Are The Bernank's Fingerprints All Over Equity Indices?
The
link between nominal interest rates, inflation breakevens, and stocks
has changed; especially with regard the last few years' seemingly
increased dependence on the Central Bank to keep an anti-deflationary
floor on breakevens (or conversely the Bernanke Put under stocks).
UBS' macro team, while humbly professing not to be experts in
corporate earnings (which have been dismal) or balance sheet ratios
(which are positive but have deteriorated in recent months) believe in a
big picture macro perspective that we have been vociferously
commenting on for a year or two now. Specifically, they have noticed a
potentially curious link between the way the market interpreted
monetary policy signals and the large cap stocks in the US: the
breakeven inflation rate on 10yr TIPS has tracked the S&P 500 very
closely this year. When the Fed is perceived to be successful
in stimulating the economy, stocks benefit and breakevens also rise.
When the Fed’s potency is called into question, stocks fade and
breakevens decline. As official policy rates remain frozen near zero
(and remain so for the foreseeable futures), nominal Treasury rates
have lost their 'signal' as UBS agrees with the point we have been
making for a long time: central bankers and politicians, not economic fundamentals and inflation expectations, currently drive the nominal rate and equity markets.
from, Bullion Street:
Gold and silver closed the week with record gains on better physical demand and also on expectations of further easing.
Gold futures for December delivery rose 10 cents to settle at $1,672.90 an ounce on the Comex in New York, bringing the weekly gain to 3.3 percent, the most since Jan. 27.
Silver futures for December delivery rose 0.5 percent to $30.709 an ounce on the Comex, capping a 9.3 percent rally for the week that was the biggest since October.
For the week, the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund (GLD) is up over 3%, which was the least dynamic of the gains posted by other popular plays in precious metals.
Read More @ BullionStreet.com
The Germans have given up on two of the most German aspects of being German. It’s very embarrassing. And neither surrender bodes well for the rest of Europe this time around.
The first blunder was a change to an odd quirk regarding the German defence forces. But it’s a quirk learned from experience: ‘After World War II the new constitution ruled that soldiers could not be deployed with guns at the ready on German soil…’ Any exceptions? Not until now.
It probably seems a bit odd that the army couldn’t do anything but practice and prance around on parade grounds inside Germany. On foreign soil, it’s bombs away. But inside Germany, they could only help out during natural disasters (unarmed).
This bizarre restriction is perfectly in line with the idea that the people are the ones the army is protecting, not the politicians. To be specific, it’s ordinary Germans that the army is protecting from the blundering politicians, domestic and foreign, and their propensity to start a war.
But now, all that has changed. The courts have come up with some exceptions to the rule. Those exceptions have something to do with terrorism. That’s the global excuse for just about everything these days. Never mind the fact that the eurozone crisis is going on and the rest of Europe is seeing riots.
Read More @ DailyReckoning.com.au
Gold and silver closed the week with record gains on better physical demand and also on expectations of further easing.Gold futures for December delivery rose 10 cents to settle at $1,672.90 an ounce on the Comex in New York, bringing the weekly gain to 3.3 percent, the most since Jan. 27.
Silver futures for December delivery rose 0.5 percent to $30.709 an ounce on the Comex, capping a 9.3 percent rally for the week that was the biggest since October.
For the week, the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund (GLD) is up over 3%, which was the least dynamic of the gains posted by other popular plays in precious metals.
Read More @ BullionStreet.com
by Nickolai Hubble, Daily Reckoning.com.au:
The Germans have given up on two of the most German aspects of being German. It’s very embarrassing. And neither surrender bodes well for the rest of Europe this time around.
The first blunder was a change to an odd quirk regarding the German defence forces. But it’s a quirk learned from experience: ‘After World War II the new constitution ruled that soldiers could not be deployed with guns at the ready on German soil…’ Any exceptions? Not until now.
It probably seems a bit odd that the army couldn’t do anything but practice and prance around on parade grounds inside Germany. On foreign soil, it’s bombs away. But inside Germany, they could only help out during natural disasters (unarmed).
This bizarre restriction is perfectly in line with the idea that the people are the ones the army is protecting, not the politicians. To be specific, it’s ordinary Germans that the army is protecting from the blundering politicians, domestic and foreign, and their propensity to start a war.
But now, all that has changed. The courts have come up with some exceptions to the rule. Those exceptions have something to do with terrorism. That’s the global excuse for just about everything these days. Never mind the fact that the eurozone crisis is going on and the rest of Europe is seeing riots.
Read More @ DailyReckoning.com.au
Big Outflow Trouble In Not So Little China?
China
has two problems... well more than two we are sure, but these seem
critical. The combination of a slowing (and seemingly unstoppable)
economic trajectory with significant negative money-flows is becoming a
vicious circle - that the PBOC is increasingly unable (or politically
incapable) to 'fix'.
by Zarathustra, Also Sprach Analyst:
Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, was quoted two days ago saying that the PBOC will not rule out any possible monetary policy tools at their disposal (via China Securities Journal).
Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, was quoted two days ago saying that the PBOC will not rule out any possible monetary policy tools at their disposal (via China Securities Journal).
Zhou Xiaochuan was asked about future policy in the
context of massive liquidity injection through reverse repo operations.
The market has been hoping for some a cut of reserve requirement ratio
(RRR) almost every week now, so the lack of RRR cut together with
continuous reverse repo operations leave some wondering if RRR is no
longer a preferred tools.
Governor Zhou said no tools will be ruled out.
Given that the economy
has been slowing much worse than even some of the pessimistic
forecasters (like ourselves) have been expecting, and that the real
situation is probably even worse than official data suggest, there is
every reason to believe that both the government and the PBOC has to
ease (although not yet, as we have said repeatedly).
For People’s Bank of China, there are a few tools. Some of them are the usual suspects (see more on our guide to China’s monetary policy):
Read More @ AlsoSprachAnalyst.comThe Unvarnished Truth About Greece
While
Belize is comfortable buggering bondholders, the Greeks (following
this morning's headlines) remain beholden to their euro-zone overlords -
having survived a few more months on the back of reach-around
'bailouts' and ponzi-financing - all in the effort of providing more
time for the 'rest of Europe' to figure out how to handle the 'Athens
moment' that is surely coming. With September and October critical
'event-rich' months, Patrick Young, of DV Advisors, provides the
clearest and least 'rose-tinted' perspective on where Greece has been,
where they are now, and where this will all end. From the forged
application for euro-zone membership to Oz-like fantasies of growth and
austerity targets that remain pipe-dreams (and are constantly being
missed), the bold Irishman in this brief clip explains "Greece has not
done anything to really help itself, missed every deadline its been
given" and the PM's comments on their 'spectacular come-back' clarifies the 'utter delusion' among the Greek political class because "Greece is bankrupt; full stop; game over" and Merkel must agree to 'let' Greece leave the Euro (post Troika) - as the rise of civil unrest, since whatever new money flows their way exits right out the back door and never 'helps' the people, is inevitable.SATURDAY, AUGUST 25, 2012 Republican party platform discussing gold standard/Mary Schapiro defeated at SEC with respect to Money Markets/Hilsenrath saves the day by stating the Fed as "Further scope for action" and thus a possible QEIII is forthcoming/German finance ministry discussing "Grexit"/
Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 3 hours ago
Good
morning Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed up 20 cents at comex closing time at $1669.80. Silver also
rebounded to post a positive gain of 16 cents to $30.61. On Thursday
afternoon I sent an email to Bart Chilton warning him that a raid was
imminent in both silver and gold. Gold was up $32.00 and silver was up a
huge 90 cents on Thursday, yet all of the major gold/silver equities
like
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I'm PayPal VerifiedSophie Scholl: The Final Days - The Trial and Death of Die Weiße Rose
from TheAlexJonesChannel :
Constitutional scholar & founder of Oath Keepers Stewart Rhodes joins Alex to discuss the actions of our criminal government and its continuing attempts to demonize military veterans and anyone who stands for truth, honor and the Constitutional Republic.
Constitutional scholar & founder of Oath Keepers Stewart Rhodes joins Alex to discuss the actions of our criminal government and its continuing attempts to demonize military veterans and anyone who stands for truth, honor and the Constitutional Republic.
The Perils Of Underestimating Complexity And Mispricing Risk
"If you’re rich you get a bailout. If you’re poor you get a handout. And if you’re middle class you get left out."
That's not a sustainable way to run the system, exclaims investment
strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. A cancer at the core of our current
economy is the magical thinking, "no pain, all gain" philosophy,
pursued by those running it. They are doing all they can to remove the
consequences of failure from the system -- blind to failure's essential
'waste-clearing' function in a healthy free market. Without
the discipline of Darwinism, the individual actors in the system make
all sorts of malinvestments that would never make sense in an efficient
marketplace. But since the losses from these inane pursuits
are socialized, there's no incentive to stop making them. At least, up
until the point where the class whose back is burdened with paying for
the socialized messes finally breaks.The Circular Logic And Prayer Tactics Of Draghi Queens, Sinomaniacs, And Other Orwellians
We
have desperately tried to explain the sheer idiocy of the circular
argument of the Fed 'attemping' to stimulate fiscal policy by enacting
an overly permissive monetary policy, having failed miserably time after
time. Perhaps the 'simplistic' argumentation of Diapason's Sean
Corrigan will succeed where we have failed (although we are not holding
our breath) as ne hotes, in true Orwellian fashion that 'Weakness is Strength' and "Once bailed out, always bailed out seems to be the guiding inference. Meantime, close your eyes and pray."
from KingWorldNews:
The KWN Weekly Metals Wrap – We have added new segments to the KWN
Weekly Metals Wrap covering gold, silver, trading and a plethora of
other factors affecting the precious metals markets. I am giving King
World News listeners globally access to what has long been my secret
weapons in researching where gold and silver are headed directionally
along with the COT Report. We Cover the Commitment of Traders Report in
detail as well as a number of other factors which can influence the gold
and silver market price action.
LISTEN NOW @ KingWorldNews.com
The KWN Weekly Metals Wrap – We have added new segments to the KWN
Weekly Metals Wrap covering gold, silver, trading and a plethora of
other factors affecting the precious metals markets. I am giving King
World News listeners globally access to what has long been my secret
weapons in researching where gold and silver are headed directionally
along with the COT Report. We Cover the Commitment of Traders Report in
detail as well as a number of other factors which can influence the gold
and silver market price action.LISTEN NOW @ KingWorldNews.com
by Bruce Krasting, Bruce Krasting Blog:
The Congressional Budget Office came out with its Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook 2012 – 2022 yesterday (Link).
The press jumped on the report’s conclusion that the consequences of
not dealing with the fiscal cliff will cause a recession in 2013. The
CBO thought it might result in 0.5% YoY drop in GDP.
Ho Hum to that. If the country does not come up with some compromises, and we do fall of the fiscal cliff, the recession will be much large than a half percent decline.
For the hell of it, I looked up the CBO report for 2002. This report contains the forecast for calendar year 2012. In a number of critical areas, the CBO missed by a mile:
I don’t blame the CBO for these big misses. It is not its job to predict wars and the biggest recession in 80 years. But a look at what was thought to be reasonable a decade ago shows that the expectations were not reasonable at all. Bad “stuff” happens. Bubbles, wars and recessions can’t be predicted with any degree of accuracy, but it is predictable that they will occur.
Read More @ BruceKrasting.blogspot.com
The Congressional Budget Office came out with its Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook 2012 – 2022 yesterday (Link).
The press jumped on the report’s conclusion that the consequences of
not dealing with the fiscal cliff will cause a recession in 2013. The
CBO thought it might result in 0.5% YoY drop in GDP.Ho Hum to that. If the country does not come up with some compromises, and we do fall of the fiscal cliff, the recession will be much large than a half percent decline.
For the hell of it, I looked up the CBO report for 2002. This report contains the forecast for calendar year 2012. In a number of critical areas, the CBO missed by a mile:
I don’t blame the CBO for these big misses. It is not its job to predict wars and the biggest recession in 80 years. But a look at what was thought to be reasonable a decade ago shows that the expectations were not reasonable at all. Bad “stuff” happens. Bubbles, wars and recessions can’t be predicted with any degree of accuracy, but it is predictable that they will occur.
Read More @ BruceKrasting.blogspot.com
by David Galland, Casey Research:
Dear Reader,
A Wolf, meeting with a Lamb astray from the fold, resolved not to lay violent hands on him, but to find some plea to justify to the Lamb the Wolf’s right to eat him.
He thus addressed him: “Sirrah, last year you grossly insulted me.”
“Indeed,” bleated the Lamb in a mournful tone of voice, “I was not then born.”
Then said the Wolf, “You feed in my pasture.”
“No, good sir,” replied the Lamb, “I have not yet tasted grass.”
Again said the Wolf, “You drink of my well.”
“No,” exclaimed the Lamb, “I never yet drank water, for as yet my mother’s milk is both food and drink to me.”
Upon which the Wolf seized him and ate him up, saying, “Well! I won’t remain supperless, even though you refute every one of my imputations.”
The tyrant will always find a pretext for his tyranny.
–The Wolf and the Lamb, Aesop’s Fables
Growing up in Hawaii as a Caucasian, or “haole” in the local parlance, there were any number of occasions where I was targeted simply because of my race. The hassles could start while surfing, where locals felt they had certain natural rights to the best waves, or pretty much anywhere at any time that a group of young Hawaiians felt the need to take some personal revenge for the hijacking of their islands. (And, in all fairness, their islands were hijacked.)
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
Dear Reader,A Wolf, meeting with a Lamb astray from the fold, resolved not to lay violent hands on him, but to find some plea to justify to the Lamb the Wolf’s right to eat him.
He thus addressed him: “Sirrah, last year you grossly insulted me.”
“Indeed,” bleated the Lamb in a mournful tone of voice, “I was not then born.”
Then said the Wolf, “You feed in my pasture.”
“No, good sir,” replied the Lamb, “I have not yet tasted grass.”
Again said the Wolf, “You drink of my well.”
“No,” exclaimed the Lamb, “I never yet drank water, for as yet my mother’s milk is both food and drink to me.”
Upon which the Wolf seized him and ate him up, saying, “Well! I won’t remain supperless, even though you refute every one of my imputations.”
The tyrant will always find a pretext for his tyranny.
–The Wolf and the Lamb, Aesop’s Fables
Growing up in Hawaii as a Caucasian, or “haole” in the local parlance, there were any number of occasions where I was targeted simply because of my race. The hassles could start while surfing, where locals felt they had certain natural rights to the best waves, or pretty much anywhere at any time that a group of young Hawaiians felt the need to take some personal revenge for the hijacking of their islands. (And, in all fairness, their islands were hijacked.)
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
by Jeff Nielson, SilverGoldBull:
Regular readers know that I am not a proponent of technical analysis,
based upon the simple/obvious fact that most of the (long list of)
assumptions on which “T/A” is based are hopelessly invalid.
At the top of that list are “free and open markets” and “perfect information” (for investors). Anyone believing those fantasies has probably been ingesting powerful narcotics. Thus T/A has become a device for manipulating the Sheep – rather than any sort of legitimate tool of analysis.
This does not mean however that we should simply completely ignore it. The fact that so many of the Sheep allow themselves to be guided by it means that we know how it will be used (against us). We’ve seen many examples of this over the past year and a half. The bullion banks would wait for any “technical break-out” in the sector – and then pounce on the market, creating a bearish “reversal”, and negating any positive optics in the sector for the Sheep.
As the Manipulators of T/A; both the bankers and the propaganda machine love to throw their “bearish indicators” at the market whenever possible – despite knowing that those “indicators” were 100% contrived (by themselves). Conversely, if the propaganda machine wants to “control the message” (an important goal), then it is also forced to acknowledge positive T/A, when it’s staring them in the face.
Read More @ SilverGoldBull
Regular readers know that I am not a proponent of technical analysis,
based upon the simple/obvious fact that most of the (long list of)
assumptions on which “T/A” is based are hopelessly invalid.At the top of that list are “free and open markets” and “perfect information” (for investors). Anyone believing those fantasies has probably been ingesting powerful narcotics. Thus T/A has become a device for manipulating the Sheep – rather than any sort of legitimate tool of analysis.
This does not mean however that we should simply completely ignore it. The fact that so many of the Sheep allow themselves to be guided by it means that we know how it will be used (against us). We’ve seen many examples of this over the past year and a half. The bullion banks would wait for any “technical break-out” in the sector – and then pounce on the market, creating a bearish “reversal”, and negating any positive optics in the sector for the Sheep.
As the Manipulators of T/A; both the bankers and the propaganda machine love to throw their “bearish indicators” at the market whenever possible – despite knowing that those “indicators” were 100% contrived (by themselves). Conversely, if the propaganda machine wants to “control the message” (an important goal), then it is also forced to acknowledge positive T/A, when it’s staring them in the face.
Read More @ SilverGoldBull
from RussiaToday:
Ecuador has scored another point in its diplomatic row with Britain over granting asylum to Julian Assange. 34-member bloc of American nations has declared ‘solidarity and support’ for the country – condemning the UK’s earlier threats to storm its embassy in London to get to the whistleblower who revealed American military crimes against humanity.
Ecuador has scored another point in its diplomatic row with Britain over granting asylum to Julian Assange. 34-member bloc of American nations has declared ‘solidarity and support’ for the country – condemning the UK’s earlier threats to storm its embassy in London to get to the whistleblower who revealed American military crimes against humanity.
from Gold Money:
Worries about global growth and a Greek exit from the eurozone – the
so called “Grexit” – were again putting pressure on stock markets around
the world, while precious metals continued to rally. Yesterday the DOW
Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest loss this month, shedding
115.30 points and closing at 13,057.46. The selling continued in Asia
with the Nikkei losing 1.17%.
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, who is visiting European leaders this week to fight for Greece to remain in the eurozone, is going to meet with German chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin today. His main objective will be to negotiate a longer time window to implement his reforms. He hopes that Greece will reach the EU budget deficit goal of 2% in 2016 – 2 years later than demanded by the Troika.
Prior to the meeting, Samaras announced that his country would be bankrupt by October if the Troika did not release the scheduled €31 billion in new bailout money. In the same interview, Samaras also told the press that he would “personally guarantee” that creditors will receive their money back. How this is supposed to work remains to be seen, but Merkel continued to be unimpressed, warning that Greece must maintain its path of reform to receive more bailout funds.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com
Worries about global growth and a Greek exit from the eurozone – the
so called “Grexit” – were again putting pressure on stock markets around
the world, while precious metals continued to rally. Yesterday the DOW
Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest loss this month, shedding
115.30 points and closing at 13,057.46. The selling continued in Asia
with the Nikkei losing 1.17%.Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, who is visiting European leaders this week to fight for Greece to remain in the eurozone, is going to meet with German chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin today. His main objective will be to negotiate a longer time window to implement his reforms. He hopes that Greece will reach the EU budget deficit goal of 2% in 2016 – 2 years later than demanded by the Troika.
Prior to the meeting, Samaras announced that his country would be bankrupt by October if the Troika did not release the scheduled €31 billion in new bailout money. In the same interview, Samaras also told the press that he would “personally guarantee” that creditors will receive their money back. How this is supposed to work remains to be seen, but Merkel continued to be unimpressed, warning that Greece must maintain its path of reform to receive more bailout funds.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com
by Susanne Posel, Occupy Corporatism:
According to mainstream media (MSM), the capital of Syria is under siege as the CIA-sponsored Free Syrian Army (FSA) conducts house raids and attacks military checkpoints on highways.
In Turkey, Turkish officials, intelligence agents, military officials, and Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, have had an “operational planning meeting” where they are finalizing their schemes to support the FSA in this proxy war to takedown Assad and force a regime change.
Clinton’s meeting with Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkish Foreign Minister, and members of the FSA was to combine forces to bring about the US/Israeli agenda of forced regime change.
The global Elite’s plan for Syria involves the US State Department and Clinton having being given control over the region once it is destroyed.
Read More @ OccupyCorporatism.com
According to mainstream media (MSM), the capital of Syria is under siege as the CIA-sponsored Free Syrian Army (FSA) conducts house raids and attacks military checkpoints on highways.
In Turkey, Turkish officials, intelligence agents, military officials, and Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, have had an “operational planning meeting” where they are finalizing their schemes to support the FSA in this proxy war to takedown Assad and force a regime change.
Clinton’s meeting with Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkish Foreign Minister, and members of the FSA was to combine forces to bring about the US/Israeli agenda of forced regime change.
The global Elite’s plan for Syria involves the US State Department and Clinton having being given control over the region once it is destroyed.
Read More @ OccupyCorporatism.com
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