Tuesday, April 24, 2012

ESM Will Supply Whatever Money Is Needed In Euroland


My Dear Extended Family,
The European Stabilization Mechanism Treaty due to pass in July this year will take care of whatever money is required by Spain or any other Euroland nations for effective bailout. It starts with $700 billion in capitalization and has an open call for additional capital infusion with no limit placed on these calls and no further agreements required.
New additional capitalization called on by this treaty is mandatory, not elective and therefore will go to infinity.
The member nations have 7 days to pay up when ordered to by the management of the EMS who are protected against any form of attack or litigation to legislation. It will be backed by the US Fed via swaps while the US publicly denies it is adding any capital to the IMF or this new entity, ESM.
It is the mechanism for QE to infinity in Europe.
QE to infinity, properly understood, is debt monetization on steroids. Denials will be legion, but this debt monetization on steroids will not and cannot be avoided.
The advent of the ESM Treaty establishing the European Stabilization Mechanism is economically Earth shaking and recognized by almost no one out there. It cannot be otherwise, it cannot be avoided. It can de denied but it will occur.
Respectfully,
Jim

Cost of Spain’s Housing Bust Could Force a Bailout By LANDON THOMAS Jr. and RAPHAEL MINDER
Published: April 24, 2012

By any measure, the Spanish real estate boom was one of the headiest ever. Spurred by record-low interest rates, Spaniards piled into holiday villas along the Costa Brava, gaudy apartments in Madrid and millions of starter homes throughout the country.
Marta Afuera Pons is juggling two mortgages — one on her house, another on an investment property that went sour — and is about 350,000 euros in debt. She is trying to persuade her lender, the savings banks BMN, to take back the mortgage and the property.
But since the frenzy drove Spanish home prices to a peak in 2007, they have fallen by at least one-fourth, and the bottom seems nowhere in sight. As Spain endures its second recession in three years and unemployment nears 25 percent, an increasing number of debt-heavy Spaniards can no longer meet monthly payments on the mortgages that their banks were all too eager to give.
With a rising portion of Spain’s 663 billion euros, or $876 billion, in home mortgages at risk of default, many economists say it is only a matter of time before some of Spain’s biggest banks will need a bailout. And the Spanish government, staggering under its own debt and budget deficit burdens, may not have the money to come to the rescue.
The implications of all this for the rest of Europe were a prime topic at last weekend’s meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington. The big fear is that the European Union will need to step in with a Spanish bailout — one much bigger than any of those already extended to Ireland, Greece and Portugal.
“Retail mortgages are set to become the Achilles’ heel of the Spanish banking system,” said Edward Hugh, a Barcelona-based economist and blogger who has closely studied the issue.
Two years ago, when Ireland’s banks succumbed to a real estate bust, the Irish government’s rescue effort eventually forced it to take 80 billion euros from the European Union and I.M.F. Analysts say that a similar rescue for Spain would cost at least 200 billion euros, or $264 billion — nearly double the 110 billion euros given to Greece, whose debt travails had long raised the question of which European economy might be next to require a rescue.
Last week, the Spanish central bank reported that the nation’s nonperforming loans had hit the highest level since 1994. And while the government’s official estimate of mortgages going unpaid is only 3 percent, Mr. Hugh and other economists say the actual numbers are probably much higher — in double digits for some lenders.
The real estate boom, while it lasted, gave Spain the world’s highest rate of homeownership — with more than 8 of every 10 Spanish households owning the places they lived. But lenders are now depending on people like Marta Afuera Pons, who is juggling two mortgages — one on her house, another on an investment property that went sour — and is about 350,000 euros in debt.
In late 2010, Ms. Afuera Pons, who had just lost her job as a social security administrator, stopped making payments on the mortgage of 132,000 euros that she and the man she lived with had taken out for their home in Tordera, near Barcelona.
Separately, they still owe 185,000 euros to the same bank after receiving further financing in 2007 to buy a house that was never built, because the developer went bankrupt a year later.
Like many Spaniards, Ms. Afuera Pons is hitting the two-year limit for receiving unemployment benefits. This month, she will receive her last 1,100-euro unemployment check.
Finding no buyers for her Tordera house, Ms. Afuera Pons says she is trying to persuade her lender, the savings banks BMN, to take back the mortgage and the property. She would then probably move in with her mother, because her partner left last summer for Brazil and is now married there.
Ms. Afuera Pons says she accepts blame for her financial disaster but considers her lender, BMN, the enabler. She has joined an association of mortgage holders that has been staging demonstrations to demand relief.
“It’s now easy to say that wanting this new house was a risky investment, but the bank fully supported this idea,” she said. “Everybody lost any sense of caution, starting with the banks.”
BMN said it would not comment on Ms. Afuera Pons’s specific case. But a spokesman, Miguel Portilla, said that the bank’s policy was “always to try to find every way possible to avoid throwing people out of their home and on to the street.”
Real estate experts in Spain estimated that about 300,000 properties have been repossessed since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007. Unwilling to take losses, banks have mainly held onto these homes. But now, facing pressure to raise more capital, banks are rushing to unload them, offering discounts of up to 60 percent.
Many investors also see a warning signal in the deteriorating performance of Spain’s 100 billion euro mortgage-backed securities market.
More…

In The News Today

April 24, 2012, at 10:10 am
by
During times of universal deceit, truth becomes a revolutionary act. –George Orwell


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is a map of where drones are now authorized to fly in the USA. Are you on it?
When outdoors in these areas always look down so as not to have your face photographed by Big Brother. He is now protecting us all 24/7.
Please watch the movie "Enemy of the State" with Denzel Washington, if you have not already  
Click here to see the full map…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE to infinity, which is debt monetization on steroids, cannot be avoided.

US home prices drop for 6th straight month
Home prices fall in most US cities for sixth straight month, as housing struggles to recover
By Christopher s. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) — Home prices dropped in February in most major U.S. cities for a sixth straight month, a sign that modest sales gains haven’t been enough to boost prices.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index shows that prices dropped in February from January in 16 of the 20 cities it tracks.
The steepest declines were in Atlanta, Chicago and Cleveland. Prices rose in Phoenix, San Diego and Miami. They were unchanged in Dallas.
The declines partly reflect typical offseason sales. The month-to-month prices aren’t adjusted for seasonal factors.
Still, prices fell in 15 of the 20 cities in February compared with the same month in 2011. That indicates that the housing market remains far from healthy despite the best winter for sales in five years.
The steady price declines have brought the nationwide index to its late 2002 level. Home prices have fallen 35 percent since the housing bust.
Prices in nine cities fell to their lowest levels since the housing bust. The average price in Atlanta fell 17.3 percent in February compared with a year earlier. That’s the biggest annual drop in the history of the index for any city.
More…

 

Jim’s Mailbox


Hi Jim,
As you said, QE to infinity is the only way out.
Many thanks,
CIGA Philip

Two Awful Things That Happen When You Try Austerity
The winner of France’s first election round, Francois Hollande is out saying that austerity is the reason so many voters turned to nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen in the election.
This might sound controversial, but it has a historical precedent to the rise of Europe’s most infamous nationalist: Hitler.
Remember this chart from Dylan Grice?
clip_image002
And it wasn’t just that unemployment was high, it was that in the post-Weimar era, Germany pursued especially harsh deflationary policies. Sound familiar?
clip_image004
And of course, it’s not just the rise of nationalism you have to worry about.
Researchers Jacopo Ponticelli and Hans-Joachim Voth in a paper called Austerity and Anarchy: Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe,. 1919-2009 (.pdf) nicely linked budget cuts to social disorder.
clip_image006
So Europe is seeing nationalism and social unrest. Nothing new here.
More…

Size Matters A Lot


Dear CIGAs,

To better understand what China offers to gold, lets reverse the situation. Let us say that China has a means of interfering with the USA’s trade cash settlement mechanism and has threatened to use this interference in order to influence the United States to take such action that the USA does not necessarily wish. The United States announces that on June 28th, more than likely a deadline China has given in this reverse scenario, that the USA will settle all our imported energy costs from Saudi Arabia in gold rather than any other currency.
Consider how important that would be to gold. Think what this means to confidence in the fiat currency. We are not talking about a small meaningless country; we are talking about the two economic giants on the planet Earth. This is China versus the USA with the thrust being the SWIFT system and the parry being gold bullion.
This is history in the making. This is monetization of gold brought on as a parry to the trust of economic attack via the weapon, the SWIFT system. This is certainly economic war. It may well be an aggressive act that will change the economic world as we know it. It may be Phil that you have not thought out the implications of using the SWIFT system as a weapon. There is a huge backfire probable at a most unwelcome time in economic history.




Spend those gift cards, especially if you live in New Jersey

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 10 minutes ago
Not long ago American raised flags with the words Don't Tread on Me inscribed on them. Americans distracted by their iPads and mobile devices barely notice snake taking a stomping from big brother today. Society once considered the proposal below as stealing rather than good business. Headline: Spend those gift cards, especially if you live in New Jersey Here's another reason not to allow... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] more »

 

 

Missouri's sound-money bill is really a protest

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 31 minutes ago
Metallica, Fuel, Reload (1997) Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire, Gimme that which I desire, Ooh! Headline: Missouri's sound-money bill is really a protest When the dreaded hyperinflation arrives, the Missouri House wants Missourians to be ready. Last week, the legislative body passed the Missouri Sound Money Act of 2012, which declares U.S. gold and silver coins to be legal tender in the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] more »

 

 

Government Creep

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 35 minutes ago
*While the government struggles to save one crumbling enterprise at the expense of the crumbling of another, it accelerates the process of juggling debt, switching losses, piling loans on loans, mortgaging the future and the future's future. As things grow worse, the government protects itself not by contracting this process, but by expanding it. *- Ayn Rand, 1973 As an example of the mis-direction and "spin" put on economic news, I want to illustrate how today's release of the Case Shiller 20 metro city home price index for February. The index showed a slight gain (.15% adjuste... more »

 

 

Include The Fed As Well

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 42 minutes ago

Members within both the European (Spain, Greece, and so on.) and US (Illinois, Michigan, and so on) Union are beginning to struggle beyond MOPE's ability to repair it. The release of the Fed minutes, 'interpreted' as an improving economy and ebbing debt crisis reducing probability of further QE(n), sent gold and silver down the elevator shaft about two seconds after its release. Just one... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]




A Front Page You Won't See In The US

Just because try hard as it may, the Chairman's printer simply can't issue infinite electronic equivalents of the 79 proton element, newspapers with a circulation of 435,000 (same as the Chicago Tribune) on this side of the Ganges will hardly ever be allowed to show the following anti-patriotic advertisement.






What Data Can We Trust?

Modern investing offers the promise that investors who "do their homework" and use data more intelligently than the herd can gain a valuable edge. But what if the underlying data available to the investing public is fundamentally flawed?







Apple Suffers Biggest Two-Week Drop In 39 Months

Presented with little comment except to give some context for the current weakness in what was the world's largest market cap stock a few days ago. In the last 11 days, Apple has dropped over 12.5% - the largest such drop since January 2009 - as today sees the stock's fall continue to yesterday's lows down over 2.7%. With just a few hours to the event-horizon, options traders are active and stock volume run-rates are high as selling pressure dominates.




G-10 Macro Data Plunges To Worst In Six Months, Turns Negative

We have discussed the exuberance and dysphoria that is exhibited by economists in the context of extrapolating trends many times and nowhere is that more clearly pictured than in Citigroup's Economic Surprise Index which tracks the rise and fall of both misses and beats as well as better or worse data. For the first time in over six months, macro data for the G-10 has turned negative (with Europe having been there for a while and the US getting very close) indicating significant weakness. When this data turned from positive to negative in July 2010 it pre-empted the 'rescue' of the global economy via QE2 and each time it has dropped below its 200DMA (which it also just did) we have seen notable deterioration in equity prices soon after. What is more worrisome perhaps is the rate of deterioration over the last two months or so. Four of the last five times we dropped this rapidly we saw significant drops in stock prices soon after (Dec 2008, August 2010, and June 2011). Europe and the US are now trending lower in macro data 'surprises' as decoupling disappears but the US remains a little less bad for those looking for silver-linings - for now.




Europe Green But Italy And Sub-Financials Underperforming

Equity and credit markets in Europe followed the same-old-same-old path of a successful short-dated auction means buy-buy-buy and ended the day in the green today. A few things of note however stand out to us. First, the ramp in stocks/credit this time around is much less than last week's post-auction bliss which was also less than the prior week's post-auction squeeze higher. Second, there was a very notable dispersion between senior financials and subordinated financials credit today - with the spread between the two at almost 3 month wides. Third, Italy notably underperformed Spain today - by the largest in six weeks as the spread between these two is now back at 18bps, six-week tights and dramatically lower than the almost 50bps just a week ago. So while all may look rosy at the surface, we remain wider in spreads on the week and lower in stocks with all the real event risk ahead of us still.




What Happens When All The Money Vanishes Into Thin Air?

It's easy to expand the money supply and difficult to expand the actual production of real goods in the real world. Expanding the money supply and issuing debt that lacks collateral is just like printing quatloos on the desert island: you can print a million quatloos but that doesn't create a single additional coconut. If you print enough quatloos, then people will no longer accept them in exchange for coconuts. You will actually need a real coconut to exchange for fish. This is why Greek towns are reportedly reverting to barter, the exchange of real goods for other real goods. We can anticipate that silver and gold will soon enter the barter as means of exchange that can't be counterfeited or printed by wise-guys (central bankers).This is what happens when abstract representations, i.e. "money," vanish into thin air. Alternative systems of exchanging goods and services arise: actual goods are exchanged via barter, tangible concentrations of value that cannot be counterfeited such as gold and silver are used as a means of exchange, letters of credit or equivalent are traded and settled with tangible goods or gold/silver, and eventually, a means of exchange ("money") that is backed by tangible goods in the real world that can be trusted to actually represent the value being traded might enter the market. That which is phantom will vanish into thin air, while the real goods and services remain to be traded in the real world.




EFSF Issuance Proclaimed Success Even As Risk Hits 4 Month Highs

The EFSF 'firewall' issued EUR3 billion 7-year bonds this morning. It seems any time any European entity actually manages to issue debt, it is proclaimed as miraculous evidence of investor demand and comfort with these risks. In this case, we are told, via Bloomberg, that:

  • *EFSF SAYS BOND ISSUE MET WITH STRONG DEMAND
  • *EFSF SAYS SUPPORT FROM ASIA, CENTRAL BANKS, SOVEREIGN WEALTH
So the self-dealing continues to grow the ponzi ever bigger. However, what few will mention is that 10Y EFSF spreads (the risk premium over Bunds to hold these government-guaranteed exposed-to-Europe's-entrails) broke above 150bps today for the first time in over four months and are now over 35% higher than at the start of April. Success Indeed.

Europe's Risk-ually Transmitted Disease

Remember when Lehman or Bear Stearns was 'too small' to matter and 'subprime was contained', we we are getting same ignorant first-order analysis now with regard Spain (or more broadly-speaking Southern Europe). The whole of Southern Europe is only 6% of global GDP - how can that matter? (especially when we can eat iPads?) Michael Cembalest, of JPMorgan, provides some much needed sense on why these small countries pack a large disruption risk punch for global markets and economies. By breaking down the world into a few categories of disruption risk, the JPM CIO notes that the southern strain of Eurovirus has a much larger non-proportional impact thanks to transmission risk via its significantly greater share of sovereign and bank debt relative to the world and how these debts are financed. The transmission risk to the much-larger Northern Europe is material. We are already seeing Germany's new orders from within the Euro-zone slumping and this week's business sector surveys were very weak. As Cembalest concludes, from an alien's perspective, Earth may be able to outrun the collapse in Europe’s periphery if the ECB keeps printing money and the IMF increases its firewall, but it’s not going to be easy.




Fox News Admits Ron Paul Can Win Iowa!







Obama administration announces ‘War on Terror’ is over; So can we fire the TSA and repeal the Patriot Act now?

by Mike Adams, Natural News:
In an astonishing bit of unexpected news, a senior State Department official has announced, “The war on terror is over.” This stems from the idea, reports the National Journal, that, “it is no longer the case, in other words, that every Islamist is seen as a potential accessory to terrorists.”
That same official continues, “Now that we have killed most of al Qaida, now that people have come to see legitimate means of expression, people who once might have gone into al Qaida see an opportunity for a legitimate Islamism.”
This is great news, isn’t it? If the “War on Terror” is over, then we can repeal and reverse all the ridiculous police state laws that were put in place to protect us from terrorism… right?
Read More @ NaturalNews.com




The ASSAULTS on LIBERTY Continue: Big Brother Transport Bill Set to Advance This Week

Legislation would empower IRS to revoke passports of accused tax delinquents
by Paul Joseph Watson, Prison Planet:
A Big Brother transport bill that will empower the IRS to revoke passports of alleged tax delinquents, mandate the installation of black boxes in all cars, as well as a myriad of other privacy-busting measures, is set to take a huge leap forward this week.
House Republicans are taking heat from Democrats over their passage of a bill that merely extends funding for already existing federal highway programs. Dems such as Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) have been vocal in pushing the House to pass their version of Senate Bill 1813, otherwise known as the ‘Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act’ (MAP-21).
However, MAP-21 represents a complete federal power grab over transportation and includes a number of chilling provisions that threaten to trample constitutional rights across the board.
Read More @ PrisonPlanet.com




Not Just Spain: Cash Ban Spreads Around the World

by A.M Freyed, Info Wars:
Home Secretary Theresa May announced in January 2012 that the government would ban cash trading for scrap metal dealers under the Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Bill. Under the proposals ‘rag and bone’ itinerant collectors who are registered with their local authority to trade scrap metal will still be able to pay cash for scrap. The move has drawn criticism from the BMRA, which claims that itinerant traders are getting ‘special treatment’ from the government. – Let’s Recycle.com
The death of cash is much in the news these days, following Spanish government’s abrupt announcement banning cash transactions over 2,500 euros.
But what is surprising is how far advanced this trend is. Cash is being done away with in both bites and gulps. There have been articles in the alternative media discussing this on occasion but the mechanism is both subtle and overt.
Read More @ InfoWars.com




Is America Embracing the 10 Tenets of the Communist Manifesto?

by Brian Koenig, The New American:
Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, the purported founders of communism, established in the 19th century a government paradigm that transformed Europe and other regions in the eastern hemisphere, adding to an already expansive repertoire of political ideologies. And the seemingly farfetched assertion that communism could someday take control of America seems, quite simply, unfathomable. But is it really that improbable, or furthermore, has it already ensnared certain sectors of society?
Writing for The Blaze, Tiffany Gabbay recently produced a thoughtful exposé entitled “Are We Headed Toward the Constitution or the Communist Manifesto?” that breaks down the 10 tenets of Marx and Engels’ infamous 1848 publication and describes how those 10 steps or “planks” to establish communism are slowly being woven into American society. In prefacing her piece, which was published on Saturday, Gabbay quotes the British philosopher Anthony Flew, who exploited Marx’s blatant disregard for the truth:
Read More @ TheNewAmerican.com




The Trap Is Sprung? Obama as East-West Savior

from The Daily Bell:
In the wake of the Arab Spring, the Obama administration is grappling with how to handle Islamists, radical adherents to Islam. Particularly, the issue has come to the fore in regards to Egypt, which, as Reuel Marc Gerecht notes, “is now certain” to elect “an Islamist” as its leaders the next time the Egyptian people go to the polls. But some in the Obama administration are now seeing things differently. – Weekly Standard
Dominant Social Theme: Monetary competency is not what we need.
Free-Market Analysis: What we have here is what we’ve long anticipated, the end of one war and the beginning of a resurgent Barack Obama who may act as a peacemaker between East and West.
This analysis is speculative in the extreme and even “conspiratorial.” But it is borne of watching the way the power elite works, which is by way of what we call a dialectic.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com




China, peak gold and indicators suggest gold upwards trend to continue

by Zig Lambo, MineWeb.com

As long as there is no significant improvement in the world monetary situation and real interest rates don’t rise dramatically, John LaForge believes the gold price trend remains. Gold Report interview.

The Gold Report: The recent price performance of gold has probably left many investors puzzled about what’s going on amid all the conflicting background news. What’s your broad-picture view?
John LaForge: Gold is telling many stories at the same time. Recently, though, one of the main issues has been seasonality. Gold tends to do best toward the end of the fall, right around the Diwali wedding season in India, up until about now.
Read More @ MineWeb.com




Andrew Breitbart’s Autopsy Report Lacks Important Answers and Raises More Questions

by Paul Huebl, Crime File News:
The untimely death of Conservative blogger, Andrew Breitbart the night before he claimed to be releasing bombshell evidence that would derail Obama’s reelection campaign is beyond suspicious.
I interviewed witness Christopher Lassiter who saw Beritbart cross the street from the Brentwood, step onto a curb and, “drop like a sack of potatoes.” Breitbart collapsed on the sidewalk in front of the Starbucks. Civilians, cops and paramedics treated him at the scene. He was then transported to and pronounced dead at the UCLA Medical Center in nearby Westwood.
Lassiter went on to describe Breitbart’s clothing down to his high-end Converse sneakers. Lassiter was not familiar with Breitbart or his background. Lassiter was there walking his dog and became involved with the attempt to follow a 911 operator’s instructions to save the dying man’s life.
I asked Lassiter specifically about Breitbart’s skin color and he said it was “bright red.” That bothered me because as an Army medical corpsman I knew that most heart attack victims turned blue.
Read More @ CrimeFileNews.com




Unfunded Social Security Liabilities Now a Staggering $20.5 Trillion

by Bruce Krasting, Zero Hedge :
The Social Security Trust Fund (SSTF) 2012 report to Congress is now out (link). It’s 242 pages and contains a great deal of information. I have reviewed a number of sections in the report that I consider to be key measures of SS’s health. Not one of those variables showed any improvement. Some highlights:
The Net Present Value of the unfunded liabilities at SS is now a staggering $20.5 Trillion. One year ago this was $17.9T ($2.6T increase – 15% YoY). This yardstick grew at more than double the rate of the entire national debt 12/31/10 = $14T, 12/31/11 = $15.2T, total increase = $1.2T). This deterioration is staring policy makers in the face. The burden that SS will put on future generations is growing exponentially.
The “Drop Dead Date” where the SSTF is exhausted has been moved up three years to 2033.
Read More @ ZeroHedge.com




Krugerrand Premiums Falling Upon Gold-Specification Scandal on 2011 Proofs

from Silver Vigilante:
SV has heard through the grapevine that bids and asks are down on Krugerrands from some of the biggest distributors in the country. This after it was recently revealed that the 2011 gold Krugerrand Proof was under specification on Actual Gold Weight. According the anonymous source, Krands are being bought by large distributors at only $11 over spot price, which is low for such a popular bullion coin. The premium on the coin has dropped as well from this distributor and signals a possible flight from the Krugerrand by institutional investors and individual. Read More Here.
Further to the media statement issued by the South African Reserve Bank (Bank) on 8 December 2011 regarding technical issues within the operations of the SA Mint Company (SA Mint), investigations into the matter have revealed that some of the proof Krugerrand coins casted between April 2011 and May 2011may not meet all the required quality specifications.
Read More @ SilverVigilante.com



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