A Few Quick Reminders Why NOTHING Has Been Fixed In Europe (And Why LTRO 3 Is Not Coming)

While Europe is once again back on the radar, having recently disappeared therefrom following the uneventful Greek CDS auction (which in itself was never an issue - the bigger question is any funding shortfall to fund non variation margined payments, as well as the cash to make whole UK and Swiss law bonds) following Buiter's earlier announcement that Spain is now in greater risk of default than ever, coupled with Geithner and Bernanke discussing how Europe is 'fine' in real time, here are three quick charts which will remind everyone that nothing in Europe has been fixed. In fact, it is now worse than ever. As a reminder, when thinking of Europe, the shorthand rule is: assets. And specifically, the lack thereof. Why is the ECB scrambling to collateralize every imaginable piece of trash that European banks can procure at only some valuation it knows about? Simple - quality, encumbrance and scarcity. When one understands that the heart of Europe's problem is the rapid "vaporization" of all money good assets, everything falls into place: from the ECB's response, to Europe's propensity for infinite rehypothecation, to the rapidly deteriorating financial system. It also explains why America will be increasingly on the hook, either via the Fed indirectly (via FX swaps), or indirectly via the IMF (such as two days ago when US taxpayers for the first time funded the first bailout check to the ECB using Greece as an intermediary).

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Either he seems to have changed his mind since the sound of "it’s all okay," or this is an exercise of running a test flag up a pole to see if anyone salutes it in the markets before tomorrow’s show.

BREAKING NEWS: EXCLUSIVE: Bernanke Says Risk of European Contagion Still a Concern
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will testify Wednesday that the risk of contagion from the European financial crisis still exists for large U.S. financial institutions. In testimony the Fed chief will deliver to the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, obtained exclusively by the FOX Business Network, Bernanke will also note that U.S. money market funds remain structurally vulnerable to a European crisis.
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Glimmer of HOPE: Anti-Obama Marines

Sgt. Gary Stein might be saying things about President Obama that a lot of Marines think, but some are saying he took it too far.
Stein has come under fire for stating on Facebook that he wouldn’t follow certain orders given by his commander in chief. And Marines say Stein’s not alone in his disapproval. More anti-Obama talk is being heard in the workplace and new Military Times poll data shows declining approval among military service members for the president’s job as commander in chief.
The Marine Corps depends its chain of command structure, especially in a time of war. Some Marines say Stein and other vocal Marines like him are undermining that system.
See this week’s issue for a breakdown on what is happening, what it means for the chain of command and what Marine’s are saying about it.
Read More @ militarytimes.com

Reality Check – GOP Attempts to Manipulate Ron Paul Delegates in Missouri

from PSNy2kUK :
Ben takes a look at how the delegate selection process in St. Charles Missouri was railroaded by GOP officials. The fix is in. 3/21/2012

How Do I Protect Myself Against The Black Swan Event?

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 2 hours ago

As you know, we had MF Global. What did the clients get? Less than what they had at the company. And I think eventually the financial system will be an MF Global, where you don’t get your money back from the banks and the investment banks and from the mutual funds and so forth and so on. And so I think everybody has to think to himself: how do I protect myself against the Black Swan event? - *in ETF daily news* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* 

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I Invest In Real Assets

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 2 hours ago

I personally invest in real assets. If the economy improves I'll make money because the demand for those assets will increase. On the other side, when governments get in trouble they print more money and when they do that you can protect yourself by owning real assets. - *in Opalesque* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*

Ron Paul Supporters Arrested at Missouri Caucus

from RTAmerica :
Supporters of GOP presidential hopeful Ron Paul “caused chaos” at a Missouri Caucus on Monday. Th reason behind the uproar was that they are tired of being ignored, but the organizers say Paul’s supporters were being loud and obstructive. Two Ron Paul supporters were arrested amidst the incident. So is this what is needed to get Ron Paul in the White House? Trey Stinnett, co-founder of Ron Paul Swag, helps us answer this question.

Guest Post: The Predatory State of California, Part 2

Everyone who believes the government is "here to help disadvantaged people" needs to wake up and ask what kind of government we have when due process has been replaced with "legal" looting. R.T. reported the income in question on his 2006 Federal and Arizona tax return. Wouldn't common sense, not to mention common law, suggest that the state of California should be required to ask the citizen who now resided in another state if the income in question had been reported in that state? How about notifying the citizen of the state's claim and his/her rights to present facts relating to the state's claim? There was no due process. How can this be legal in a nation that is nominally governed by rule of law? First the state steals the $1,343 and authorizes its parasitic predatory bag-"person" Wells Fargo Bank to steal another $100 for handling the state's theft. A week or two later the citizen is notified of the theft as a fait accompli. Now the onus is on the law-abiding citizen to attempt to reclaim his own money from a distant, all-powerful Kafkaesque state agency. How can this be legal in a nation supposedly operating under rule of law? Let's be very clear about what happens here in America on a daily basis...

European Sovereign Debt Shows First Weakness In 3 Months

Whether it was the truthiness of Willem Buiter's comments this morning, the sad reality of Spanish housing, or more likely the ugly fact that LTRO3 is not coming (as money-good assets evaporate), today was broadly the worst day of the year for European sovereigns. Spanish 10Y spreads jumped their most since the first day of the year, Italian yields broke back above 5% (and spreads broke back over 300bps), and Belgium, France and Austria all leaked notably wider. Since Friday's close, Italian and Spanish bonds have suffered their largest 2-day losses in over 3 months. Notably the CDS markets rolled their contracts into Monday and perhaps this derisking is real money exiting as they unwound their hedges - or more simply profit-taking on front-run LTRO carry trades but notably the LTRO Stigma has exploded in the last few days back to near its highs. European equity markets are now underperforming credit - having ridden the high-beta wave far above credit markets in the last few months (a picture we have seen in the US in Q2 2011 and HY is signaling risk-aversion rising in the US currently in the same way). Just how will the world react to another risk flare in Europe now that supposedly everything is solved?

The Sesame Street Jobs 'Recovery'

After deconstructing the labor report for signs of false positives, Michael Cembalest of JPMorgan, sees muddle-through data in the US as sustaining a below trend growth rate - noting his belief that the US economy would not withstand a withdrawal of stimulus (read promise of liqudity to come) right now. While not as ebulient as many on the street, the JPM CIO sees a US job market that is gradually getting better - as is spending. However, what keeps him up at night is the budget deficit (as we noted very specifically last night). Critically, jobless claims have just crossed a threshold that in the past has signaled risk-on is primed to pay-off as the business cycle becomes self-sustaining but at the same time, the budget deficit is at massively 'different-this-time' levels. As he notes: "But as Big Bird used to say, one of these things is not like the other: the US primary budget deficit which supports this recovery is a bigger now", and so the US economy had better improve markedly in order to merely 'pay-the-freight'. "I lose a lot of sleep over this, but I don’t know a lot of other people that do."

Antal Fekete Responds To The Bernank On The Gold Standard

Yesterday, Ben Bernanke dedicated his entire first propaganda lecture to college student to the bashing of the gold standard. Of course, he has his prerogatives: he has to validate a crumbling monetary system and the legitimacy of the Fed, first to schoolchildrden and then to soon to be college grads encumbered in massive amounts of non-dischargeable student loans. While it is decidedly arguable that the gold standard may or may not have led to the first Great Depression, there is no debate at all that it was sheer modern monetary insanity and bubble blowing (by the very same professor!) that brought us to the verge of collapse in the Second Great Depression in 2008, which had nothing to do with the gold standard. And as usual there is always an other side to the story. Presenting that here today, is Antal Fekete with "The Gold Problem Revisited."

Santelli vs Liesman Cage Match: TARP, Counterfactual Armageddon Edition

We heard it then and we will hear it again (soon we suspect) that unless some huge liquidating bailout event occurs, the world will no longer exist as we know it, iPads will no longer toast pop-tarts, and American Idol will cease to be. The M.A.D. argument remains the go-to move in the government's playbook and Rick Santelli jousts with Steve Liesman (and new glad-man Scott Wapner) in this heated exchange over the reality of TARP's saving the world (from what) and the precedents this sets going forward.

European Housing Still Slumping

After a disappointing home sales print in the US (as the shadow overhang remains heavy), some perspective on just how bad it is in Europe is worthwhile. With Spanish yields starting to blow out again, it likely comes as no surprise that, as Goldman notes, the Spanish housing market (and for that matter the periphery in general) is bad and getting worse. However, Ireland remains the worst of the worst and Goldman sees yet another growing divide between the haves and have-nots of Europe as the residential property price performance can essentially be split into four groups: Strong, Recovering, Weak, and Ireland/Spain; with the latter perceived as considerably worse than the 'reported' data would suggest. Is it any wonder that Spain trades wide of Italy again now and as Citi's Buiter noted earlier, Spain is now the fulcrum market (Spanish 10Y spreads +30bps from Friday's tights).

Howard Marks: "Common Sense Is Not Common"

As usual, Oaktree's Howard Marks cuts to the chase in his latest memo. Much as we just discussed the seeming complacency and drop in risk perception that currently exists, Marks scoffs at the 'It's Different This Time'-argument noting "there’s sure to be another cycle, another bubble and another crisis. There’ll be another time when people overpay for exciting investment ideas because their future appears limitless, and then a time of disillusionment and price collapse. There’ll be another period when leverage is embraced to excess, and then, consequently, a period when it gets people killed. And there’ll certainly be another time when people can only imagine the possibility of gain, and then one when – after huge sums have been lost – they can think only of further declines." Touching on the extremes of dysphoria and complacency that summarize the herd of global investors, he nails the reality of the crowd: "common sense isn’t common. The crowd is invariably wrong at the extremes. In the investing world, everything that’s intuitively obvious is questionable and everything that’s important is counter-intuitive."

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