How To Become An American Extremist In Style

I think it is clear that extremists in an environment of despotism are in most cases people who refuse to abandon that which makes humanity whole.  We are, indeed, dangerous, but only to those who would do liberty harm.  A life of conformity is a life wasted, and a life of slavery is no life at all.  Whatever we may be called today, what we leave behind is ultimately what defines us.  Labels are irrelevant.  If I am an “extremist” because I refuse to participate in the delusion that is America in the new millennium, then so be it.  I am more than happy to join the long list of insurrectionaries who inhabit this nation today and who have been the legitimate makers of the world for generations.  Everything in history revolves not around governments, but rule-breakers.  They alone decide whether humanity will live tight in the fist of the authoritarian machine, or live free in the wilds of unbridled independence.

US Budget Deficit Hits All Time High In February

For a global economy that is "improving" we sure are getting a whole lot of records in the won't direction in the last two days. Yesterday it was Japan which printed a record current account deficit (yes, the most indebted country in the world was once upon a time supposed to export its way out of debt). Today, we learn that in February the US will report its largest budget deficit in history, as the Keynesian floodgates open full bore, and as Zero Hedge has noted repeatedly, tax revenues just refuse to come in at anything close to the pace of accelerated spending, forcing the US to borrow 54 cents for every dollar it spends (not the often cited 42 cent number which does not take into account tax refunds - see here). We would comment more on this, but frankly the chart speaks for itself. And now that the US has to fund an additional $100 billion due to the taxcut extension this means that things are only going to get worse, fast.

 

The US Deleveraging Is Now Over

Today the Fed released its quarterly Flow of Funds report, also known as the Z.1., which is mostly tracked to show quarterly changes in consumer net worth (and which we find far more valuable to show changes in shadow banking liabilities - more in that in a later post). So while in Q4 household net worth did increase by $1.2 trillion to $58.5 trillion, all of this change, and then some, was purely driven by the central bank induced ramp in the stock market: $1.3 trillion of the $1.2 trillion increase in Net Worth was from the change of value in equity shares at market value which at December 31 was $17.3 trillion. In other words, the illusion of wealth is and continues to be merely a iCTRL+P keystroke away. Yet the one finding that is truly surprising is that in Q4 for the first time since Q1 2008, debt across all holder classes increased: debt held by Households, Nonfinancial corporate business, nonfinancial noncorporate business, state and local governments and of course the Federal government, all rose in the quarter. In other words, the US deleveraging is now over as everyone adds debt for the first time since before the crash. The credit bubble is now officially back. 

Greek "Fresh Start" Bonds Face Immediate 80% Loss, 98% Probability Of Redefault

As 'news' breaks of over 80% participation in the Greek PSI deal and the apparent optimism that this is somehow a good thing, we note that our analysis of what would happen from two months ago was exactly spot on. As the FT reports, "financial markets were already betting Greece would default again in the future. Grey market “when issued” pricing for the 20 new bonds were ranging from 17 to 28 cents on the euro, a highly distressed level, according to indicative quotes", which just happens to almost perfectly coincide with our view:"Which means that according to a generic bond yield calc, the price on the fresh start bonds post reorg will be... 17.9 cents of par, or immediate losses of over 80% the second these bonds break for trading from par." Given grey market bond and CDS pricing, this would imply a 98% probability of Greece redefaulting within the next few years.

Reuters Reports That Hedge Funds Have Found Greek Default Trigger Loophole

While the general market mood is one of pre-default euphoria reminiscent of that in the pre-Lehman weekend, clouds may be brewing. As Reuters reports, "Some hedge funds have found a legal loophole they believe will force Greece to repay some of its debt in full, three sources close to the matter said on Thursday, in a move that would intensify the standoff between the country and its debtors." The loophole? A tiny €412.5 million bond issued by Hellenic Railways with a clause that "allows bondholders to argue that Greece is in default if it is trying to restructure or change the terms of its debt, the sources said. The creditors could already argue that Athens has defaulted, and if they buy up a quarter of that bond -- or enough of it not to be forced into the debt swap -- they can also then demand immediate repayment, a process known as acceleration." More: "The funds are now trying to buy up enough of the bond -- issued by state-owned Hellenic Railways and guaranteed by the government -- to force Greece to repay them in full, to the tune of some 400 million euros. If Greece refuses to do so, this may trigger similar provisions on other Greek railway bonds, potentially landing Athens with a bill of about 3 billion euros, with investors demanding immediate repayment, the sources said." Things could move very fast since the PSI results are due in 7 hours: "Sources close to Greece's negotiation fear the funds could already start the acceleration process by Friday, or next week, if they find they have a big enough majority."

China accumulating silver and gold on dips/Switzerland also wants to repatriate gold/gold and silver rise

Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 20 minutes ago

Good evening  Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed up today by $14.80 with silver participating as well rising by 19 cents to $33.73. Late tonight we should hear from the PSI but judging from Greek bond trading, a CAC looks likely and a credit default swap will be triggered.  However the default swap should go off quite orderly. Tomorrow is the non-farm payrolls and we should expect the normal

 

Video: Asset Allocation

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 1 hour ago

Latest video interview, CNBC. *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*

 

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

Warm Winter May Have Cooked Economic Data - What?

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago

I have to admit, I’ve read a lot of bad headline explanations throughout the years. The “warm winter effect”, dominating the influences of infinite liquidity (QE), statistical ‘flexibility’ contained within nearly all government released data, and global capital flows, however, establishes a new threshold for bad. Headline: Warm Winter May Have Cooked Economic Data The economic news has been... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

 

Something To Keep In Mind Before Tomorrow's Payroll Report

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 4 hours ago

I don't think I would find anyone who would dispute that the BLS employment report is, at best, very poorly constructed and, more likely, intentionally and fraudulently manipulated. The Gallup research organization released it's own employment measure today. I think almost everyone would agree that it is likely that Gallup's report is more accurate that that of the BLS, although I have to believe that, depending on how they format their polling questions, likely understates true unemployment. I also am pretty sure that they assume the BLS number for the size of the labor force, ... more »

 

We Are Going To Have A Slowdown

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 4 hours ago

We are going to have a slowdown. Such is the staggering debt that America has, it has caused more and more of a drag on our economy. I would also point out to you that every four to six years we’ve had an economic slowdown in the U.S., since the beginning of time, so by 2012, 2013, 2014, we are well overdue for an economic slowdown for whatever reason. Whether it’s caused by high oil or what, we’re going to have a slowdown in the foreseeable future. - in BI *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time,... more »

 

Nikkei`s Bullish Case

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 5 hours ago

In the case of Japan, I always argued that for the stock market to perform well, you need a weak yen. And this year the yen has weakened against the dollar by almost 7 percent. - *in CNBC* *Related, iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF (EWJ), Nikkei 225 Index* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*

Obama Denies Trying To Bribe Israel In Exchange For Iran Bombing Delay

Earlier today we reported that based on various sources, the chief topic of conversation between Obama and Netanyahu at this week's talk between the two leaders was the calendar for Operation Desert Glass and Operation Enduring Brent Freedom, just so the ensuing price surge in crude does not impair Obama's reelection chances. From that point on it was merely a countdown to the official denial from the US government, as the last thing the president needs is the perception that the fate of the US' top post is somehow in the hands of Israel, which in turn needs to be bribed with concrete penetrating presents of the GBU-XXX family to withhold from doing what it feels like doing. Sure enough...

Guest Post: The Story Behind US Gas Price Pain

Gasoline consumption in the United States has been dropping for years. In the last decade, vehicle fuel efficiency has improved by 20%, and the combination of that shift and a weak economy of late has pushed gasoline demand to its lowest level in a decade. At the same time, US oil production is at its highest level in a decade. Deepwater wells in the Gulf of Mexico and horizontal fracs in the Bakken shale have turned America's domestic oil production scene around. After 20 years of declining production, US crude output rates started to climb in 2008 and have increased every year since. With production up and demand down, the basics of supply and demand indicate that oil prices should be falling. Americans should be paying less at the pump. Instead, the average US price at the pump reached US$3.80 per gallon on March 5, after 27 consecutive days of gains. That's 26.7¢ above the old record for March 5, set last year. The price of gasoline has climbed 32¢ or 9.3% since February 1; analysts expect prices to continue rising, reaching a national average of something like US$4.25 per gallon. What gives? Is it all about Iran? Are speculators manipulating the market? Do any politicians have good ideas on how to "fix" the high cost of gasoline? And is there relief on the horizon?

Gold $1700 Again As Equities Shrug Off Credit Concerns

Credit markets closed at their best levels of yesterday and traded in a very narrow (much less risk hungry mode) range as stocks zoomed 1% higher than yesterday's best levels on volumes considerably less than the year's average so far. With tonight's PSI 'news' unlikely to be a surprise (and certainly not unexpectedly bullish as CACs are enacted and likely to trigger CDS), overnight China inflation, and tomorrow's NFP print seemingly priced into the market for perfection, it is apparent the marginal equity trader is far more comfortable with uncertainty (remember participation does not mean agreement still) than the marginal credit trader. The usual suspects did well with Materials, Industrials, and Financials all outperforming (and the majors bouncing back) but we do note that the average contract size in ES (the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract) was its highest in five weeks (even if it was roll week). Treasuries melted slowly higher in yield all day continuing yesterday's trend to complete the largest two-day rise in 30Y yields in six weeks. This de-risking along with JPY weakness and AUD/EUR strength supported risk but we do note that CONTEXT (our broad risk asset proxy) lagged Equity's excitement all day even as it leaked higher. Commodities benefited from USD weakness with WTI managing to get back over $107 briefly and back to positive for the week, Gold getting above $1700 and a wild ride in Silver leaving it in line with Copper -2.5% on the week so far.

Texas Instruments Cuts Guidance As Usual, Fifth Consecutive Cut

It must be a day ending in Y because Texas Instruments just cut its guidance again, or rather, as usual. The reason: "lower demand for Wireless products." Uhm, such as those that the company with the fruit logo makes?

Trading Greece After The PSI

While anyone (as we did) with an abacus and five-minutes of spare time from hitting the buy-button could have figured out that post-PSI 'new' GGBs would trade down hard, it is perhaps worth looking at some sensitivity analysis on both the shape of the Greek curve and the level (as well as the value of GDP warrants) before jumping on any bid from BNP in the grey. Of course, excitement over 80-90% participation rate rumors are somewhat irrelevant as CACs are as inevitable as hearing the phrase 'money-on-the-sidelines' on CNBC every day and whether its 77% or 97% is largely irrelevant - despite our equity market's ebullience. Morgan Stanley provides some color on the new GGBs, which they expect to trade at least 200bps wide of Portugal and with an inverted curve expecting prices to stabilize in the mid-20s (with technicals in the short-term pushing prices below 20). The GDP warrants are estimated at a fair-value around 1c and if the Argentine framework is any evidence, this will be heavily discounted (read ignored) by the market. All-in-all, not exactly positive but still buy stocks because 90% sounds like a good number!

Gray Market "Fresh Start" Greek Bond, Aka GGB2 Full Pricing Grid

And this is what the market is now seeing for Fresh Start Greek bond pricing (all 20 CUSIPs) via BNP.

Greek PSI Response Period Ends As Participation Rate = RAND()

Update: as expected, the SKAI number which ramped the market was sheer idiocy, and was based on the assumption of a CAC trigger, which obviously means that all bonds should accept following the trigger of te coercive clause.
The time to submit one's response to the Greek PSI has now ended. The next milestone is 8 am local (1am Eastern), when the full results will be announced. But why wait: according to Greek SKAI, participation is now over 90%. That Greece has been known to adjust numbers even more than the BLS is well known, but who cares: the market has taken this rumor and is running with it. Whether this also means that there will be no need to even bother with CDS remains to be seen, as participation, i.e., responding to the exchange offer, does not mean agreeing with the terms of the exchange offer, but market always shoots first and asks questions later. Finally, since UK law bonds are 13% (not to mention Swiss and Japanese-law) of the total it is amusing that once again nobody can do simple math. Incidentally, SKAI appears to be pulling numbers out of glutes. From the Guardian live blog: "Whoever gives percentage rates now is naive. There are only four or five people on the planet who know the exact percentage and those who claim to know are just guessing." And just out from Dow Jones: Government official tells us debt swap participation rate hovering around 80%.

Fed's Advice On Trading The Sun's Moodiness

While we have unapologetically highlighted some of the incredible taxpayer-funded research undertaken by the Fed such as "Why water is wet?" and "Why the sky is blue?", this little gem from the Atlanta Fed takes the proverbial biscuit: "Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market". While there are undoubtedly correlations and the physics of tidal and geomagnetic effects are clear on human brains that are 78% water, the advice is fascinating: "Specifically, people affected by geomagnetic storms may be more inclined to sell stocks on stormy days because they incorrectly attribute their bad mood to negative economic prospects rather than bad environmental conditions." History sometimes repeats, history often rhymes. Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week's stock returns for all U.S. stock market indices. Trade accordingly.

Shockingly Large BLS Adjustments Should Be Main Focus Into NFP

As we head into tomorrow's all-important NFP print, that will make or break the next month's market action and political posturing, we thought it worth highlighting just how statistically farcical the accuracy bias is in this data. As we pointed out in January, this time of year is prone to extreme seasonal adjustments and moreover, this year has seen these adjustments breaking records in their relative scale. As TrimTabs notes the seasonal adjustment for February is likely to exceed 1.5 million jobs, which is many times greater than the job growth the BLS is trying to measure. They expect a 149k add, down from their 180k add forecast for January, which is well below the 210k consensus estimate but we note that the difference between the highest analyst estimate (+275k and no its not Joe LaVorgna) and the lowest (+125k) is entirely covered by a mere 10% disturbance in the BLS-'force' of adjustment. Critically, this means that whatever they need the number to be, it will be though we hesitantly point out the sad reality that while we have added jobs for 17 consecutive months (apparently), the average 133k addition is still insufficient to absorb all the new entrants to the labor force, suggesting the unemployment rate is likely to remain above 8%.

Gallup Finds February US Unemployment Jumps Most Since 2010, Third Consecutive Monthly Increase

When it comes to economic data, there is the BLS's seasonally-adjusted, Birth/Death-ed, Arima-factored, goal-seeked, election year propaganda, or there is real time polling such as that conducted every month by Gallup. And while there is no doubt tomorrow's NFP number will be just better than expected (after all it is an election year for the Derpartment of Truth), the reality is that in February unemployment, that measured by the impartial polling agency Gallup, soared by 0.5%, the most since late 2010, from 8.6% to 9.1%, and back to August 2011 levels. As for the U-6 BLS equivalent, Gallup's underemployment metric rose to 19.1% from 18.7% in January, and a 18% low in mid 2011. The good news, it is just modestly better than the 19.9% in February 2011. Gallup's conclusion, which should be pretty obvious: "Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures show a substantial deterioration since mid-January. In this context, the increase in unemployment as measured by Gallup may, at least partly, reflect growth in the workforce, as more Americans who had given up looking for work become slightly more optimistic and start looking for work again. So while there may be positive signs, the reality Gallup finds is that more Americans are looking for work now than were doing so just six weeks ago....In mid-February, Gallup reported that its U.S. unemployment rate had increased to 9.0% from 8.3% in mid-January. The mid-month reading normally provides a relatively good estimate of the government's unadjusted unemployment rate for the month." Ahh.. Unadjusted. As for tomorrow, expect the BLS to continue in treating seasonally-adjusted Americans like idiots, and pushing the disconnect between the economy as seen by DC bureaucrats and Joe Sixpack to record spreads.

Presenting Europe's Schizophrenia Post LTRO

Since Draghi's second savior LTRO, European markets have been flip-flopping gradually lower. These four charts do not seem to suggest a market that is confident about tail-risk containment, sovereign firewalls, or an orderly restructuring by Greece. Sovereign spreads are broadly higher (Spain, France, and Portugal the most), CDS spreads are underperforming (as protection is sought and CDS seen having value as a hedge), non-financial and financial credit is notably weaker, LTRO Stigma remains notably wide, stocks are broadly lower, and the EURUSD is back at 'fair' with its swap spreads (removing its over-pessimism). There has been no change in the price trends for UK-law versus Greek-law GGBs (i.e. noone believes this is over) and even if it were, a renewed focus on growth is hardly a market positive given lending trends and macro prints in Europe recently.

Please consider making a small donation, to help cover some of the labor and costs to run this blog.
Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified