from Silver Doctors:
As
has now become the norm, last week's initial claims was revised higher
(because no algos care about what the real number was with a one week
delay) from 361K to 366K (see chart below of cumulative impact when
incorporating the next week revision), even as this week saw a modest
miss at 366K on expectations of 365K. This "modest" 1K miss will be
revised to a 4K miss next week. And while continuing claims also missed
expectations by 5K, printing at 3,305K, it was the cliff of extended
benefits that continues to bite, with another 64K people no longer
collecting Uncle Sam's 99 week free dole in the week ended July 28. This
brings the last two weeks' total to nearly 200K: unless this handout
was replaced by disability payments, the hit to GDP will be material.
One
name comes up again and again when we look back at critical tipping
points in the financial system. Whether it is Lehman, WaMu, MFGlobal, or
more recently Knight Capital's implosion, the house-of-Dimon is tied
directly, in one way or another, to creating the crisis or offering
'help' to fix it. As the WSJ notes, the Knight CEO Thomas Joyce reached out "we're looking for help"
and sure enough JPMorgan were more than happy to help (with just the
right amount of vigorish of course) especially given their 'complicated'
relationship with Knight (and MFGlobal) at the time of distress. Sure
enough, after playing hardball for 2 days, they agree terms and Knight
is saved (for now) but once again the
bank-that-didn't-need-TARP fixes another tempest-in-a-teapot as the
squid and the whale battle for global interconnected dominance.
Even though in a centrally-planned world nobody cares about fundamental data anymore, and high frequency economics can't hold a candle to high frequency trading, today's Philly Fed was not good, missing expectations for the 5th month in a row, and printing in negative territory for the 4 month in a row, coming at -7.1 on expectations of -5.0, and down from -12.9. Sadly for the market, the data was not horrible enough to suggest that despite the seasonally adjusted economic data euphoria from earlier this wee, that the Chairsatan would surprise to the upside and preannounce MOAR NEW QE in 2 weeks. The data, however, was quite realistic, in that unlike BLS data which lately only keep track of part-time jobs, the Employment index in the Philly Fed printed at -8.6, the lowest since September 2009, and likely the most realistic indication of the jobs picture possible. And with prices paid soaring far over priced received, margins got crushed even more, as US companies continue to discover with every passing day.
"Business has gone from great to terrible in a matter of months. The sad truth is that most of my clients have already sold all of their gold rings," is anecdotal evidence of a growing trend that Bloomberg reports in Portugal. The central bank holds more gold relative to the size of the country’s economy than any euro country,
mostly accumulated during former dictator Antonio de Oliveira
Salazar’s 36 years in power, based on data compiled by the World Gold
Council. The law prevents proceeds from selling any gold reserves from
going toward the government’s budget. With the Portuguese unemployment
rate at a euro-era record of 15 percent in the second quarter, citizens
are wondering who will help bail them out now that their job and gold
are gone: "We have no more gold to save us from being kicked out this month,"
encapsulates a growing trend in debt crisis-stricken Europe as
household gold supplies dry up after record prices and a deepening
recession prompts a proliferation of places to exchange the metal for
money.
But,
but, but... the freeing up of 271.1 million of FaceBerg's shares
today, boosting by 60 percent the number that could be traded (freed up
from lock-up), was all priced in? It appears not as the share price
plunges over 5.5% back into the teens once again. Have no fear though,
when they figure out 'social' (and cold-fusion), the 33 analysts who
have it as a Buy or Hold will be proven right... only a another billion
or two more shares to come...
In
what should be the biggst non-news of the day, the NYT is reporting
that not only will Jon Corzine not face any criminal prosecution for
vaporizing hundreds of millions in client money (which subsequently
condensed in the JPM middle office), but will in fact be launching ...
wait for it... a hedge fund. "A criminal investigation into the collapse
of the brokerage firm MF Global and the disappearance of about $1
billion in customer money is now heading into its final stage without
charges expected against any top executives. After 10 months of
stitching together evidence on the firm’s demise, criminal investigators
are concluding that chaos and porous risk controls at the firm, rather
than fraud, allowed the money to disappear, according to people
involved in the case." And algos... And glitches... And faulty software
installs... And some junior person who has long since left the
company... and, and, and, lots and lots of passive voice... Because in
the Banana republic of the crave, no bundles can ever go to jail, no
matter how heinous the crime, which is not to say other places are
better: in Thailand you shoot your secretary in
the stomach during dinner with an Uzi and you don't even pay a $600
fine. But at least it puts things in perspective. So what is next in
store for this former man of power? "Mr. Corzine, in a bid to rebuild
his image and engage his passion for trading, is weighing whether to start a hedge fund, according to people with knowledge of his plans. He is currently trading with his family’s wealth. If
he is successful as a hedge fund manager, it would be the latest
career comeback for a man who was ousted from both the top seat at
Goldman Sachs and the New Jersey governor’s mansion." So will Jon will be buying Italian bonds? We don't know. Ask him yourself.
Since
over the past five years hedge funds are better known for coming up
with ingenious names, than for actually outperforming the market (recall that "the
aggregate hedge fund index is now significantly underperforming the
S&P 500 (from both the top in 2007 and the lows in 2009"), we hereby
wish to do the Honorable Jon
Corzine a favor, and save him the money he would otherwise spend on an
expensive naming consultant, by offering up the creative services of
our audience in conjuring the name for his future hedge fund. So dear
ZH readers, take it away, although keep in mind Long-Term
Capital Vaporization LP appears to already have been taken by a patent
troll (soon to be likely sued by YHOO).
I'm PayPal Verified
We have discussed this somewhat obscure indicator of our obese
nation's spending comfort-factor in the past, but just as divergences
from economic and non-equity market realities seem de rigeur currently,
we though we'd dust it off. The percentage of disposable income
spent on eating-out has plunged dramatically in the last two months
(the biggest drop since Lehman!) - after running up in a
well-correlated manner with stocks - from the 2009 lows. It would seem
that once again, equity hopefulness-divergence is writ large here and
yet consumers are not buying the hype/hope.
What's
the opposite of bloodbath? Italian and Spanish stock markets are
surging today - after lying S&P-like for a few days - with IBEX up
over 2% and FTSEMIB up almost 1.5%, both back up to four-month highs.
Now up 9% and 12% respectively since the EU Summit,
they appear to be reconnecting with post-EU Summit strength from the
rest of core-Europe and breaking resistance at the early July highs.
Will this mark the top of the range? Who knows. Swiss 2Y rates are still
negative - but well off their lowest levels - but what is most
interesting is that on a day when these two nations
no-short-selling-allowed equity markets are pushing to multi-month
highs, their sovereign bonds (which for all intent and purpose represent
the critical fulcrum security in the world) are leaking back higher in
yield and not enjoying all that enthusiasm. Just as in the
US, equity trading volumes have stagnated in Europe as these markets
have levitated and bonds stagnated - and the bullish curve moves have retraced more than 40% of their gains post-Draghi.
Are
we about to see a mini-war on UK soil, if and when Britain decides to
storm the Ecuadorian embassy, which moments ago announced it has
granted asylum to Julian Assange? From Reuters:
"Ecuador granted political asylum to Julian Assange on Thursday,
ratcheting up tension in a standoff with Britain which has warned it
could revoke the diplomatic status of Quito's embassy in London to allow
the extradition of the WikiLeaks founder. The high-profile Australian
former hacker has been holed up inside the red-brick embassy in central
London for eight weeks since he lost a legal battle to avoid
extradition to Sweden, where he is wanted for questioning over rape
allegations. Ecuadorean Foreign Minister Ricardo Patino said he feared
for the safety and rights of Assange which is why he said his country
had decided to grant him asylum. "Ecuador has decided to grant
political asylum to Julian Assange," Patino told a news conference in
Quito. Ecuador's decision takes what has become an international soap
opera to new heights since Assange first angered the United States and
its allies by publishing secret U.S. diplomatic cables on his WikiLeaks
website." The UK, needless to say, is not happy, and the UK foreign
ministry has said it will carry out binding obligation to extradite Assange to Sweden.
Looks like posturing is about to hit a crescendo and someone will have
to do something. Because foreign politics and diplomacy is (luckily)
not central planning.
The World Gold Council released its quarterly report today, Q2 2012 Gold Demand Trends Report and can be read in full on the World Gold Council website here. Accumulation of gold bullion from central banks was the bright spot in demand last quarter, as total demand fell 7% globally, which was driven by a 38% fall in consumer demand from India. Price sensitive Indians have been shunning gold and many have been opting for far cheaper poor man’s gold – silver. Jewellery and investment demand both fell. Jewellery consumption was down 72.3 tonnes at 418.3 tonnes, while investment fell 88.3 tonnes to 302 tonnes. The report shows how while record levels of demand from western markets, China and particularly India have been followed by a decline – the seismic shift that is central banks going from being bet sellers to net buyers has provided a new fundamental pillar of support for the gold market. Physical demand slowed down in western markets and especially in India in recent months but large buyers continue to accumulate - both hedge funds and central banks and this is providing fundamental support to gold above the $1500 to $1,600/oz level. 2Q total central bank gold purchases were double the level reported a year ago as emerging market sovereign nations sought to diversify away from the dollar and euro and heightened economic insecurity. Gold purchases among central banks hit its highest quarterly levels (157.5 metric tons) since the sector became a net buyer of the yellow metal in 2Q 2009.
The
market may have found itself in the purgatory of the summer doldrums,
where unlike last year this time, not only are volumes over 50% lower,
but volatility is non-existent, but that doesn't mean that investors
are sleeping easy. In fact, quite the opposite because as the
following chart from MS confirms, the lack of market volatility merely
mimics the complete chaos and lack of decisiveness in Congress, where
each passing day brings America not only closer to the most contentious
presidential election in ages, but to another debt ceiling hike
debate, and, of course, the fiscal cliff. All of these combined have
brought US policy uncertainty to the third all time highest level, on
par with September 11 and the collapse of Lehman/TARP, and just short
of last year's imminent European collapse, which was only staved off
courtesy of the coordinated global central bank intervention on November
30.
I'm PayPal Verified
Initial Claims Rise, Housing Starts Drops, NSA Housing Permits At Three Month Low
As
has now become the norm, last week's initial claims was revised higher
(because no algos care about what the real number was with a one week
delay) from 361K to 366K (see chart below of cumulative impact when
incorporating the next week revision), even as this week saw a modest
miss at 366K on expectations of 365K. This "modest" 1K miss will be
revised to a 4K miss next week. And while continuing claims also missed
expectations by 5K, printing at 3,305K, it was the cliff of extended
benefits that continues to bite, with another 64K people no longer
collecting Uncle Sam's 99 week free dole in the week ended July 28. This
brings the last two weeks' total to nearly 200K: unless this handout
was replaced by disability payments, the hit to GDP will be material.Meet Wall Street's Gatekeeper To Hell: JPMorgan
One
name comes up again and again when we look back at critical tipping
points in the financial system. Whether it is Lehman, WaMu, MFGlobal, or
more recently Knight Capital's implosion, the house-of-Dimon is tied
directly, in one way or another, to creating the crisis or offering
'help' to fix it. As the WSJ notes, the Knight CEO Thomas Joyce reached out "we're looking for help"
and sure enough JPMorgan were more than happy to help (with just the
right amount of vigorish of course) especially given their 'complicated'
relationship with Knight (and MFGlobal) at the time of distress. Sure
enough, after playing hardball for 2 days, they agree terms and Knight
is saved (for now) but once again the
bank-that-didn't-need-TARP fixes another tempest-in-a-teapot as the
squid and the whale battle for global interconnected dominance.Philly Fed Misses For 5th Consecutive Month, Employment Index Lowest Since September 2009
Even though in a centrally-planned world nobody cares about fundamental data anymore, and high frequency economics can't hold a candle to high frequency trading, today's Philly Fed was not good, missing expectations for the 5th month in a row, and printing in negative territory for the 4 month in a row, coming at -7.1 on expectations of -5.0, and down from -12.9. Sadly for the market, the data was not horrible enough to suggest that despite the seasonally adjusted economic data euphoria from earlier this wee, that the Chairsatan would surprise to the upside and preannounce MOAR NEW QE in 2 weeks. The data, however, was quite realistic, in that unlike BLS data which lately only keep track of part-time jobs, the Employment index in the Philly Fed printed at -8.6, the lowest since September 2009, and likely the most realistic indication of the jobs picture possible. And with prices paid soaring far over priced received, margins got crushed even more, as US companies continue to discover with every passing day.
The Portuguese Run Out Of Gold To Sell
"Business has gone from great to terrible in a matter of months. The sad truth is that most of my clients have already sold all of their gold rings," is anecdotal evidence of a growing trend that Bloomberg reports in Portugal. The central bank holds more gold relative to the size of the country’s economy than any euro country,
mostly accumulated during former dictator Antonio de Oliveira
Salazar’s 36 years in power, based on data compiled by the World Gold
Council. The law prevents proceeds from selling any gold reserves from
going toward the government’s budget. With the Portuguese unemployment
rate at a euro-era record of 15 percent in the second quarter, citizens
are wondering who will help bail them out now that their job and gold
are gone: "We have no more gold to save us from being kicked out this month,"
encapsulates a growing trend in debt crisis-stricken Europe as
household gold supplies dry up after record prices and a deepening
recession prompts a proliferation of places to exchange the metal for
money.FacePlant Back In The Teens
But,
but, but... the freeing up of 271.1 million of FaceBerg's shares
today, boosting by 60 percent the number that could be traded (freed up
from lock-up), was all priced in? It appears not as the share price
plunges over 5.5% back into the teens once again. Have no fear though,
when they figure out 'social' (and cold-fusion), the 33 analysts who
have it as a Buy or Hold will be proven right... only a another billion
or two more shares to come...Jon Corzine Will Not Only Not Face Prosectuion, But May Be Launching A Hedge Fund Imminently
In
what should be the biggst non-news of the day, the NYT is reporting
that not only will Jon Corzine not face any criminal prosecution for
vaporizing hundreds of millions in client money (which subsequently
condensed in the JPM middle office), but will in fact be launching ...
wait for it... a hedge fund. "A criminal investigation into the collapse
of the brokerage firm MF Global and the disappearance of about $1
billion in customer money is now heading into its final stage without
charges expected against any top executives. After 10 months of
stitching together evidence on the firm’s demise, criminal investigators
are concluding that chaos and porous risk controls at the firm, rather
than fraud, allowed the money to disappear, according to people
involved in the case." And algos... And glitches... And faulty software
installs... And some junior person who has long since left the
company... and, and, and, lots and lots of passive voice... Because in
the Banana republic of the crave, no bundles can ever go to jail, no
matter how heinous the crime, which is not to say other places are
better: in Thailand you shoot your secretary in
the stomach during dinner with an Uzi and you don't even pay a $600
fine. But at least it puts things in perspective. So what is next in
store for this former man of power? "Mr. Corzine, in a bid to rebuild
his image and engage his passion for trading, is weighing whether to start a hedge fund, according to people with knowledge of his plans. He is currently trading with his family’s wealth. If
he is successful as a hedge fund manager, it would be the latest
career comeback for a man who was ousted from both the top seat at
Goldman Sachs and the New Jersey governor’s mansion." So will Jon will be buying Italian bonds? We don't know. Ask him yourself.What Should Jon Corzine's Hedge Fund Be Named?
Since
over the past five years hedge funds are better known for coming up
with ingenious names, than for actually outperforming the market (recall that "the
aggregate hedge fund index is now significantly underperforming the
S&P 500 (from both the top in 2007 and the lows in 2009"), we hereby
wish to do the Honorable Jon
Corzine a favor, and save him the money he would otherwise spend on an
expensive naming consultant, by offering up the creative services of
our audience in conjuring the name for his future hedge fund. So dear
ZH readers, take it away, although keep in mind Long-Term
Capital Vaporization LP appears to already have been taken by a patent
troll (soon to be likely sued by YHOO).
We The Sheeplez... is intended to reflect
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and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure
online money transfers, will handle the donations. Thank you for your
contribution.
I'm PayPal VerifiedMailbox - Correlation of Gold and Bonds
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 minutes ago
Corporate (LTCBTRI) and government (LTGBTRI) bond total return indices show
a strong positive correlative to gold. I would not recommend arguing this
point in a room full of hardcore gold enthusiast. The capital appreciation
index (LTGBCAI) which excludes interest income shows the expected inverse
correlation. Table: Correlation Matrix Eric: In your...
[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other
content, and more! ]]
CNBC Video: I Do Not Think Romney Will Be Elected
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago
In this "Fast Money" excerpt, investor Marc Faber explains why he thinks
the stock market is rooting for President Obama's re-election in November.
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
We Are In The Late Stage Of A Mature Market
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago
We’re in the late stage of a mature market and not a new bull. - *in CNBC
Blog*
Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
California’s Revenue Falls 10.1% Below Forecast, Chiang Says
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
Trends from social to economic often begin in California and move across
the country. California's unexpected revenue shortfall could be bad timing
or a reflection of slowing consumer activity. If it suggests the early
stages of a consumer slowdown, the US economy and federal budget
countertrend reaction will reverse and decline. This will signal the onset
of the third...
[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other
content, and more! ]]Is Eating-Out Signaling Stocks Are Going Down?
We have discussed this somewhat obscure indicator of our obese
nation's spending comfort-factor in the past, but just as divergences
from economic and non-equity market realities seem de rigeur currently,
we though we'd dust it off. The percentage of disposable income
spent on eating-out has plunged dramatically in the last two months
(the biggest drop since Lehman!) - after running up in a
well-correlated manner with stocks - from the 2009 lows. It would seem
that once again, equity hopefulness-divergence is writ large here and
yet consumers are not buying the hype/hope.Spain And Italy Stocks Surging, Bonds Not So Much (Again)
What's
the opposite of bloodbath? Italian and Spanish stock markets are
surging today - after lying S&P-like for a few days - with IBEX up
over 2% and FTSEMIB up almost 1.5%, both back up to four-month highs.
Now up 9% and 12% respectively since the EU Summit,
they appear to be reconnecting with post-EU Summit strength from the
rest of core-Europe and breaking resistance at the early July highs.
Will this mark the top of the range? Who knows. Swiss 2Y rates are still
negative - but well off their lowest levels - but what is most
interesting is that on a day when these two nations
no-short-selling-allowed equity markets are pushing to multi-month
highs, their sovereign bonds (which for all intent and purpose represent
the critical fulcrum security in the world) are leaking back higher in
yield and not enjoying all that enthusiasm. Just as in the
US, equity trading volumes have stagnated in Europe as these markets
have levitated and bonds stagnated - and the bullish curve moves have retraced more than 40% of their gains post-Draghi.Conflict Brewing Between UK And Ecuador As Latin American Country Agrees To Grant Asylum To Assange
Are
we about to see a mini-war on UK soil, if and when Britain decides to
storm the Ecuadorian embassy, which moments ago announced it has
granted asylum to Julian Assange? From Reuters:
"Ecuador granted political asylum to Julian Assange on Thursday,
ratcheting up tension in a standoff with Britain which has warned it
could revoke the diplomatic status of Quito's embassy in London to allow
the extradition of the WikiLeaks founder. The high-profile Australian
former hacker has been holed up inside the red-brick embassy in central
London for eight weeks since he lost a legal battle to avoid
extradition to Sweden, where he is wanted for questioning over rape
allegations. Ecuadorean Foreign Minister Ricardo Patino said he feared
for the safety and rights of Assange which is why he said his country
had decided to grant him asylum. "Ecuador has decided to grant
political asylum to Julian Assange," Patino told a news conference in
Quito. Ecuador's decision takes what has become an international soap
opera to new heights since Assange first angered the United States and
its allies by publishing secret U.S. diplomatic cables on his WikiLeaks
website." The UK, needless to say, is not happy, and the UK foreign
ministry has said it will carry out binding obligation to extradite Assange to Sweden.
Looks like posturing is about to hit a crescendo and someone will have
to do something. Because foreign politics and diplomacy is (luckily)
not central planning.Gold Investment Demand And India, China Demand Down; Central Bank Demand Doubles
The World Gold Council released its quarterly report today, Q2 2012 Gold Demand Trends Report and can be read in full on the World Gold Council website here. Accumulation of gold bullion from central banks was the bright spot in demand last quarter, as total demand fell 7% globally, which was driven by a 38% fall in consumer demand from India. Price sensitive Indians have been shunning gold and many have been opting for far cheaper poor man’s gold – silver. Jewellery and investment demand both fell. Jewellery consumption was down 72.3 tonnes at 418.3 tonnes, while investment fell 88.3 tonnes to 302 tonnes. The report shows how while record levels of demand from western markets, China and particularly India have been followed by a decline – the seismic shift that is central banks going from being bet sellers to net buyers has provided a new fundamental pillar of support for the gold market. Physical demand slowed down in western markets and especially in India in recent months but large buyers continue to accumulate - both hedge funds and central banks and this is providing fundamental support to gold above the $1500 to $1,600/oz level. 2Q total central bank gold purchases were double the level reported a year ago as emerging market sovereign nations sought to diversify away from the dollar and euro and heightened economic insecurity. Gold purchases among central banks hit its highest quarterly levels (157.5 metric tons) since the sector became a net buyer of the yellow metal in 2Q 2009.
"The Disease Is Incurable"
One of the reasons that Europe is so difficult to assess is the tremendous amount of jargon and hype that comes pouring out from all across the Continent. Each separate nation sends out stuff and then Brussels sends out their fluff and then the ECB makes proclamations and there is no harmonization as each group has its own distinct platform. We are bombarded daily with national interests, Federal interests and finally an ECB that supposedly is beholden to no one but is, in fact, beholden to everyone and especially Germany as the paymaster. Almost every day there is a new bandwagon to jump on and a new disappointment to be found some days later as one plan after another does not come to fruition. So to make sense of it all you have to stop, come to a full halt and give due consideration to the totality of what is happening in Europe.Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: August 16
European equities opened higher, risk appetite boosted following overnight comments from Chinese Premier Wen that easing inflation in China left more room for monetary stimulus. However, summer thin volumes saw these gains pared, with particular underperformance in the FTSE 100, which currently trades in negative territory, despite stronger than expected UK retail sales for July. European CPI data for July was in line with market expectations, with no reaction seen across the asset classes following the release. Elsewhere, reports that Spain is to accelerate the bank bailout and is about to receive an emergency disbursement from the EUR 100bln bailout failed to support domestic bond market; the Spanish 2-year spread with respect to the German equivalent trading 6bps wider, though the Spanish 10-year spread is tighter on the day by 3.2bps and the 10-year yield is lower on the day, currently at 6.852%. The Spanish IBEX is outperforming on the back of this news, led by Bankia and Banco Santander.US Policy Uncertainty Back To Sept.11 And Lehman Collapse Levels
The
market may have found itself in the purgatory of the summer doldrums,
where unlike last year this time, not only are volumes over 50% lower,
but volatility is non-existent, but that doesn't mean that investors
are sleeping easy. In fact, quite the opposite because as the
following chart from MS confirms, the lack of market volatility merely
mimics the complete chaos and lack of decisiveness in Congress, where
each passing day brings America not only closer to the most contentious
presidential election in ages, but to another debt ceiling hike
debate, and, of course, the fiscal cliff. All of these combined have
brought US policy uncertainty to the third all time highest level, on
par with September 11 and the collapse of Lehman/TARP, and just short
of last year's imminent European collapse, which was only staved off
courtesy of the coordinated global central bank intervention on November
30.Frontrunning: August 16
- JPMorgan provided rescue financing to Knight (WSJ)
- HSBC hands U.S. more staff names in tax evasion probe (Reuters), HSBC, Credit Suisse Sacrifice Employees to U.S., Lawyers Say (BBG)
- Hong Kong shares slide to two-week closing low, China weak (Reuters)
- Israel Would Strike Iran to Gain a Delay, Oren Says (Businessweek)
- Britain 'threatened to storm Ecuador's London embassy' to arrest Julian Assange (AP)
- You have now entered the collateral-free zone: Spain Said to Speed EU Bank Bailout on Collateral Limits (BBG)
- China Can Meet Growth Target on Positive Signs, Wen Says (BBG)
- Risk Builds as Junk Bonds Boom (NYT)
- Berlin maintains firm line on Greece (FT)
- Brazil unveils $66bn stimulus plan (FT)
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