Thursday, March 29, 2012

On Liquidity And The False Recovery

David McWilliams (of Punk Economics) is back (previous discussions here and here) and this time he takes on the the flood of liquidity and the false recovery that has been created. Starting with a discussion of gas prices and the central banks' recklessness behind it, he swiftly shifts to the 'shambles in Greece' where more debt is supposed to solve the problem of too much debt yet again. From extreme highs in Greek rates to extreme lows in rates among the major developed economies he juggles with the conundrum of injecting liquidity to reflate a bubble in order to avoid the consequences of the bursting of a bubble - brilliant (as those Guinness chaps would say) - as this merely pushes the next crash out a few more years but making it bigger and more devastating. Global Central banks have pumped $8.7tn into the banking system to 'save the world'. Saving the banks has cost more money than it cost to fight WWII, the first Gulf War, put a man on the moon, clean up after last year's Japanese Tsunami, and the entire African aid budget for the last 20 years all put together. Context is key - is it any wonder asset prices have risen since there has been so much cash looking for a new home - why hold something that is printed everyday (cash) when you can hold something that is actually running out like oil or gold. The punchline is what goes in must come out - and that means inflation - as the 'trip' of excess liquidity comes home to roost. Must watch. 




The 2012 TIME 100 Poll – VOTE NOW!

[Ed. Note: Check out who's on the front page of Time.com as one of the "leaders, artists, innovators, icons and heroes that you think are the most influential people in the world"! It's our guy, Dr. Paul! Cast your cote today. Who knows, maybe they'll even count it. ~SGT]
from Time Magazine:

The 2012 TIME 100 Poll

Cast your votes for the leaders, artists, innovators, icons and heroes that you think are the most influential people in the world. Official voting ends on Friday, April 6, and the poll winner will be included in the TIME 100 issue. The complete TIME 100 list will be chosen by our editors and revealed on TIME.com on Tuesday, April 17. More »
Read More @ Time.com




No, It Is Not Just The Chinese New Year

The one indicator which the Chinese Politburo can not fudge: power production and hence: demand, speaks volumes about the true state of China's economy.








Presenting America's Political Apathy: Voter Turnout Rate < 50%


The following chart from the OECD via Goldman, speaks volumes as to just why it is that the "democratic" process is slowly but surely completely breaking down in the US. Of virtually the entire developed world, American voter turnout is the second lowest of all countries, and only modestly higher than South Korea, but well below 50% in either case. Furthermore, since the voting population is roughly equally split along the middle in its party affiliation, it is astounding that less than 25% of America's voters set the political stage every four years. One wonders just what the source of this record apathy may be: perhaps it is that as empirical data demonstrate, neither party actually represents any longer the interest of a majority of the US voters, but merely those of corporate lobby groups and, of course, Wall Street. As such, over 50% of voting age Americans don't even bother to make it to the ballots. It may thus be only a matter of time before disenfranchised if silent majority finally says enough, rereads some of this country's founding documents, and agrees that taxation is only fair with representation. Actually never mind: since about half of America pays no taxes whatsoever, the data actually makes perfect sense. And so the pillage of what's left of the American middle class will continue, with nobody batting an eyelid, until such time as the only items left in said class' possession are various weapons of assorted muzzle velocity and other sharp and/or dull but heavy objects.







A View on Inflation & Keynesian Talking Points

CrownThomas
03/29/2012 - 23:38
 The ponzi will fail, and the economy will reset - the only question is when.

 

Scotia Transfers 600k Ounces of Silver into JP Morgan Vaults Wednesday

[Ed. Note: If JP Morgan hates silver so much, why are they acquiring it in physical form hand over fist?]
from Silver Doctors:

It appears that Scotia Mocatta’s silver vaults are currently the emergency silver reserves for our friends at alleged silver manipulators HSBC and JPMorgan.   Tuesday we reported that 600k ounces of silver had left Scotia’s vaults only to appear in HSBC’s.
Well, the 3-card monte continued in COMEX silver warehouses Wednesday, as Scotia Mocatta reported a withdrawal of 605,601.130 ounces out of registered vaults, and JP Morgan listed receipt of an identical 605,601.130 ounces into eligible vaults!
Apparently Blythe had a fire or 2 to put out at the end of the March delivery month for silver.
Read More @ SilverDoctors.com




MF Global Customer & Fund Manager on JP Morgan and the Goldman Connection

from CapitalAccount:

Yesterday, the MF Global collapse took center stage on Capitol Hill. The threat of crony capitalism and the sanctity of customer money in US markets hangs in the balance. The unprecedented disappearance, loss, and theft of customer money (1.6 billion dollars worth of customer money to be exact) kept in segregated accounts remains unexplained. And as MF Global executives yesterday — legal counsel, CFO, and assistant treasurer — came to answer questions, what did their answers reveal? Not much unfortunately. General Counsel of MF Global Laurie Ferber, Chief Financial Officer Henri Steenkamp, and Christine Serwinski, former chief financial officer of the company’s brokerage unit, all seem to know nothing! In fact, listening to the testimony, you would think that this firm ran on autopilot.





Traveling on Thunder Road (important OI update)

from TF Metals Report:

As you are all well aware, years of observation and trading has led me to the conclusion that the precious metals “markets” are grossly manipulated, managed and suppressed. My confidence in this assumption is what makes the price analysis we do here relevant.
What is satisfying to me and the many others who have been trumpeting this cause is the gradual awakening of the investing public. The long-term policy of currency debasement combined with the long-term bull markets for the metals has brought attention to the metals sector like never before. With that attention comes additional critical analysis and, not surprisingly, much of this analysis comes to the same conclusion many of us “grizzled veterans” have been spouting for years.
Just in the past 24 hours, we’ve seen three very important “research” pieces be released. First came the latest newsletter from Sprott Asset Management. Though Eric tries to rein in some of his conspiratorial impulses, he nonetheless lays out some convincing statistics regarding the latest “Leap Day” samshdown:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3586/latest-sprott-newsletter
Read More @ TF Metals Report.com




A Cashless Society May Be Closer Than Most People Would Dare To Imagine

[Ed. Note: There seems to be a theme developing here tonight. This cashless society thing is catching on.]
from The Economic Collapse Blog:

Most people think of a cashless society as something that is way off in the distant future.  Unfortunately, that is simply not the case.  The truth is that a cashless society is much closer than most people would ever dare to imagine.  To a large degree, the transition to a cashless society is being done voluntarily.  Today, only 7 percent of all transactions in the United States are done with cash, and most of those transactions involve very small amounts of money.  Just think about it for a moment.  Where do you still use cash these days?  If you buy a burger or if you purchase something at a flea market you will still use cash, but for any mid-size or large transaction the vast majority of people out there will use another form of payment.  Our financial system is dramatically changing, and cash is rapidly becoming a thing of the past.  We live in a digital world, and national governments and big banks are both encouraging the move away from paper currency and coins.  But what would a cashless society mean for our future?  Are there any dangers to such a system?
Those are very important questions, but most of the time both sides of the issue are not presented in a balanced way in the mainstream media.  Instead, most mainstream news articles tend to trash cash and talk about how wonderful digital currency is.
Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com




Coins, Paper Money, Plastic Cards Soon to be Historic Relics?

[Ed. Note: Let's all march to the land of the cashless society where the ultimate goal is for you to have all of your personal and financial data on an implantable chip, which can be deactivated at any time, just as Aaron Russo warned us .]
by Beth Deisher, Coin World:
The timeline futurists have predicted for the arrival of a cashless society came into sharp focus March 22 when financial industry experts briefed members of Congress on the rapid development and public adoption of mobile payment devices.
During the first of three hearings the House Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit says it plans to conduct on the future of money, technology experts noted that the ability to use handheld devices — smart phones — to access financial services in-store and online has already opened up channels of transactions that were not possible just a few years ago.
And, amazingly, the experts said that within the next five years smart phones are likely to become the primary way most Americans pay for goods and services, no matter the size of transactions.
Read More @ CoinWorld.com




Geithner Sees Cash in Coins’ Metal [He Wants Your Pennies AND Nickels]

[Ed. Note: Heads up, every single U.S. nickel in circulation is worth 5.3 cents in metal value alone, not counting minting costs. You may want to get yourself a stack.]
by Joseph N. DiStefano, Yahoo News:

Like an old man with a cart picking up junk on Ridge Avenue, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is trying to turn scraps of metal into cash.
Geithner wants to strip copper and other valuable metals from the Philadelphia and Denver coining lines that mint America’s small change. “Currently, the costs of making the penny and the nickel are more than twice the face value of each of those coins,” he told a House Appropriations Committee panel Wednesday.
Treasury wants a law that would give it the freedom “to change the composition of coins to utilize more cost-effective materials” without having to ask Congress for permission every time it dilutes the content of the national coinage.
Read More @ News.Yahoo.com




Canada to Pull the Penny From Circulation [U.S. Penny Next?]

[Ed. Note: Heads up, pre-1983 U.S. pennies are 95% copper and worth 2.5 cents each in copper value alone. You may want to get yourself a stack.]
by Eric Pfeiffer , Yahoo News:

The Canadian government announced on Thursday that it plans to pull the penny from circulation at the end of 2012, saying the copper-coated currency is more expensive for the Royal Canadian Mint to produce than its actual currency value.
“Pennies take up too much space on our dressers at home. They take up far too much time for small businesses trying to grow and create jobs,” said Finance Minister Jim Flaherty. He also said it costs 1.5 cents to produce each penny.
“We will, therefore, stop making them,” he said.
Nonetheless, the news has been causing quite a stir across Twitter today.
The U.S. faces a similar dilemma, where it costs nearly two cents to produce a single penny. U.S. pennies are in fact composed primarily of zinc, and have a thin copper coating. The Wall Street Journal wrote that the Obama Administration has proposed using less expensive materials in the production of pennies and nickels, but public misinformation on the perceived value of coins would likely stir up controversy.
Read More @ News.Yahoo.com




Death of the Dollar by End of 2012 as Lindsey Williams Predicted? BRICS Banks May Ditch the Dollar

from Russia Today:

The BRICS summit has wrapped up in India. Creating an alternative global lender and stepping away from the dollar as a reserve currency were among their main objectives. RT’s Priya Sridhar is in New Delhi. Earlier RT spoke to Dr Sreeram Chaulia, who is a Vice Dean at the Jindal School of International Affairs. He believes institutions like the IMF and the World Bank have outlived their uselfulness.




In The News Today


My Dear Friends,

The future is US dollar Bloc down, Euro Bloc sideways, Bric Bloc up.
This means the absolute end of dollar dominance. Utilizing the SWIFT system as a weapon caused it.
It began today.
Jim




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

It depends on who collects the information.

Technology Comforting or Creepy? Google to Provide a Monthly Report of What It Knows About You
Posted on March 29, 2012 at 9:41am by Liz Klimas
We all know that online tracking is increasing but to what extent is your activity being watched? In an effort to be more transparent, Google is helping you “step back and take stock of what you’re doing online” with a new optional feature called Account Activity.
If you sign-up for the service, Account Activity will provide you with a monthly report of all your online activities using Google products. Here‘s an example from the company’s Public Policy blog post on the new feature:
For example, my most recent Account Activity report told me that I sent 5 percent more email than the previous month and received 3 percent more. An Italian hotel was my top Gmail contact for the month. I conducted 12 percent more Google searches than in the previous month, and my top queries reflected the vacation I was planning: [rome] and [hotel].
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What an activity report will look like. (Image: Google’s Public Policy Blog)
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Release of any strategic reserve only has a temporary market benefit. It has always been that way. It will always remain that way.
“The only successful manipulation of any market by anyone, even government, must be in the direction the market wishes to go anyway.” That is Livermore/Seligman wisdom.
Someday I will share with you how to defeat a short raid according to Livermore/Seligman. This was never written in any book.


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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

A man who the gold gang helped get out of the can with thousands of letters on his behalf is talking trash about the dedication of gold investors.
I firmly believe he is dead wrong, and shooting himself directly in the foot. I knew him in the 70s and I guess nothing really ever changes.
Respect and gratitude is not the long suit of many. Have no fear because we are here.
Regards,
Jim





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is called debt monetization in case you forgot.

WSJ: Fed Buying 61 Percent of US Debt
Wednesday, 28 Mar 2012 11:08 AM
By Julie Crawshaw and Forrest Jones

The Federal Reserve is propping up the entire U.S. economy by buying 61 percent of the government debt issued by the Treasury Department, a trend that cannot last, Lawrence Goodman, a former Treasury official and current president of the Center for Financial Stability, writes in a Wall Street Journal opinion article published Wednesday.
“Last year the Fed purchased a stunning 61 percent of the total net Treasury issuance, up from negligible amounts prior to the 2008 financial crisis,” Goodman writes.
Goodman also warns that U.S. economy and markets are “at risk for a sharp correction” if conditions aren’t “normalized.”
“This not only creates the false appearance of limitless demand for U.S. debt but also blunts any sense of urgency to reduce supersized budget deficits.”
The U.S. government is growing increasingly more dependent on borrowing to finance itself, with net issuance of Treasury securities hitting 8.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on average per annum, more than double levels before the crisis.
Fed intervention in the government debt market makes demand for Treasury bonds appear higher than it really is, as foreign creditors and other investors have fled U.S. government debt instruments and are looking elsewhere until the government makes serious attempts to curb spending and narrow its gaping deficits.
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The internationalization of the Yuan goes unnoticed by dollar managers and investors.

China’s African Odyssey
March 28, 2012, 8:54 a.m. ET
Roughly one million Chinese nationals are working or doing business in Africa, from Egypt’s Mediterranean shore to South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.
Theirs are the faces behind China’s soaring direct investment in Africa— which, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce—rose 87% to $1.1 billion during the first three quarters last year compared to the same period 2010. China’s Ministry of Commerce said the value of all China-Africa trade between January and September last year topped $122 billion—a record amount that was equal to total two-way trade for all 2010.
Central to China’s success and ambitions is South Africa, where mainland companies run textile mills and mining operations. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. owns 20% of South Africa’s Standard Bank Group Ltd. Moreover, South Africa is often a starting point for Chinese businesses that plan to expand into less-developed countries to the north.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Better crank up the SWIFT system Phil, some more emerging economies are getting feisty.

BRICS summit: Emerging economies condemn military threats against Iran, Syria
By Rama Lakshmi, Thursday, March 29, 8:50 AM
NEW DELHI — Leaders of five of the world’s fastest-growing economies called Thursday for an end to the rhetoric of military action against Iran and Syria, as they met in India to develop measures to boost mutual trade in their local currencies.
The leaders of the coalition known as BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — said unilateral sanctions against Iran would affect their trade and economic growth.
“We must avoid political disruptions that create volatilities in global energy markets and affect trade flows,” Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said. “We agreed that lasting solution to the problems in Syria and Iran can only be found through dialogue.”
Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, echoed Singh’s concerns when she said that she does not “support any embargo policy” and “escalation of pro-violence rhetoric.” She called for “opening a room for compromise solution” on Iran.
The statements come at a time when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is warning of a possible military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. In Syria, a violent crackdown on an opposition uprising by the government of President Bashar al-Assad has killed about 9,000 people, according to U.N. estimates.
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

I wonder if the West will have a SWIFT response

BRICS to change world economy
“The BRICS countries’ leaders are preparing for their annual meeting. These countries make up 42 percent of the world’s population and a quarter of its landmass. They are also responsible for 20 percent of the Global GDP and
own a whopping 75 percent of the foreign reserve worldwide. In these tough
times for world economics these countries are trying to find a solution for the situation. RT’s Priya Sridhar gives us a sneak peak of the summit from India.”







Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Marshall Law in peace time under presidential order is now in place as a facility to be used.
Things in place tend to get used.

Zakaria: Incarceration nation
By Fareed Zakaria
Editor’s Note: The following is an excerpt of Fareed Zakaria’s column in this week’s TIME Magazine, which you can read in full here, behind a paywall.
“Mass incarceration on a scale almost unexampled in human history is a fundamental fact of our country today,” writes the New Yorker’s Adam Gopnik. “Over all, there are now more people under ‘correctional supervision’ in America – more than 6 million – than were in the Gulag Archipelago under Stalin at its height.”
Is this hyperbole? Here are the facts. The U.S. has 760 prisoners per 100,000 citizens. That’s not just many more than in most other developed countries but seven to 10 times as many. Japan has 63 per 100,000, Germany has 90, France has 96, South Korea has 97, and ­Britain – with a rate among the ­highest – has 153….
This wide gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world is relatively recent. In 1980 the U.S.’s prison population was about 150 per 100,000 adults. It has more than quadrupled since then. So something has happened in the past 30 years to push millions of Americans into prison.
That something, of course, is the war on drugs. Drug convictions went from 15 inmates per 100,000 adults in 1980 to 148 in 1996, an almost tenfold increase. More than half of America’s federal inmates today are in prison on drug convictions. In 2009 alone, 1.66 million Americans were arrested on drug charges, more than were arrested on assault or larceny charges. And 4 of 5 of those arrests were simply for possession….
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Repatriate our Gold!
Gold has been natural money for thousands of years. It has been used throughout history either as physical coinage or as solid cornerstone for stable paper currencies. Up until 1913, most Western societies prospered and grew steadily and naturally under a monetary standard with at least partial gold backing. The gradual abandonment of the gold backing throughout the 20th century and the ultimate delinkage of all currencies from gold in 1971 is the fundamental cause of the ongoing inflation (the US-Dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power since 1913) as well as the main reason for the global financial crises since 2007. We believe it is essential to re-introduce a (partial) goldbacking for the world´s monetary system. And in order to back future national currencies, the gold needs to be physically present in the respective country. Gold needs to be re-monetized – at least on a voluntary basis as a means of payment the people are free to choose anytime.
We therefore campaign for …
… independent, full, neutral and physical audits of the gold hoards of the world´s central banks
… the repatriation of all central bank gold; i.e. the physical transport into the respective ownership countries
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