Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Gundlach Explains Biflation For The Cheap Seats

Appropos Bernanke's razor's-edge tight-rope-walk fence-sitting as the not-too-cold-not-too-hot economy reduces the Fed's ability to do anything, Jeff Gundlach of Double Line provided a succinct explanation of the the 'uncomfortable position' the place-of-confusion Fed finds itself in. Simplifying the dilemma to: the Fed cannot raise rates as the dramatic implications for the huge debt load (and implictly the interest expense saving the budget deficit) of the US Government are untenable while at the same time inflation (in the things we need - not just want) is rising notably. However the new bond-king notes rather sarcastically, that the Fed can show that there is only modest inflation thanks to housing and wage growth (and herelies 'the biflation'). The old-school-Fed's efforts at pre-emptive strikes against inflation is simply not going to happen, he states, citing an "intentional attempt to suppress national income - an attempt to stop nominal GDP growing too much - simply won't be tolerated until inflation moves into the 4-5% category".





5 New Lies That The Federal Reserve Is Telling The American People

from The Economic Collapse Blog:

The Federal Reserve says that everything is going to be okay.  The Fed says that unemployment is going to go down, inflation is going to remain low and economic growth is going to steadily increase.  Do you believe them this time?  As you will see later in this article, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has been dead wrong about the economy over and over again.  But the mainstream media and many Americans still seem to have a lot of faith in the Federal Reserve.  It doesn't seem to matter that Bernanke and other Fed officials have been telling the American people lies for years.
Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com


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Apple For Dummies

Since last night's blockbuster earnings by Apple presented yet another "paradigm shift" in how the company is presented to potential new investors (how many are left one wonders); namely, no longer reliant on incremental US purchases - just to avoid the thorny issue of wireless company subsidization - and one now dependent on Chinese consumer demand for future growth, we thought, in conjunction with William Banzai, to present a graphic simplification of what the Apple business model is all about going forward. Two words: "value added"





Shorts Now Trapped & Gold Could Gap Up to $3,000

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 4 hours ago
Jim Sinclair, Must Listen 4/24/12 Kingworldnews.com Interview: Shorts Now Trapped & Gold Could Gap Up to $3,000 ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations.Thank... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] more »

 

 

UK GDP contracts into negative territory/FOMC statement remains the same/Failed German bund auction/

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed today down by $1.60. Silver fell by 39 cents to $30.35.  However in the access market both metals rose.  Here are the closing access market prices: gold:  1644.60 silver:  $30.72 The precious metals were bombed seconds after the release of the FOMC announcement in which nothing new was suggested by the FEDS. The announcement was really quite tame. more »

 

 

Mexico Raised Gold Reserves in March, IMF Data Shows

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 8 hours ago
Mexico and Russia announced an increase in their gold reserves in March. China will tell us they've been buying when they want us to know. Headline: Mexico Raised Gold Reserves in March, IMF Data Shows Mexico added 16.8 metric tons of gold valued at about $906.4 million to its reserves in March as nations including Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan increased their holdings of the metal,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] more »

 

 

Mailbox

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 10 hours ago
Eric: Good morning to you. If I read this morning’s chart and commentary correctly, it looks like we are now at the point where we can expect cash flow begin to leave large cap stocks and flow into gold mining stocks for the balance of this move into 2015, and to do so at an accelerating rate as from 1976 – 1981. I hope that the current downtrend line drawn on... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] more »

 

 

Gold drops sharply after Fed stands pat

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 11 hours ago

Did you actually expect headlines to say Gold rose sharply after Fed stands pat? Breaking headline news and/or leading market opinions tend to be more misdirection than not. Headline: Gold drops sharply after Fed stands pat SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures added to losses Wednesday as the U.S. Federal Reserve stood pat on interest rates and the accompanying statement... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]




SchizoFEDia

On the whole, Goldman viewed today's FOMC meeting as moderately more hawkish than expected. The post-meeting statement was close to their expectations but a few changes added a more upbeat tone. Fed officials revised up their forecast for core inflation and down their forecasts for unemployment, in both cases by larger amounts than many had expected. Likely as a result, some participants also lifted their forecasts for the federal funds rate. The updated funds rate forecasts now contrast even more starkly with the “exceptionally low …at least through late 2014” guidance in the statement. Bernanke’s press conference was more neutral for the outlook than the statement and the updated SEP. On one hand, he defended a question about the Fed’s current policy stance by arguing that the committee was not willing to tolerate materially higher inflation. On the other hand, his comments on the policy options were tilted toward further easing. SchizoFEDia indeed.








Peak Housing, Peak Fraud, Peak Suburbia And Peak Property Taxes

Once again pundits are claiming that housing is "finally recovering." But they're overlooking three peaks: Peak Housing, Peak Financial Fraud, and Peak Suburbia, all of which suggest years of stagnation and decline, not "recovery." Once the belief that housing is the bedrock of middle class wealth fades, so too will the motivation to risk homeownership in an economy that puts a premium on mobility and frequent changes of careers and jobs. Only one aspect of housing hasn't yet peaked: property taxes. If the risks of homeownership weren't apparent before, they certainly are now as local governments jack up property taxes to indenture homeowners into tax donkeys.




Doug Casey On Taxes And Freedom

The always-outspoken Doug Casey addresses a broader view of taxation and its costs to both individuals and society in general in this interview with Louis James. The Taxman can and will come for you, no matter how great or small the amount of tax he expects to extract from you. The IRS can impound your assets, take your computers, freeze your accounts, and make life just about impossible for you, while you struggle to defend yourself against their claims and keep the rest of your life going. But people should not just bow down and lick the boots of our masters. They can and should do everything they can to pay as little in taxes as possible. This is an ethical imperative; we must starve the beast.




A Spinning Blankfein Responds If Goldman Is Still A Vampire Squid

It seems the PR machine was in full swing today for everyone's favorite Muppet-slayer-in-chief as Goldman Sachs' Lloyd Blankfein did the business media tour. Bloomberg TV, in the clip below, were perhaps toughest on the domed demi-god as they pressed him on the public's perspective of his firm as the 'vampire squid' to which he responded in glib-yet-deferential terms that "it is hyperbole and we'll have to do a better job of explaining how important this industry is". Indeed Lloyd, indeed. A grand collection of ducking-and-weaving as Erik Schatzker peppered the CEO with questions on his changing priorities as a CEO (wealth creation for partners clients), conflicts of interest ("if you want to rule out conflicts of interest, you'll just give advice to one client in one industry and never do any lending or support for the capital structure of the firm.  It's just not feasible."), on Arthur Levitt's statement of Goldman's hypocrisy (as a market-maker we have to protect Goldman Sachs), being too big to fail, the markets and economy (tend to be a little more positive than what I am hearing from other people), and finally the Facebook IPO.




There Goes Greek GDP: Nazional Lampoons Greek Vacation Just Got Cancelled

As if the Greeks haven't suffered enough from Northern European actions (admittedly in response to their own actions), it seems the anti-German sentiment is keeping the wealthy tourists away from the beaches. As Reuters notes today, 'German tourists are in short supply in Greece these days, frightened away by reports of visceral anti-German sentiment in some places'.  Data for the main summer holiday season shows pre-bookings from Germany down by some 30 percent. We guess the pictures of Molotov cocktails being thrown, city-wide strikes, and cardboard cities full of unemployed youths was too much but as one Greek tourist-shop-owner clarified "They're not coming because of the problems. But we don't have a problem with German people, only their government." Tourism - the one remaining possibility for Greece to drag themselves out of the quagmire (aside from olive oil and yoghurt) - is now under pressure as The Germans ("That's just the way Germans are: if there's trouble in some country, then Germans just don't go there on their holidays.") wage "an economic war against Greece". Sadly the xenophobic and nationalist tensions are indeed rising (as we warned many times in the past - and suggest will be the ultimate undoing of the political compact in Europe) as the crisis had revived anti-German sentiment from World War Two that most thought had long since disappeared. "The Greeks moved on and tried to forget, then this. If you ask me, Germany owes Greece billions for all the murders and war crimes. Germany should pay Greece what it owes."




NASDAAPL Explodes Most In 4 Months As Volatility Implodes

A 2.7% gain in the NASDAQ, obviously dramatically aided and abetted by the squeeze-fest in AAPL +9% from last night's close, was the best gain in over four months for the tech-heavy index but still leaves it lagging the Dow (by over 2%) and S&P 500 (by over 1.5%) from the 4/9 highs in Apple. At the other end of the spectrum in the real economy, CAT's less than rosy outlook, saw it suffer its largest drop in 7 months dragging an impressive 37pts out of the Dow's lagging but positive performance on the day (now positive from the 4/9 Apple Top day). Of course the Apple-exuberance which seemed enough for the entire world's risk-asset markets to decide that everything is fixed started the day off gap higher in the US and late-to-the-game retail pushed equities higher out of the date this morning as the rest of risk-assets were generally steady. Europe's close seemed to have only minimal impact as everyone was focused on the FOMC statement and Bernanke's presser. Between the FOMC and the Bernanke conference, Gold, stocks, and the USD knee-jerked and retraced but Treasuries remained worse (higher in yield by 3bps or so). Once Bernanke began his quaking tenor, Gold pushed higher, Treasuries lower, stocks higher and the USD lower as hints of QE back on the table were dribbled in between defensive tacks on biflationary concerns. This QE-specific action was accompanied by low volumes though (as usual) but volatility did compress (a la typical QE trades) with VIX closing below 17% - its lowest in over a month and near its largest divergence from European volatility (V2X). Commodities in general lagged early then recovered as USD sold off on QE chatter from Ben - Silver underperformed on the day but outperformed notably off its lows after testing below $30 for the first time in 3 months. Treasuries pulled back positively off their high yields of the day in the late afternoon ending the week with the short-end (out to 5Y) flat and 10s/30s 2.5bps higher in yield. HYG was a dramatic high-beta outperformer today - now green for the month - even as HY and IG credit lagged the ebullience in stocks (though did improve to two-week highs). ES (the S&P 500 e-mini future) closed above its 50DMA on average volume today with some heavy and larger average trade size into the close ending just above Friday's highs - even after the dismal US data (Durable Goods) and Europe's issues this morning.




Will Bond Investors And Savers Have To Hold Forced Government Loans At Some Point In The Future?

If central planners decide to circumvent the already manipulated bond market and enforce much lower interest rates by implementing forced loans, there would be a big uproar for some time in the market. However, the negative wealth effect on the private sector would be more foreseeable and stretched out over a longer period of time. This definitely would decrease uncertainty. In my opinion, this measure would actually help to break through the downward spiral and avoid the much more devastating course towards a restructuring event with its negative side effects.




BREAKING: Bank of America Targets US Firearms and 2nd Amendment – Kelly McMillan

by SGT:

McMillan International Group and SGTreport have a lot in common. They make guns. SGTreport writes and reports the real news. And Bank of America is a fan of neither. Last year SGTreport.com was the target of a series of vicious attacks from IP addresses all linking back to the fractional reserve banking giant, here’s the proof. And now, McMillan Group International has been told by Bank of America that it needs to “carefully assess the risks of doing business with a firearms manufacturer” and apparently a law-abiding U.S. weapons manufacturer who builds their firearms in the United States doesn’t cut the mustard. Here’s my interview with the Director of Operations for McMillan International Group, Kelly McMillan.





Another Bait and Switch? Obama Opposes CISPA. Yeah, Right

from TheAlexJonesChannel:


Read More…




Is Gold Still Cheap?

from Got Gold Report:
We addressed the above question last year and arrived at the answer: no, gold left bargain territory long ago. We remain bullish on gold not because we think gold is still cheap, but because we expect it to get a lot more expensive.
This isn’t a “greater fool” game that we are playing, in that our belief that gold will become a lot more expensive over the years ahead isn’t based on the expectation that people will be silly enough to pay a much higher valuation in the future for an asset that is already over-valued today. It is, instead, a position based on the observation that the world’s most important central banks and governments remain committed to a course that ends in catastrophe for their economies and currencies. To put it another way, gold may well be expensive relative to the current economic backdrop, but it is cheap relative to what the economic backdrop will be 5 years from now if the current policy course is maintained.
Read More @ 321gold.com




FIGHTING AGENDA 21: Michigan Swine Farmer Calls for Resignation of DNR Officials and Others

by Liz Klimas, The Blaze:

Farmer Mark Baker was on Doc Thompson‘s radio show today and he has a message he hopes will shake those in Michigan’s state capital. It is: “We’re not letting up. We’re not letting our family farms go.”
If you’re wondering what Baker, who runs the farm Bakers Green Acres in Michigan, is referring to, he’s talking with Thompson – a man whose voice you may recognize as a fill-in for Glenn Beck at times – about the recent enactment of the “feral swine” ban within the state. As of April 1, those in Michigan raising certain species of pigs deemed non-native for meat or for sport hunting were required to have disposed of their livestock, according to the Invasive Species Order passed in 2010.
On the show, Baker calls for Michigan Department of Natural Resources and the Environment officials to resign and also for the Invasive Species Order to be canceled. He says, “I want it done by the end of the week.”
Read More @ Theblaze.com




Gold Will Win Money War

by Greg Hunter, USAWatchdog:

It was recently reported that countries like China and India are going to buy Iranian oil with gold.  Jim Sinclair of JSMineset.com said this week, “The implications of China paying for Iranian oil in gold is the most important event in the modern history of gold.”  He also said that gold could go to “$3,000 per ounce” as nations around the world revert back to gold as the only form of payment “free of liability.” 
WORLDWIDE OBJECTION
The major players of the world have three major complaints on USDollar management:
1)    unilateral decisions to conduct debt monetization by the USFed (debased)
2)    bond fraud centered on mortgage securities, exported globally (cancer)
3)    endless war with ulterior motives too numerous to specify (aggression).
Read More @ USAWatchdog.com




India Demand for Gold ETFs Rises on Festival

from WSJ The Wall Street Journal:

The trade value of gold ETFs, or paper gold, on India’s National Stock Exchange rose to 6.08 billion rupees ($115.8 million) from 4.23 billion rupees a year earlier, while the total number of units traded on the bourse grew 10% to 2.2 million.
Though sales of gold in physical form, such as jewelry, coins or bullion bars, account for more than 90% of the business in the world’s largest consumer, the jump in ETF trade marks a shift in buying patterns.
Gold ETFs were first launched in India in early 2007.
“The young generation now prefers to invest online rather than go to jewelers, which is increasing the demand for paper gold,” said Harish Galipelli, head of research at commodity brokerage firm JRG Wealth Management.
Read More @ WSJ.com




Will Silver and Platinum Outperform Gold In The Near Future?

from ETFDailyNews.com:

Przemyslaw Radomski: The New York Times reported on a growing phenomenon in Europe:“suicide by economic crisis.” Apparently people are taking their own lives in despair over unemployment and economic failure. Paul Krugman in his column in the New York Times wonders if it isn’t the case that European leaders are committing economic suicide for the Continent as a whole.

In this chart, we see a major support line in play and the suggestion is that a move to the upside here is very likely. The chart tells us that silver is likely to outperform gold in the months ahead, though not necessarily immediately.
Read More @ ETFDailyNews.com




Golden Dreams & Global Nightmares

by Alex Stanczyk, SilverBearCafe.com:

“Paper money has had the effect in your state that it will ever have – to ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice.” – George Washington
BRICS Sidestep U.S. Dollar Completely and Choose Chinese Currency for Trade Settlement
In a historic move, Brazil, Russia, India, and China have conducted negotiations to utilize the RMB for settlement of international trade. South Africa has joined this group and is expected to endorse Chinese currency as the currency of trade for these emerging markets. World Bank President Robert Zoellick has been noted as supporting a “BRICS Bank.” To put into perspective why this is important, developing nations now contribute almost 50% of new global economic growth and account for roughly 25% of global GDP.
In the meantime, China continues to position its currency as a viable alternate to the USD for settlement of international trade.
Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com




Is the Tea Party Waning?

from The Daily Bell:
The political class first sat up and paid real attention to the tea-party movement two years ago, when its acolytes in Utah ended the career of Bob Bennett, a venerable Republican senator, by denying him the party’s nomination for his re- election bid. If Bob Bennett is not conservative enough, incredulous congressmen asked, who is? One person assumed to have dwelt long and hard on that question is the other, even more venerable Republican senator from Utah, Orrin Hatch, who has been in office since 1977. – The Economist
Dominant Social Theme: It’s over now. Let business-as-usual begin.
Free-Market Analysis: This article from the Economist – a full-fledged mainstream mouthpiece – predicts, hopefully, the demise of the Tea Party movement in the US.
But those who run the Economist and hope for world government should be careful of what they wish for. The Tea Party movement was born of frustration with the current system and the idea that it is subsiding is probably a bit off the mark.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com




Obama Mandates Facebook for Government Access

If You have Nothing to Hide, You Have Nothing to Fear
from Roger Strukhoff:
The Obama Administration has directed several government agencies to require the use of Facebook sign-on for all online services, effective immediately. The directive covers the Social Security Administration, Veteran’s Administration, and the Department of the Treasury, among others.
“Facebook is the most successful social network ever created, and an American-grown institution,” said White House spokesperson Avrile Powason. “It’s a perfect fit for accessing government services in the 21st century.” Powason estimated that the use of Facebook as the exclusive government sign-on method “will save the agencies an estimated $1.3 billion annually while creating thousands of jobs in the private sector.”
Read More @ RogerStrukhoff.sys-con.com




So Long, US Dollar

by Marin Katusa, Casey Research:

Signs the Dollar Is Going the Way of the Dodo
The biggest oil-trading partners in the world, China and Saudi Arabia, are still using the petrodollar in their transactions. How long this will persist is a very important question. China imported 1.4 million barrels of oil a day from Saudi Arabia in February, a 39% increase from a year earlier, and the two countries have teamed up to build a massive oil refinery in Saudi Arabia. As the nations continue to pursue increased bilateral trade, at some point they will decide that involving US dollars in every transaction is unnecessary and expensive, and they will ditch the dollar.
When that happens, the tide will have truly turned against the dollar, as it was an agreement between President Nixon and King Faisal of Saudi Arabia in 1973 that originally created the petrodollar system. Nixon asked Faisal to accept only US dollars as payment for oil and to invest any excess profits in US Treasury bonds, notes, and bills. In exchange, Nixon pledged to protect Saudi oilfields from the Soviet Union and other potential aggressors, such as Iran and Iraq.
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com




The United States Has Plenty Of Oil: 10 Facts About America’s Energy Resources That Will Blow Your Mind

from The American Dream:
The United States is not running out of oil. In fact, nobody on the entire globe has more energy resources than the United States does. The truth is that we are absolutely swimming in oil and natural gas and we have so much coal that we have no idea what to do with it all. At current consumption rates, America has enough energy resources to completely satisfy all of its needs well into the 22nd century. If we would just access those resources, we would not have to import a single drop of foreign oil. But most Americans don’t realize that we have plenty of oil. In fact, our education system has brainwashed most Americans into believing that our energy resources are rapidly being depleted and that we will soon enter a great energy crisis. We are all constantly told that we must transition to “green energy” before it is too late. But the reality is that America is an energy rich nation and new discoveries of oil and natural gas deposits are being made all the time. Shouldn’t someone tell the American people the truth about these things?
Read More @ EndOfTheAmericanDream.com




Well, THAT Was Interesting

from TF Metals Report:
What a day, huh? First we saw some May silver call-sellers get squeezed. Then, the FOMC statement caused a sharp selloff. Unfortunately for The Cartel, no waterfall ensued as price quickly rebounded. We now look to be on the verge of a rally. Let’s get started!
I know that many folks come here only to read my blogs or to visit Pailin’s Corner. In doing so, many miss out on the terrific information that is shared in the comments. Rather than re-type my thoughts from earlier, here are some C&Ps of my comments from the previous thread:
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on April 25, 2012 – 10:46am.
If anyone is willing to gamble in the casino, now would be the time. This reeks of a screwing of put sellers ahead of option expiry. The final beatdown before the reversal.

Read More @ TF Metals Report.com




The Great Western Revenue Crisis, Part II

by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls Canada:
In Part I it was necessary to spend most of my time/energy dispelling the fiction from the mainstream media that the debt-crisis afflicting most major Western economies is due to government over-spending. As I demonstrated with a combination of unequivocal charts, clear logic, and simple arithmetic; the U.S. economy is clearly in the grip of the worst revenue crisis in its entire history.
In Part II, I will explain why we can safely conclude that other Western nations are also facing a revenue crisis rather than their insolvency being due to excessive spending; and then along with that I will describe how this collective revenue crisis has emerged across the West.
To begin with, readers must understand that economies are dynamic entities, constantly evolving in response to the policies bestowed/inflicted upon them. This means that only dynamic analysis (i.e. analysis which accounts for change) can ever yield useful conclusions and policies.
Read More @ BullionBullsCanada.com




Possible imminent Eurozone collapse a game-changer for gold

by Ross Norman, MineWeb.com

Gold is currently in a protracted period of consolidation and expecting a break-out but it is unclear in which direction! Down to $1,525 or up to $2,000 + – or maybe first one then the other. Interesting times!
In the year that we commemorate the loss of Titanic, it is worth reflecting the crucial role of lifeboats in a crisis. Gold is a particularly small market and were you to liquidate an entire year’s gold mine production at current market prices, it would have a market cap of less than Vodafone – yet it is compared along with such investment mammoths as the US dollar, the FTSE 100 and the DJIA. Gold still represents less than one per cent of total assets under management (AUM) and to rise to the levels of the 1980′s (or by 2% of global financial AUM) would require the creation of 85,000 tonnes of new investment demand or 30 years of mine production.
Read More @ MineWeb.com





The Bernank is Concerned…Very Concerned

by Michael Krieger, Liberty Blitzkrieg

We may be at a significant inflection point for the metals.  Gold has had every reason to completely break down and crater if we were in what some people mistakenly claim to be a “bubble” (fiat money’s purchasing power is the real bubble).  The Chinese economy has crashed pretty hard, India’s economy is a mess and their gold market was closed for an extended period recently due to a proposed doubling in the tax and supposedly QE is off the table.  Well if all these key bullish factors went away why hasn’t the so called bubble popped? 

Read More @ LibertyBlitzkrieg.com




Fleckenstein – Fed Idiots Wrong, Big Problems in Europe & US

from KingWorldNews:

On the heels of the release of the Fed statement and the Bernanke press conference, today King World News interviewed Bill Fleckenstein, President of Fleckenstein Capital, to get his take on the situation.  Fleckenstein told KWN the economy will roll over, Europe will go into the abyss and the Fed will be forced to ease.  He also described the Fed as “idiots” and said they are completely wrong about what they are saying:  “Let’s take a step back for a second.  Who are these people?  They’re the same idiots that never saw anything coming.  So whatever they think they see or whatever they want to talk about is meaningless because they are probably wrong about what they think.”

Fleckenstein Continues @ KingWorldNews



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