Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Catching The "Silver Crusher" Algorithm In The Act

There was a time when catching the silver "whack-a-mole" algo, or process, or intervention, or manipulation, or whatever one wants to call it, in action was a myth: an urban legend, perpetuated by silver conspiracy theorists. Until today that is. Courtesy of Nanex we now have direct evidence of just what the reflexive market (in which derivative products such as ETFs influence underlying assets) goes to town by taking silver to the woodshed at a whopping 75,000 times per second! From the broken market sleuths at Nanex:  "On March 20, 2012 at 13:22:33, the quote rate in the ETF symbol SLV sustained a rate exceeding 75,000/sec (75/ms) for 25 milliseconds. Nasdaq quotes lagged other exchanges by about 50 milliseconds. Nasdaq quotes even lagged their own trades -- a condition we have jokingly referred to as fantaseconds." Translation: so desperate was the desire to crush silver at precisely 13:22;33, that the Nasdaq order flow directive ended up moving faster than light. Frankly, we don't know about you, but when someone is willing to bend the laws of relativity, just to get a cheaper price in silver, to perpetuate a failing monetary system or for any other reason, we quietly step aside...





Deutsche Dumps Dodd - How Germany's Biggest Bank Ran Circles Around The Fed

Why are we not surprised at the fact, as reported by the WSJ, that Deutsche Bank AG changed the legal structure of its huge U.S. subsidiary to shield it from new regulations that would have required the German bank to pump new capital into the U.S. arm. The bank on Feb. 1 reorganized its U.S. subsidiary, known as Taunus Corp., so that it is no longer classified as a 'bank-holding company' (BHC). The technical change has important consequences. Taunus—which at the end of last year had about $354 billion of assets and 8,652 employees, making it one of the largest U.S. banking companies—won't have to comply with a provision of the U.S. Dodd-Frank regulatory-overhaul law that essentially forces the local arms of non-U.S. banks to meet the same capital requirements that American banks fact. A provision of the Dodd-Frank Act was going to require Deutsche Bank to infuse Taunus, which for years operated with thin capital cushions, with what executives feared could be as much as $20 billion. Taunus is no longer a bank-holding company and won't have to comply with the tougher capital rules, even though Taunus still houses Deutsche Bank's U.S. investment bank, making it unclear what jurisdiction the Fed will have to intervene in the investment-banking arm if it has concerns about how the unit is being run or whether it has adequate capital buffers. So much for all that systemic risk control and lessons learned as hey-presto - everything is sidestepped as the farce continues.





Important Mark Grant showing 140% Debt to GDP for Italy/Iran's Ultimatum/Spain's economy in turmoil/European bond yields rise


Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Before beginning with this commentary, I have seen a lot of needless attacks from certain readers and I have received a lot of emails that these comments should be moderated. I have always believed in free speech and thus I don't remove these comments no matter the persuasion.  I will warn you however, their emphasis relies heavily on the paper gold/silver




Futures Exhibit Peculiar Ungreen Color On 5th Consecutive Month Of Chinese PMI Contraction

Moments ago the Chinese PMI as tracked by HSBC/Market (not to be confused with the other PMI, tracked by China itself, which will likely show expansion, like last month), came and printed at 48.1, down from 49.6, and representing a 5th consecutive monthly contraction for the Chinese economy. Whether this means that China will promptly unleash more easing, or will simply wait to import some of Bernanke's own QEasy cooking, remains to be seen. What is far more shocking is that futures are indicating some very odd, ungreen color. It is on the tip of our tongue, but we can't quite place it... We are trying to think back to the last time futures were bathed in this particular shade of non-green, and can't - after all it was banned by the Chairsatan himself. We can only assume that the algos responsible for ramping the futures up are currently on their oil change break.





1001 Moonless Kinetic Nights: Presenting The Windows Of Opportunity For An Iranian Attack


Following last Friday's majority vote by the Israel Security Council authorizing Iranian "action" when required, answering the "if", the only open question remains "when." As it turns out, based on the following analysis by Rapidan Group, there are only 10 or so distinct 10 day New Moon windows for the remainder of 2012. If one removes the sandstorm prone months of April, July and September, there are 7 periods in which a military strike is realistic. Also CVN 65 is moving at a snail's pace and is just now approaching the Straits of Gibraltar.  Since any action will likely not take place unless 3 aircraft carriers are in the vicinity, and because the ICE yesterday instituted ultra-short term trading spike curbs in crude, starting April 1, one can likely eliminate the immediately proximal March 17-27 window. Which leaves six. Our advice would be to buy up OTM calls in Brent in the days just ahead of the start of any such window, as any "surprise" attack will have a uplifting impact on all combustible assets, doubly so for levered ones.




Presenting The American Sweatshop: An Infographic Of The Online Retail Warehouse Temp Job

One of the biggest surprise stories of the past several months, in addition to economic activity skewing record warm weather, and the New Normal seasonal adjustments (which as Albert Edwards noted earlier are giving data an upward bias for each of the past three years), is the consistently "better than expected" jobs numbers. There is one problem: as discussed previously, the rising jobs are purely a quantity over quality trade off, as every month more and more temp jobs take the place of permanent ones, especially those of former professionals from the FIRE sector. In fact, in January temp jobs soared by the most on record, and the total number of temp workers was just shy of all time highs. Ironically, as this happened, discretionary online retail companies have seen their stock price soar to record highs. One of the primary drivers for this has been the increased "efficiency" at these companies' hubs - their warehouses. Which just happen to be staffed with temp workers. The following infographic presents the reality behind these American "sweatshops" - because this is the "quality" of job that is rising rapidly in the current economy (at the expense of traditional permanent jobs) to give the impression of an economic recovery. There is no point in making an ethical judgment - work conditions are as they are. Just as workers at FoxConn likely have far better conditions than their peers, at least in their view, so do these temp workers view their life as better than the alternative, which is unemployment. It is, as they say, what it is.




Obama Now Scrambles To Approve Transcanada Pipeline... Or At Least Half Of It; Environmentalists Furious

What a difference two months of record high gas prices make. After Obama unceremoniously killed the Keystone XL pipeline proposal in January, and has since seen his popularity rating slide in inverse proportion to the surge in gas prices, which as noted yesterday have now passed $4 (still quite a bit better than Europe's $9.81 average/gallon), he is now actively seeking to fast-track its approval. Or at least half of it. Per Reuters: "President Barack Obama will issue a memo on Thursday directing federal agencies to prioritize permitting of TransCanada's southern leg of the Keystone oil pipeline, a senior White House official said on Wednesday. With his Republican opponents hammering away at the president over high gasoline prices, Obama will visit Cushing, Oklahoma on Thursday to promote his energy policies, which include support for the southern leg of the pipeline." In the meantime, enviromentalists just realized they were Corzined.




In The News Today

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is a mindset in both law and economics that the US is the sun of this universe.
How about Britain warning the USA to investigate 9/11 put activity?

American FBI warns UK police on News Corp’s hacking probe
The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has warned the Metropolitan Police against dereliction of duty regarding their investigation into a major phone-hacking scandal involving Rupert Murdoch’s US-based media empire, the News Corporation.
The FBI has warned Scotland Yard that it is “prepared to step in” if the British police fails to carry out a full-scale investigation into phone hacking, reported the Independent on Sunday.
“The FBI made it perfectly clear that if the British police drop the ball on this they will pick it up and run with it,” a legal source told the newspaper.
The FBI has access to any piece of evidence obtained by Scotland Yard from the News Corporation. Furthermore, evidence gathered by the Leveson inquiry, set up by the British government to investigate media standards and ethics, is also being passed to the FBI.
The warning from the FBI comes as the head of Scotland Yard, Acting Commissioner Tim Godwin, said last year that the Metropolitan Police would leave “no stone unturned” in their investigation into allegations of phone hacking.
More…

 

 

It’s All About Control

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Revised)

Dear CIGAs,

Ever since the original Patriot Act was passed by Congress in 2001, American civil liberties have steadily shrunk and government control has steadily grown.  In a financial crisis, your bank or brokerage can severely restrict the amount of money you can withdraw from your accounts.  The government can now assassinate so-called terrorists anywhere in the world, including on U.S. soil.    Think Anwar al-Awlaki, the American-born radical Muslim cleric who was assassinated by a U.S. drone strike in September.
It can also indefinitely detain suspected terrorists without charge or due process, all thanks to the National Defense Authorization Act recently signed into law by the President.  The government can shut down a website anywhere in the world without due process, just ask Megaupload owner Kim Dotcom from New Zealand.  (Yes, that’s his real name.)
As of last Friday, President Obama has authorized the government to take just about whatever it needs in the name of national defense.   It is an Executive Order appropriately called “National Defense Resources Preparedness (NDRP).”  This allows members of Obama’s Cabinet to take resources such as livestock, water, fuel, farm equipment, vehicles, planes, boats, food and just about anything the government thinks it needs for “defense preparedness.”   I am just skimming the surface here as there are many more details in the order.  (Click here for the complete Executive Order — National Defense Resources Preparedness – NDRP.)  Many are calling this a setup for peacetime martial law.  After reading the Executive Order, I don’t see how anyone could disagree with this statement.
My question is why?  If all that happened was an extension of the Patriot Act in 2011, I might not worry that much (although, Congress basically traded liberty for so-called security.)   But when you look at several of the government’s big power grabbing moves, you can’t help but ask what are they getting ready for?  Is it a Middle East war that will probably turn into world war?  Is it another financial meltdown worse than the one in 2008?  Or, is it all of the above?
More…

 

 

As The Drama Unfolds


My Dear Friends,

I have an observation for your consideration.
The value of a currency is not anyone’s opinion, mine or others, it is the market quote. Yes the strength of the euro is an anomaly, but what that anomaly is telling us is more important.
There may be no more important questions to answer than this.
If you do not know then it means you stop by here occasionally. I have answered this question both in print and audio interviews. If I have anything to offer you it is the constant unfolding of the drama of markets and the messages carried therein which you need to know for your own protection.
The price of this service is your attention.
Regards,
Jim

 

Jim’s Mailbox


Gentlemen,

I don’t know if you saw this already. Scary…

Regards,
CIGA Luis Ahlborn Sequeira

Click here to view 358 resignations from world banks, investment houses, and money funds…

Iran will attack to defend itself: Khamenei
CIGA Eric
The West has played the SWIFT card, but the facade of its financial system is showing obvious cracks. As the depth of West’s financial influence fades ever so slightly, so does its ability to resolve this issue through economic arm twisting. Iran is no pushover unless Russia and China can be motivated to look the other way. The real danger here is action driven by hubris.
Headline: Iran will attack to defend itself: Khamenei
(Reuters) – In the face of aggression from the United States or Israel, Iran will attack to defend itself, Iran’s most powerful figure, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday.
"We do not have nuclear weapons and we will not build them but in the face of aggression from the enemies, whether from America or the Zionist regime, to defend ourselves we will attack on the same level as the enemies attack us," Khamenei said live on television.
"Americans are making a grave mistake if they think by making threats they will destroy the Iranian nation," he said in his annual speech to mark Nowruz, the Iranian New Year.
Israel and the United States have threatened military action against Iran unless it abandons nuclear activities which the West suspects are intended to develop nuclear weapons.
Further talks between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries are expected to take place next month in an attempt to reach a compromise deal.
Source: news.yahoo.com
Headline: Pentagon war game forecasts U.S. would be pulled into a new war if Israel strikes Iran
A classified Pentagon war game this month forecast that an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would likely draw the United States into a wider regional war in which hundreds of American forces could be killed, the New York Times reported Tuesday.
The war games’ results have "raised fears among top American planners that it may be impossible to preclude American involvement in any escalating confrontation with Iran," the Times Mark Mazzetti and Thom Shanker wrote.
Defense experts said the reported war games results are another attempted warning signal to Israel not to go it alone or risk harming relations with the United States.
"The apparent results of the war game reported by the Times suggest that it will be much more difficult than Israeli leaders assume to keep the United States out of the conflict," former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Colin Kahl told Yahoo News by email. "In the retaliatory spasm following an Israeli strike, the odds that Iranian actions and miscalculations could drag the United States military are substantial."
Source: news.yahoo.com
More…




Jim,

Here below is an interesting report from PwC stating 2012 will see record M&A volumes and values in the global mining sector.
And like you told us, Western mega mining companies will find themselves competing for deals with non-miners such as sovereign wealth funds, steelmakers and plays from other industrial verticals, and "a new class of growth world buyer."
This should be very good for Gold shares!
"In their analysis, PwC observed that traditional miners, steelmakers and other industrial verticals will increasingly seek out acquisitions because of continued supply-side challenges. "
PwC states that while the western mining sector has not yet seen significant capital investment from sovereign wealth funds and private equity funds, "there are some anecdotal signs that the tide is turning." For instance, Qatar Holdings has invested in and helped finance European Goldfields company. Early March, they bought 10% of the Greek gold mine European Goldfields with an option to 15%. The total planned investment in the company is $1 Billion.
Exactly how you stated many times, recommendations to western miners in order for them to adapt to this new paradigm includes, among others:
1."Pursue multi-faceted partnership with governments and other miners."
2."As appropriate, revise your negotiating approach by appreciating that first world standards may be foreign in these markets."
3."Contemplate what your exit options will be. Is a sale to another strategic buyer possible if partnering with a local firm/government? What kinds of deal activity is the region seeing?"
In their report, PwC forecasts an "African Renaissance" as Africa emerges "as one of the most important mining M&A geographies of 2012."

Best regards,
CIGA Christopher

Western mega miners face stiff competition from non-miners in global M&A-PwC
A new class of growth world buyer with deep pockets, expertise in frontier markets, and more adaptability may give western mega-miners serious competition, a PwC study suggests.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted:  Tuesday , 06 Mar 2012

PwC Global Mining Team predicts that "2012 will see record M&A volumes and values in the global mining sector."
"With over $105 billion in cash, pent-up demand for new projects, rising production costs and declining developed world reserves, miners will seek out targets to build scales and cost efficiencies," said PwC in their annual Global Mining 2011 Deals Review & 2012 Outlook.
However, western mega mining companies will find themselves competing for deals with non-miners such as sovereign wealth funds, steelmakers and plays from other industrial verticals, and "a new class of growth world buyer."

That new class of growth world buyer, "with deep pockets, deep expertise in frontier markets and the flexibility to operate under the principles of state capitalism are likely to be formidable competitors to the über miners from the West in the M&A arena," PwC analysts cautioned.
Meanwhile, competition for deals will become problematic for the mining moguls that dominated the 20th Century, who will find themselves struggling to "make M&A in the new world fit into western M&A formulas."

"We expect this challenge will prompt a return of mergers of equals between western mining titans, eager to add scale in low-risk and familiar geographies," PwC suggested. "Others may take the route of re-evaluating their approaches to risk assessment, as high-risk, unfamiliar geographies, like Sub Saharan Africa, become an increasingly important destination for investment."
More…





Jim

Mama Mia!

CIGA Jack

Italy to launch Skynet tax collection system after 197% YoY borrowing increase
Simon Black, Sovereign Man
March 21, 2012
Santiago, Chile

This is something out of an Orwellian science fiction movie.
The Italian tax authorities are now field testing a new system called ‘redditometro’, a database that automatically collects and analyzes taxpayers’ tax data vs. spending data based on automated collection of credit card and banking information.
For example, if the credit card reports show that you have an expensive gym membership… or perhaps you bought too fancy of a mobile phone, then the system will flag you if your annual tax liability isn’t commensurate with such spending habits.
Big Brother would be proud.
Preliminary results showed that a full 20% of Italian taxpayers will be initially flagged, much to the delight of agency director Attilio Befera. According to Befera, “We have €120 billion of tax evasion, and to cope with this emergency, we need to take emergency measures…”
More…




Ron Paul: I’ll Unite Republicans & Democrats to Cut Spending

 

Gov’t Study Asks: What Happens if Someone Nukes D.C.?

[Ed. Note: A criminal government studying the impact of a nuclear detonation in the nation's capital. Great. Just great.]
from, theblaze.com:
Have you ever wondered what would happen if Washington, DC, suffered a nuclear attack? Apparently, some of DC’s higher-ups were wondering the same thing and, like everything else they’re curious about, they decided to conduct a study.
Turns out, 10-kiloton nuke would be very, very bad for D.C., Northern Virginia, and Maryland (shocker, I know).
“The study—‘National Capital Region: Key Response Planning Factors for the Aftermath of Nuclear Terrorism’—simulates and prognosticates a nuclear strike at 16th and K Streets, the heart of downtown DC and only a couple blocks from the White House. The kind of spot a terrorist would want to plant a bomb,” Gizmodo’s Sam Biddle writes.
However, as easy as it is to snicker at the study’s findings (What? D.C. would be destroyed? You don’t say!), the report also “paints a horrifying, incredibly detailed radioactive portrait” of what would most likely happen should someone detonate the nation’s capitol.
Read More @ Theblaze.com

 

 

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