Silver Jumps To Two Month Highs As Oil Reverts

Silver has popped almost 2% today - its biggest jump in 3 weeks - as it nears its 100DMA. So what? It's still down notably from its Q1 swing highs but two things stand out to us as intriguing. First, oil priced in ounces of silver has seen a very narrow range of values since Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech in 2010 (QE2) when money-printing went full retard; and very recently the price of oil in silver had reached the upper end of that channel - and is now reverting. Second, the recent outperformance of silver over Gold has reverted the gold/silver ratio to its post-Bretton-Woods (1971) average at around 56x (up from a recent low of around 32x in April 2011). It seems there are stirrings in the real asset markets as energy and hard-money revert.

 

Shhhh… It’s Even Worse Than The Great Depression

In just four short years, our “enlightened” policy-makers have slowed money velocity to depths never seen in the Great Depression.  Hard to believe, but the guy who made a career out of Monday-morning quarterbacking the Great Depression has already proven himself a bigger idiot than all of his predecessors (and in less than half the time!!).  During the Great Depression, monetary base was expanded in response to slowing economic activity, in other words it was reactive  (here’s a graph) .  They waited until the forest was ablaze before breaking out the hoses, and for that they’ve been rightly criticized.  Our “proactive”  Fed elected to hose down a forest that wasn’t actually on fire, with gasoline, and the results speak for themselves.  With the IMF recently  lowering its 2012 US GDP growth forecast to 2%, while  the monetary base is expanding at about a 5% clip, know that velocity of money is grinding lower every time you breathe.

Silver Spike Does Not Deter Zombie Market As Apple Touches The Sign Of The Beast

UPDATE: AAPL cracked the demonic $666 level after-hours
For a moment this morning some were even thinking this would be the day, this could be the one where volumes come back, ranges expand, and some level of risk sensitivity returns; but alas, despite all the AAPL pumping and Silver surging, Equities ended the day unch on weak volumes (actually cash equities ended very small down for the 16th of the last 17 Monday red closes). The S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) intraday range was a remarkably low 8.5pts, volume at its new post-Knight normal (half-normal), average trade-size lower than average, and risk-assets in general were highly correlated during the day-session as Treasuries also closed unchanged, USD down very modestly and Oil unch. Financials and Tech & Healthcare and Utilities were the only sectors in the green on the day (in an awkward risk on and off way). Copper dumped as Silver surged 2.6% on the day to two-month highs. AAPL also surged 2.6% (up 7% in the last 6 days - a level that has repeatedly been followed by pullbacks this year) as everyone's new favorite IPO (MANU) lost 2.6% (even as FB gained almost 5% closing just below $20). VIX gained 0.6 vols ending above 14% (but drifted lower from the open). While the markets main seem zombie-like, there were some intraday moves in FX and Treasury markets - but these were dominant during Europe's open and faded into the US day-session.

When Japan Goes Japanese: Presenting The Terminal Keynesian Endgame In 14 Charts

It is hard to find fiscal situations that are worse than Japan's. The gross government debt/GDP ratio, at more than 200%, is the worst among the major developed economies. Yet yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have not only been among the lowest, they have also been stable, even during the recent deterioration during the European debt crisis. This apparent contravention of the laws of economics is both an enigma for foreign investors and the reason for them to expect fiscal collapse as a result of a sharp rise in selling pressure in the JGB market. As Goldman notes, the European debt crisis has led to an increase in market sensitivity to sovereign risk in general and questions remain on when to expect the tensions in the JGB market and the fiscal deficit to reach a breaking point in Japan. In the following 14 charts, we explore the sustainability of fiscal deficit financing in Japan and Goldman addresses the JGB puzzles.

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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Nice Little Rally In Silver

SP 500 and NDX Daily Charts - 'No Fear' Levitation on Fed Put Perceptions

Bill Black On Wall Street Control Frauds and Moral Hazard

Boom Goes The Dynamite: Silver Pops

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 1 hour ago

*But gold has risen with only slightly more than 1% of the world’s assets in gold. Right now the world’s assets are about $150 trillion. Of that number, $60 trillion is in cash, $40 trillion is in bonds, and $40 trillion is in stocks. But, remarkably, only $2 trillion or just a bit over 1% is in gold. With inflation headed higher, institutions, which have virtually no allocation to gold today, they will have to increase their allocation to gold. There have been several studies over the last few months that have suggested that institutions will need to put part of their funds i... more » 

 

 

 

Stealth Mode Rally in Silver Maybe not so Stealthy Anymore

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 3 hours ago

I remarked last week that silver had been slyly working its way higher in very quiet fashion but was knocking on the door of overhead resistance. Today it broke that resistance and so far is doing it in convincing fashion. Based purely on technical factors, it should try to make a run at $29 where heavier supply awaits. That stands between it and a handle of "30" which will most certainly catch the attention of the momentum crowd. Take a look at the shorter term moving averages (not labelled). These are the 10 day and 20 day respectively. Notice that late last week BOTH MOVING AVERA... more » 

 

 

 

More People Study Public Relations Than Study Agriculture

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 3 hours ago

Nearly every year, the world always has a problem somewhere with weather or something, since the beginning of time, and I suspect we will continue to. The problem now is it’s going to be more and more difficult to recover because of two things. One, we’ve consumed more than we’ve produced nearly every year over the last decade, so inventories are very low. But more importantly, we’re running out of farmers. The average age of farmers in America is 58. More people study public relations than study agriculture. We don’t have anybody going into agriculture. Something’s got to happen, s... more » 

 

 

 

Why Are Chinese Companies Pulling Out Of The U.S. Stock Market?

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 3 hours ago

Probably all these companies have some questionable accounting, so they may prefer to move out of the U.S., not to come under too much scrutiny. - *in Arizona Republic* Related: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (FXI), Powershares Golden Dragon China (PGJ) *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* 

Is The Post-Crisis Corporate Re-Leveraging Rally Over?

Last week we pointed out the cognitive dissonance between the 'belief' that advanced economies are gradually (and rightly) deleveraging  - as central banks maintain the status quo by kicking the can - and the reality of no actual deleveraging. Today, we look at the global corporate re-leveraging cycle that, as UBS notes, has struggled to gain traction after the initial recovery phase following the 2008/9 crisis. The corporate re-leveraging process is broadly defined as trends in the use of cash as well as more active capital structure dynamics - a cycle that has ebbed and flowed over the last three years. In 2011 we witnessed some encouraging trends; but with the rolling crisis in Europe and continued uncertainty about the overall strength of the global economy,  it’s probably no surprise we’re seeing an apparent stalling out of the re-leveraging cycle. Returns on capital are set to decline this year - the first time since before the financial crisis as RoE is being squeezed from all sides: asset turns, profit margins, and leverage.

AppleSoft: Is It Different This Time?

With Apple overtaking Microsoft's 'peak-market-cap' and becoming the most 'valuable' company ever traded, we thought a reflection on what humans (as opposed to machines programmed by humans) did the last time a world-changing technology company went ubiquitous.

AAPL Options 'Complacency' Near 2009 Record Highs

AAPL is making headlines once again with its market-moving impact, its law-of-large-numbers-crushing daily moves, and its seeming cult of indifference among retail and hedge funds alike. As the stock price hits new all-time highs, we note that options prices are also breaking records with the complacency regarding any downside risk near post-2009 highs. The last three times we have been up at these levels has seen significant reversions in price: Nov 2010 -7.3% in 6 days, -12.68% in late July 2011, and a late Feb 2012 drop of 5.83% in 4 days.

Taxes Vs Debt: Where Does US Funding Come From - Chart Of The Day

A key sticking point in the ongoing presidential debate is what happens to US tax rates, either for just those making over an arbitrary $250,000/year, aka "the rich", or for everyone. To put this debate into perspective, here is a chart that shows how over the past 20 years the US funding needs (demonstrated previously here), have been met in terms of the only two components of US funding - tax revenue and debt issuance.

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