“The Military Industrial Complex Has Got Us By The Throat!” Jack Cafferty
Money from Nothing - A Primer on Fake Wealth Creation and its Implications (Part 2)
Only in a debt-based money system could debt be curiously cast as an asset.
We’ve made “extend and pretend” a quaint phrase for a burgeoning
market for financial lying and profiteering aimed toward preventing the
collapse of a debt- (or lack-) based system that was already doomed by
its initial design to collapse. This primer will detail the major
components and basic evolution of fake wealth creation, accelerating
debt expansion, hollowing out of the economy, and inevitable financial
implosion.
U.S. Deficit Growing–Not Tax Receipts
from Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com:
Monday’s post closed with, “. . . The nonpartisan agency projected the government will run a deficit of $229 billion in February, the highest monthly figure ever.” (Click here for the complete report from the Washington Times.) That means the government spent nearly $8 billion more than it took in each and every day of last month (29 days). This is not a sign of economic “strength” but of tremendous weakness. You cannot print your way to prosperity, but it can pave the way to an economic collapse.” (Click here for Monday’s complete post.) The $229 billion (February) deficit was reportedly revised upward, making the situation worse than I reported.
Read More @ USAWatchdog.com
Monday’s post closed with, “. . . The nonpartisan agency projected the government will run a deficit of $229 billion in February, the highest monthly figure ever.” (Click here for the complete report from the Washington Times.) That means the government spent nearly $8 billion more than it took in each and every day of last month (29 days). This is not a sign of economic “strength” but of tremendous weakness. You cannot print your way to prosperity, but it can pave the way to an economic collapse.” (Click here for Monday’s complete post.) The $229 billion (February) deficit was reportedly revised upward, making the situation worse than I reported.
Read More @ USAWatchdog.com
[Ed. Note: There's never been a better time for an Orlando vacation... Sun, sand, and no fat government stooge trying to gum your ball sack at the airport.]
by Paul Joseph Watson, InfoWars.com:
One of America’s busiest airports, Orlando Sanford International, has announced it will opt out of using TSA workers to screen passengers, a move which threatens the highly unpopular federal agency’s role in other airports across the nation.
“The president of the airport said Tuesday that he would apply again to use private operators to screen passengers, using federal standards and oversight,” reports the Miami Herald.
With Sanford International having originally been prevented by the TSA from opting out back in November 2010 when the federal agency froze the ability for airports to use their own private screeners, a law passed by the Senate last month forces the TSA to reconsider applications.
Larry Dale hinted that the move was motivated by the innumerable horror stories passengers have told of their encounters with the TSA, noting that the change was designed to provide a more “customer friendly” operation.
Read More @ InfoWars.com
30 Year Prices At Highest Yield Since August 2011
As has been noted all this week, starting with Monday's 3 Year auction which printed at the highest yield in 5 months, the $12 billion 30 Year Bond did not surprise, and at a yield of 3.381%, just inside of the When Issued 3.385%, it priced at the highest yield since August 2011, or just days after the US downgrade. The Bid To Cover was 2.70, on top of the TTM average of 2.68. Take downs were a carbon copy of February, coming at 14.7%, 29.0% and 56.3% for Directs, Indirect and, of course, Dealers. Does the yield have a ways to go? Oh yes - back in February 2011 the 30 Year priced at 4.75%, and then the slow steady decline commenced. What happens next? Will the US need another downgrade for yields to paradoxically slide? Or will the Fed truly leave the UST curve untouched by phasing out its market subsidization? Hardly: as a reminder, here is where we stand: $1 trillion in bond issuance in the next 10 months, and $100 billion in bond sales by China in December (with the latest TIC data pending). Forget stocks, and keep your eyes glued to the bond market. Things are starting to get interesting, especially for the Fed whose DV01 of $2Bn means that every basis point rise in yields means less P and more L. But the scariest implication: recall why the Fed wanted low rates - to spur mortgages and refis. It seems that Bernanke has finally given up on this. The only mandate left now is to blow the NASDAPPLE bubble to 2000 levels. At which point everyone can retire with paper profits. Until the cash profit taking begins of course. Then... it will be someone else' problem.David Stockman on Crony Capitalism
from WealthCycles:
The housing market comprises the asset base of the banking and financial system. When home prices fall, the loss is not marked-to-market price, as the hit to lenders is taken when the foreclosure process is completed.
With the new year comes the annual promises of a housing recovery. As we reported on the 2012 outlook here, prices have continued falling. Institutions had better be ready to take some of the hit from their mélange of non-performing loans or continue to extend and pretend, delaying final write-down of loss.
Banks had better be ready, because according to the latest from Lender Processing Services, foreclosures have risen to an all-time high for the month of January, up 28%!
Read More @ WealthCycles.com
The housing market comprises the asset base of the banking and financial system. When home prices fall, the loss is not marked-to-market price, as the hit to lenders is taken when the foreclosure process is completed.
With the new year comes the annual promises of a housing recovery. As we reported on the 2012 outlook here, prices have continued falling. Institutions had better be ready to take some of the hit from their mélange of non-performing loans or continue to extend and pretend, delaying final write-down of loss.
Banks had better be ready, because according to the latest from Lender Processing Services, foreclosures have risen to an all-time high for the month of January, up 28%!
Read More @ WealthCycles.com
Arrest Leon Panetta for Treason Campaign 2012
Gold stocks now selling at 6.2 times cash flow
from FinancialSense.com:
Jim welcomes back to Financial Sense Newshour John Doody PhD, editor of the Gold Stock Analyst. John discusses the recent weakness in the gold stocks and sees opportunity in today’s market. He notes three factors that determine value when investing in a gold stock.
John Doody brings a unique perspective to gold stock analysis. With a BA in Economics from Columbia, an MBA in Finance from Boston University, where he also did his PhD-Economics course work, Doody has no formal “rock” studies beyond “Introductory Geology” at Columbia, taught by the University’s School of Mines. An Economics Professor for almost two decades, Doody became interested in gold due to an innate distrust of politicians. In order to serve those that elected them, politicians always try to get nine slices out of an eight slice pizza. How do they do this? They debase the currency via inflationary economic policies.
Click Here to Listen to the Interview
by Gary North, LewRockwell.com:
The term “zombie banks” refers to banks that refuse to lend to the private sector. They are run by fearful bankers who do not trust other bankers. They do not trust many potential borrowers. According to legend, zombies survive by eating the brains of their victims. It seems to me that zombie bankers must be limiting their diet to brains of other bankers and investment fund managers.
Governments are ready borrowers of money lent by zombie banks. Zombie bankers think that their banks’ money is safer with sovereign nations’ IOUs than with other forms of IOUs. The governments siphon off the money that could have been lent to the private sector.
Read More @ LewRockwell.com
My Dear Friends
Is the Greek Debt Problem Really Solved? By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Yesterday, a short but ominous press release was issued at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. It said, “At the request of CME Clearing Europe Limited (CMECEL), pursuant to Section 7 of the Commodity Exchange Act, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an Order on March 13, 2012, vacating the registration of CMECEL as a derivatives clearing organization.” (Click here for the CFTC press release.) In plain English, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) no longer wants to be the clearing house for European derivatives. The derivatives market in Europe must have been very lucrative for the company. After all, just the credit default swap (CDS) market is reportedly worth $50 trillion globally. (A CDS is a form of insurance. If there is a default, the debt is paid by the entity that sold the insurance contract.) I ask myself, why would the CME willingly stop being the clearing house for this profitable and large market?
Just last week, it was reported there was a new Greek debt deal where 95% of the bondholders voluntarily agreed to take nearly a 75% loss on Greek debt. CNBC reported, “Greece successfully closed its bond swap offer to private creditors on Thursday, opening the way to securing the funding it needs to avert a messy default on its debt, according to several senior officials. . . . The biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history will see bond holders accept losses of some 74 percent on the value of their investments in a deal that will cut more than 100 billion euros from Greece’s crippling public debt.” Buried in the CNBC story was this little tidbit that said, “That would potentially trigger payouts on the credit default swaps (CDS) that some investors held on the bonds, an event which would have unknown consequences for the market.” (Click here for the complete CNBC story.)
Is the CME exiting the European CDS market just when the proverbial CDS contracts are about to hit the fan? This comes just after the CME’s 50 year old CEO, Craig Donohue, announced his retirement earlier in the week. I am sure that is just a coincidence. I know the mainstream media has been telling folks everything is just fine with the Greek debt crisis, but that’s not what a Member of the European Parliament said in an interview yesterday. Nigel Farage said on King World News, “We sort of pretend that it didn’t happen and it wasn’t really a proper credit event, yet we know that various CDS’s are being triggered. We also know that yesterday 110 private bondholders, who had held their bonds through German banks, are now taking legal action. Just to top it all, the thing that almost made me laugh was that yesterday the German Finance Minister said, ‘We must be preparing now, any day, for a third bailout.’ So this idea that the leaders of Europe give that everything is fine, everything is not fine.” The outspoken Farage went on to say. “You can argue that the ECB, by printing money, has staved off the crisis for a few weeks. But the fundamentals haven’t changed one bit, the euro is in deep, deep crisis. . . . They are determined to prop up and keep together this completely failed experiment. But they know as soon as they give in on Greece, the circus will move on to Portugal, Spain and possibly Italy.” (Click here to read and hear the complete Farage interview on King World News.)
More…
http://usawatchdog.com/is-the-greek-debt-problem-really-solved/
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The "Strategic Metals War" published in 1983 predicted this perfectly. But like today in gold, who listens?
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The Federal Reserve released the results of its stress tests, showing that "despite large hypothetical declines, the post-stress test capital level … of 15 of the 19 bank holding companies were estimated … above all 4 of the regulatory minimum levels … even after considering the proposed capital actions, such as dividend increases or share buybacks."
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Well at least for today BS floats. Any news that obscures reality is accepted openly by MSM.
Do not get hit by floating BS. Gold will trade in the $1700 to $2111 range and beyond.
Jim,
CDS traders and risk managers are in total disarray as the rules on CDS triggering set by the ISDA are not clear.
“If the Committee starts making decisions on the basis of what it believes is good for the market (whatever that means), in disregard of the true contractual position, there will no longer be any certainty about the result of credit event determinations. The system only works if the market is confident the Committee will make decisions on the correct legal basis according to the documentation.”
Click here to read the article…
With CDS rendered useless you can expect:
Jim,
Frédéric Oudéa, CEO of SocGen, admits bellow that liquidity in the banking system is rare and expensive … not to say dead.
Best regards,
CIGA Christopher
La liquidité devient "rare et chère", dit la Société Générale Source : reuters.com – 14/03/2012 | 12:53 – 500 mots |
PARIS (Reuters) – La liquidité est devenue pour les banques une ressource rare et chère et le marché interbancaire ne repartira pas massivement tant que les nouvelles normes bancaires du comité de Bâle ne seront pas modifiées, a déclaré mercredi Frédéric Oudéa, le PDG de la Société générale.
En raison des inquiétudes sur la solidité du système bancaire européen dans le contexte de crise de la dette dans la zone euro et de normes prudentielles plus contraignantes, les banques européennes éprouvent des difficultés à se refinancer.
Les tensions sur la liquidité bancaire ont été telles que la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) a dû intervenir à deux reprises, en décembre et fin février, pour injecter plus de 1.000 milliards d’euros de prêts à trois ans (LTRO) pour aider les banques européennes et éviter un tarissement du crédit.
"Le monde a considérablement changé et peut-être encore plus sur la liquidité que sur le capital (.) La grande leçon de la crise, c’est que la liquidité est désormais chère et beaucoup plus rare" , a expliqué Frédéric Oudéa lors d’une conférence à l’European American Press Club à Paris.
"Le marché interbancaire, les prêts directs se raréfient", a-t-il ajouté.
En Europe, d’autres dirigeants bancaires soulignent que le marché interbancaire n’a pas retrouvé un fonctionnement normal en dépit des interventions exceptionnelles de la BCE.
"La liquidité n’est toujours pas abondante malgré les fonds injectés par la BCE", a ainsi dit Federico Ghizzoni, le directeur général de la banque italienne Unicredit lors d’une conférence à Rome. "Il est difficile de trouver des financements à moyen et long terme."
More…
Jim,
“European banks’ net positions are contained,” said Oudea, who is also the head of the French Banking Federation. “CDSs, according to all circulating figures, do not represent a significant issue for any bank nor for the financial system.”
The words "according to all circulating figures" show how Frederic Oudea, who is also the CEO of SocGen, doesn’t want to bet personally on this. In fact, he doesn’t have a real clue on the size of the damage caused by CDS triggering concerning Greece!
Welcome to the world of financial uncertainty caused by CDSs!
The interbank lending system in Europe is dead. From now on, European banks rely solely on the ECB for liquidity.
Best regards,
Christopher
SocGen Will Have ‘Zero Cost’ From Greek CDS, Oudea Says By Fabio Benedetti-Valentini – Mar 14, 2012 9:05 AM GMT-0300
Societe Generale SA (GLE), France’s second-largest bank, will have no costs related to Greek credit- default swaps after the biggest sovereign restructuring in history, Chief Executive Officer Frederic Oudea said.
“For Societe Generale it will be zero cost,” Oudea said today at a press conference in Paris. Societe Generale has “no net exposure” on Greek credit-default swaps, he said.
Private investors, including Societe Generale, BNP Paribas SA (BNP) and Germany’s Deutsche Bank AG, last week forgave more than 100 billion euros ($131 billion) of debt, paving the way for a second bailout for Greece from euro-area authorities and the Washington-based International Monetary Fund.
More…
Dear Jim,
The market is reacting as if all is well and no further liquidity is required. They should study the following table.
CIGA Luis Ahlborn Sequeira
Radical Greek and Portuguese Haircut Will Be Unavoidable
The data used by the debt barometer make it possible to calculate what size of haircut would be necessary to enable the countries hit by the crisis to shoulder their debt again on their own (Table 2). Greece is close to be being completely bankrupt. Portugal would need a haircut to the tune of one-third to one-half. Ireland, Italy, and Hungary can only avoid a haircut if they can achieve high growth rates, whereby the outlook is relatively good for Ireland
Size of Haircut Needed in Particular Countries versus potential growth rates. (as of January 2012)
More…
Dear CIGAs,
I like to term the VIX or the CBOE Volatility Index, the Complacency Index, because it is an excellent gauge of whether or not traders are complacent or fearful. The higher the reading, the more fearful or worried they have become. The lower this index reads, the more complacent or careless they generally are.
One has to go back a period of 45 MONTHS (June 2007) to find investor psychology at these levels of complacency in regards to the broad stock market as indicated by the S&P 500. I should point out that this was one year prior to the credit meltdown of the summer of 2008. It would currently seem that hardly anyone on the planet is the least bit concerned about the level of the US equity markets due to the enormous amounts of Central Bank supplied liquidity.
Click here to read the full article on Trader Dan’s website…
We need only take our heads out of the sand to see clearly that interventionism not only has failed to provide the promised something-for-nothing, but has led to all sorts of undesirable consequences. Indeed, many are just beginning to realize that we are moving towards disaster even though we have been on a wrong heading for decades" –Leonard Read (Founder, Foundation For Economic Education)
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The US files suit concerning their total lack of planning for the future.
I wrote a book, "The Strategic Metals War" in 1983 screaming for the stockpiling of these items. Of course it was totally ignored. Click here to see the book…
U.S. to file rare earths complaint. The U.S. will file a complaint today with the WTO over China’s quota for rare earth exports, with President Obama expected to personally announce the action.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is the latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com.
- Rising Prices Largely Accounted for February Retail Sales Gain
"No. 423: February Retail Sales"
http://www.shadowstats.com
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The financial death of the fixed income dependent retiree:
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Global liquidity peak spells trouble for late 2012
The global liquidity cycle has already rolled over. Assuming that no fresh action is taken, world economic growth will peak within a couple of months and then fade in the second half of the year – with grim implications for Europe’s Latin bloc. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
7:00PM GMT 11 Mar 2012
Data collected by Simon Ward at Henderson Global Investors shows that M1 money supply growth in the big G7 economies and leading E7 emerging powers buckled over the winter.
The gauge – known as six-month real narrow money – peaked at 5.1pc in November. It dropped to 3.6pc in January, and to 2.1pc in February.
This is comparable to falls seen in mid-2008 in the months leading up to the Great Recession, and which caught central banks so badly off guard.
“The speed of the drop-off is worrying. This acts with a six months lag time so we can expect global growth to peak in May. There may be a sharp slowdown in the second half,” said Mr Ward.
If so, this may come as a nasty surprise to equity markets betting that America has reached “escape velocity” at long last, that Europe will scrape by with nothing worse than a light recession, and that China is safely rebounding after touching bottom over of the winter.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Dollar utilization is dropping daily.
Post June of this year .7200 will be tested. Most supply at USDX .80 to .892.
Japan to purchase 65 billion yuan in China government debt By Stanley White
TOKYO | Tue Mar 13, 2012 2:36am EDT
(Reuters) – Japan said on Tuesday it had received approval from China’s government to purchase 65 billion yuan ($10.3 billion) in Chinese government debt in a move that can help Japan diversify its reserves away from the dollar and strengthen economic ties between the two Asian countries.
The timing of purchases hasn’t been set yet as Japan still needs to make some administrative preparations, but Japan is likely to start with a small amount and then increase purchases, Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi said.
Japan will also consider the impact on financial markets when it decides the timing of its purchases, Azumi said.
China said on Monday it would continue its purchases of Japanese government debt but would reduce purchases when the yen is rising as China and Japan, holders of the largest and second-largest currency reserves, look to limit exposure to the dollar.
"We feel this is an appropriate amount when considering our mutual goal of strengthening economic cooperation between Japan and China," Azumi told reporters.
More…
MUST WATCH...
Irish journalist Vincent Browne confronts the ECB’s (European Central Bank) Klaus Masuch demanding to know where the money is going.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
CME Withdraws from European Derivative Responsibilities
The CFTC just released this announcement related to the CME withdrawing as a European Derivatives Clearing House:
March 13, 2012
CFTC Vacates CME Clearing Europe Limited Registration as a Derivatives Clearing Organization
Washington, DC–At the request of CME Clearing Europe Limited (CMECEL), pursuant to Section 7 of the Commodity Exchange Act, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an Order on March 13, 2012, vacating the registration of CMECEL as a derivatives clearing organization.
http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6208-12
Did you catch that the removal of the status was "AT THE REQUEST OF THE CME"?
There is a RAGING wildfire behind the scenes as the entire $50,000,000,000,000 Credit Default Swap market is imploding due to the Greek default. The losses will come fast and furious once the auction is held on March 19th. The ISDA’s 2009 "Big-Bang Protocol" will be put to the test next week.
More for Private Road Members in this weeks Friday Road Trip.
You can sign up for the Private Road here:
http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/10.cfm
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The term “zombie banks” refers to banks that refuse to lend to the private sector. They are run by fearful bankers who do not trust other bankers. They do not trust many potential borrowers. According to legend, zombies survive by eating the brains of their victims. It seems to me that zombie bankers must be limiting their diet to brains of other bankers and investment fund managers.
Governments are ready borrowers of money lent by zombie banks. Zombie bankers think that their banks’ money is safer with sovereign nations’ IOUs than with other forms of IOUs. The governments siphon off the money that could have been lent to the private sector.
Read More @ LewRockwell.com
from GoldMoney.com:
Cautious words from the Federal Reserve encouraged another sell-off in gold and silver yesterday, with the gold price falling below an important buying support level at $1,680. The silver price has also fallen, and as of 1200GMT is trading below $33. Settlement below $33 could prolong silver bulls short term problems – with $32.50 a particularly important support level, given that this price consistently marked a point of selling resistance in silver until the mini-breakout last month.
Yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement gave no indication of more imminent stimulus measures from the Fed, and also noted that the economy was “expanding moderately”, and that “labor market conditions have improved further”, but that unemployment “remains elevated”. As ever – and in common with central banks the world over – it views the current spike in crude oil and petrol prices as temporary, and thinks that “longer term inflation expectations remain stable.” The bond market appears to be telling a rather different story on this front, however, with another sell-off in US Treasuries and the long bond now close to breaching an important technical support level on its monthly price chart. Perhaps the US Treasury should take a leaf out of the British government’s book and start issuing 100-year bonds pronto. Rates aren’t going stay at the current pitifully low levels forever.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com
Cautious words from the Federal Reserve encouraged another sell-off in gold and silver yesterday, with the gold price falling below an important buying support level at $1,680. The silver price has also fallen, and as of 1200GMT is trading below $33. Settlement below $33 could prolong silver bulls short term problems – with $32.50 a particularly important support level, given that this price consistently marked a point of selling resistance in silver until the mini-breakout last month.
Yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement gave no indication of more imminent stimulus measures from the Fed, and also noted that the economy was “expanding moderately”, and that “labor market conditions have improved further”, but that unemployment “remains elevated”. As ever – and in common with central banks the world over – it views the current spike in crude oil and petrol prices as temporary, and thinks that “longer term inflation expectations remain stable.” The bond market appears to be telling a rather different story on this front, however, with another sell-off in US Treasuries and the long bond now close to breaching an important technical support level on its monthly price chart. Perhaps the US Treasury should take a leaf out of the British government’s book and start issuing 100-year bonds pronto. Rates aren’t going stay at the current pitifully low levels forever.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com
from King World News:
With gold trading near the $1,700 level, today the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, had this to say in his latest commentaries: “I have been writing my ‘stuff’ for about 54 years. They say that you can’t teach old dogs new tricks, but I’m an old dog and I’m still learning. Many people in this line of work ask me how in the world I stay in business. I tell them, I really don’t know, I write about what’s on my mind, and most subscribers evidently like it.”
Richard Russell continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com
With gold trading near the $1,700 level, today the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, had this to say in his latest commentaries: “I have been writing my ‘stuff’ for about 54 years. They say that you can’t teach old dogs new tricks, but I’m an old dog and I’m still learning. Many people in this line of work ask me how in the world I stay in business. I tell them, I really don’t know, I write about what’s on my mind, and most subscribers evidently like it.”
Richard Russell continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com
by Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster:
It isn’t over until it is over. Of course, we are referring to Europe and its version of 1984. We find it profound that the bankers, politicians and bureaucrats of Europe can do what they have done with a straight face. Investor had a haircut shoved down their throats and the ECB, the European Central Bank and the IMF were exempt. How does that work? That is because some are more equal than others. There is no question this will be a defining event for the European and world financial system. We did see a partial default, but only because the derivative creators, the ISDA, had to make one, otherwise their derivative business would have collapsed. No one will deal with an insurer or a bookmaking operation that doesn’t pay off and constantly arbitrary changes the rules. Needless to say, such machinations are out of sight of the public, because 99% of them certainly do not understand derivatives.
Read More @ TheInternationalForecaster.com
from LewRockwell.com:
Gerald Celente talks to Lew Rockwell about the moral and economic responsibility of every individual in these times.
Click Here to Listen to the Interview
It isn’t over until it is over. Of course, we are referring to Europe and its version of 1984. We find it profound that the bankers, politicians and bureaucrats of Europe can do what they have done with a straight face. Investor had a haircut shoved down their throats and the ECB, the European Central Bank and the IMF were exempt. How does that work? That is because some are more equal than others. There is no question this will be a defining event for the European and world financial system. We did see a partial default, but only because the derivative creators, the ISDA, had to make one, otherwise their derivative business would have collapsed. No one will deal with an insurer or a bookmaking operation that doesn’t pay off and constantly arbitrary changes the rules. Needless to say, such machinations are out of sight of the public, because 99% of them certainly do not understand derivatives.
Read More @ TheInternationalForecaster.com
from LewRockwell.com:
Gerald Celente talks to Lew Rockwell about the moral and economic responsibility of every individual in these times.
Click Here to Listen to the Interview
Official Memo From Lloyd And Gary To Employees: "89% Of You Provide Exceptional Services To Clients"
The Greg Smith drama refuses to go away (probably for a reason). Earlier, we presented a spoof response from a spoof Goldman CEO. Now, courtesy of the WSJ, here is the real memo sent out from Lloyd and Gary to employees in which we learn that "89% of Goldman employees self reported they provide exceptional services to their clients." But what about the remaining 11%? Because out of 10 employees, just one is required to rob a client, whatever that means these days anyway, blind. Oddly enough, didn't CFA Magazine just find that 10% of all Wall Streeters are psychopaths? That more or less explains it all.Will JPY Devaluation Disrupt Global Growth?
Seemingly hidden from the mainstream media's attention, we note that the last six weeks has seen the second largest devaluation in the JPY since Sakakibara's days in the mid-90s. As Sean Corrigan (of Diapason Commodities) notes, this has to be putting pressure on Japan's Asian neighbors - not least the engine of the world China. Furthermore, JPY on a trade-weighted basis has cracked through all the major moving averages and sits critically at its post-crisis up-trendline. As we noted last night, perhaps Japan really is toppling over the Keynesian endpoint event horizon. JPY weakness and the carry trade may not be quite as hand in hand if rates start to reflect any behavioral biases, inflation (or more critically hyperinflation) concerns any time soon.My Dear Friends
If you were to talk to the intelligencia of the street you would be treated to the following. I do and I know.
1. The US economy is reaching escape velocity.
2. The equity market is now rising on #1 and liquidity is no longer the key ingredient.
3. The fact that gold did not go to $2000 on the Greek default means gold is tired.
4. The dollar is strong on all of the above.
2. The equity market is now rising on #1 and liquidity is no longer the key ingredient.
3. The fact that gold did not go to $2000 on the Greek default means gold is tired.
4. The dollar is strong on all of the above.
The fact is there is not one ounce of truth in the above.
1. No account is taken for the savings of $40 billion not spent on
utilities on the East coast for the winter that was not. Seasonality
will soon factor into statistics, bringing them more toward a mean.
2. Without liquidity as a primary factor, the general equities market will go into severe reaction also due to weak internals that only stimulation can overcome.
3. The figures concerning the Greek debt and CDS activation are total fabrications invited by US management due to an election year tolerance for whatever might help.
4. The dollar this year will cave for reasons few understand. That is sundering of its use as an international settlement mechanism on a weekly basis.
2. Without liquidity as a primary factor, the general equities market will go into severe reaction also due to weak internals that only stimulation can overcome.
3. The figures concerning the Greek debt and CDS activation are total fabrications invited by US management due to an election year tolerance for whatever might help.
4. The dollar this year will cave for reasons few understand. That is sundering of its use as an international settlement mechanism on a weekly basis.
Look for the long term cash buyers of gold to defeat the lower
estimates of price that you will hear blasting out of the top callers,
bears and seekers of your subscription money.
Pull the rock over your hole or go for a long walk. As always avoid margin like a disease.
Regards,
Jim
Jim
Yesterday, a short but ominous press release was issued at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. It said, “At the request of CME Clearing Europe Limited (CMECEL), pursuant to Section 7 of the Commodity Exchange Act, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an Order on March 13, 2012, vacating the registration of CMECEL as a derivatives clearing organization.” (Click here for the CFTC press release.) In plain English, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) no longer wants to be the clearing house for European derivatives. The derivatives market in Europe must have been very lucrative for the company. After all, just the credit default swap (CDS) market is reportedly worth $50 trillion globally. (A CDS is a form of insurance. If there is a default, the debt is paid by the entity that sold the insurance contract.) I ask myself, why would the CME willingly stop being the clearing house for this profitable and large market?
Just last week, it was reported there was a new Greek debt deal where 95% of the bondholders voluntarily agreed to take nearly a 75% loss on Greek debt. CNBC reported, “Greece successfully closed its bond swap offer to private creditors on Thursday, opening the way to securing the funding it needs to avert a messy default on its debt, according to several senior officials. . . . The biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history will see bond holders accept losses of some 74 percent on the value of their investments in a deal that will cut more than 100 billion euros from Greece’s crippling public debt.” Buried in the CNBC story was this little tidbit that said, “That would potentially trigger payouts on the credit default swaps (CDS) that some investors held on the bonds, an event which would have unknown consequences for the market.” (Click here for the complete CNBC story.)
Is the CME exiting the European CDS market just when the proverbial CDS contracts are about to hit the fan? This comes just after the CME’s 50 year old CEO, Craig Donohue, announced his retirement earlier in the week. I am sure that is just a coincidence. I know the mainstream media has been telling folks everything is just fine with the Greek debt crisis, but that’s not what a Member of the European Parliament said in an interview yesterday. Nigel Farage said on King World News, “We sort of pretend that it didn’t happen and it wasn’t really a proper credit event, yet we know that various CDS’s are being triggered. We also know that yesterday 110 private bondholders, who had held their bonds through German banks, are now taking legal action. Just to top it all, the thing that almost made me laugh was that yesterday the German Finance Minister said, ‘We must be preparing now, any day, for a third bailout.’ So this idea that the leaders of Europe give that everything is fine, everything is not fine.” The outspoken Farage went on to say. “You can argue that the ECB, by printing money, has staved off the crisis for a few weeks. But the fundamentals haven’t changed one bit, the euro is in deep, deep crisis. . . . They are determined to prop up and keep together this completely failed experiment. But they know as soon as they give in on Greece, the circus will move on to Portugal, Spain and possibly Italy.” (Click here to read and hear the complete Farage interview on King World News.)
More…
http://usawatchdog.com/is-the-greek-debt-problem-really-solved/
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The "Strategic Metals War" published in 1983 predicted this perfectly. But like today in gold, who listens?
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Goebbels would be proud.
Do you really think the timing of this to the Greek default was
simply good luck? Economic propaganda is a major business for young
psychologists looking for employment.
BS cannot cure the problems. It can buy precious little time but that is all.
Fed shares stress test results… The Federal Reserve released the results of its stress tests, showing that "despite large hypothetical declines, the post-stress test capital level … of 15 of the 19 bank holding companies were estimated … above all 4 of the regulatory minimum levels … even after considering the proposed capital actions, such as dividend increases or share buybacks."
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Well at least for today BS floats. Any news that obscures reality is accepted openly by MSM.
Do not get hit by floating BS. Gold will trade in the $1700 to $2111 range and beyond.
Jim,
CDS traders and risk managers are in total disarray as the rules on CDS triggering set by the ISDA are not clear.
“If the Committee starts making decisions on the basis of what it believes is good for the market (whatever that means), in disregard of the true contractual position, there will no longer be any certainty about the result of credit event determinations. The system only works if the market is confident the Committee will make decisions on the correct legal basis according to the documentation.”
Click here to read the article…
With CDS rendered useless you can expect:
- Total stop of sovereign bonds by private hands.
- Much higher bond rates as hedges don’t work anymore
- Lower liquidity in the system (inter-banking system, secondary market of sovereign bonds…)
- Growing uncertainty on the systemic risk
- Lower profit for banks selling CDSs, a product with a huge margin
Jim,
Frédéric Oudéa, CEO of SocGen, admits bellow that liquidity in the banking system is rare and expensive … not to say dead.
Best regards,
CIGA Christopher
La liquidité devient "rare et chère", dit la Société Générale Source : reuters.com – 14/03/2012 | 12:53 – 500 mots |
PARIS (Reuters) – La liquidité est devenue pour les banques une ressource rare et chère et le marché interbancaire ne repartira pas massivement tant que les nouvelles normes bancaires du comité de Bâle ne seront pas modifiées, a déclaré mercredi Frédéric Oudéa, le PDG de la Société générale.
En raison des inquiétudes sur la solidité du système bancaire européen dans le contexte de crise de la dette dans la zone euro et de normes prudentielles plus contraignantes, les banques européennes éprouvent des difficultés à se refinancer.
Les tensions sur la liquidité bancaire ont été telles que la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) a dû intervenir à deux reprises, en décembre et fin février, pour injecter plus de 1.000 milliards d’euros de prêts à trois ans (LTRO) pour aider les banques européennes et éviter un tarissement du crédit.
"Le monde a considérablement changé et peut-être encore plus sur la liquidité que sur le capital (.) La grande leçon de la crise, c’est que la liquidité est désormais chère et beaucoup plus rare" , a expliqué Frédéric Oudéa lors d’une conférence à l’European American Press Club à Paris.
"Le marché interbancaire, les prêts directs se raréfient", a-t-il ajouté.
En Europe, d’autres dirigeants bancaires soulignent que le marché interbancaire n’a pas retrouvé un fonctionnement normal en dépit des interventions exceptionnelles de la BCE.
"La liquidité n’est toujours pas abondante malgré les fonds injectés par la BCE", a ainsi dit Federico Ghizzoni, le directeur général de la banque italienne Unicredit lors d’une conférence à Rome. "Il est difficile de trouver des financements à moyen et long terme."
More…
Jim,
“European banks’ net positions are contained,” said Oudea, who is also the head of the French Banking Federation. “CDSs, according to all circulating figures, do not represent a significant issue for any bank nor for the financial system.”
The words "according to all circulating figures" show how Frederic Oudea, who is also the CEO of SocGen, doesn’t want to bet personally on this. In fact, he doesn’t have a real clue on the size of the damage caused by CDS triggering concerning Greece!
Welcome to the world of financial uncertainty caused by CDSs!
The interbank lending system in Europe is dead. From now on, European banks rely solely on the ECB for liquidity.
Best regards,
Christopher
SocGen Will Have ‘Zero Cost’ From Greek CDS, Oudea Says By Fabio Benedetti-Valentini – Mar 14, 2012 9:05 AM GMT-0300
Societe Generale SA (GLE), France’s second-largest bank, will have no costs related to Greek credit- default swaps after the biggest sovereign restructuring in history, Chief Executive Officer Frederic Oudea said.
“For Societe Generale it will be zero cost,” Oudea said today at a press conference in Paris. Societe Generale has “no net exposure” on Greek credit-default swaps, he said.
Private investors, including Societe Generale, BNP Paribas SA (BNP) and Germany’s Deutsche Bank AG, last week forgave more than 100 billion euros ($131 billion) of debt, paving the way for a second bailout for Greece from euro-area authorities and the Washington-based International Monetary Fund.
More…
Dear Jim,
The market is reacting as if all is well and no further liquidity is required. They should study the following table.
CIGA Luis Ahlborn Sequeira
Radical Greek and Portuguese Haircut Will Be Unavoidable
The data used by the debt barometer make it possible to calculate what size of haircut would be necessary to enable the countries hit by the crisis to shoulder their debt again on their own (Table 2). Greece is close to be being completely bankrupt. Portugal would need a haircut to the tune of one-third to one-half. Ireland, Italy, and Hungary can only avoid a haircut if they can achieve high growth rates, whereby the outlook is relatively good for Ireland
Size of Haircut Needed in Particular Countries versus potential growth rates. (as of January 2012)
Growth Rate | 2.0% | 4.0% |
France | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Germany | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Greece | 83.77% | 81.87% |
Hungary | 14.81% | 0.00% |
Ireland | 30.05% | 0.28% |
Italy | 13.41% | 0.00% |
Portugal | 55.62% | 45.84% |
Spain | 0.00% | 0.00 |
Dear CIGAs,
I like to term the VIX or the CBOE Volatility Index, the Complacency Index, because it is an excellent gauge of whether or not traders are complacent or fearful. The higher the reading, the more fearful or worried they have become. The lower this index reads, the more complacent or careless they generally are.
One has to go back a period of 45 MONTHS (June 2007) to find investor psychology at these levels of complacency in regards to the broad stock market as indicated by the S&P 500. I should point out that this was one year prior to the credit meltdown of the summer of 2008. It would currently seem that hardly anyone on the planet is the least bit concerned about the level of the US equity markets due to the enormous amounts of Central Bank supplied liquidity.
Click here to read the full article on Trader Dan’s website…
We need only take our heads out of the sand to see clearly that interventionism not only has failed to provide the promised something-for-nothing, but has led to all sorts of undesirable consequences. Indeed, many are just beginning to realize that we are moving towards disaster even though we have been on a wrong heading for decades" –Leonard Read (Founder, Foundation For Economic Education)
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
I have read all the reports on the CDSs trigger. The following is the only result.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The US files suit concerning their total lack of planning for the future.
I wrote a book, "The Strategic Metals War" in 1983 screaming for the stockpiling of these items. Of course it was totally ignored. Click here to see the book…
U.S. to file rare earths complaint. The U.S. will file a complaint today with the WTO over China’s quota for rare earth exports, with President Obama expected to personally announce the action.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is the latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com.
- Rising Prices Largely Accounted for February Retail Sales Gain
"No. 423: February Retail Sales"
http://www.shadowstats.com
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The financial death of the fixed income dependent retiree:
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The gold thesis says the financial system cannot stand another round of stress.
Liquidity remains the answer to each crisis. Add to this the US
dollar is going to suffer in the 2nd half from the almost daily
sundering of international settlement utilization. Combined, you have a
perfect recipe for gold ranging from $1700 to $2111 and beyond.
Global liquidity peak spells trouble for late 2012
The global liquidity cycle has already rolled over. Assuming that no fresh action is taken, world economic growth will peak within a couple of months and then fade in the second half of the year – with grim implications for Europe’s Latin bloc. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
7:00PM GMT 11 Mar 2012
Data collected by Simon Ward at Henderson Global Investors shows that M1 money supply growth in the big G7 economies and leading E7 emerging powers buckled over the winter.
The gauge – known as six-month real narrow money – peaked at 5.1pc in November. It dropped to 3.6pc in January, and to 2.1pc in February.
This is comparable to falls seen in mid-2008 in the months leading up to the Great Recession, and which caught central banks so badly off guard.
“The speed of the drop-off is worrying. This acts with a six months lag time so we can expect global growth to peak in May. There may be a sharp slowdown in the second half,” said Mr Ward.
If so, this may come as a nasty surprise to equity markets betting that America has reached “escape velocity” at long last, that Europe will scrape by with nothing worse than a light recession, and that China is safely rebounding after touching bottom over of the winter.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Dollar utilization is dropping daily.
Post June of this year .7200 will be tested. Most supply at USDX .80 to .892.
Japan to purchase 65 billion yuan in China government debt By Stanley White
TOKYO | Tue Mar 13, 2012 2:36am EDT
(Reuters) – Japan said on Tuesday it had received approval from China’s government to purchase 65 billion yuan ($10.3 billion) in Chinese government debt in a move that can help Japan diversify its reserves away from the dollar and strengthen economic ties between the two Asian countries.
The timing of purchases hasn’t been set yet as Japan still needs to make some administrative preparations, but Japan is likely to start with a small amount and then increase purchases, Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi said.
Japan will also consider the impact on financial markets when it decides the timing of its purchases, Azumi said.
China said on Monday it would continue its purchases of Japanese government debt but would reduce purchases when the yen is rising as China and Japan, holders of the largest and second-largest currency reserves, look to limit exposure to the dollar.
"We feel this is an appropriate amount when considering our mutual goal of strengthening economic cooperation between Japan and China," Azumi told reporters.
More…
MUST WATCH...
Irish journalist Vincent Browne confronts the ECB’s (European Central Bank) Klaus Masuch demanding to know where the money is going.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
I have told you from the very beginning that the clearing of OTC
derivatives will in no way cure the problems such as CDSs which are
insurance policies issued by unregulated financial entities who police
themselves.
CME Withdraws from European Derivative Responsibilities
The CFTC just released this announcement related to the CME withdrawing as a European Derivatives Clearing House:
March 13, 2012
CFTC Vacates CME Clearing Europe Limited Registration as a Derivatives Clearing Organization
Washington, DC–At the request of CME Clearing Europe Limited (CMECEL), pursuant to Section 7 of the Commodity Exchange Act, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an Order on March 13, 2012, vacating the registration of CMECEL as a derivatives clearing organization.
http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6208-12
Did you catch that the removal of the status was "AT THE REQUEST OF THE CME"?
There is a RAGING wildfire behind the scenes as the entire $50,000,000,000,000 Credit Default Swap market is imploding due to the Greek default. The losses will come fast and furious once the auction is held on March 19th. The ISDA’s 2009 "Big-Bang Protocol" will be put to the test next week.
More for Private Road Members in this weeks Friday Road Trip.
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