Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Faber: "Middle East Will Go Up In Flames" ... "Have To Be In Precious Metals And Equities"

Swiss money manager and long term bear Marc Faber, aka "Dr Doom", says political risk in the Middle East has increased significantly with war between Iran and Israel “almost inevitable”, and precious metals and equities investments offer some safety. "Political risk was high six months ago and is higher now. I think sooner or later, the U.S. or Israel will strike Iran - it's almost inevitable," Faber, who publishes the widely read Gloom Boom and Doom Report, told Reuters on the sidelines of an investment conference. Brent crude traded near $123 per barrel in volatile trade on Tuesday on fears of a disruption in Iranian supplies. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed no signs of backing away from possible military action against Iran following a Monday meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama. "Say war breaks out in the Middle East or anywhere else, (U.S. Federal Reserve chairman) Mr Bernanke will just print even more money -- they have no option...they haven't got the money to finance a war," said Faber. "You have to be in precious metals and equities ... most wars and most social unrest haven't destroyed corporations - they usually survive," he said. He said that Middle East markets had largely bottomed out, though regime changes from the Arab Spring revolutions were unlikely to be investor-friendly.




BTFD...Gold and Silver 's on SALE today...Keep Stacking ...






For Bailout Nations, New EU Treaty is High Price to Pay
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46627858
 
 
 
Pump Prices Rise Again; Oil Prices Waver
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OIL_PRICES
 
 
 
 



Panetta Says Us Will Take Military Action In Iran If All Else Fails

Wonder why risk is sliding, and taking crude with it? Here's why:
  • DEFENSE SECRETARY PANETTA SAYS THE US WILL TAKE MILITARY ACTION TO PREVENT IRAN FROM ACQUIRING NUCLEAR WEAPON IF ALL ELSE FAILS - RTRS
Guess what - all else will fail, as there is no "all else" - this whole charade has been set up precisely to leave Iran with no options. Then again, even the Pentagon knows that starting with a lower baseline in Crude, supposedly in the double digits, is preferable to a $110 jumping board when Operating Enduring Iran Oil Liberation is a go.

 

 

Biggest Dow Drop In 3 Months

As Apple goes sour (-5% from yesterday's highs) and financials flounder (MS -7% this week), the Dow is suffering its largest single-day loss in 3 months (which is relatively stunning given that it is -150pts or only just over 1% on the day). Under the surface though weakness is considerable across asset classes and sectors (as Materials, Financials, and Energy are the laggards).





ECB Surpasses €3 Trillion, Still Most Undercapitalized Hedge Fund In The World

A few days ago when discussing the "stability" of Europe's biggest and most undercapitalized hedge fund, we said that "The adjusted balance sheet is pro forma for today's LTRO 2, which we noted earlier will add at least €311 billion in net assets to the ECB's balance sheet, and potentially much more. Assuming the minimum, it means the ECB's balance sheet will now hit €3 trillion." Sure enough - as of minutes ago, the total ECB balance sheet just passed €3 trillion, or €3.023 trillion to be precise (which is just why of $4 trillion based on today's exchange rate), as our estimate of net LTRO contribution was on the low side, with total assets increasing by €331 billion in the past week. Needless to say, capital and reserves has been unchanged, which means that our analysis from a week ago factoring in the ECB balance sheet expansion of the "well-capitalized" ECB was correct. Incidentally, the spike in the chart below was factored in long ago (about 20% lower in the market ago). And as we have been saying all along, the next bank on the docket to ease is the Fed, as everyone else has already done so. However before that happens stocks and more importantly crude, have to plunge by at least 15-20%, much to Dick Fisher's shock. It seems that the market is finally getting the hint today.




Gold & Middle East Tensions

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
If somebody starts bombing Iran, everything in the world is probably going to go down for a while except maybe gold. Maybe the US dollar would go up initially, but probably everything would be hit in the shock except maybe gold. - *in Economic Times* Related, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* more »

 

 

Sooner Or Later The U.S. Or Israel Will Strike Iran

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago
Political risk was high six months ago and is higher now. I think sooner or later, the U.S. or Israel will strike Iran—it's almost inevitable. - *in CNBC* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* more »

 

 

Global Shift From Public To Private Assets

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago
Capital beginning to recognize something is wrong has been slowly reallocating from bonds to stocks worldwide. Japan is no exception. Reallocation from extremely low yielding Japanese government bonds (JGB) to Japanese equities is underway. The transition will be volatile. Japan Equities (EWJ) And Nikkei Diffusion Index (DI) Headline: Nikkei drops on profit-taking, China growth target... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] more »

 

 

The Joke's On US

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 9 hours ago
*Our whole system or Rule of Law and accountability has completely broken down at the highest levels of Government and banking. Our system is no better than the Banana Republics we grew up to mocking and despising - THAT's our system now...* It's now starting to look like Jon Corzine and JP Morgan both are going to get away with hijacking customer funds. I predicted early on that 1) the original amount of missing $600 million in customer would funds would turn out to be a much greater amount and 2) that Corzine and Company would get away with robbing from the middle class and g... more » 

 

 

Erste Group's Complete 2012 Oil Price Outlook - "Nothing To Spare", Crude Could Reach $200


The latest in a series of reports evaluating the future of the energy markets, especially in the context of the increasingly inevitable Iranian conflict, may just be the best and most comprehensive one (not just because it looks at the commodity from an "Austrian" angle). In 82 pages, Austrian Erste Group has extracted the key aspects and variables for the world oil market and come up with a simple conclusion: "nothing to spare." To wit: "We see the risks for the oil price heavily skewed to the upside. At the moment, the market is well supplied, but the smouldering crisis in the Persian Gulf could easily push oil prices to new all-time-highs should it escalate. We believe that new all-time-highs can be reached in H1, at which point we could see demand destruction setting in. We forecast an average oil price (Brent) of USD 123 per barrel between now and March 2013...The latently smouldering Iran crisis seems to be close to escalation. The most recent manoeuvres, ostentatious threats, sanctions, embargoes and the shadow war currently ongoing, have heated up the situation further. It seems we may soon see the last straw that breaks the camel's back. Even though Iran could probably only maintain a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz only for a very limited period of time, the consequences would still be dramatic. The oil price would definitely set new all-time-highs and could reach levels of up to USD 200." Enjoy those price dips while you can.




LTRO Stigma Surges As PSI Concern 'Stuns' Europe

European financials are under significant pressure today and that is dragging down the rest of the broad markets. The selling appears to be driven by three main factors: 1) the LTRO Stigma has surged back to record wides (after a brief lull into LTRO2); 2) rather amazingly investors are starting to get concerned that the Greek PSI deal may not happen; and 3) weak macro data. Obviously both are no surprise to readers and the canaries have been fluttering for a few weeks on this. Equity markets continue to hold onto hope as they remain broad outperformers but in a different tone than the last credit-led sell-off, European equities are dropping much more in sync today. Sovereign spreads and yields are leaking higher with Spain and Italy underperforming (followed closely by France) as perhaps all the self-serving Italian and Spanish carry-trade-funding banks have run out of ammo (or will to extend) as the Greek basis package inches ever closer to Par (implying absolute inevitability of an imminent credit event). Notably Sov CDS are underperforming (as we pointed out last week they are potentially a less manipulated and cleaner indication of risk appetite than bonds for now). It would appear that all the belief that insolvency tail risk and contagion had been deferred or ring-fenced by yet another liquidity flush may have simply forced European banks into an Oliver-Twist-style environment - "May we have some more?" as we now start top hear the mutually assured destruction chatter surrounding the implications of a failed PSI deal - where have these people been for the last 3 months?




More PSI Troubles: Greek Swiss Franc Bondholders Organize, Will Hold Out

Confirming that the angst 3 days ahead of the Greek PSI deadline is very warranted, we learn that Bingham, which as we noted previously has so far identified and organized a significant group of local law bondholders potentially sufficient to derail the transaction, has now also organized a blocking group of Greek bondholders, this time those holding the country's outstanding Swiss Franc bonds. From Bloomberg: "Investors in Greece’s Swiss franc bonds have formed a group to fight for their rights as the country seeks to pare about 106 billion euros ($139 billion) of debt as part of an international bailout. The group is concerned by the terms of the restructuring and is “exploring means to address its concerns and to protect the rights of holders of the bonds,” according to a statement from their legal adviser Bingham McCutchen LLP in New York. The group holds the 650 million Swiss francs ($708 million) of 2.125 percent notes due 2013." Ironic that there are those who have taken a look at Venizelos' "best and only offer" and just said no. All that is left now is for Bingham to find and organize the blocking stake in the UK-law bonds and the PSI outcome will be, as we forecast way back when, that of the lower right quadrant. In the meantime, any and all Greek bondholders who dislike excess use of vaseline to be used on their bent over bodies, to contact Bingham promptly.




Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: March 6

Markets are exhibiting very risk-averse behaviour ahead of the US open, with European equity markets making heavy losses across the board with flows into the safer assets. This follows Greece dominating the headlines once again, with a report from the IIF warning of dangerous ramifications for Europe should Greece default. These reports got the European session off to a bad start, with losses made throughout the morning. Market talk of a delay in the Greek debt swap deal deadline has also been circulating, however this was swiftly denied by the Greek Debt Agency chief as well as the Greek Finance Ministry, although this failed to reassure markets and they continue on a downward trend into the US open. Eurozone GDP data released earlier in the session showed a contraction in the last quarter of 2011, although expected, this has reignited concerns of a recession in Europe. The ECB have recorded yet another record level of deposits from European banks in its overnight lending facility, with institutions depositing EUR 827.5bln on Monday night.




Frontrunning: March 6

  • Cotton prices jump as India bans exports (FT)
  • Goldman’s Asia Unit Lost Money First Time Since 2008 on Soured Stock Bets (Bloomberg)
  • Meet Mark Spitznagel, Ron Paul's L.A. hedge-fund guy (SPCR)
  • U.S., Israel Pull Closer on Iran (WSJ)
  • IBM’s Watson Gets Wall Street Job After ‘Jeopardy’ Win (Bloomberg)
  • US Senate OKs Bill Aimed at China Subsidies (Reuters)
  • Czech Banks May Need More Funds in Crisis (Bloomberg)
  • Banker Bonus Limits Sought by EU Lawmakers (Bloomberg)
  • Volcker Rule Needs Extensive Revisions Amid Feedback, SEC’s Gallagher Says (Bloomberg)


Risk Off


Asian equities too a hit, posting their biggest two-day loss this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.2%. The losses were situated in the Hang Seng, which fell 2.2% and China’s Shanghai Composite, which declined 1.4%. Meanwhile, Europe is off 1.6% in the aggregate after the second take on Q4 GDP confirmed the 0.3% drop from the initial estimate. And, after yesterday’s sell-off, equity futures are pointing to a weaker open at home across the major indices driven in part by concerns that the Greek PSI will not get the required 75% participation as reported here yesterday. In the US, government bonds are in rally mode with the 10-year Treasury note yield down 4bps, to 1.97%; the long bond is rallying 5bps, to 3.10%. Across the pond, government bonds are performing as one would expect. Benchmark German bunds are rallying 4bps, to 1.78% while France, Italy, and Spain are selling off anywhere from 5 to 9bps. In the FX market, the US dollar is enjoying a flight to safety bid against major currencies. The DXY index is up 0.5%. Not surprisingly, with risk being taken off the table, commodities are taking a hit. WTI crude oil is down 60 cents, to $106.10 per barrel. Industrial metals are taking a hit too; copper is off 1.6% to its lowest level since mid February. In Europe, the LTRO continues to not work at all as the ECB deposit facility rose to a new all time record of €827 billion as cash parked with the ECB is not being used for any other purpose, and the net money from LTRO 1 and 2 is now less than the cash added to the ECB from Europe's banks.  

 

 

Presenting the Obama Volt


 









Presenting The Original Kyle Bass Subprime Presentation

In this day and age of pervasive momentum trading, herd-following and unfathomable and sheer "investing" stupidity, it is refreshing to now and then run across forward looking pieces of research that were not only spot on, but ran completely counter to conventional wisdom and groupthink. Such as the following analysis from Kyle Bass' Heyman Capital, which was also the pitchbook for the fund's Subprime fund, which showed, in plain language why Subrpime was not only the class to short, but the implications for the broader market. As a reminder, the fact that Bass made a killing by being one of the first to short subprime, is because the vast majority of the market was dumb enough not to see what he saw. Because it was inconceivable that the Fed could be wrong. After all, throughout 2006 it was none other than the Fed that told everyone who was stupid enough to listen that housing issues were "contained." Ironically, all those same people who lost an arm and a leg believing the Fed are back again, telling everyone to never get in the way of the Fed.




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