cliff" set to take place on January 1, 2013, which could crush US GDP unless
American politicians manage to find a way to end their acrimonious
ways, most forget that a far more tangible cliff is set to take place
much sooner, specifically over the next several months, as those
currently collecting handouts from the government in the form of
extended unemployment benefits (i.e., those who have been out of a job
for a year) are about to get as angry as Germants pre-funding TARGET3,
once the free money stops. Goldman explains why: "First, more than
150,000 workers per month exhaust their allowed benefits. Second,
recently legislated thresholds will reduce benefit eligibility in many
states with below-average unemployment rates beginning in June. Third,
apart from legislative changes, labor market improvement in some states
has taken the state-level unemployment rate below eligibility
thresholds, with many states looking at likely expiration of one or more
tiers of benefits around mid-year." In other words, unlike the bulk of
other transfer payment programs (read government subsides) which could
be extended with the flick of a switch at the end of the year
following the now traditional 1+ month congressional theatrical
impasse, extended claims can not. The net result: by June some 700,000 people who are currently collecting benefits will lose everything.
It seems that the old faithful EBT card is about to be denied- and
while one can assume that extended benefits are not a core source of
marginal aspirational product (read AAPL) sales, we all know the truth.
Is the time finally coming to short the one company that is and has
always been the primary beneficiary of government transfer payment
largesse? Because if AAPL's recent shakiness has been, by some,
attributed to the expiration of EBTs, what will happen when Americans
are again forced to pay their mortgages?Why German Tempers Are Finally Boiling
Back in July of last year, before it was even remotely acknowledged (and in fact it was roundly denied) that Greece would set a debt haircut precedent, which despite all the rhetoric has merely given all the other PIIGS ideas about debt haircuts of their own (and how to achieve these as fast as possible), Zero Hedge was the first media outlet to cut to the truth, with "The Fatal Flaw In Europe's Second "Bazooka" Bailout: 82 Million Soon To Be Very Angry Germans, Or How Euro Bailout #2 Could Cost Up To 56% Of German GDP." Note we said "soon to be" because it was obvious that the modestly complicated math of Germany bearing the cost of keeping the Eurozone alive would take quite a while to trickle down to the common German man. We did, however, underestimate the Bundesbank's mathematically helping hand in the form of one chart, most recently observed here, which makes the math far clearer than anything we could ever do to explain: namely the exponentially grown Bundesbank TARGET 2 balance, which is essentially Germany's way to fund, via the ECB, account imbalances across the Eurozone (explained in gory detail here), and put the national economy on the hook in ever greater amounts to a sudden and disastrous collapse of the Eurozone, because should a fat tail even occur, a solid 25% of German GDP would be Corzined. Today, The Telegraph's AEP does a bring down on the current status of this one biggest wildcard for Europe's future: namely, German anger, or as he puts it "tempers" which it appears have finally begun to boil.Europe Is Now Red For The Year
A sea of red is flowing from European equity markets and it seems they are unable to stem the flow as IBEX (the Italian equity index) nears March 2009 lows (down 18% YTD)
but dispersion across European indices is very high from the DAX +14%
YTD to Italy, Greece, and Spain very much in the red YTD. However, for
the second week in a row, European equity markets (as tracked by the narrow Dow-equivalent Euro Stoxx 50) close with a negative return year-to-date -0.3%. The broader BE500 index is still up around 5% (compared to over 10% YTD gains in the S&P 500). European high yield credit is back at 3-month lows and investment grade credit at 2-month lows.
This week, however, followed the exact same path as last week with
equity and credit trading in a wide range but notably this week credit markets dramatically underperformed the ever-hopeful equity market with financials underperforming the heaviest. European sovereigns are generally wider close-to-close
on the week but just like corporate credit and equity, they generally
followed a similar path to last week with a broad range trade - though a
clear trend generally wider overall. Italy underperformed Spain on the week
and Portugal, as we noted earlier was the big winner on what looked
like basis trade-driven flows as opposed to whole new world of relief.
Ahead of the G-20 meetings, it did not seem like there was much hope in
sovereign credit - even as financials and corporates did lift a little
off their multi-month lows and having seen the headlines of the G-20
draft, it appears there is no magic bullet there anyway - no matter how
big they think their bazooka is. Today’s Items:
Well, the financial world is awash with
reports that the Spanish auctions went well; however, you can be assured
that the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve were active
players in monetizing Spain’s debt. With banking loans 170% of Spanish
GDP and private debts near 300% of Spanish GDP, there is no other
logical reason why any person, looking to make a decent return, would
invest in Spain.
As the media tries to spin this as good
news, jobless Claims at a revised 388,000 are higher than expected by
the so-called experts. Next week, this weeks figures will be revised
upward to over 390,000. Every week they have to revise the previous
weeks figures upward. Gee, I wonder why.
Next…
Americans On Hook For $291 Trillion in Derivatives
http://seekingalpha.com
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
http://www.investopedia.com
Americans On Hook For $291 Trillion in Derivatives
http://seekingalpha.com
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
http://www.investopedia.com
The national debt is reaching a mere $16
Trillion dollars and unfunded liabilities actually make that debt a
little under $119 Trillion; however thanks to bailing out the
too-big-to-fails and the backstop of the the FDIC… aka the taxpayer, the
gross notional, or leveraged positional, debt is $291 trillion. In
short, get out of paper folks.
Next…
Congress About To Pass Bill That Restricts Traveling, Driving and Banking
http://www.businessinsider.com
Congress About To Pass Bill That Restricts Traveling, Driving and Banking
http://www.businessinsider.com
Senator Barbara Boxer, from where else..
California, is spearheading a measure to bring the U.S. even closer to a
military police state. This human waste of skin wants to eliminate any
due process for American citizens suspected of tax violations. In
addition, there are provisions for the mandatory installation of Big
Brother boxes in all new cars, starting in 2015. Of course, we may not
have an economy, as many know it now, by 2015.
Smart state leaders, and this definitely leaves California out, can protect themselves from the financial collapse by…
1. Stop accepting federal funding.
2. Enforce 10th amendment nullification
3. Set up a state bank that use gold and silver coinage
4. Improve resources and local markets within the state.
1. Stop accepting federal funding.
2. Enforce 10th amendment nullification
3. Set up a state bank that use gold and silver coinage
4. Improve resources and local markets within the state.
Without making any announcement, the FBI
has ended critical intelligence sharing with all 77 law enforcement
fusion centers nationwide. These fusion centers relied on this
information and now the billions in taxpayer dollars used to build them
have been wasted. Does the FBI fears leaks, abuse of power, and/or
corruption? You decide.
Here are a few…
1. Poverty is absolutely exploding in California
2. The state government and municipalities are essentially broke.
3. California has some of the highest tax rates in The nation
4. There is an epidemic of crime and gang violence in California
As goes California, so goes the nation.
1. Poverty is absolutely exploding in California
2. The state government and municipalities are essentially broke.
3. California has some of the highest tax rates in The nation
4. There is an epidemic of crime and gang violence in California
As goes California, so goes the nation.
ed note...Our sponsors are a great place to start preparing...
When Will The Pain End?
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
Many investors are likely wondering when the pain of the D-wave
distribution will end in the gold and silver markets on yet another options
expiration in April. The invisible hand which provided the paper fuel for
the most recent decline has been reversing those positions into price
weakness. The steady increase in real silver and gold lease spreads toward
zero illustrates one aspect of this...
[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other
content, and more! ]]
Near the End of a Society or Civilization...
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 4 hours ago
Near the end of a society or civilization, they typically become very
corrupt. Either the government runs the businesses or the businesses run
the government. - *a famous quote from Dr. Faber*
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
We Have Had Economic Slowdowns Every 4 To 6 Years in America
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 5 hours ago
We’ve had economic slowdowns every four to six years in America, since the beginning of the Republic. So certainly by 2013 we’re due, if not before or later, but it is coming. And when it does, it’s going to be worse than the past. Related, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), United States Oil Fund ETF (USO)*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*
Want To Trade FX Like A Central Banker On Full Tilt? Apply Here
Tired of being stopped out by the latest HFT FX algo du jour?
Disappointed by having only 500x margin purchasing power? Disenchanted
by not having an infinite balance sheet, the inability to manipulate
markets (in currencies and commodities) at a whim, and worst of all,
having to account for risk in addition to return and
always fearing taxpayers may not bail you out after that 1000 pip move
against you? Most of all: wishing you were Mikael Charoze and finally being able to trade every asset class with the impunity of a central banker on full tilt? Then this is the opportunity for
you: for any wannabe real masters of the universe (sorry Goldman, you
are just so... 2009), now that only FX trading matters in the great
race to the devaluation bottom, please send your resume, together with
your cover letter why you should be picked over all the other sociopaths, and why you deserve
to make the decision what is in the best interest of billions of
people, to Sonya Zilka, head of talent management at the Bank of
International Settlement, aka the Central Banks' Central Bank. And best
of luck.Bet On Central Banker Lies, Double Your Money
From
mid-March, the difference in credit risk between banks that took LTRO
loans and banks that decided not to become stigmatized and subordinate
their existing senior unsecured bond holders has now more than doubled.
Another day of decompression today has pushed the so-called LTRO-Stigma to 142bps - its widest in 5 months and worse than at any time since LTRO1 was undertaken. Since we first noted the disingenuous commentary by Draghi
on 'there is no stigma' and suggested this trade on the back of the
early recognition of the implicit subordination and unintended
consequence of self-loading and self-referencing banks buying their own
sovereign debt locking them into a vicious circle with one another, the
spread has more than doubled (meaning anyone who TRS'd this deal
likely would have seen this spread doubling result in a doubling of P&L)
and reflects very closely the market's movements during the crisis
period heading into the announcement of the new fiscal compact and the
LTRO scheme. This time around, there is less collateral and a banking
sector that knows what it means to shake hands with the devil.Fab Five Fed-y: Which Fed Chairman Has Done The Best "Dual Mandate" Job?
While one can talk until one is blue in the face about the pros and cons of the current central bank's (mis)deeds over the past 7 years, the reality is that most people are backward-looking (i.e., economists), not forward (which of course explains the prevalence of speculation as to whether the Fed's exponentially rising balance sheet will result in hyperdeflation or hyperinflation). As such, one can, for now at least, judge the Fed merely in the context of what it has achieved to date, not by the seeds of destruction it has planted. So how has Ben Bernanke performed so far when compared to his previous 4 predecessors, at least based on those two now completely irrelevant, but still oddly believed mandates: inflation and unemployment (because by now we all know that even the Chairman himself admitted the only thing that matters to the Fed is the Russell 2000 closing value). Below we present the Fed's accomplishments in the arena of inflation and jobs in the context of the past 60 years split by Chairmen starting with Martin (remember the 1951 Accord?), then going to Burns/Miller, Volcker, Greenspan and finally Bernanke. So who has been the fabbest among the Fed-est? You decide.
Peak Gas Prices?
Wholesale gasoline futures are down around 8% from their late March peak.
This follows the late February peak in WTI crude prices. Joseph
Brusuelas of Bloomberg's Economics Brief today asks whether this signals
a peak in retail gas prices - which are up around 20% this year. In a
very similar seasonal and monetary cycle manner to last year, energy
prices are rolling over but will retail follow again this time as it did
before. For sure this would provide direct releif to households, as
Brusuelas notes, that have seen average hourly earnings decline for 13
consecutive months. The typical lag is 2-4 weeks before wholesale improvements start showing up in retail prices and while we wait with baited breath for that spending relief, we note that at the same time, the average
price of gasoline in Europe just broke back above $10 per gallon
(equivalent) to its highest in almost a year showing no signs of
retracing at all.Spanish 10 Year Briefly Crosses 6.00% And Portugal Active
European
sovereigns peaked in spread yield early this morning before the
surprisingly positive German confidence data but while France, Belgium,
Austria and more significantly Portugal are all improving, Spain and
Italy remain far less positive in this small downtrend after two days
of significant selling pressure. Both are now around 35bps post the US non-farm-payroll data with Spain cracking back above 6% yield (and remains above 500bps in 5Y CDS). For those wondering what is going on in Portuguese spreads, it appears CDS-Cash basis traders are very active,
according to desk chatter, with the spread between extremely 'cheap'
bonds and CDS compressing to 7 month narrows here - bonds remain 232bps
wide of CDS though as liquidity, ECB subordination, and CDS trigger
concerns remain (though this is in from over 700bps difference at its
worst in late January 2012).The War For The BOJ's Balance Sheet Gets Real
Over the past month, the world has finally awakened to the reality that when it comes to easing, there is more than just one central bank (i.e., the Fed). in fact, as we have been showing since early this year, the bulk of the easing over the past 5 months has happened elsewhere, primarily in Europe with LTRO 1+2, and subsequently at the BOE, and more recently at India and Brazil. Yet some holdouts still remain. One of these naturally is China, which everyone would love to see cut RRR or even the benchmark rate, yet which as recent CPI data has shown still has lingering packets of inflation precisely where it hurts: food (and of course recall China's Schrodinger economy). Which leaves Japan, which already eased more a few months back when it expanded its LSAP program... but it is never enough. Needless to say strategists, in their quest to shake any and every central banker here or there for some free money, have been seeing imminent BOJ easing in the form of yet another Y5 trillion LSAP any second now. Yet it is one thing for bankers to do what they are programmed to do, which is demand more free money, it is something very different when politicians step in and defuse the myth that any central bank is even remotely independent, especially when reelection is at stake. As Bloomberg points out this morning, the fight for the BOJ's "independent" balance sheet is starting to get lethal.
Oui Monsieur La Difference
In all of the polls for the last six months the socialist, Francois Hollande, is ahead in the run-off election between 6 and 16 points. The first bout is April 22 and the Concours d’Elegance is May 6. Now no one that is not French can understand the French well. The psychology of this nation is singular. What Mr. Hollande’s win will mean for France is something to be carefully considered. A tax rate on the wealthy at 75%, renegotiate the EU fiscal pact, raise the minimum wage, impose more governmental spending, a decrease in the retirement age and a hostility directed at the banks and other financial institutions that may be described as combative or perhaps virulent and a complete change in attitude and direction from Napoleon’s strutting reincarnation also known as Sarkozy. Furthermore, no one is paying particular attention to the announcement of an upcoming EU meeting to propose reintroduction of border controls between France and Germany but it is a clear sign of Federalism on the wane and of Nationalism coming to the fore.Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: April 20
Japanese Finance Minister said an IMF funding increase to USD 400bln is "coming into sight", and that he expects the BRIC nations to offer funds to the IMF at the appropriate time. The finance minister sees funding figures to be released as early as tomorrow. (Sources) The IMF looks set to reach or pass that target, with USD 320bln secured yesterday and many of the largest emerging economies still to contribute. ECB’s Knot and EU’s Rehn have said IMF commitments may have to be up to USD 500bln, and expects China to boost resources. Brazil’s finance minister has said his country is still not ready to give numbers on their IMF contribution. The Indian finance minister has said he will take time to provide an answer to the funding question for the IMF. China also remains undecided on an increased IMF contribution.Frontrunning: April 20
- Current account surplus recycling goes global: BRICS demand bigger IMF role before giving it cash (Reuters)
- Obama oil margin plan could increase price swings (Reuters)
- Britons Abandoning Pensions Amid ‘Outdated’ Rules (Bloomberg)
- Hedge-Fund Assets Rise to Record Level (WSJ)
- Way to restore confidence: SEC considers case against Egan-Jones (FT)
- Qatari wealth fund adds 5% Tiffany stake (FT)
- "Do we file?" Dewey Pitches Plan for Rescue (WSJ)
- French president slips further behind Socialist challenger Hollande (ANI)
- Nine U.S. Banks Said to be Examined on Overdraft Fees (Bloomberg)
- Capital Rotation: Investors fret on emerging markets and look to U.S. (Reuters)
- Verizon's Answer to iPhone: Windows (WSJ)
by Mike Adams, Natural News:
(NaturalNews) You can tell a lot about a person by assessing what they
purchase. It’s called “consumer profiling,” and corporations do it all
the time. That’s how those grocery store loyalty discount programs work,
by the way — they profile your psychology by analyzing what you’re
buying. From that information, they can target you for coupons, mailers
and other marketing campaigns that “magically” speak to your particular
interests. It’s not magic, of course; it’s just behavioral profiling.
So what happens if we profile the purchasing behavior of the U.S. government? What do we find? Bullets, bullet-proof roadside checkpoint booths, and anti-radiation pills.
450 million rounds of hollow points to be used against the American people
Just a few weeks ago, the federal government initiated a contract for acquiring 450 million rounds of .40 caliber ammunition. “The special hollow point effectively passes through a variety of barriers and holds its jacket in the toughest conditions,” says a press release from the award winner, ammunition manufacturer ATK.
Read More @ NaturalNews.com
(NaturalNews) You can tell a lot about a person by assessing what they
purchase. It’s called “consumer profiling,” and corporations do it all
the time. That’s how those grocery store loyalty discount programs work,
by the way — they profile your psychology by analyzing what you’re
buying. From that information, they can target you for coupons, mailers
and other marketing campaigns that “magically” speak to your particular
interests. It’s not magic, of course; it’s just behavioral profiling.So what happens if we profile the purchasing behavior of the U.S. government? What do we find? Bullets, bullet-proof roadside checkpoint booths, and anti-radiation pills.
450 million rounds of hollow points to be used against the American people
Just a few weeks ago, the federal government initiated a contract for acquiring 450 million rounds of .40 caliber ammunition. “The special hollow point effectively passes through a variety of barriers and holds its jacket in the toughest conditions,” says a press release from the award winner, ammunition manufacturer ATK.
Read More @ NaturalNews.com
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