It's Official - Apple Is Now Bigger Than The Entire US Retail Sector

A company whose value is dependent on the continued success of two key products, now has a larger market capitalization (at $542 billion), than the entire US retail sector (as defined by the S&P 500). Little to add here.

Biderman on Dow 6000

The storm clouds gathering behind Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, are a perfect analogy for his fascinating treatise on the key to long term bull markets and why the Dow could get cut in half. Bringing together the critical fundamental driver of P/E multiples - income growth in his view - and the historically most critical secular shift of this fundamental driver - communications breakthroughs, Biderman remains calm (for once) in his explanation for why the current low levels of income growth mean that should a new reality of less Fed exuberance (or a belief in less Fed exuberance) occur, the Dow will go to 6000 as he sees little evidence of technological innovations of the scale needed to lead the next 25 years secular bull market.

First…
Venezuelan Oil a Risky Investment for China
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/12/venezuelan-oil-a-risky-investment-for-china/

Getting little for $30 billions in loans in Venezuelan oil, Chinese officials are frustrated. Seeing the long view, the Chinese want the oil contracts and not just oil for their money. Other than money, there is very little that China can offer to Venezuela… for now.

Next…
China’s Debt Mounts to $2.78 Trillion, 43% of GDP
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/
http://www.reuters.com

As concerns over the $2.78 trillion debt mount, China’s Bank regulator will take steps to prevent defaults. They are going to also address local government debt in 2012 as well. Officials maintain that the debt is manageable as China is backed by $3.20 trillion in Forex reserves.The good news for China is that Japan is planning on purchasing 65 billion yuan in China government debt.

Next…
New Proof the U.S. Dollar is No Longer “King”
http://www.dailywealth.com/

Iceland’s Prime Minister, understanding the currency situation, implied that Iceland wil adopt the euro, or other currency.  According to a poll, Iceland citizens prefer the Canadian dollar over other currencies. Even though Iceland is 1/5000th of the world economy, it may be the canary in the mine folks.

Next…
Critical Mass: The Mispricing of Derivatives Risk And How the Financial World Ends
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com

Derivatives are credits, or potential money. When an event triggers them so that they become real, they could be the cause of a hyper-inflationary event. The explosion of the realization of these time bomb derivatives would create enormous fortunes and unpayable debts. No wonder it is a good idea to be in physical assets, like gold and silver, in the long run.

Next…
Why Army of New Buyers Will be Entering Gold & Silver
http://kingworldnews.com

James Turk believes that there is enough concern about the Greek situation for people to look more closely at Sovereign debts. He goes on to say that the paper shakeout last week in silver did not impact those owning and accumulating physical silver. Those that are naked selling paper silver will be surprised at how fast silver will shoot up. In short, Keep stacking!

Next…
Exposing the 2 Percent Oil Reserve Myth
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org

Obama stated that the U.S. holds only 2% of the planet’s proven oil reserves. Proven oil reserves are not all of our oil resources – not even close. Proven oil reserves are not stagnant. They are changing as companies explore, find, and produce oil. The reality is that the U.S. has enough recoverable oil for the next 200 years. We are a nation rich in energy resources with poor policies that do not allow us to access them.

Next…
CO2 Makes You Fat
http://sciencenordic.com

According to Danish researches, the increase in CO2 over the past few decades seems to coincide with increased weight of both people and animals in controlled conditions. It appears that the higher the CO2 levels, the more you want to eat. Excuse me as I munch down on this triple meat cheese burger with extra mayo… Mmmm… Ohh…. love bacon. Anyway, plant a tree.

Finally, Please prepare now for the escalating economic and social unrest. Good Day

Ex-Goldman Exec Comes Clean On How A "Toxic And Destructive" Goldman "Rips Its Clients Off"

Stop us when this confession from Greg Smith, a now former executive director and head of the Goldman's United States equity derivatives business in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, sounds exactly like everything we have said about the firm over the past 3+ years (and why we just can't wait for the next trading "recommendation" from Tom Stolper). "Today is my last day at Goldman Sachs. After almost 12 years at the firm — first as a summer intern while at Stanford, then in New York for 10 years, and now in London — I believe I have worked here long enough to understand the trajectory of its culture, its people and its identity. And I can honestly say that the environment now is as toxic and destructive as I have ever seen it."

Goldman Responds To Greg Smith, Darth Vader Is Leaving The Empire, And More...

Because every former employee confession has an equal and opposite reaction from "toxic and destructive" firms. And what a better way to test the PR disaster damage control skills of the firm's new global head of corporate communications: former Treasury aide and Geithner lackey Jake Siewert. In other news, Goldman is now promptly adding perpetual non-disparagement clauses to all employee contracts. Retroactively, if possible.

A 'Different' Goldman Response To Greg Smith

Andy Borowitz provides the one retort to Greg Smith that only free taxpayer money and trillions in bailouts can buy. In other news, we fully expect Mr. Smith to enact a voluntary refund of the 12 years worth of compensation and bonuses earned while working at Goldman any minute now. Or maybe epiphanies on Goldman "culture" following more than a decade of employment comes without compensation clawbacks?
 

"I Am Just Following Orders"

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 1 hour ago

The biggest farce of the week/month is the Fed's declaring that JP Morgan passed the stress tests and is allowed to buy back stock and pay dividends. How could the Fed have possibly even bothered to test JPM's enormous OTC derivatives book? Seriously. JPM has the biggest OTC derivatives exposure of any bank on the planet. There is no f-ing way in hell that the Fed can go on the assumption that JPM's OTC book is immune because of "netting." The biggest and most efficient stress test possible is reality. Let's look at the evidence: Long Term Capital, Enron, Refco, Amaranth, AI... more »

more »

Oil Prices Outlook

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 3 hours ago

I think there is a risk that oil prices will go much higher. At the same time, the bullish consensus on oil is now at one of the most elevated levels it's ever been. In other words, from a contrarian point of view, you shouldn't buy oil right now. I think it may go down somewhat. In general, if trouble breaks out in the Middle East, or if there is a war, I think the price of oil could go much higher. - *in Business Middle East* *Related, Crude Oil Futures, United States Oil Fund ETF (USO)* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock marke... more »

 

 

Travel Tip: Visit India

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 3 hours ago

If you can only visit one country in the world, visit India. It is a complete assault on your senses. Amazing natural beauty, diverse peoples and cultures, wonderful buildings and temples. It is a complete sensory experience for sight, smells, tastes. *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*

Goldman Stolpered Out On Short GBPNOK, 2.2% Loss In 3 Weeks

Earlier today, in the very appropriate context of Greg Smith, we lamented the resent disappearance of everyone's favorite FX strategist, Tomas Stolper. Speak of the squid - here he is, this time advising clients they just got Stolpered out on short GBP/NOK with a 2.2% loss in 3 weeks.

Farage On Europe: Determined But Delusional

In one of his most vociferous speeches (which is saying something for the eloquent Englishman), UKIP's Nigel Farage takes his peers in the European Parliament to task on their "determined yet delusional" attempt to keep the Euro propped up (as they desperately avoid using the 'D'-word - default). Citing many of the shocking statistics we have ever-so-quietly posted (such as 50% youth unemployment in Greece, the sovereign bond litigation against the Greek government, and the German FINMIN saying a third bailout for Greece is possible), he conjures images of the stuff-upper-lip English ignoring the carnage around them as they enjoy dinner. Striking at the heart of the problem, Farage notes that what is being done is not to save Greece (in fact it will 'crucify' them - as is already evident in their GGB2 pricing) but to save the "failing Euro project" and he ends with a critical lesson for the outspoken political leaders that surround him and their unequivocal statements

Treasuries Poised For Breakout As Key Technicals Taken Out

By now everyone and their dog knows Treasuries are on the move. The move, however, is sizable as 10Y yields break above their 200DMA for the first time in almost five months. This is the second largest two-day jump in yields in 16 months as the market wonders whether this is the breakout where 's##t gets real' or a test of resistance at the October 2011 spike highs. Only AAPL time will tell.

The Ben Bernank's Latest Take On The Recovery: "Frustratingly Slow"

The Fed Chairman, who is too busy to tweet at the moment, has just released his pre-recorded speech on Community Banking. In its we find the following pearl: "Despite some recent signs of improvement, the recovery has been frustratingly slow, constraining opportunities for profitable lending." Wait, hold on, yesterday the same Chairman told an eager headline scanning robotic world that economic growth was upgraded from "modest" to "moderate" - so which is it? Or will the Fed merely feed the HFT robots whatever cherry picked keywords are needed to nudge the market in the appropriate direction as required? Oh wait, we forgot... Election year. Carry on.

As Fed Comes To Twitter Will US Debt Be Limited To 140 Zeroes?

As of this morning the Federal Reserve is officially on twitter and can be followed at @federalreserve. This is truly great news as it means that the US debt will have to be limited to at most 140 zeroes! Then again, after yesterday who cares about the Fed?Where is uber-boss Jamie Dimon's twitter account?

Art Cashin On The Oldest Sovereign Bankruptcy And The UK's Bitter Experience With Perpetual Bonds

Greece just defaulted. Again. No surprise - the country has been in default half the time since 1820. Curiously, Greece is also the first recorded sovereign defaulted as Art Cashin notes in his piece today. He also reminds us that the UK's plans to return the 100 Year bond are nothing new. In fact, the Consol, or the UK perpetual, was around in the 1700's. Things did not work out very well back then...

Is Another Record ECB Margin Call Impairing Gold Again?

In an update of our post from a week ago, the ECB has increased its margin calls on European banks by EUR162 million this week to another record high of over EUR17.3 billion. While our pointing out of this huge jump from 'average' historical margin calls last week was met with - it's temporary/transitory due to temporary/transitory ineligibility of defaulted (and since undefaulted) Greek bonds (which given the rise this week has now been proven incorrect) or the more prosaic "don't worry, be happy", we remain concerned at both the velocity and now sustained size of these margin calls (as clearly collateral quality has dropped rapidly and remained weak). This is concerning since it would appear we had a good week for collateral (risk assets) in general, so we can only imagine what garbage is clogging the ECB's balance sheet. The side-effect of this appears to be (as we pointed out here) that Gold (the banks' remaining quality collateral) is being sold to cover these margin calls just as it was in September 2011 (though lease rates have not squeezed as much this time). We can only imagine the size of these margin calls should we happen to have a week where AAPL stock drops or BTPs don't rally (broad collateral actually loses value), but that seems impossible anyway.

"Spain Is Fine" - February Spanish Bank Borrowings From ECB Rise To Record

And how can it not be? As Banco de Espana just released earlier today, Spanish banks have borrowed a record €152 billion in February, a €19 billion increase from January. At least we now know what the capital shortfall was in Spain since pre-LTRO days, when total borrowings were €98 billion: "LTRO is for carry trade purposes"... right. So thank you European tax payers, and the 'bad bank' hedge fund formerly known as the ECB - you just bought Spain a few more months, however with your actions you guaranteed that nobody will change any part of their destructive behavior, and merely enable even more solvency crises in the future, which will be band-aided with even more trillions in free money, and so on, until the global central banks need to show their expansion not on a weekly but millisecond basis. And oh yes, this explains why Blackrock is tripping over itself this morning recommending Spanish bonds, which "may offer opportunities for long-term investors" - perhaps the same profit opportunity that the ECB had on its Greek bond holdings purchased at 80 cents of par and collapsed at about 20.





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