The Gathering Storm
When
it comes to Glenn Hubbard, the man needs no introduction, at least to
those who have watched the Charles Ferguson seminal movie 'Inside Job.'
Indeed, the extensive connections of the Dean of the Columbia school
of business to the financial industry is well known, a fact which
served as the basis of Ferguson's question: just how corrupt is
America's elite educational establishment, and just how much of a factor
in the perpetuation of the status quo is Wall Street's puppet control
over each generation of rising financial and economic thinkers. For
those who are unaware, Hubbard also happens to be presidential
candidate Mitt Romney's top economic advisor. The reason why Hubbard has
suddenly made the headlines, is because of his overnight statement
that contrary to what the potential future president has said, namely
that Bernanke's days would be numbered under a Romney presidency, and
that the Fed would be audited, Glenn has taken the other side of this
argument, and told Reuters that Bernanke should "get every
consideration" to stay beyond January 2014, when Ben's term expires. But
why? Well, for the answer to this particular question, we have to go
back to that long ago year 2004, when Glenn Hubbard together with
current Fed president, and former chief Goldman chief economist Bill
Dudley, authored a white paper bearing the Goldman sachs logo, titled "How Capital Markets Enhance Economic Performance and Facilitate Job Creation." In a word: for Mr. Hubbard (as well as for Mr. Dudley, Goldman Sachs, and thus, the New York Fed) it is all about the capital markets.
Euro Optimism Surges, A Greek Tax Revolt Flares Up: It’s Decision Time
The jury is still out whether Israel will or will not attack Iran, despite the endless and relentless (dis)information in the media from all sides, and certainly when such an attack might happen, but if it did take place, these are all the logistically possible formats what an airborne attack could look like.
In tort law, an attractive nuisance is any potentially hazardous object or condition that is likely to attract the naive and unwary, i.e. children. A classic example is an abandoned swimming pool half-filled with fetid water. The stock market is demonstrably an "attractive nuisance" and should be closed immediately. It should never be reopened unless these conditions can be met: 1) All shares must be owned for at least four hours 2) All trading must be executed by humans on a transparent exchange where all trading activity (and open orders) is visible to all participants 3) Intervention in the market by the Federal Reserve or any Central State agency or agents is against the law. If you insist on putting money at risk in the stock market, be aware that you are playing a rigged roulette wheel and thus you are a mark. You might win, or the entire game might collapse in a rotten heap of lies and corruption. Just remember that the market is ruled by parasites who need to keep their hosts (investors) alive so they can continue to feed off them (i.e. biotrophic parasites). If the hosts all leave the market, the parasites will have only themselves to feed on, and they will quickly expire.
Europe
just can't make its mind up this morning. Some chatter of a Fed
adviser's report of more investigation into QE3 spurred USD weakness and
implicit EUR strength which stands in the face of a weakening European
credit and equity market today...
In
the past 50 years, the way health care is financed has changed, with
private payers and public insurance paying for more care. The California Healthcare Foundation has created this excellent interactive graphic shows who paid for the nation's health care and how much it's costs have shifted since 1960. The tree-map provides an intriguing exposition of the 'relative costs' but as The Economist adds, with regard the 'absolute costs': American healthcare costs increased by roughly 100 times, from $27 billion in 1960 to $2.6 trillion in 2010.
The topic of Obama and his teleprompters (one of which was stolen a year ago, causing a public appearance delay) has been so pervasive in the "counterculture" that it led to the creation of the term TOTUS. But it wasn't until today that TOTUS is now officially part of the mainstream media lexicon courtesy of this slideshow via Reuters, which should explain just who pulls the strings.
Syria and Iran are, in a way, the first dominos in a long chain of terrible events.
This chain, as chaotic as it seems, leads to only one end result:
Third world status for almost every country on the planet, including
the U.S., leaving the financial institutions, like monetary grim
reapers, to swoop in and gather up the pieces that remain to be
fashioned into a kind of Frankenstein economy. A fiscal golem. A
global monstrosity that removes all sovereignty whether real or imagined
and centralizes the decision making processes of humanity into the
hands of a morally bankrupt few. The only people celebrating at the end of the calamitous hostilities will be the hyper-moneyed power addicted .01%,
who will celebrate their global coup in private, laughing as the rest
of the world burns itself out, and comes begging them for help.
And the payroll propaganda was going so well until... New Jersey happened. As the chart below shows, in the month of July the state, arguably the Tristate area's most employer friendly, saw a sequential drop of 12,000 jobs, which was the largest one month drop since June 2009. Outlier? Or the harbinger of things to come at the national level? We will likely not now for sure until after the presidential election at which point the endless data fudging and manipulation finally ends.
Spain's IBEX equity index is down 2% today
- the largest drop in three weeks - after touching the 200DMA on
Monday and turning down (-3.3%). The equity market - which appears to
be trading like nothing more than an upside call on any potential for
survivability (and is 'helped' by a short-selling ban) - remains
notably rich to its relatively less-ebullient sovereign bond market -
which suggests a minimum downside of 6-7% more - just to shake off the exuberance. Yes, the short-end has done better, roll risk aside, but today 2Y is 9bps wider as the 5Y CDS is 13bps wider and 10Y spread 15bps wider. Is Draghi's 'Eurhopium' dream wearing off?
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Some
in the markets think that the Fed effectively targets equity prices,
meaning that to predict Fed policy, one merely needs to track the US
stock market. There is a curious circularity to this view,
however: the Fed will not launch QE3 so long as stock prices are high,
yet the stock market is high because it anticipates QE3.
BofAML's chart-of-the-day is intrguingly similar to our 'QE Hopeyness'
chart as it shows that stock and bond prices have decoupled since the
summer, as QE3 expectations overwhelmed the weaker macroeconomic data
to buoy equities. Now that recent data have improved, yields have risen
- but so too have stocks. This "heads I win, tails you lose" aspect of
stock prices rising regardless of the macro backdrop, BofAML believes,
makes them a far less useful signal for Fed officials. Moreover, it
creates the risk that the equity market could sell off after the 12-13
September FOMC meeting if the Fed disappoints. Right now, however, we
are in an anti-Goldilocks period in which the data are too hot for
clear-cut Fed easing, but too cold to support a sustained rebound —
anything but "just right".
This morning's update on the ECB's FX swap usage confirmed what those who care about this kind of stuff already know: the USD shortage in Europe, all Libor and other manipulated and fraudulent signs to the contrary, is getting worse: in the week starting August 23, the number of banks demanding a 7 day USD swap with the NY Fed, and intermediated by the ECB, rose to 12, or the highest since February, while the amount requested was $8.5 billion, or the second highest in 2012 so far. In other words, while everyone knows the EUR interbank market in Europe is slammed shut, most likely in perpetuity, courtesy of the trillions in EURs raining from the ECB, it is now once again time for the USD market to implode, something it last did in the beginning of 2012 when the advent of the short-term benefit from LTRO 1 and 2 fixed the funding situation, albeit briefly.
Today’s Items:
Finally, please prepare now for the escalating economic and social unrest. Good Day!
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The easy choices are now behind us and the hard choices are in front of us
and wild speculations hanging upon the syllables uttered by Mr. Draghi
may bring disastrous results. In a very real sense Ms. Merkel is going
to be hanged if she does and hanged if she doesn’t and it is quite
difficult to find a safe place to stand when on the platform where the
noose and executioner resides. The present situation has one certainty,
one block of bedrock upon which you may plant your feet and that is
that a storm is coming; of that you may be sure.
The easy choices are now behind us and the hard choices are in front of us
and wild speculations hanging upon the syllables uttered by Mr. Draghi
may bring disastrous results. In a very real sense Ms. Merkel is going
to be hanged if she does and hanged if she doesn’t and it is quite
difficult to find a safe place to stand when on the platform where the
noose and executioner resides. The present situation has one certainty,
one block of bedrock upon which you may plant your feet and that is
that a storm is coming; of that you may be sure.Capital Markets Über Alles: What Mitt Romney's Economic Advisor, Goldman Sachs (And The NY Fed) Really Think
When
it comes to Glenn Hubbard, the man needs no introduction, at least to
those who have watched the Charles Ferguson seminal movie 'Inside Job.'
Indeed, the extensive connections of the Dean of the Columbia school
of business to the financial industry is well known, a fact which
served as the basis of Ferguson's question: just how corrupt is
America's elite educational establishment, and just how much of a factor
in the perpetuation of the status quo is Wall Street's puppet control
over each generation of rising financial and economic thinkers. For
those who are unaware, Hubbard also happens to be presidential
candidate Mitt Romney's top economic advisor. The reason why Hubbard has
suddenly made the headlines, is because of his overnight statement
that contrary to what the potential future president has said, namely
that Bernanke's days would be numbered under a Romney presidency, and
that the Fed would be audited, Glenn has taken the other side of this
argument, and told Reuters that Bernanke should "get every
consideration" to stay beyond January 2014, when Ben's term expires. But
why? Well, for the answer to this particular question, we have to go
back to that long ago year 2004, when Glenn Hubbard together with
current Fed president, and former chief Goldman chief economist Bill
Dudley, authored a white paper bearing the Goldman sachs logo, titled "How Capital Markets Enhance Economic Performance and Facilitate Job Creation." In a word: for Mr. Hubbard (as well as for Mr. Dudley, Goldman Sachs, and thus, the New York Fed) it is all about the capital markets.Euro Optimism Surges, A Greek Tax Revolt Flares Up: It’s Decision Time
Israel's Iran Strike Routes
The jury is still out whether Israel will or will not attack Iran, despite the endless and relentless (dis)information in the media from all sides, and certainly when such an attack might happen, but if it did take place, these are all the logistically possible formats what an airborne attack could look like.
The Stock Market Is An "Attractive Nuisance" And Should Be Closed
In tort law, an attractive nuisance is any potentially hazardous object or condition that is likely to attract the naive and unwary, i.e. children. A classic example is an abandoned swimming pool half-filled with fetid water. The stock market is demonstrably an "attractive nuisance" and should be closed immediately. It should never be reopened unless these conditions can be met: 1) All shares must be owned for at least four hours 2) All trading must be executed by humans on a transparent exchange where all trading activity (and open orders) is visible to all participants 3) Intervention in the market by the Federal Reserve or any Central State agency or agents is against the law. If you insist on putting money at risk in the stock market, be aware that you are playing a rigged roulette wheel and thus you are a mark. You might win, or the entire game might collapse in a rotten heap of lies and corruption. Just remember that the market is ruled by parasites who need to keep their hosts (investors) alive so they can continue to feed off them (i.e. biotrophic parasites). If the hosts all leave the market, the parasites will have only themselves to feed on, and they will quickly expire.
Video: The Stock Market Prefers Obama
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 46 minutes ago
Topics: 2012 Election, deficits, Ben Bernanke;
Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
CNBC Video: Considering Russia As An Investment
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
"I am starting to consider Russia as an investment for the first time in my
life."
Related: Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX)
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful
international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New
York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The
Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*
New rules expose bigger funding gaps for public pensions
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
Whiles states such as Illinois punt on pension reform due to endless
political bickering, new rules put forth by Moody’s rating agency expose
even bigger funding gaps. Moody’s proposed new rules expose the generous
accounting practices used to mask an estimated $2.2 trillion state and
municipality funded gap. Yeah, that’s right, $2.2 trillion gap. Illinois’s
troubles are no isolated...
[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other
content, and more! ]]
11-mile stretch of Mississippi River closed
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
We're already seeing a significant economic impact from the drought of
2012. If we don't get some steady rain throughout the Midwest, many of the
great waterways of the US will be greatly diminished or shut down. The
Mississippi river is a main artery of commerce in the United States. If
its capacity declines, or even worse temporarily shuts down, the tonnage of
materials...
[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other
content, and more! ]]
Red Flag In Muni Bonds
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago
Not everything Buffett decision raises a red flag. Berkshire Hathaway (BK)
accumulated a whooping 130 million ounces of silver between 1997 and 2006
from $4.50 to $6 per ounce. This was nearly 37% of the world’s supply at
the time. BK complete liquidation of its silver position was considered a
red flag in 2006; Silver has risen nearly five times in value since 2006. A
growing number of...
[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other
content, and more! ]]Spot The Odd One Out
Europe
just can't make its mind up this morning. Some chatter of a Fed
adviser's report of more investigation into QE3 spurred USD weakness and
implicit EUR strength which stands in the face of a weakening European
credit and equity market today...50 Non-Gray Shaded Years Of Healthcare Spending
In
the past 50 years, the way health care is financed has changed, with
private payers and public insurance paying for more care. The California Healthcare Foundation has created this excellent interactive graphic shows who paid for the nation's health care and how much it's costs have shifted since 1960. The tree-map provides an intriguing exposition of the 'relative costs' but as The Economist adds, with regard the 'absolute costs': American healthcare costs increased by roughly 100 times, from $27 billion in 1960 to $2.6 trillion in 2010.Obama's Teleprompters
The topic of Obama and his teleprompters (one of which was stolen a year ago, causing a public appearance delay) has been so pervasive in the "counterculture" that it led to the creation of the term TOTUS. But it wasn't until today that TOTUS is now officially part of the mainstream media lexicon courtesy of this slideshow via Reuters, which should explain just who pulls the strings.
Syria And Iran Dominos Lead To World War
Syria and Iran are, in a way, the first dominos in a long chain of terrible events.
This chain, as chaotic as it seems, leads to only one end result:
Third world status for almost every country on the planet, including
the U.S., leaving the financial institutions, like monetary grim
reapers, to swoop in and gather up the pieces that remain to be
fashioned into a kind of Frankenstein economy. A fiscal golem. A
global monstrosity that removes all sovereignty whether real or imagined
and centralizes the decision making processes of humanity into the
hands of a morally bankrupt few. The only people celebrating at the end of the calamitous hostilities will be the hyper-moneyed power addicted .01%,
who will celebrate their global coup in private, laughing as the rest
of the world burns itself out, and comes begging them for help.The New Jersey Jobs Neutron Bomb
And the payroll propaganda was going so well until... New Jersey happened. As the chart below shows, in the month of July the state, arguably the Tristate area's most employer friendly, saw a sequential drop of 12,000 jobs, which was the largest one month drop since June 2009. Outlier? Or the harbinger of things to come at the national level? We will likely not now for sure until after the presidential election at which point the endless data fudging and manipulation finally ends.
The Eurhopium Runs Out As Spain Has Biggest Drop In 3 Weeks
Spain's IBEX equity index is down 2% today
- the largest drop in three weeks - after touching the 200DMA on
Monday and turning down (-3.3%). The equity market - which appears to
be trading like nothing more than an upside call on any potential for
survivability (and is 'helped' by a short-selling ban) - remains
notably rich to its relatively less-ebullient sovereign bond market -
which suggests a minimum downside of 6-7% more - just to shake off the exuberance. Yes, the short-end has done better, roll risk aside, but today 2Y is 9bps wider as the 5Y CDS is 13bps wider and 10Y spread 15bps wider. Is Draghi's 'Eurhopium' dream wearing off?
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I'm PayPal Verified'Anti-Goldilocks' And The Fed-Equities Nexus
Some
in the markets think that the Fed effectively targets equity prices,
meaning that to predict Fed policy, one merely needs to track the US
stock market. There is a curious circularity to this view,
however: the Fed will not launch QE3 so long as stock prices are high,
yet the stock market is high because it anticipates QE3.
BofAML's chart-of-the-day is intrguingly similar to our 'QE Hopeyness'
chart as it shows that stock and bond prices have decoupled since the
summer, as QE3 expectations overwhelmed the weaker macroeconomic data
to buoy equities. Now that recent data have improved, yields have risen
- but so too have stocks. This "heads I win, tails you lose" aspect of
stock prices rising regardless of the macro backdrop, BofAML believes,
makes them a far less useful signal for Fed officials. Moreover, it
creates the risk that the equity market could sell off after the 12-13
September FOMC meeting if the Fed disappoints. Right now, however, we
are in an anti-Goldilocks period in which the data are too hot for
clear-cut Fed easing, but too cold to support a sustained rebound —
anything but "just right".Dollar Shortage Hits Highest Number Of European Banks In Six Months
This morning's update on the ECB's FX swap usage confirmed what those who care about this kind of stuff already know: the USD shortage in Europe, all Libor and other manipulated and fraudulent signs to the contrary, is getting worse: in the week starting August 23, the number of banks demanding a 7 day USD swap with the NY Fed, and intermediated by the ECB, rose to 12, or the highest since February, while the amount requested was $8.5 billion, or the second highest in 2012 so far. In other words, while everyone knows the EUR interbank market in Europe is slammed shut, most likely in perpetuity, courtesy of the trillions in EURs raining from the ECB, it is now once again time for the USD market to implode, something it last did in the beginning of 2012 when the advent of the short-term benefit from LTRO 1 and 2 fixed the funding situation, albeit briefly.
LCH.Clearnet Accepts ‘Loco London’ Gold As Collateral Next Tuesday
Gold’s remonetisation in the international financial and monetary system continues. LCH.Clearnet, the world's leading independent clearing house, said yesterday that it will accept gold as collateral for margin cover purposes starting in just one week - next Tuesday August 28th. LCH.Clearnet is a clearing house for major international exchanges and platforms, as well as a range of OTC markets. As recently as 9 months ago, figures showed that they clear approximately 50% of the $348 trillion global interest rate swap market and are the second largest clearer of bonds and repos in the world. In addition, they clear a broad range of asset classes including commodities, securities, exchange traded derivatives, CDS, energy and freight. The development follows the same significant policy change from CME Clearing Europe, the London-based clearinghouse of CME Group Inc. (CME), announced last Friday that it planned to accept gold bullion as collateral for margin requirements on over-the-counter commodities derivatives. It is interesting that both CME and now LCH.Clearnet Group have both decided to allow use of gold as collateral next Tuesday - August 28th. It suggests that there were high level discussions between the world’s leading clearing houses and they both decided to enact the measures next Tuesday. It is likely that they are concerned about ‘event’ risk, systemic and monetary risk and about a Lehman Brothers style crisis enveloping the massive, opaque and unregulated shadow banking system.Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: August 22
European bourses are down at the North American crossover, all ten sectors in the red, on thin volumes and a distinct lack of data and news flow from the EU and the UK. The risk-off tone in part attributed to the much wider than expected Japanese trade deficit for July, whose exports also fell the most in six months, raising investor concern once again that Asian economy as a whole is stalling. Elsewhere, investor caution over the Greek debt crisis is once again mounting, as EU’s Juncker visits Athens today to meet with the Greek PM Samaras. Overnight it was reported that Greece would present EUR 13.5bln in budget cuts today, higher than the previous EUR 11.5bln, and whilst the country is not asking for more money, Samaras might request more time to implement them. Lawmakers in Netherlands remain critical of providing more aid for the country and continue to push for more reforms, such as spending cuts and privatization, with the Dutch Finance Minister de Jaeger commenting earlier that it is not a good idea for Greece to get more time.Frontrunning: August 22
- Merkel's Dilemma: Risk Euro Zone or Her Government (WSJ)... as first suggest by ZH 2 months ago, with only one resolution: referendum
- Russia warns West over Syria after Obama threats (Reuters)
- Consider keeping Bernanke, Romney adviser Glenn Hubbard says (Reuters)... Glenn Hubbard is the star of the movie Inside Job
- Spain Deficit Goals at Risk as Cuts Consensus Fades (Bloomberg)
- Czech Austerity Revolt Threatens Cabinet as Slump Bites (Bloomberg)
- Greek cuts to be deeper than trailed (FT)
- Akin rebuffs Romney, Republican calls to quit Senate race (Reuters)
- Obama Leads Romney in Poll Showing Disdain for Congress (Bloomberg)
- Greece needs more time to reform, PM Samaras tells paper (Reuters)
- UK banks face scandal over toxic insurance products (Reuters)
- Iceland Shelves Monetary Tightening as Krona Seen Appreciating (Bloomberg)
- India Considers $35 Billion Debt Revamp After Biggest Blackout (Bloomberg)
Overnight Sentiment: Back To Zombie Mode
Hopes that today may finally see an increase in trading volatility and volume following yesterday's reversal session will likely be dashed as the event wasteland on the horizon continues for the third day in a row. As DB explains, the FOMC meeting minutes and Juncker’s visit to Athens are likely the two main sources for key headlines today. While backward looking and certainly predating Lockhart's hawkish comments from yesterday, the FOMC minutes today are expected to shed further light on the kind of policy currently under consideration and the economic conditions required before easing is warranted. One thing that will not be discussed is the circularity of launching more QE even as gas prices have never been higher on this day in history, soy and corn are back at all time highs, and the market trading at multi-year highs. As repeatedly explained before, the option for the FOMC include pushing out the targeted exit date for fed funds, providing “exit guidance” on balance sheet measures (i.e. asset sales), various mixes of additional balance sheet expansion (including the possibility of an open-ended QE program) and cutting interest on reserves. It is virtually certain that none of these will be enacted at the Jackson Hole meeting in one week, 2 months ahead of the presidential election, but hope springs eternal.Today’s Items:
The Russians, Chinese, and any thinking
person are not falling for the Obama hate, lies, and threats when it
comes to Syria. They are not going to fall for a Libya repeat and have
drawn a line in the sand. With EU countries dependent upon Russian
natural gas, Obama may as well forget about both a NATO and UN cover on
this kinetic action as well.
The Greek prime minister has spent weeks
searching under cushions of couches trying to come up with the 11.5
billion euros needed to satisfy international conditions for emergency
aid; however, German politicians, who, like Merkel, have their
reputations on the line, have become more upset when they heard that the
shortfall may be nearly 14 billion euros. In short, stick a fork in
Greece, it is done.
Even if the German High Court finds that
there is a way to support the ESM, Germany with a GDP of $3.5 trillion
does not have the capital, resources, or the assets to support the rest
of Europe. It is a 90% bet that the ECB cannot do anything substantive
without the support of Germany and Germany will not keep handing Greece
money forever.
Eric Sprott, who oversees PSLV, has been
saying that once deep pockets starts stacking silver, silver prices will
sky rocket. Well, it now turns out that China may be beginning to look
at stacking physical silver. See, they can spend billions and billions
of dollars for silver and this kind of money chasing such a limited
asset like silver. Well, if this is true, you better be hang on because
the rocket has just been ignited.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence
Summers should get the Master Of the Obvious Award with his assertion
that government will only get bigger regardless who wins in the November
election. Hell, Obama and Romney are essentially cut from a similar
cloth that only government has all the solutions. Obama, being big
government is all but in your face and the fact that Romeny was governor
of ultra-liberal Massachusetts should be a major clue here folks.
Five years since the start of the
financial crisis, taxpayers would still be forced to foot the bill
should more banks fail. Reforms were supposed to be in place; however,
no one is holding their breath. The primary reasons, is that
politicians, unlike those in Iceland, do what the bankers tell them.
When the derivatives go bust, so will the banks, and any assets held by
those banks, like your checking and savings account.
At a pay rate of $29,245 a year, the broke city of Detroit employs a horseshoer
in the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department. Are there horses? No, but
his job is safe because union rules prohibit the elimination of
positions. On top of this, the horseshoer position also receives about
$27,000 in additional benefits. Let’s give a round of applause for Union
rules folks because this profession may make a serious comeback in the
motor city.
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