Greek
PSI looks doubtful/Major bond holders abort the bond swap/Ireland in
need of a second bailout/Bourses around the globe in the glue today/
Gold and silver fall/
Those
curious in tonight's episode of soothing political theater which gives
the peasantry the illusion they are in control of something, anything,
can quench their thirst for GOP primary irrelevancy at the following
real time update (as we learn Newt Gingrich has already been proclaimed
winner of the Georgia Primary, and Romney gets Virginia where the only
other candidates was Ron Paul). As a reminder, as it has been said
that the only candidate who will lower America's debt during his tenure will get no coverage, and certainly no votes, so it shall be. Diebold approves of this message.
For all the drama surrounding Wall Street bonuses in a year in which Wall Street profitability was cut in half to just $13.5 billion, the worst since the collapse and bailout of 2008 and 2009 (and compared to $27.6 billion in 2010 and $61.4 billion in 2009), one would think that the average banker would see zero bonus in 2011, or in some cases, especially if they worked at a Greek bank, be told to pay for the privilege of working. The truth is that according to official data from the NY City Comptroller, the average bonus dipped by just 13% in 2011, declining modestly from $138,940 to $121.150. In fact, while a number of large firms announced reductions in cash bonuses for 2011 (with several firms reporting reductions in the range of 20 to 30 percent), personal income tax collections indicate a smaller decline in the overall cash bonus pool. A big reason for this is deferred bonuses from prior years hitting this year's payroll and thus smoothing the impact. Still, bankers being forward looking people, are looking forward and probably not liking what they see. Yet while 2011 data for comprehensive pay is still not available, in 2010 the average salary rose by 16% to $361,180 as more firms shifted to a base-heavy comp structure. Indicatively, the average Wall Street salary is 5.5 times higher than the rest of the private sector at $66,100. And no matter how one feels about them, one thing is true: the New York economy would founder without taxes paid by bankers: "the securities industry in New York City accounted for 23.5 percent of all wages paid in the private sector despite accounting for only 5.3 percent of all private sector jobs" and more importantly, "each job created (or lost) in the securities industry leads to the creation (or loss) of almost two additional jobs in other industries in the City. OSC also estimates that each new Wall Street job creates one additional job elsewhere in New York State, mostly in the City’s suburbs." Hence - Wall Street's bonuses have become "Too Big Too Fall", as the entire economy of NY City and the state is now held captive by Wall Street's exorbitant bonuses.
After
months of incessant rises in average gasoline prices in the US, we
note that prices actually fell today. The dramatic 0.3 cent drop in
Regular (0.4c in Mid and 0.2c in Premium) may be just the implicit tax
cut that the stagnant-wage-growth deleveraging-consumer needs to spur
the next leg up in the new normal recovery that is priced into equities.
The most profitable business of the future will be producing Space Available and For Lease signs.
Betting on the intelligence of the American consumer has been a losing
bet for decades. They will continue to swipe that credit card at the
local 7-11 to buy those Funions, jalapeno cheese stuffed pretzels with a
side of cheese dipping sauce, cartons of smokes, and 32 ounce Big
Gulps of Mountain Dew until the message on the credit card machine
comes back DENIED. There will be crescendo of
consequences as these stores are closed down. The rotting hulks of
thousands of Sears and Kmarts will slowly decay; blighting the suburban
landscape and beckoning criminals and the homeless. Retailers will be
forced to lay-off hundreds of thousands of workers. Property taxes paid
to local governments will dry up, resulting in worsening budget
deficits. Sales taxes paid to state governments will plummet, forcing
more government cutbacks and higher taxes. Mall owners and real estate
developers will see their rental income dissipate. They will then
proceed to default on their loans. Bankers will be stuck with billions
in loan losses, at least until they are able to shift them to the
American taxpayer – again. No politician, media pundit, Federal Reserve
banker, retail CEO, or willfully ignorant mindless consumer wants to
admit the truth that the last three decades of debt delusion are coming
to a tragic bitter end. The smarmy acolytes of Edward Bernays on Wall
Street and in corporate America have successfully used propaganda and
misinformation to lure generations of weak minded people into debt
servitude. But, at the end of the day, you need cash to service the
debt. Mind control doesn’t pay the bills. We will eventually return to
normal, just not the normal many had in mind.
As Iran tensions mount, even the US Military needs a break and where better than The Hamptons to practice desert-driving skills? As SouthamptonPatch notes,
a military spokesman said M1117s that drove through Southampton, East
Hampton and Southold were not on the East End for a funeral, as
previously reported. Perhaps its nothing more suspicious than a cabal of
FX traders and hedge fund managers building their own fortification to
protect their champagne but we must all appreciate them filling up
with gas and helping our economy recover (credit or debit?).
Something
interesting happened when the ECB announced last week that its balance
sheet was about to rise by €1 trillion gross, and hit a record €3
trillion net earlier today: the EURUSD barely budged. Why? Because as a
reminder, the key driving relationship for relative risk performance
of 2012 as we forecast back in December is
the correlation of the Fed and the ECB's balance sheets, and the
EURUSD, respectively, because while we may pretend that there is still
alpha in this joke of a market, the truth is that in this new normal
only beta matters (the more lever the better), and the only beta that
matters is that generated by relative USD strength/weakness. In this
context, we bring back readers to the chart that may be the only one
that matters: the cross-correlation of the Fed/ECB total assets, and
the EURUSD spot, where the first thing that stands out is that the pair
should be 1000 pips lower at least. And yet it isn't. The reason for
that is that the FX market is actively expecting, despite all rhetoric
otherwise, an injection from the Fed. What is convenient is that the
chart allows us to calculate how much the expected QE3 will be: since
the absolute value of the Fed/ECB size (currency invariant) is now
0.9685m or the lowest in history, the ratio would have to raise to 1.18
for EURUSD asset implied parity. Which means the Fed's balance sheet would have to increase by about $650-700 billion promptly.
We
have been warning that the stocks of the major US financials are on
weak ground for a few weeks as credit (and implied vol) markets for the
TBTFs had been underperforming notably. Today saw the financials ETF, XLF, have the largest down day in three months (dropping
over two standard deviations), breaking its uptrend and heading for
its 50DMA. As volumes in stocks and stock futures surged to year-highs,
we note that the major financials were much worse hit than the broad ETF,
roughly separated into 3 groups: Good (JPM, WFC), Bad (GS, C, BAC,
GE), and Ugly (MS). While the market is 'only' down around 2%, it is
worth noting that Financials and Energy stocks are back at five-week lows, while Industrials and Materials are back at two-month lows
as the growthium hope fades. Risk was very highly correlated on the
downswing today and along with significantly higher than average volume
suggests more broad de-risking than idiosyncratic profit-taking as some
would like to suggest. Commodities made headlines as Silver is now down
over 5% on the week but Gold stabilized for much of the post-European
close session around $1675. The vol term structure snapped flatter today,
catching short-dated premium sellers fingers as it tends to, ripping to
its flattest in 3 weeks as VIX jumped almost 3 vols to around 21% (back
above its 50DMA for the first time since Thanksgiving), with its
biggest rise in three months.
As
gold pulls back under $1700, back to 6 week lows (and Silver collapses
in its high beta way, reverting back in line with Gold), Morgan
Stanley says 'Stay Long Gold'. The recent sell-off
notwithstanding, they remain bullish through 2012 and while the current
USD strength is a headwind, they expect aggressive Fed action (and
other global central banks), including the likely adoption of QE3 in
1H12, to be gold positive. Deciphering the demand and supply dynamics, they forecast prices to rise on a quarterly average basis through 4Q13 as the four pillars of their bull market thesis persist.
Next,
it is turn for the families of the thousands of people whose money was
stolen by MF Global (and apparently Fabrice Tourre, since nobody at MF
Global was responsible for anything... or else it just vaporized) to
send in their letters.
If anyone is confused about what the real issue in Europe is, the following two charts should explain it all.
In what can only be the most ironic of stories today, Reuters is reporting that Citigroup has become the first financial services client for IBM's Jeopardy-playing human-cognitive 'machine' Watson.
While IBM expects the financial services segment to provide
significant revenues, we worry that Congress will enact some
protectionist policy as thousands of highly paid extrapolators analysts are suddenly outsourced to a non-eating, non-bonused, non-champagne-buying, non-tax-paying
server farm somewhere. Supposedly Watson offers a 'huge marketing edge'
as the government-owned bank is likely to use the uber-computer for
"risk management (as opposed to stock picking)" as it offers a 'more
global picture' combing through 10-Ks, prospectuses, loan performances,
and earnings quality while uncovering sentiment and news not in the
usual metrics. We look forward to the next conference call as Vikram is replaced by a Siri-Watson discussion of why TBTF exists.
Please consider making a small donation, to help cover some of the labor and costs to run this blog.
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Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 40 minutes ago
Good
evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed down $33.00 to $1673.05 today as the world perceives that
the Greek PSI bond exchange will not go through. Silver followed suit
falling by $1.25 to $32.75. Bourses around the world suffered big
losses especially when a document was released showing the true
spillover effects of a Greek default will cost around 1 to 1.3 trillion
euros. In another
Trader Dan on King World News
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 1 hour ago
This
afternoon, Eric King of King World News interviewed me to get my
thoughts on the day's market action. You can read that interview in its
entirety by clicking on the link below.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/6_Norcini_-_Gold_%26_Silver_Smashed_as_Bullion_Banks_Cover_Shorts.html
HUI down but bounces from support
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 1 hour ago
Once again the HUI has managed to attract significant buying down at the
lows signifying that the same buyers who have been busy accumulating gold
shares for the better part of the last year are still apparently willing to
add to their holdings on these dips lower in price. As long as this index
closes the week ABOVE that lower red line, we remain within a range trade.
Has the S&P 500 topped out for now?
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 1 hour ago
The S&P 500 wiped out three week' worth of gains in today's session
plunging through several support levels on the price chart. On the way
higher, the level near 1350 had been serving as selling resistance and held
the rally in check until it finally managed to break through that level
three weeks ago. Today, the former resistance level, now turned support,
failed to hold the decline in check.
I have set the chart in a KAGI Format as it is a better style in which to
locate various chart resistance and support levels in my opinion. You can
see the significance of 1350 rather easily a... more »
A Clear And Present Danger
Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 3 hours ago
*However Greece unwinds, the other PIIGS are even bigger problems that will
have to be dealt with. Unfortunately, GS and JPM will be the last ones to
take any pain from this because ultimately they are in control of the
political decision-makers. The corruption is beyond mind-blowing. I also
think it's a bad signal that the war rhetoric toward Iran is escalating
quickly. The elitists are losing control and whenever they lose control,
they start a war.*
I got a call from a buddy of mine who is in the process of moving his
family out of the country. He's here for a bit and state... more »
Only Mr. Bernanke Can Finance A War, Via Money Printing
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 4 hours ago
Say war breaks out in the Middle East or anywhere else, Mr. Bernanke will
just print even more money—they have no option... they haven't got the
money to finance a war. - *in CNBC*
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
‘Dr. Doom’ Sees Iran-Israel Clash, Says Buy Precious Metals
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 4 hours ago
Controlling the flow of oil in the Middle East is easier said than done.
Putin's high profile return in Russia is not coincidence. "The Americans
and the western powers know very well they cannot contain China
economically... but one way to contain China is to switch on and switch off
the oil tap from the Middle East," he said. "I happen to think the Middle
East will go up in flames," he...
[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other
content, and more! ]]
Huge Exodus out of RISK TRADES in Today's session
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 5 hours ago
Hedge funds algorithm's are going beserk on the sell side today with the
result that most of the commodity futures markets are getting slammed
lower. There are very few exceptions to the selling with Soybeans, Cocoa
and Natural Gas are the few commodities holding up.
The metals are getting hit particularly hard with both silver and gold
violating downside support levels on the charts. As can be expected, gold
is holding much better than silver in a risk aversion environment.
Once again the catalyst for all of this is the situation involving the
Greek debt bailout plan. Markets are w... more »
Volatility & Risk Profiles
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 7 hours ago
If you can't live with volatility, stay in bed. - *in CNBC*
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
Hollywood vs. Real America
noreply@blogger.com (Patrice Lewis) at Rural Revolution - 7 hours ago
There is a television series that's just hit the prime time called (pardon
my language) Good Christian Bitches (later modified to Good Christian
Belles after the understandable outcry). It's made by the creators of "Sex
and the City," so I guess that tells you something. We don't have
television reception so I've never seen this latest example of Hollywood
art, but I gather the basic premise is to show how Christian women are
nothing but a bunch of biblical hypocrites. Ha ha -- it's so amusing, don't
you think, to watch women be catty? And placing them in a church
environment just s... more »
As Polls Close, Follow The Super Tuesday Results
Those
curious in tonight's episode of soothing political theater which gives
the peasantry the illusion they are in control of something, anything,
can quench their thirst for GOP primary irrelevancy at the following
real time update (as we learn Newt Gingrich has already been proclaimed
winner of the Georgia Primary, and Romney gets Virginia where the only
other candidates was Ron Paul). As a reminder, as it has been said
that the only candidate who will lower America's debt during his tenure will get no coverage, and certainly no votes, so it shall be. Diebold approves of this message.Two Senior Murdoch Journalists Attempt Suicide
Murdochgate may just taken a detour into the tragic following reports that two senior Murdoch journalists have attempted suicide. MSNBC reports: "Two senior journalists working for Rupert Murdoch's News International have apparently attempted suicide as pressure mounts at the scandal-hit publisher of the now-defunct News of the World. The suicide attempts follow weeks of intense scrutiny of the role of The Sun, another Murdoch paper, in the phone-hacking scandal and police bribery case. The man and the woman, who were reportedly involved in separate incidents, were rescued in time, a friend of one of them said, according to a report Tuesday on stuff.co.nz....The two journalists who attempted suicide have been checked into the hospital, according to a report Tuesday by the Financial Times. The newspaper reported that their care is being paid for by News International. The London Evening Standard reported that other News International journalists are “terribly stressed and many are on the edge.” The company has reportedly offered psychiatric help to any journalist who wants help." While certainly sad, it is curious why one would move to such a dramatic step instead of simply putting one's belongings in a box, and walking out of the office door for good. Especially if one is innocent of anything. Just how putrid will the Murdoch spying stench be when all is revealed, and just how high up does it go in other parallel media organizations who most certainly acted in comparable ways in the pursuit for that most elusive commodity - information? And will this be the end of any near-tragic stories associated with the billionaire media mogul? Somehow we doubt it.Have Wall Street Bonuses Become Too Big To Fall?
For all the drama surrounding Wall Street bonuses in a year in which Wall Street profitability was cut in half to just $13.5 billion, the worst since the collapse and bailout of 2008 and 2009 (and compared to $27.6 billion in 2010 and $61.4 billion in 2009), one would think that the average banker would see zero bonus in 2011, or in some cases, especially if they worked at a Greek bank, be told to pay for the privilege of working. The truth is that according to official data from the NY City Comptroller, the average bonus dipped by just 13% in 2011, declining modestly from $138,940 to $121.150. In fact, while a number of large firms announced reductions in cash bonuses for 2011 (with several firms reporting reductions in the range of 20 to 30 percent), personal income tax collections indicate a smaller decline in the overall cash bonus pool. A big reason for this is deferred bonuses from prior years hitting this year's payroll and thus smoothing the impact. Still, bankers being forward looking people, are looking forward and probably not liking what they see. Yet while 2011 data for comprehensive pay is still not available, in 2010 the average salary rose by 16% to $361,180 as more firms shifted to a base-heavy comp structure. Indicatively, the average Wall Street salary is 5.5 times higher than the rest of the private sector at $66,100. And no matter how one feels about them, one thing is true: the New York economy would founder without taxes paid by bankers: "the securities industry in New York City accounted for 23.5 percent of all wages paid in the private sector despite accounting for only 5.3 percent of all private sector jobs" and more importantly, "each job created (or lost) in the securities industry leads to the creation (or loss) of almost two additional jobs in other industries in the City. OSC also estimates that each new Wall Street job creates one additional job elsewhere in New York State, mostly in the City’s suburbs." Hence - Wall Street's bonuses have become "Too Big Too Fall", as the entire economy of NY City and the state is now held captive by Wall Street's exorbitant bonuses.
Are Gas Prices Rolling Over?
After
months of incessant rises in average gasoline prices in the US, we
note that prices actually fell today. The dramatic 0.3 cent drop in
Regular (0.4c in Mid and 0.2c in Premium) may be just the implicit tax
cut that the stagnant-wage-growth deleveraging-consumer needs to spur
the next leg up in the new normal recovery that is priced into equities.Guest Post: Cause, Effects & The Fallacy Of A Return To Normalcy
The most profitable business of the future will be producing Space Available and For Lease signs.
Betting on the intelligence of the American consumer has been a losing
bet for decades. They will continue to swipe that credit card at the
local 7-11 to buy those Funions, jalapeno cheese stuffed pretzels with a
side of cheese dipping sauce, cartons of smokes, and 32 ounce Big
Gulps of Mountain Dew until the message on the credit card machine
comes back DENIED. There will be crescendo of
consequences as these stores are closed down. The rotting hulks of
thousands of Sears and Kmarts will slowly decay; blighting the suburban
landscape and beckoning criminals and the homeless. Retailers will be
forced to lay-off hundreds of thousands of workers. Property taxes paid
to local governments will dry up, resulting in worsening budget
deficits. Sales taxes paid to state governments will plummet, forcing
more government cutbacks and higher taxes. Mall owners and real estate
developers will see their rental income dissipate. They will then
proceed to default on their loans. Bankers will be stuck with billions
in loan losses, at least until they are able to shift them to the
American taxpayer – again. No politician, media pundit, Federal Reserve
banker, retail CEO, or willfully ignorant mindless consumer wants to
admit the truth that the last three decades of debt delusion are coming
to a tragic bitter end. The smarmy acolytes of Edward Bernays on Wall
Street and in corporate America have successfully used propaganda and
misinformation to lure generations of weak minded people into debt
servitude. But, at the end of the day, you need cash to service the
debt. Mind control doesn’t pay the bills. We will eventually return to
normal, just not the normal many had in mind.The Latest Hamptons' Tennant: The US Military
As Iran tensions mount, even the US Military needs a break and where better than The Hamptons to practice desert-driving skills? As SouthamptonPatch notes,
a military spokesman said M1117s that drove through Southampton, East
Hampton and Southold were not on the East End for a funeral, as
previously reported. Perhaps its nothing more suspicious than a cabal of
FX traders and hedge fund managers building their own fortification to
protect their champagne but we must all appreciate them filling up
with gas and helping our economy recover (credit or debit?). With $700 Billion In QE3 Already Priced In, Who Will Blink First?
Something
interesting happened when the ECB announced last week that its balance
sheet was about to rise by €1 trillion gross, and hit a record €3
trillion net earlier today: the EURUSD barely budged. Why? Because as a
reminder, the key driving relationship for relative risk performance
of 2012 as we forecast back in December is
the correlation of the Fed and the ECB's balance sheets, and the
EURUSD, respectively, because while we may pretend that there is still
alpha in this joke of a market, the truth is that in this new normal
only beta matters (the more lever the better), and the only beta that
matters is that generated by relative USD strength/weakness. In this
context, we bring back readers to the chart that may be the only one
that matters: the cross-correlation of the Fed/ECB total assets, and
the EURUSD spot, where the first thing that stands out is that the pair
should be 1000 pips lower at least. And yet it isn't. The reason for
that is that the FX market is actively expecting, despite all rhetoric
otherwise, an injection from the Fed. What is convenient is that the
chart allows us to calculate how much the expected QE3 will be: since
the absolute value of the Fed/ECB size (currency invariant) is now
0.9685m or the lowest in history, the ratio would have to raise to 1.18
for EURUSD asset implied parity. Which means the Fed's balance sheet would have to increase by about $650-700 billion promptly.Financials Implode As Volatility And Volume Explodes
We
have been warning that the stocks of the major US financials are on
weak ground for a few weeks as credit (and implied vol) markets for the
TBTFs had been underperforming notably. Today saw the financials ETF, XLF, have the largest down day in three months (dropping
over two standard deviations), breaking its uptrend and heading for
its 50DMA. As volumes in stocks and stock futures surged to year-highs,
we note that the major financials were much worse hit than the broad ETF,
roughly separated into 3 groups: Good (JPM, WFC), Bad (GS, C, BAC,
GE), and Ugly (MS). While the market is 'only' down around 2%, it is
worth noting that Financials and Energy stocks are back at five-week lows, while Industrials and Materials are back at two-month lows
as the growthium hope fades. Risk was very highly correlated on the
downswing today and along with significantly higher than average volume
suggests more broad de-risking than idiosyncratic profit-taking as some
would like to suggest. Commodities made headlines as Silver is now down
over 5% on the week but Gold stabilized for much of the post-European
close session around $1675. The vol term structure snapped flatter today,
catching short-dated premium sellers fingers as it tends to, ripping to
its flattest in 3 weeks as VIX jumped almost 3 vols to around 21% (back
above its 50DMA for the first time since Thanksgiving), with its
biggest rise in three months. Stay Long Gold
As
gold pulls back under $1700, back to 6 week lows (and Silver collapses
in its high beta way, reverting back in line with Gold), Morgan
Stanley says 'Stay Long Gold'. The recent sell-off
notwithstanding, they remain bullish through 2012 and while the current
USD strength is a headwind, they expect aggressive Fed action (and
other global central banks), including the likely adoption of QE3 in
1H12, to be gold positive. Deciphering the demand and supply dynamics, they forecast prices to rise on a quarterly average basis through 4Q13 as the four pillars of their bull market thesis persist.Jon Corzine's Family Responds To Accusations Against The Patriarch
Next,
it is turn for the families of the thousands of people whose money was
stolen by MF Global (and apparently Fabrice Tourre, since nobody at MF
Global was responsible for anything... or else it just vaporized) to
send in their letters.At Least 4 Greek Pension Funds, Including That Of Police, Refuse To Go Ahead With PSI
So much for Venizelos' best, final, and most importantly only deal. From Reuters: "Most Greek pension funds holding Greek sovereign debt have agreed to take part in a bond exchange to ease the country's debt burden but four have refused to do so, a Greek official said on Tuesday. The pension funds have come under pressure from workers' unions worried the writedown on Greek debt holdings will affect the viability of their funds. About eight or nine funds have agreed to take part but pension funds for journalists, police, the self-employed and hotel workers - which hold Greek debt worth 2 billion euros - have refused, the official said."Some Thoughts On 'Not Paying' Greek PSI Holdouts
As the situation in Greece plays out exactly as we expected, no matter how much confidence Merkel and Papademos believe they have in a successful PSI, we thought it worth looking at the implications of the holdouts being 'punished'. For sure, as Peter Tchir notes, confusion reigns supreme, though we are probably due for a 'China saves the world' rumor any moment now, because too many people enjoy the fact that we haven't had a 1% down day yet this year.Explaining The European €2.5 Trillion Liquidity Catch 22 Closed Loop
If anyone is confused about what the real issue in Europe is, the following two charts should explain it all.
In what can only be the most ironic of stories today, Reuters is reporting that Citigroup has become the first financial services client for IBM's Jeopardy-playing human-cognitive 'machine' Watson.
While IBM expects the financial services segment to provide
significant revenues, we worry that Congress will enact some
protectionist policy as thousands of highly paid extrapolators analysts are suddenly outsourced to a non-eating, non-bonused, non-champagne-buying, non-tax-paying
server farm somewhere. Supposedly Watson offers a 'huge marketing edge'
as the government-owned bank is likely to use the uber-computer for
"risk management (as opposed to stock picking)" as it offers a 'more
global picture' combing through 10-Ks, prospectuses, loan performances,
and earnings quality while uncovering sentiment and news not in the
usual metrics. We look forward to the next conference call as Vikram is replaced by a Siri-Watson discussion of why TBTF exists. 
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