David Stockman: "The Capital Markets Are Simply A Branch Casino Of The Central Bank"

"This market isn't real. The two percent on the ten-year, the ninety basis points on the five-year, thirty basis points on a one-year – those are medicated, pegged rates created by the Fed and which fast-money traders trade against as long as they are confident the Fed can keep the whole market rigged. Nobody in their right mind wants to own the ten-year bond at a two percent interest rate. But they're doing it because they can borrow overnight money for free, ten basis points, put it on repo, collect 190 basis points a spread, and laugh all the way to the bank. And they will keep laughing all the way to the bank on Wall Street until they lose confidence in the Fed's ability to keep the yield curve pegged where it is today. If the bond ever starts falling in price, they unwind the carry trade. Then you get a message, "Do not pass go." Sell your bonds, unwind your overnight debt, your repo positions. And the system then begins to contract... The Fed has destroyed the money market. It has destroyed the capital markets. They have something that you can see on the screen called an "interest rate." That isn't a market price of money or a market price of five-year debt capital. That is an administered price that the Fed has set and that every trader watches by the minute to make sure that he's still in a positive spread. And you can't have capitalism if the capital markets are dead, if the capital markets are simply a branch office – branch casino – of the central bank. That's essentially what we have today."

 

Apple Falls

UPDATE: AAPL -6.25% AH
Major misses everywhere, and this for the second quarter in a row - from the Q3 earnings report:

• APPLE 3Q REV. $35.02B, EST. $37.25B
• APPLE 3Q EPS $9.32, EXP. $10.37
• APPLE 3Q NET PROFIT $8.8B
• APPLE SEES 4Q REV. ABOUT $34B, EST. $38.01B
• AAPLE 3Q GROSS MARGIN 42.8%, EST. 43.8%
• APPLE SOLD 17.0 MILLION IPADS DURING QTR, UNIT EST. 15.4M
• APPLE 3Q IPOD UNITS SOLD 6.8MLN , DOWN 10%
• APPLE SOLD 4.0 MILLION MACS DURING QTR, UNIT EST. 4.3M
• APPLE SOLD 6.8 MILLION IPODS IN QTR, UNIT EST. 6.6M

Is the dream over?

Netflix Plunges After Cutting Q3 Outlook, Sees Q4 Loss

The endless saga of the rental and streaming company, that once had a vendetta with Whitney Tilson until the latter finally threw in the towel after he first shorted then went long Netflix only to blow up on both occasions, continues, this time by plunging 15% after hours following a cut in guidance for Q3 and announcing it will likely once again have a loss in Q4.

The Li(e)bor Rigging Scandal Infographic For Dummies

Since (at least) 2005, Barclays has been manipulating LIBOR, and their traders have been allegedly pocketing $40MM a day betting on interest rate derivatives. If the LIBOR, one of the most fundamental metrics of our banking system can be rigged, can you imagine what other elements of our financial system are a fraud? This morning's comments from European regulators appears to confirm that this story has a long way to go as ECB's Almunia states: "The evidence we have collected is quite telling so I am pretty sure this investigation will not be closed without results."

Economic Countdown To The Olympics 5: Ten Olympic Trends

With the 302 events across 32 sports of the Olympics about to start (with early round soccer starting tomorrow), we conclude our five part (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4) series of posts bringing markets, economics, and sports together by looking at 10 exhibits that Goldman sees as describing how various aspects of the Olympics have evolved from the first modern Games in 1896 (where Greece won 46 medals compared to USA's 20) all the way to London 2012. From the monetary value of the distributed gold medals to the globalization of medal wins, the trends are analogous to the world's change but the full report attached provides some incredible interviews with many of the greatest Olympians ever with Michael Johnson reminding us that: "People are generally very fed up with political processes and the bickering that comes with it. You have some politicians with one particular set of ideas as to how to fix the problems and one with another set of ideas, and this continues to create a divide between people. The Olympic Games is the epitome of non-politicised activity. It’s about coming together... and having the opportunity to put differences aside and get behind their country and the athletes who are representing them."

Gold Outperforms But Hilsenrath-Rally Fails, As VIXophrenic Equities Converge To Bonds YTD

Pathetic. A late day surge to test yesterday's lows and VWAP (which makes some technical sense) was buoyed by positivity from yet another Hilsenrath 'hint'. The total lack of response in the afternoon as German and Spanish FinMins tried to jawbone us up was the reality. We do note though that all the 'Hint' managed to do was get us back to VWAP - which suggests that 'the force is weakening with this one'.

Hilsenrath Once Again With The 3:55 PM Sticksave

Just like last time around when stocks were plunging with no knight in shining armor in sight, until the Fed's faithful mouthpiece-cum-scribe Jon Hilsenrath showed up with a report, subsequently disproven, that more QE is coming minutes before the market close on July 6, so today stocks appeared poised for a precipice until some time after 3 pm it was leaked that none other than Hilseranth once again appeared, at precisely 3:55 pm, with more of the same. Ironically, the market only saw the word Hilsenrath in the headline, and ignored the rest. The irony is that this time around the Fed's scribbler said nothing that we did not know, namely that the Fed can do something in August, or it may do something in September, or it may do nothing, none of which is actually news.

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GM Stock Slides To Fresh Post-Bankruptcy Lows

Of all curious correlations we could find to demonstrate the collapse in GM stock, which opened for trade back in November 2010 at $35, and just hit an all time post-IPO low at just over half its IPO price, the best one that exemplifies the second great collapse of GM is the amount of dealer inventory, aka channel stuffing, shown on an inverted axis: the lower the price of GM, the more the channel stuffing. Of course, nobody could have possibly predicted that. Just like nobody could have predicted that Greece will need a third bailout, let along hit the IMF goal of 120 debt/GDP in 2020.

On Gold And The US Debt Trap?

As with much of the euro area, the US is in a debt trap. All the politicking in DC does not change this economic fact. The federal debt is going to be devalued. Yet even now, amid a new economic slowdown, US consumer price inflation is set to remain positive following a large spike in global food prices. Few things damage economic confidence more than food price inflation. Combined with the escalating financial crises in the euro area and also now in US municipals, the global slowdown already underway is likely to accelerate, leading to a further deterioration of sovereign finances. The debt trap is deepening, with ominous consequences for monetary and price inflation. The dollar and most currencies remain severely overvalued; gold and most commodities, undervalued. Those not in a position to vote themselves pay rises should consider buying some gold instead. Diluting dollars are not a store of value. Gold is.

The Reality Of Moody's European AAA Downgrades

The importance of the negative credit outlook from Moody’s lies less in the realm of financial markets, given how little investors seem to value the views of the credit rating agencies. Rather the major importance lies in the policy and political reactions to the rating actions. As UBS notes, there is a risk of popular (not political leadership) adverse reaction. The media in Germany (where there is a tradition of media hostility to the Euro periphery) or in the Netherlands (approaching a general election in September) may portray this as "we are being dragged down by the Euro periphery". If that does transpire it could easily fan the flames of populist resentment of the Euro still further. Critically, if the media attribute (or mis-attribute) the blame to the periphery, there could be obstacles to that integrationist momentum. The reality of a common monetary policy and the necessity of some kind of communalized fiscal responsibility are being brought to bear on the Euro area polity - but markets seem confused. CDS markets are pricing Germany's risk as if it was becoming increasingly encumbered to the periphery and yet the FX market is dragging EURUSD lower on expectations of massive upheaval and potential SPexit with no German 'unlimited' support. CDS appears to fit with raters, FX more with haters - or as UBS points out, perhaps all is not well in Germany as it "has demonstrably failed to grow its way out of debt."

Smithfield Importing Brazilian Corn

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 13 minutes ago

I mentioned in my morning piece today that some of the pressure in the corn market was tied to news that Smithfield, the largest US pork producer, was sourcing corn from Brazil instead of domestically here in the US. That is big news as it indicates how tight current supplies are and how the rise in price is already beginning to do its job of rationing demand. According to a consultant at Brazil's Safra & Mercado, reported by Dow JOnes which has been all over this story, corn at Brazilian ports is currently fetching $290/ton compared to US corn at the Gulf of Mexico which is closer ... more »

 

Chinese Stocks: The Lower They Go, The More Interested I Become

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago

“The lower they go, the more interested I become.” - *in CNBC* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*

 

Chris Hedges: The Careerists and the Banality of Evil

Spanish 10 yr yield rises again to 7.6%/Italian 10 yr yield 6.46%/Spanish yield curve inverts/ Negative 17 on the Richmond Mgf index/

Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 3 hours ago

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: The price of gold lowered today to the tune of $1.10 to $1576.  Silver also retreated by 23 cents to $26.79. Again we witnessed turmoil in Europe as the Spanish 10 yr bond yield hit 7.60%.  The Spanish Ibex lost another 3.6%.  Also the 5 yr Spanish bond traded higher in yield than the 10 yr thus causing an inversion to the yield curve signifying a huge

 

Interest Or No Interest On Excess Reserves, That Is The Question

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 3 hours ago

*For what it’s worth, there is an enormous amount of interference in the gold and silver share market. I think that will end as soon as gold and silver break their highs. When that happens, I think it’s going to unleash a rally in these stocks that is absolutely going to stun people. People will be shocked that don’t understand the full extent of the manipulation and how cheap these stocks have become as a result of it. -* John Embry on King World News LINK Before I delve into "excess reserves" held at the Fed by banks, I wanted to post two more indicators that confirm my the... more »

 

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Commentary

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - APPL and Netflix

 

 

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