Dear CIGAs,
Today legendary trader and investor Jim Sinclair told King World News the “credit event” in Greece totals much more than the $3.5 billion which is being reported by the mainstream media. Sinclair also said if the CDS’s are in fact made to pay, this could require the rescuing of eight international banks, through Fed swaps that could total in the trillions of dollars. Here is what Sinclair had to say about what is happening : “The release made by the International Swaps & Derivatives Association (ISDA), for the average Mensa member or genius, is totally incomprehensible. The press is using the word default, but the ISDA is using the word ‘auction.’ Clearly, the amount of CDS’s outstanding is infinitely more than the $3.5 billion that is being quoted.”
Jim Sinclair continues:
“The BIS confirms, in the area of CDS’s the total outstanding is approximately $37 trillion. So I believe the reports being given about this just being a small and modest market event is false. As a market observer and having more than 50 years in the business, the real number is at least 50% or more of the existing $37 trillion that is related to Greece.
The $3.5 billion figure being quoted in the press could easily be the reporting to the US Comptroller of the Currency. For example, a foreign, non-consolidated subsidiary of a US bank, operating out of London, reports the size and kind of the over the counter derivatives to the BIS, not the Comptroller of the US…..
Click here to read the rest of the interview on KingWorldNews.com
Dear CIGAs,
This is just over the wires. I do not see the word default herein.
ISDA EMEA Determinations Committee: Restructuring Credit Event Has Occurred with Respect to The Hellenic Republic
LONDON, March 9, 2012 – The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA) today announced that its EMEA Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee resolved unanimously that a Restructuring Credit Event has occurred with respect to The Hellenic Republic (Greece).
The EMEA DC resolved that a Restructuring Credit Event has occurred under Section 4.7(a) of the ISDA 2003 Credit Derivatives Definitions (as amended by the July 2009 Supplement) following the exercise by The Hellenic Republic of collective action clauses to amend the terms of Greek law governed bonds issued by The Hellenic Republic such that the right of all holders of the Affected Bonds to receive payments has been reduced.
More…
Dear CIGAs,
This is why gold today is at a high presently trading at $1715.20.
The estimate of under $4 billion as the total notional value of the contracts outstanding is a serious understatement.
Go to the BIS report to get a feel for the real size. This will fire
speculation against the rest of the Euro debt as few would buy CDS
vehicles if they did not work.
I still await the word default from the ISDA.
ISDA Says Greece In Default, CDS Will Trigger 3/09/2012 @ 2:51PM
UPDATE 2 (2:48 p.m.): ISDA has now declared that Greece’s restructuring does represent a default, meaning that credit default swaps will trigger. Read the statementhere.
UPDATE (2:43 p.m.): An ISDA spokesman told Forbes no decision has been reached regarding on whether Greece’s restructuring qualifies as a credit even, which would in turn trigger CDS protection.
A report by Derivatives Intelligencepublished around 2:00 PM New York time said the ISDA had indeed considered the PSI/debt restructuring deal a credit event. Their report from the supposed ISDA release, noting the application of collective action clauses had “reduced” bondholders’ ability to receive payments, and that an auction for outstanding CDS would be held March 19.
Kevin Dugan, the journalist that published the initial report, tweeted a picture of the ISDA’s supposed press release. Click here for the picture.
Greece did it! The Hellenic Republic executed the highly controversial PSI or debt restructuring deal, getting 85.8% of holders of Greek-law governed bonds and 69% of foreign-law bonds to tender. All eyes will now fall on the ISDA as the Greek government uses collective action clauses (CACs) to force holders of bonds governed by domestic law to take the debt swap, potentially triggering credit default swaps (CDS).
While Greece hasn’t missed a bond payment yet, it has effectively defaulted by forcing a 74% haircut on those creditors that held out, as Fitch’s calculations in their recent downgrade of Greece’s sovereign rating to “selective default” show. The question of a Greek default may appear superfluous to some, given the country is relatively small and has been bailed out, but the resolution of the situation will set historical precedents that could take on massive importance if other peripherals, particularly Spain and Italy, face serious financing problems.
And that is why the International Swaps and Derivatives Association’s decision on CDS is actually transcendental. Greece announced that holders of €152 billion of bonds governed by Greek law, of the approximately €177 billion issued, voluntarily tendered their bonds and accepted a 74% haircut. Also included in the deal were holders of laws governed by foreign law, generally British or Japanese, whom tendered €20 billion or 69% of bonds outstanding.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is the latest from John Williams’ ShadowStats.com.
- Payrolls Regain Pre-2001 (Not Pre-2007) Recession Levels
- February Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 14.9% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
- Trade Deficit Deteriorates in January Reporting and Prior-Period Revisions
- Money Supply M3 Growth Stalls Anew
"No. 422: February Employment, Unemployment and M3, January Trade Balance"
http://www.shadowstats.com
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
I am so sorry. I thought it was a roll of credit default swaps.
The question now is who would buy one of these things other than the
grantors themselves? That may well be the ploy. Buy them back and it
cancels the obligation.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Someone will go to Hell for this!
I think Disney World and that Red Cross should also be listed.
U.S. adds Vatican to money-laundering ‘concern’ list By Philip Pullella
VATICAN CITY | Thu Mar 8, 2012 2:05pm EST
(Reuters) – The Vatican has for the first time appeared on the State Department’s list of money-laundering centers but the tiny city-state is not rated as a high-risk country.
The 2012 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report was made public on Wednesday and Washington’s list of 190 countries classifies them in three categories: of primary concern, of concern and monitored.
The Vatican is in the second category, grouped with 67 other nations including Poland, Egypt, Ireland, Hungary and Chile.
It was added to the list because it was considered vulnerable to money-laundering and had recently established programs to prevent it, a State Department official said.
"To be considered a jurisdiction of concern merely indicates that there is a vulnerability to a financial system by money launderers. With the large volumes of international currency that goes through the Holy See, it is a system that makes it vulnerable as a potential money-laundering center," Susan Pittman of the State Department’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement, told Reuters.
Last year, the Vatican adapted internal laws to comply with international standards on financial crime.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Yes, good form ole boys, Fitch is playing the game. I imagine a
restricted default is restricted to the people who own the defaulted
upon bonds, but it is really not a default in CDS form which probably
requires a simultaneous epidemic of the plague and global thermo nuclear
war restricted to the company or government in question. The smaller
print can be seen on the CDS by putting it into an oven at 2100 degrees
Fahrenheit for 12 hours, then delivering the ashes to the ISDA for
verification.
Fitch downgrades Greece to restricted default Mar 9, 10:24 AM EST
ATHENS, Greece (AP) — The Fitch ratings agency has downgraded Greece to "restricted default" after the country secured a strong majority of private creditors to participate in a bond swap deal that will wipe off about euro105 billion from its national debt.
Friday’s move was expected, with ratings agencies having said they considered the bond swap deal to be a default. The two other major ratings agencies, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, have already downgraded Greece to default level.
Following weeks of intense discussions, the Greek government said Friday that 83.5 percent of private investors holding its government bonds were participating in a bond swap. Of the investors holding the euro177 billion ($234 billion) in bonds governed by Greek law, 85.8 percent joined.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP’s earlier story is below.
ATHENS, Greece (AP) – Greece has cleared a major hurdle in its race to avoid bankruptcy by persuading the vast majority of its private creditors to sign up to the biggest national debt writedown in history, paving the way for a second massive bailout.
Following weeks of intense discussions, the Greek government said Friday that 83.5 percent of private investors holding its government bonds were participating in a bond swap. Of the investors holding the euro177 billion ($234 billion) in bonds governed by Greek law, 85.8 percent joined.
"We have achieved an exceptional success … and I believe everyone will soon realize that this is the only way to keep the country on its feet and give it a second historic chance that it needs," Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Parliament.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The major gold market question is will the heat being turned up on
the International Swaps and Derivative Association force them at some
point soon to declare a default in Greece?
Judging from the news this morning that MF executives are taking
their large performance bonuses, I would say do not look for a change in
the decision at the ISDA short of Greece passing a begging bowl around
at zero, and maybe not even then.
My Dear Extended Family,
The time is here to consider other options. The Constitution is the foundation of this once great nation.
The Republicans cannot field a candidate with broad appeal. The
splinter party movement is well intentioned and will grow. The problem
is in the early stages the splinter party movement serves only to assure
the opposite of that it believes is the administrate of the nation.
The loyal opposition is a well oiled machine with infinite corporate finances. The loyal opposition controls MSM.
Think what the condition of the Constitution will be in 2016.
Regards,
Jim
Greece Has Defaulted: Here Is Where We Stand
After reading this, everyone should have a fairly good grasp of what happened not only today, but ever since the great (and quite endless) European financial crisis took center stage, and what to look forward to next...Unexpected Money Flows In Gold Money Flows Has My Attention
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago
Jim writes, This is why gold today is at a high presently trading at
$1715.20. The estimate of under $4 billion as the total notional value of
the contracts outstanding is a serious understatement. Go to the BIS report
to get a feel for the real size. This will fire speculation against the
rest of the Euro debt as few would buy CDS vehicles if they did not work. I
still await the word default...
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content, and more! ]]
Gold Charts and some comments
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 5 hours ago
Extreme volatility was the name of the game (ONCE AGAIN) in the gold
market in today's session as it was reacting to all manner of
crosscurrents.
First there was the payrolls or "jobs" report which took the market lower
only to be met with news of the rating agency Fitch's downgrade of Greece
to "restricted default" which seem to send the shorts into quite a frenzy
in their efforts to cover and get out. Their buying took the market up off
the lows bringing it back to unchanged on the session at which point fresh
money came into the market keeping the price in the plus column for t... more »
Chris Martenson Interviews Robert Mish: Front-Line Evidence That We are Nowhere Near a Gold Bubble
Robert
Mish has been a precious metals dealer for nearly 50 years and knows
what a gold bubble mania looks like. We are nowhere near that stage, in
his opinion. Instead, he sees a US populace largely unappreciative of
holding precious metal as a store of wealth, and engaged in a slow
process of dis-hording their gold and silver to eager foreign buyers
who are more than happy to take the bullion back to their shores. In
terms of where we are on the gold mania spectrum, he sees us at a "2"
out of 10. But he foresees a very rude awakening ahead as the populace
eventually wakes up to the increasing damage our over-debted global
economy is doing to the purchasing power of world currencies. Because
when the general investor finally realizes the protection the precious
metals offer against currency debasement, much of the retail supply will
already be out of the system in very tight hands, and largely
overseas. Moreover, when supply gets tight, there will be more
challenges to obtaining physical bullion during a buying mania than
there were during the last one in 1980. There are many fewer local
sources to exchange bullion these days as much of that business is now
transacted by online vendors dependent mail delivery to ship product,
which are more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. And be sure
you're aware of how the form you hold your bullion in will affect the
price you get during a buying frenzy, when refining capacity is
overwhelmed. You may find you gold or silver sells at a hefty discount
because it's not in a preferred format for trade.No More QE? Bill Gross Isn't Buying It, As Total Return Fund MBS Holdings Surge To New All Time High
The
Fed may be using the WSJ to spread rumors of sterilized QE, but Bill
Gross ain't buying. According ot the latest update from the world's
largest bond fund, the firm lowered its holdings of cash and synthetic
Treasury exposure to 38% of total from 41% (even as AUM increased from
$250.5 billion to $251.8 billion), while hiking MBS to 52% of AUM: not
the highest relative exposure ever, but at $131 billion in Mortgage
Backed Debt, certainly the highest in absolute terms. Margin cash
declined slightly from $87.7 to $78.1 billion, but one thing that
appears to have increased even more is Gross' conviction that QE 3, or
to borrow a recent euphemism, THE NEW QE, is coming and it will be all
about mortgage backed debt. Of secondary note is that after extending
the effective duration of its holdings to an all time high 7.58 years in
October 2011, the fund has rapidly cut duration and was at 5.68 at
last check as holding in the 1-3 year bucket saw a substantial jump:
indicating the ramp up in short duration MBS paper.The European Bailout-And-Borrow Train Has Run Out Of Track
The first instinct of any card-carrying Eurocrat is to reach for his wallet, or as clear-thinking MEP Daniel Hannan points out, someone else's wallet. His prophetic words with regard the bailout-and-borrow bandwagon, that Europe remains on, running out of track are so critical that they bear repeating as he remains incredulous that his fellow MEPs still see the one solution to a debt crisis as yet more debt...Short Greek Bonds vs Long Apple: No Contest
One
may be surprised to learn that in the past 6 months NASDApple is not
the best performing "asset class." Sure, it has generated a respectable
43% return since last September when the Greek 1 Year bond crossed a
100% yield for the first time ever (or a cash price of 54). That was
also the time when many were saying to buy Greek bonds as there was no
chance the yield could tumble much further (probably the same ones who
said to buy AAPL). As it turns out, now that the saga of Greece is
officially over, and its existing debt is being "retired" at a final
price of about 19 cents of par, here is the final tally: shorting Greek bonds since September 2011 has generated 63%, while being long Apple returned 43%. And
that's with virtually every hedge fund and their mother entering the
Apple hedge fund hotel. So yes - sometimes going against the
conventional groupthink does generate the best results. Now if only one
could short the "new" Greek bonds at par, the return would be 80% in a
millisecond as the bonds will break for trading under 20 cents.Germany Wants New European Constitution: "There Are New Centers Of Power In The World."
Germany wants to "reignite a debate over creating an EU constitution
to strengthen the bloc's ability to fight off financial troubles and
counter-balance the rising influence of emerging economies". Guido
Westerwelle noted that Germany
EU leaders "need a new constitution... as there are new centers of
power in the world." A key change that Germany wants for instance is an
amendment to incorporate tighter regional oversight of government spending and allow the EU court of Justice to strike down Spain's a member's laws if they violated fiscal discipline. Here comes the 'Pro-Quo' to the Greek Bailout 'Quid'!
Well, it is official. The restructuring deal between Greece and private investors has been pushed through and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association has ruled that this is a credit event which will trigger credit-default swap contracts. The ISDA is saying that there are approximately $3.2 billion in credit-default swap contracts on Greek debt outstanding, and most analysts expect that the global financial system will be able to absorb these losses. But still, 3.2 billion dollars is nothing to scoff at, and some of these financial institutions that wrote a lot of these contracts on Greek debt are going to be hurting. This deal with private investors may have “rescued” Greece for the moment, but the consequences of this deal are going to be felt for years to come. For example, now that Greece has gotten a sweet “haircut” from private investors, politicians in Portugal, Italy, Spain and other European nations are going to wonder why they shouldn’t get some “debt forgiveness” too. Also, private investors are almost certainly going to be less likely to want to loan money to European nations from now on. If they will be required to take a massive haircuts at some point, then why in the world would they want to lend huge amounts of money to European governments at super low interest rates? It simply does not make sense. Now that Greece has defaulted, the whole game is going to change. This is just the beginning.
Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com
from End of The American Dream:
When I was growing up, police in America generally treated women with gentleness and respect. It was generally understood that women were not to be thrown around or mistreated by police unless they were being openly violent. But in most areas of the United States those days are long gone. Sadly, many police officers seem to make it a point to be especially mean and degrading to women. All over the country women are being openly abused and humiliated by police. In America today, women are being yanked around by their hair by police, women are being pepper sprayed directly in the face by police, and women are being brutally strip-searched in front of leering male police officers. This is not how a civilized nation should be treating women and there is no excuse for treating women like dogs. The incidents that you are about to read about are absolutely shocking. They reveal just how far America has fallen. If police will treat non-violent women like dogs, then what will they do when the time comes to arrest you? That is something to think about.
Read More @ EndOfTheAmericanDream.com
from TheAlexJonesChannel:
Self regulation does not work, policy in the hands of a few, the cost of Congress, the deliberate downfall of Greece, tarriffs had benefits, Greece to be a suburb of Germany, Dell stock insider trading arrests, a step away from bankruptcy.
Part 1
Part 2
When I was growing up, police in America generally treated women with gentleness and respect. It was generally understood that women were not to be thrown around or mistreated by police unless they were being openly violent. But in most areas of the United States those days are long gone. Sadly, many police officers seem to make it a point to be especially mean and degrading to women. All over the country women are being openly abused and humiliated by police. In America today, women are being yanked around by their hair by police, women are being pepper sprayed directly in the face by police, and women are being brutally strip-searched in front of leering male police officers. This is not how a civilized nation should be treating women and there is no excuse for treating women like dogs. The incidents that you are about to read about are absolutely shocking. They reveal just how far America has fallen. If police will treat non-violent women like dogs, then what will they do when the time comes to arrest you? That is something to think about.
Read More @ EndOfTheAmericanDream.com
from TheAlexJonesChannel:
Self regulation does not work, policy in the hands of a few, the cost of Congress, the deliberate downfall of Greece, tarriffs had benefits, Greece to be a suburb of Germany, Dell stock insider trading arrests, a step away from bankruptcy.
Part 1
Part 2
Silver Update: 3/9/12 Golden Jackass
Forget KONY 2012 Its Game Change 2012
As Europe Shoots More “Easy Money,” Blanks At The Depression, Americans “Reach For Real Bullets”
from ETFDailyNews.com:
Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul: Trends Research Institute founder Gerald Celente predicts that a war with Iran is scheduled to cover up the next leg down to the financial collapse of the U.S. and political upheaval a collapse engenders.
“I’ve been in this business now since 1980, and I’m always marveled at the schemes undreamed of that they come up with,” Celente told GoldSeek Radio host Chris Waltzek. “So, when things should collapse, they often don’t, because they come up with another scheme. So, here’s the scheme undreamed of that I believe is going to be America’s worst nightmare, and that’s war with Iran.
Read More @ ETFDailyNews.com
BTFD...
Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul: Trends Research Institute founder Gerald Celente predicts that a war with Iran is scheduled to cover up the next leg down to the financial collapse of the U.S. and political upheaval a collapse engenders.
“I’ve been in this business now since 1980, and I’m always marveled at the schemes undreamed of that they come up with,” Celente told GoldSeek Radio host Chris Waltzek. “So, when things should collapse, they often don’t, because they come up with another scheme. So, here’s the scheme undreamed of that I believe is going to be America’s worst nightmare, and that’s war with Iran.
Read More @ ETFDailyNews.com
BTFD...
by Jeff Clark, Casey Research:
Do you own enough gold and silver for what lies ahead?
If 10% of your total investable assets (i.e., excluding equity in your primary residence) aren’t held in various forms of gold and silver, we at Casey Research think your portfolio is at risk.
After speaking at the Cambridge House conference last month and talking with many attendees, I came away convinced that most investors fall into one of two categories: those that hold an abundance of gold and silver (which tends to be physical forms only), and those with little or none. While both groups need to diversify, I’m a little more concerned about the second group. Here’s why.
Regardless of what you think will happen over the remainder of this decade, one thing seems virtually certain: the value of paper money will be affected, perhaps dramatically. Even if the economy slips into deflation, the deflation wouldn’t last long. A panicked Fed would print to the max and set off a wild rise in prices. This is why we’re convinced currency dilution will not only continue but accelerate.
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
Do you own enough gold and silver for what lies ahead?
If 10% of your total investable assets (i.e., excluding equity in your primary residence) aren’t held in various forms of gold and silver, we at Casey Research think your portfolio is at risk.
After speaking at the Cambridge House conference last month and talking with many attendees, I came away convinced that most investors fall into one of two categories: those that hold an abundance of gold and silver (which tends to be physical forms only), and those with little or none. While both groups need to diversify, I’m a little more concerned about the second group. Here’s why.
Regardless of what you think will happen over the remainder of this decade, one thing seems virtually certain: the value of paper money will be affected, perhaps dramatically. Even if the economy slips into deflation, the deflation wouldn’t last long. A panicked Fed would print to the max and set off a wild rise in prices. This is why we’re convinced currency dilution will not only continue but accelerate.
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
from King World News:
Today
legendary value investor, Jean-Marie Eveillard told King World News all
hell could break loose and gold is nowhere near fair value. Eveillard,
who oversees $50 billion at First Eagle Funds, had this to say about
the situation, “I think they bought some time, not so much because of
what happened with the Greek bonds but because the head of the ECB
decided to lend the commercial banks whatever they needed. This
happened in December and again in February and it totaled over on
trillion euros.”
Jean Marie Eveillard continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com
Today
legendary value investor, Jean-Marie Eveillard told King World News all
hell could break loose and gold is nowhere near fair value. Eveillard,
who oversees $50 billion at First Eagle Funds, had this to say about
the situation, “I think they bought some time, not so much because of
what happened with the Greek bonds but because the head of the ECB
decided to lend the commercial banks whatever they needed. This
happened in December and again in February and it totaled over on
trillion euros.”Jean Marie Eveillard continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com
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