THAR SHE BLOWS! … Silver Remains Super EXPLOSIVE!
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A
year ago the mere mention of Greece selling its real estate, let along
its prized islands, was enough to fill Syntagma square with tear gas,
laser light pointers and the occasional riot dog. Now - nobody cares,
which is why the statement by Greek PM Samaras that he is ready to start
selling Greek islands was largely met with a yawn across the investing
world.
If
there was ever a sign that our economy, from the bottom-up, is running
on fumes, it was Big Lots' dismal earnings and even more dismal
outlook. The discounter is now down 21% back to 12 month lows...
Looking at the headline number in the just released New Home Sales data
one would be left with the impression that the tepid "recovery" in
housing may be chugging along: after all with a seasonally adjusted annualized
372,000 new homes sold in July, this was an improvement to the revised
359K in June (ignoring that the US housing market at best continues to drag along the bottom). This impression, however, promptly changes when one looks at the underlying data. The reality: the actual number of new homes sold in July was 34,000,
the same as in June, and the lowest since March. Of this, a massive
3,000 (yes, three thousand) homes were sold in the Northeast in the
entire month. Where things get worse is when one looks at the number of
new homes for sale. At 142,000 (of which just 38,000 actually
completed), this was the lowest number. EVER. And finally, to ruin all
hopes that the housing bottom may mean an actual pricing bottom, the
median new home price slid to $224,200, down from $229,100 in June, and
the lowest since January, while the average home price declined from
$266,900 to $263,200. This was the lowest average price posted so far in 2012.
One
(and by one, we mean the incumbent presidential candidate) can only
hope that consumer comfort tracked by Bloomberg is not a leading market
indicator... Of course, with Wall Street now solidly on the side of
Mitt Romney, and well aware it needs to crash the S&P ahead of
November if Romney is to have a running chance, this may well be the
case.
One month of positive economic surprises since the last FOMC may be all we get, now that a "majority" of FOMC members suddenly need a rapid deterioration in economic data to usher in the NEWER, MORE OPEN-ENDED QE. Initial claims was happy to comply: after posting several weeks in a row of "beats", claims has finally resumed "missing", as well as rising, posting an increase from last week's upward revised 368K print to 372K this week, worse than the expected improvement to 365K, and to a one month high. And with continuing claims missing too, the real story continues to be the steep fall off in those on extended benefits and EUC, which declined by a total of 48K in the past week, and down by about half a million in the last few months, and lower by 1.3 million in the past year. This is 1.3 million fewer consumers who can recycle Uncle Sam's dole back into the economy and iGadgets. The question is whether this minimal miss is enough to justify the FOMC doves' fears the much more QE is needed. Judging by the futures reaction to Bullard and claims, the answer is so far no, and in fact points to something very ominous: the closer the Fed (and ECB) come to actually doing something instead of talking about it, the more negative the market reaction seems to be. Woe to Bernanke or Draghi the second they finally have to do something instead of telling listeners to "believe them."
With
only days until the great unveiling and back-slapping that is the
GOP's 'convention without walls', we humbly suggest they erect some -
and buy some umbrellas. In NOAA's most recent update,
Hurricane Isaac is forecast to pass right down the middle of main
street Tampa amid Romney-and-Ryan's great moment so far. Of course,
TOTUS will be riley smiling, noting that God didn't build this storm,
his government did. Somewhat ironically, Tampa mayor Bob Buckhorn added,
for once, "Safety is going to trump politics" - perhaps he should tell
Bernanke.
It
was the best of times (US equities); it was the worst of times (the
world's growth engine - China). HSBC-Markit just announced the Flash PMI
for August and it's not pretty - printing at a nine-month low (47.8 vs 49.3 in July). Of course, China's own version remains in the Schrodinger-like >50-expansion state for now but with all 11 sub-indices in this evening's data pointing to weakness, we suspect not even the Chinese can sell that data for much longer. So what next - RRR? Massive stimulus? - don't hold your breath
given the recent reverse repos and the already creeping-inflation in
food and energy prices. The piece-de-resistance of the data-dump though
has to be (in line with Japan's trade data last night) is the New Export Orders slumped to 44.7 - lowest since March 2009 when trade finance collapsed post-Lehman.
Today’s Items:
Finally, please prepare now for the escalating economic and social unrest. Good Day!
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08/22/2012 - 17:55
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I'm PayPal VerifiedGreece Ready To Start Selling Its Islands
A
year ago the mere mention of Greece selling its real estate, let along
its prized islands, was enough to fill Syntagma square with tear gas,
laser light pointers and the occasional riot dog. Now - nobody cares,
which is why the statement by Greek PM Samaras that he is ready to start
selling Greek islands was largely met with a yawn across the investing
world.Bullard Says FOMC Minutes Are Stale
Following yesterday's FOMC minutes we suggested that the minutes are, all facts considered, extremely stale, especially when one actually observes the surge in all economic indicators (or should we say seasonal adjustments) since the last FOMC meeting. Moments ago, on CNBC, non-voting St Louis Fed president confirmed just that.- St. Louis Fed President Bullard says FOMC minutes “are a bit stale”.
- Says some data stronger since FOMC minutes
- Doesn’t know where FOMC will come out on easing
- Says “different constellation” of data vs 2011
- Says “not sure” data warrant big FOMC action
- Says U.S. unemployment “very high”
- Says “we’re not going to react” directly to stock market
BIG Selling Lots
If
there was ever a sign that our economy, from the bottom-up, is running
on fumes, it was Big Lots' dismal earnings and even more dismal
outlook. The discounter is now down 21% back to 12 month lows...Spot The Housing Bottom: New Homes For Sale Drop To Lowest Ever; Average New Home Price Plunges To 2012 Lows
Looking at the headline number in the just released New Home Sales data
one would be left with the impression that the tepid "recovery" in
housing may be chugging along: after all with a seasonally adjusted annualized
372,000 new homes sold in July, this was an improvement to the revised
359K in June (ignoring that the US housing market at best continues to drag along the bottom). This impression, however, promptly changes when one looks at the underlying data. The reality: the actual number of new homes sold in July was 34,000,
the same as in June, and the lowest since March. Of this, a massive
3,000 (yes, three thousand) homes were sold in the Northeast in the
entire month. Where things get worse is when one looks at the number of
new homes for sale. At 142,000 (of which just 38,000 actually
completed), this was the lowest number. EVER. And finally, to ruin all
hopes that the housing bottom may mean an actual pricing bottom, the
median new home price slid to $224,200, down from $229,100 in June, and
the lowest since January, while the average home price declined from
$266,900 to $263,200. This was the lowest average price posted so far in 2012. What's Wrong With This Chart?
One
(and by one, we mean the incumbent presidential candidate) can only
hope that consumer comfort tracked by Bloomberg is not a leading market
indicator... Of course, with Wall Street now solidly on the side of
Mitt Romney, and well aware it needs to crash the S&P ahead of
November if Romney is to have a running chance, this may well be the
case.China Is Growing And The Rest Of The World Is Declining
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 50 minutes ago
I haven’t sold any of my assets in China. My Chinese shares are for my
children. Yes, there are problems in China, sure. But I assure you, if
there are problems in China, the rest of us have serious problems, too.
I don’t know if China will grow 7 percent. Why can’t they grow 2 or 3
percent? Two percent is more than fine. The rest of the world is declining.
- *in CNBC*
Related: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful
international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New
York Times, Barron’... more »
Goldman Sachs: Dump Stocks Before Fiscal Cliff Hits
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
It's hard to promote a message of fear (risk-off) when the market is
saying it's time to be greedy (risk-on). Chart 1: Risk On versus Risk Off
Chart 2: NYSE Composite and Market Internals This rally, however, lacks
volume. Volume plays a large part in defining trend energy. Rising trend
energy defined by positive divergences with...
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content, and more! ]]
A Balanced Approach For the Next 10 Years
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
Investment Conference Presentation: Forecasts For The Global Economy
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 3 hours ago
*
**
*Video description: Marc Faber discusses what opportunities are likely to
emerge for institutional investors if sovereign debt continues.
Furthermore, he assesses the possible impact of social and political unrest
in North Africa and the Middle East, and how hedge funds can invest in
emerging markets.
Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)
*
**Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
China Is Easing Too Soon
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 3 hours ago
I think they’re a mistake and there’s still inflation in China. Yes, the
property bubble has popped and prices have started coming down but not
enough in my view.
The most recent statistics show that Chinese property market is starting to
recover. Well, that’s not the way you kill a real estate bubble. You don’t
let it recover after six months of declines. You stay tight.
China has given in two or three times in the past few years when they have
tried to pop the bubble. Things start declining, they get nervous, they
loosen up again and it gets worse. I would stay tough. - *in CNBC*
... more »
Interest Rates Key to Silver Direction
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 8 hours ago
We have said for some time now that Silver will only benefit in a period in
which inflation is the main fear and not deflation. That of course implies
that the bond and note markets will begin pushing rates HIGHER out of
inflation fears.
With this is mind, observe the following chart comparing the price action
of Silver to the Yield on the Ten Year Treasury Note. The Silver price is
the lighter colored line while the black line is the yield on the ten year.
Note how uncannily similar the chart patterns are of the two beginning near
the month of October 2010. Why is this? Simple - if... more »
Gold Needs a Strong Close to End this Week
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 8 hours ago
The following weekly chart provides a bit of longer term perspective as it
shows the very solid level of buying support that has marked an
accumulation phase by some very large players down below the $1585 - $1565
level. That buying has forged a bottom in this market while it slowly
gathered steam for an upside breakout that forced the hands of the
speculative shorts and enticed momentum based money flows back onto the
long side of the market.
There are two main points to bring away from this chart. The first is that
gold has managed to clear a downsloping trend line going back to t... more »
CNBC's Heavy-Handed Advocacy For Wall Street Is Painfully Evident in This Neil Barofsky Interview
Newsflow Sentiment Confirms Global Recession
The last few months have seen a rapid deterioration in economic newsflow.
SocGen's newsflow indicators, which capture sentiment regarding trends
in the underlying economy (based on the balance of economic strength
and weakness in newswire and newspaper articles) typically leads the
economy by around three months. Currently, this intriguing indicator suggests a notable drop off in global industrial production - and furthermore, while Fed/ECB anticipation has dragged market-implied inflation expectations up, newsflow has biased towards deflation rather notably in the last few months.
It seems that rather than being the chess pieces of global central
planners, we really do have minds of our own and act in our own best
interest.
Gold And Platinum Surge As Mining Unrest Spreads
Industrial unrest hobbling the South African platinum industry deepened yesterday, prompting fears of a broader mining crisis in one of the main platinum and gold producing countries. Platinum and gold prices continued to soar partly due to real concerns of supply disruptions after 44 people died during strikes at a pit owned by Lonmin. About a fifth of global platinum production capacity is idled in South Africa today as the nation holds a day of mourning for 44 miners and policemen killed in the deadliest police violence since apartheid ended (see Newswire). Massive discontent has spread to two other important platinum mines. Amplats, the world’s largest platinum producer that is 80% owned by Anglo American, disclosed it had received demands for pay rises at its Thembelani mine. Meanwhile, another miner, Royal Bafokeng, said about 500 people were protesting outside its Rasimone mine, and preventing others from going to work. It seems likely that the protests will spread from the platinum sector, to other sectors, including the gold mining sector.Market Unhappy With Initial Claims Miss As 1.3 Million People Fall Off Extended Benefits In Past Year
One month of positive economic surprises since the last FOMC may be all we get, now that a "majority" of FOMC members suddenly need a rapid deterioration in economic data to usher in the NEWER, MORE OPEN-ENDED QE. Initial claims was happy to comply: after posting several weeks in a row of "beats", claims has finally resumed "missing", as well as rising, posting an increase from last week's upward revised 368K print to 372K this week, worse than the expected improvement to 365K, and to a one month high. And with continuing claims missing too, the real story continues to be the steep fall off in those on extended benefits and EUC, which declined by a total of 48K in the past week, and down by about half a million in the last few months, and lower by 1.3 million in the past year. This is 1.3 million fewer consumers who can recycle Uncle Sam's dole back into the economy and iGadgets. The question is whether this minimal miss is enough to justify the FOMC doves' fears the much more QE is needed. Judging by the futures reaction to Bullard and claims, the answer is so far no, and in fact points to something very ominous: the closer the Fed (and ECB) come to actually doing something instead of talking about it, the more negative the market reaction seems to be. Woe to Bernanke or Draghi the second they finally have to do something instead of telling listeners to "believe them."
Hurricane Issac Expected To Pass Right Above GOP Convention
With
only days until the great unveiling and back-slapping that is the
GOP's 'convention without walls', we humbly suggest they erect some -
and buy some umbrellas. In NOAA's most recent update,
Hurricane Isaac is forecast to pass right down the middle of main
street Tampa amid Romney-and-Ryan's great moment so far. Of course,
TOTUS will be riley smiling, noting that God didn't build this storm,
his government did. Somewhat ironically, Tampa mayor Bob Buckhorn added,
for once, "Safety is going to trump politics" - perhaps he should tell
Bernanke.Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: August 23
Reports that the ECB is discussing a new variation for sovereign bond purchases involving secret caps for interest rates failed to support peripheral EU bonds and instead provided market participants with an opportunity to book profits following recent strong gains. As a result, 10y peripheral bonds with respect to the benchmark German Bund are wider by around 12bps, with the shorter dated 2y bonds wider by around 15bps. This underperformance by peripheral EU assets is also evident in the stock market, where the IBEX and the Italian FTSE-MIB failed to match performance of the core indices today. The latest PMI data from the Eurozone, as well as China overnight underpinned the need for more simulative measures either from respective central banks or the government. While the PBOC continues to refrain from more easing, the release of the FOMC minutes last night revealed the members favoured easing soon if no growth doesn’t pick up.Frontrunning: August 23
- Australian minister says resources boom is over (Reuters)
- China dismisses reports of lost gold reserves (China Daily) - so China really did lose 80 tons of gold.
- Inconceivable: Former JPM CEO and Chairman William B Harrison Jr come out "In Defense Of Big Banks"
- Qantas Cancels 787 Order After Posting Annual Net Loss (Bloomberg)
- EU Official Says Crisis is Eroding Influence (WSJ)
- Greece Faces New Pressure on Cuts (WSJ)
- Philippines' black market is China's golden connection (Reuters)
- Hollande government responds to criticism (FT)
- LG Display Starts Touch Screens Output Before New IPhone (Bloomberg)
- Greek Crisis Evasion to Fore as Merkel Hosts Hollande in Berlin (Bloomberg)
- Stakes rise as US warned of double-dip (FT)
- Brazil’s Richest Woman Unmasked With $13 Billion Fortune (Bloomberg)
Peak Desperation: ECB "May" Set "Secret" Bond Caps, Bild Says Without Citing Anyone
Just when we thought we had seen and heard it (and by it we mean lies, innuendo and desperation) all, here comes the one thing that confirms where the ECB, and Europe, is concerned, we ain't ever seen nuthin' yet. According to Bloomberg, the ECB may set secret ceilings on the yields of govt bonds from countries requiring bailout aid, Welt reports, without citing anyone. Note the words "secret" and "without citing anyone" because they really are key. Because it is unclear whether Bild is truly stupid enough to assume that what amounts to a limitless bond purchase operation could remain a secret and not show up on the ECB balance sheet. What it really is, is merely a last step desperation attempt by Mario to keep on talking down bond yields, since a month into his "believe me" speech, the ECB has yet to do anything, let alone secret or not so secret yield caps, let alone Spain demanding a bailout, let alone the ECB even reaching a consensus with Germany and Bundesbank both opposing any incremental money printing. Welt says that the ECB could also set a range for yields, merely another absolutely idiotic "detail" in the ECB's "secret" plan. Supposedly the advantage of a range is that the ECB wouldn’t need to defend a set price at any cost, could tolerate S/T deviations. The (lack of) logic for this measure is that central bankers no longer believe that announcing a ceiling and making it public would be enough to calm markets. But nothing, nothing, can prepare one for what comes next: Secret yield ceilings would only work if they aren’t leaked says Welt. Yup. They said that. This is where blood shoot be shooting out of your nose at escape velocity.China Flash PMI Plummets As New Export Orders Collapse To Lehman Lows
It
was the best of times (US equities); it was the worst of times (the
world's growth engine - China). HSBC-Markit just announced the Flash PMI
for August and it's not pretty - printing at a nine-month low (47.8 vs 49.3 in July). Of course, China's own version remains in the Schrodinger-like >50-expansion state for now but with all 11 sub-indices in this evening's data pointing to weakness, we suspect not even the Chinese can sell that data for much longer. So what next - RRR? Massive stimulus? - don't hold your breath
given the recent reverse repos and the already creeping-inflation in
food and energy prices. The piece-de-resistance of the data-dump though
has to be (in line with Japan's trade data last night) is the New Export Orders slumped to 44.7 - lowest since March 2009 when trade finance collapsed post-Lehman.Today’s Items:
The Obama supported, and Al-Qaeda
partnered, Muslim Brotherhood controlled Egypt has moved their tanks
into the northern Sinai Peninsula without notifying Israel – which is in
violation of the 33 year old peace treaty between Egypt and Israel.
So, is this story real, or a possible false flag for a kinetic Action?
If we get by for another year without a major war in the Middle East…
It will be a miracle.
Could there be potentially an intervention
by the European Central Bank in the bond markets? If so, this could
be a temporary game-changer in the euro zone debt crisis as their
central bank monetizes sovereign debts of bankrupt EU countries like
Greece. Of course, this action will most likely lead to even higher
commodity prices and potentially leave euro on par with the defunct
Zimbabwe dollar.
Officials at Standard and Poors are citing
that the odds that the U.S. will slip back into recession next year
have risen. They claim that the risk of a hard landing for China’s
economy have added greater uncertainty to US economic prospects and a
double-dip recession in Europe transmits financial turmoil to the US.
How can there be a double dip when the majority of us aren’t even out of
the first dip? It’s tough to dip back into something we never really
left. No wonder the FED is hinting, yet again, at more stimulus, or money printing.
More and more people are waking up to the
fact that precious metals are where they want to be. Bill Murphy, from
GATA, believes that JP Morgan’s naked short position will be the root of
a major scandal rivaling LIBOR. In regards to the Treasury market,
there has been so much manipulation; such that, they are beginning to
lose control. Expect to see massive price increases in gold and silver
simply because there is not enough of to cover the years of manipulated
naked shorts.
In reviewing the interactive info-graphic…
In 1960, total healthcare spending was $23.4 billion with about $1.6
billion, or 6.8 percent, coming from public sources like Medicare and
Medicaid. In 2010, total healthcare spending was $2.186 trillion with
about $957.1 billion, or 43.78 percent, coming from public sources. In
1960, out-of-pocket expenses for prescription drugs was 96%; today it
is a mere 19%. How times have changed.
In some good news for dumpster divers, a
study by the Natural Resources Defense Council, shows that the average
American family throws out as much $2,275 in food each year, or 20
pounds per person per month. Since the 1970′s, the amount of uneaten
food dumped has jumped 50%. Of course, this percentage will decrease as
food becomes more and more expensive.
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