By Jeff Clark, Casey Research:
Inflation is a natural consequence of loose government monetary
policy. If those policies get too loose, hyperinflation can occur. As
gold investors, we’d like to know if the precious metals would keep pace
in this extreme scenario.
Hyperinflation is an extremely rapid period of inflation, but when does inflation (which can be manageable) cross the line and become out-of-control hyperinflation? Philip Cagan, one of the very first researchers of this phenomenon, defines hyperinflation as “an inflation rate of 50% or more in a single month,” something largely inconceivable to the average investor.
While there can be multiple reasons for inflation, hyperinflation historically has one root cause: excessive money supply. Debts and deficits reach unsustainable levels, and politicians resort to diluting the currency to cover their expenses. A tipping point is reached, and investors lose confidence in the currency.
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
For the first time in my career, I see the international
establishment, sometimes called the New World Order, facing a crisis so
large that its very survival is at stake. For the first time, these
people are scared.
There are not many of them. In his book, “Superclass,” author David Rothkopf estimates that there are only about 6000 people at the top of the pyramid of world power and influence. They are mostly males, and at least a third of them have attended America’s most prestigious universities. Most of the others have attended comparable universities in Europe.
The crisis in Europe is clearly beyond anything that this generation of establishment leaders has ever seen. The last time that anything like this faced the European establishment, it led to World War II.
During the entire postwar period, the United States has been the dominant force in the West. The United States government through the Marshall Plan wrote the checks to keep the European governments afloat, and it funded most of NATO, the mutual defense system that was set up to constrain the expansion of the Soviet Union.
Read More @ ThePoog.com
Infamous
for his prediction of the great recession, Europe's demise, and the
collapse of the US financial system (as well as profiting extremely
handsomely from said predictions), so well captured in Michael Lewis'
book "The Big Short", UCLA's Dr. Michael Burry undertakes UCLA's
Economics Department's commencement speech with much aplomb. In this
"age of infinite distraction", the astounding truthiness of this 15
minute speech is stunning from single-sentence summation of
Europe's convulsions that "when the entitled elect themselves, the party
accelerates, and the brutal hangover is inevitable" he reminds us that
Californians, and indeed all Americans, should take note. A quarter-of-an-hour well spent from a self-described 'chicken-little' who was "just trying to figure it all out".
Inflation is a natural consequence of loose government monetary
policy. If those policies get too loose, hyperinflation can occur. As
gold investors, we’d like to know if the precious metals would keep pace
in this extreme scenario.Hyperinflation is an extremely rapid period of inflation, but when does inflation (which can be manageable) cross the line and become out-of-control hyperinflation? Philip Cagan, one of the very first researchers of this phenomenon, defines hyperinflation as “an inflation rate of 50% or more in a single month,” something largely inconceivable to the average investor.
While there can be multiple reasons for inflation, hyperinflation historically has one root cause: excessive money supply. Debts and deficits reach unsustainable levels, and politicians resort to diluting the currency to cover their expenses. A tipping point is reached, and investors lose confidence in the currency.
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
by Gary North The Poog:
For the first time in my career, I see the international
establishment, sometimes called the New World Order, facing a crisis so
large that its very survival is at stake. For the first time, these
people are scared.There are not many of them. In his book, “Superclass,” author David Rothkopf estimates that there are only about 6000 people at the top of the pyramid of world power and influence. They are mostly males, and at least a third of them have attended America’s most prestigious universities. Most of the others have attended comparable universities in Europe.
The crisis in Europe is clearly beyond anything that this generation of establishment leaders has ever seen. The last time that anything like this faced the European establishment, it led to World War II.
During the entire postwar period, the United States has been the dominant force in the West. The United States government through the Marshall Plan wrote the checks to keep the European governments afloat, and it funded most of NATO, the mutual defense system that was set up to constrain the expansion of the Soviet Union.
Read More @ ThePoog.com
from, Business Insider:
Last night the Asia Society, in conjunction with the New York Review of Books, hosted a speaker series with guest speakers Ian Johnson – Beijing-based writer and foreign correspondent for the Wall Street Journal – and Roderick MacFarquhar,
a Professor of History and former Director of the John King Fairbank
Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University. The session was
moderated by the Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the
Asia Society in New York, Orville Schell.
The panel topic was, “How Stable is China: Can Its Economic Miracle Continue Under Its Current Political System?”
In the process of answering that question, three things were made very clear: no one is quite sure what China means anymore, no one is quite sure how much China is making progress, and no one is quite sure where China’s power lies.
Johnson started by explaining that, “during the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, China meant wealth and prosperity. With the opening up of the world, and especially through his mandated special economic zones (SEZ’s), people were able to get rich extremely quick.”
Read More @ Business Insider.com
Last night the Asia Society, in conjunction with the New York Review of Books, hosted a speaker series with guest speakers Ian Johnson – Beijing-based writer and foreign correspondent for the Wall Street Journal – and Roderick MacFarquhar,
a Professor of History and former Director of the John King Fairbank
Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University. The session was
moderated by the Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the
Asia Society in New York, Orville Schell.The panel topic was, “How Stable is China: Can Its Economic Miracle Continue Under Its Current Political System?”
In the process of answering that question, three things were made very clear: no one is quite sure what China means anymore, no one is quite sure how much China is making progress, and no one is quite sure where China’s power lies.
Johnson started by explaining that, “during the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, China meant wealth and prosperity. With the opening up of the world, and especially through his mandated special economic zones (SEZ’s), people were able to get rich extremely quick.”
Read More @ Business Insider.com
Here Is What Even Goldman's Clients Missed
Ask 10 people in New York who won the Greek election, and chances are 8 will respond correctly. Yet among all the manic-depressive euphoria surrounding Europe, most will likely have missed the following. Not that there's nothing wrong with that: as Goldman's David Kostin explains, even Goldman clients were caught unaware.When A New LTRO In The Elimination Stages Of Euro 2012 Just May Not Be Enough
The Euro 2012 football competition has entered its elimination stages. According to Citi's Matt King - one of the few respectable strategists out there - the elimination round has also arrived for the other EURo. There is still hope, but it is rapidly fading, and every additional half-baked, semi-efficient "resolution" only confirms the skepticism of the ever-increasing crowd of naysayers: summits, summits, and more summits, all the while nothing changes, and the German population: the only source of any European stability, is becoming increasingly belligerent toward the entire European experiment. The other problem: we are now in the first session of extra time. So even as Germany inches ever closer to winning it all in the European football arena, will the tradeoff be a loss for everyone else who now relies exclusively on German benevolence? A few days ago, David Marsh, writing "Don’t count on Germany’s economic surrender" in the FT, made just this point. And he is right. Yet the capital markets, after nearly throwing in the towel on Spain last week, have rebounded strongly giving some hope that this time something may be different. It won't be. King explains.Dr. Michael "The Big Short" Burry's "Brutal Hangover Is Inevitable" State-Of-The-World UCLA Commencement Speech
Infamous
for his prediction of the great recession, Europe's demise, and the
collapse of the US financial system (as well as profiting extremely
handsomely from said predictions), so well captured in Michael Lewis'
book "The Big Short", UCLA's Dr. Michael Burry undertakes UCLA's
Economics Department's commencement speech with much aplomb. In this
"age of infinite distraction", the astounding truthiness of this 15
minute speech is stunning from single-sentence summation of
Europe's convulsions that "when the entitled elect themselves, the party
accelerates, and the brutal hangover is inevitable" he reminds us that
Californians, and indeed all Americans, should take note. A quarter-of-an-hour well spent from a self-described 'chicken-little' who was "just trying to figure it all out".
by Pepe Escobar, Alternet.org:
As convenient as it is for someone in a cubicle in the Nevada desert
to press a button and incinerate a Pashtun wedding party in North
Waziristan, now, with only a click, anyone can download a 359 KB file available
on Amazon for only $8.99 – including free wireless delivery – and learn
everything there is to learn about All Things Drone.
It’s fitting that Terminator Planet: The First History of Drone Warfare, 2001-2050 has been put together by Tom Engelhardt – editor, MC of the TomDispatch website and “a national treasure”, in the correct appraisal of University of Michigan professor Juan Cole – and TomDispatch’s associate editor Nick Turse, author of the seminal 2008 study The Complex: How the Military Invades Our Everyday Lives.
This is essentially Tom and Nick’s revised and updated body of work detailing the uber-dystopian Dronescape over the past few years – spanning everything from secret Drone Empire bases to offshore droning; a Philip Dick-style exercise on a more than plausible drone-on-drone war off East Africa in 2050; and a postscript inimitably titled, “America as a Shining Drone
Read More @ Alternet.Org
As convenient as it is for someone in a cubicle in the Nevada desert
to press a button and incinerate a Pashtun wedding party in North
Waziristan, now, with only a click, anyone can download a 359 KB file available
on Amazon for only $8.99 – including free wireless delivery – and learn
everything there is to learn about All Things Drone.It’s fitting that Terminator Planet: The First History of Drone Warfare, 2001-2050 has been put together by Tom Engelhardt – editor, MC of the TomDispatch website and “a national treasure”, in the correct appraisal of University of Michigan professor Juan Cole – and TomDispatch’s associate editor Nick Turse, author of the seminal 2008 study The Complex: How the Military Invades Our Everyday Lives.
This is essentially Tom and Nick’s revised and updated body of work detailing the uber-dystopian Dronescape over the past few years – spanning everything from secret Drone Empire bases to offshore droning; a Philip Dick-style exercise on a more than plausible drone-on-drone war off East Africa in 2050; and a postscript inimitably titled, “America as a Shining Drone
Read More @ Alternet.Org
by Rick Rozoff, BoilingFrogsPost.com:
On June 18 Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen met with Saudi
Arabia’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Nizar Madani at the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.
The head of the Western military alliance extended an invitation to the Persian Gulf kingdom to join NATO’s partnership program in the region, stating “Saudi Arabia is a key player in the region and NATO would welcome the opportunity to engage the Kingdom’s government as a partner in the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative.”
The latter was launched in 2004 during the NATO summit in the Turkish city which gave the partnership its name, part of a series of sweeping measures that also saw the largest-ever one-time expansion of NATO membership – the absorption of seven new nations in Eastern Europe, including the first former Yugoslav and first three former Soviet republics – as well as committing the bloc to upgrading its other Middle Eastern military partnership program, the Mediterranean Dialogue (whose members are Algeria,
Read More @ BoilingFrogsPost.com
On June 18 Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen met with Saudi
Arabia’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Nizar Madani at the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.The head of the Western military alliance extended an invitation to the Persian Gulf kingdom to join NATO’s partnership program in the region, stating “Saudi Arabia is a key player in the region and NATO would welcome the opportunity to engage the Kingdom’s government as a partner in the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative.”
The latter was launched in 2004 during the NATO summit in the Turkish city which gave the partnership its name, part of a series of sweeping measures that also saw the largest-ever one-time expansion of NATO membership – the absorption of seven new nations in Eastern Europe, including the first former Yugoslav and first three former Soviet republics – as well as committing the bloc to upgrading its other Middle Eastern military partnership program, the Mediterranean Dialogue (whose members are Algeria,
Read More @ BoilingFrogsPost.com
By David Galland, Casey Research:
Having just returned from a whirlwind trip of Europe, and heading out
almost immediately for ten days hopping around Argentina and Paraguay, I
suspect today’s missive is going to be fast and furious. My apologies
in advance for any improperly turned phrases or bon mots that are less
than bon.
As I continue to hear from dear readers that they rather enjoy the musical accompaniments, today I thought I would share a longer piece forwarded to me by a new colleague here at Casey Research. It’s the full set of Pink Floyd’s reunion show at Live 8 in 2005. While the spring of youth has long ago left their steps, they do a pretty amazing job at rocking the house.
Burn the Boats, Kill the Chickens
Although I did manage to squeeze in a few hours in the Portuguese sun chasing a little white ball, the purpose of my just-concluded whirlwind trip – a Sunday-to-Sunday jaunt with stay-overs in four different countries, including two of the PIIGS, Ireland and Portugal, and pending PIIGS member France twice – was mostly business.
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
Having just returned from a whirlwind trip of Europe, and heading out
almost immediately for ten days hopping around Argentina and Paraguay, I
suspect today’s missive is going to be fast and furious. My apologies
in advance for any improperly turned phrases or bon mots that are less
than bon.As I continue to hear from dear readers that they rather enjoy the musical accompaniments, today I thought I would share a longer piece forwarded to me by a new colleague here at Casey Research. It’s the full set of Pink Floyd’s reunion show at Live 8 in 2005. While the spring of youth has long ago left their steps, they do a pretty amazing job at rocking the house.
Burn the Boats, Kill the Chickens
Although I did manage to squeeze in a few hours in the Portuguese sun chasing a little white ball, the purpose of my just-concluded whirlwind trip – a Sunday-to-Sunday jaunt with stay-overs in four different countries, including two of the PIIGS, Ireland and Portugal, and pending PIIGS member France twice – was mostly business.
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com
The
computer error that has affected thousands of NatWest customers (by
shutting down all banking transactions for days) has been fixed, a
spokeswoman has said.
from BBC News:
But the company, owned by the RBS group, is still working through a long backlog of accounts, she said.
The technical fault has disrupted payments to and from NatWest, RBS and Ulster Bank accounts since Thursday.
Branches at these banks are opening longer this weekend to help customers, who have reported unpaid salaries and rent payments not being processed.
More than 1,300 branches will stay open until 16:00 or 18:00 on Saturday and some will also open on Sunday.
Susan Allen, director of customer services at the RBS Group, said the underlying computer failure had been resolved but there was still a lot of accounts to update through the day.
There’s a strange statistic in the UK banking industry that suggests we’re more likely to get divorced than change our bank account. Despite a sharp rise in complaints against banks this year, it seems it’s too much trouble to ditch our accounts and take our money elsewhere.
Read More @ BBC.co.uk
from BBC News:
But the company, owned by the RBS group, is still working through a long backlog of accounts, she said.The technical fault has disrupted payments to and from NatWest, RBS and Ulster Bank accounts since Thursday.
Branches at these banks are opening longer this weekend to help customers, who have reported unpaid salaries and rent payments not being processed.
More than 1,300 branches will stay open until 16:00 or 18:00 on Saturday and some will also open on Sunday.
Susan Allen, director of customer services at the RBS Group, said the underlying computer failure had been resolved but there was still a lot of accounts to update through the day.
There’s a strange statistic in the UK banking industry that suggests we’re more likely to get divorced than change our bank account. Despite a sharp rise in complaints against banks this year, it seems it’s too much trouble to ditch our accounts and take our money elsewhere.
Read More @ BBC.co.uk
by Reggie Middleton, BoomBustBlog.com:
Am I right about the Bear?
Despite the Bear Stearns negative developments, and my opinion of its value, Bear Stearns has managed to find investors as was mentioned earlier in the insider transaction section. These are accomplished and wealthy investors to boot. My concern is that so many astute, accomplished and economically powerful investors have failed to realize and fully appreciate the depth and breadth of the current real asset recession, burst bubble, and quite possibly asset depression we have recently entered. This has destroyed the value of many bottom fishing value investors, both intitutional and retail.
A brief perusal through my site reveals a fairly decent track record of recognizing the potential damage to be done by this “devaluation diaspora”. Only time shall tell the tale of Bear Stearn’s contribution to this list. Twelve months to date, BSC has lost over 50% of its share value and it near ground zero of the housing bubble burst. Observing the share price patterns of the companies who were actually at ground zero shows that a 50% is far from the midway mark when tracking from the peak of the bubble. I am certain their may be financial concerns such as well capitalized investment funds, foreign firms/funds, and/or stateside banks who have, and are considering a buyout. Yet, as I have stated with Ambac Financial, MBIA, Beazer Homes, and Countrywide during similar institutional forays into attempted vulture investing – Caveat Emptor: Seeking the bottom of a bottomless pit is a hazardous venture, indeed.
Read More @ BoomBustBlog.com
Am I right about the Bear?Despite the Bear Stearns negative developments, and my opinion of its value, Bear Stearns has managed to find investors as was mentioned earlier in the insider transaction section. These are accomplished and wealthy investors to boot. My concern is that so many astute, accomplished and economically powerful investors have failed to realize and fully appreciate the depth and breadth of the current real asset recession, burst bubble, and quite possibly asset depression we have recently entered. This has destroyed the value of many bottom fishing value investors, both intitutional and retail.
A brief perusal through my site reveals a fairly decent track record of recognizing the potential damage to be done by this “devaluation diaspora”. Only time shall tell the tale of Bear Stearn’s contribution to this list. Twelve months to date, BSC has lost over 50% of its share value and it near ground zero of the housing bubble burst. Observing the share price patterns of the companies who were actually at ground zero shows that a 50% is far from the midway mark when tracking from the peak of the bubble. I am certain their may be financial concerns such as well capitalized investment funds, foreign firms/funds, and/or stateside banks who have, and are considering a buyout. Yet, as I have stated with Ambac Financial, MBIA, Beazer Homes, and Countrywide during similar institutional forays into attempted vulture investing – Caveat Emptor: Seeking the bottom of a bottomless pit is a hazardous venture, indeed.
Read More @ BoomBustBlog.com
by Laura H, SurvivalBlog.com:
As a theater teacher and director I am primed for drama. I hunger for
it. But what to do while waiting for the aliens to land, the dollar to
collapse, the bombs to start flying, or Yellowstone to have its say? I have always told my actors, don’t rehearse it, do it.
After all, preparation is important, but performing is better. Act as
if you have an audience now and do it the way you will perform it. I
am new to this “prepping” phenomenon. It can be an overwhelming, and
for some of my friends, an inexplicable thing. So what can I share that
is useful? For those well into the process, maybe just a confirmation
of things they already know and do. For those who are just starting out
and wonder what to do first, I would offer the following Drama Queen
version of prepping and sustainable living.
The saying “write what you know” inspired me to use theatrical terms to outline ways I have become more prepared. My former Navy Corpsman husband and I have made some simple but profound changes in our lifestyle. While we may not be living the post-apocalyptic dream, we know that current conditions in this world aren’t exactly normal, and they don’t seem to be getting any better. Crazy weather? Check. Fossil fuel? On the way out. Economic stability? Um, since when? So, it makes sense to live now the way we may be forced to live later. In a very real sense, The End Of The World As We Know It has already arrived.
Read More @ SurvivalBlog.com
As a theater teacher and director I am primed for drama. I hunger for
it. But what to do while waiting for the aliens to land, the dollar to
collapse, the bombs to start flying, or Yellowstone to have its say? I have always told my actors, don’t rehearse it, do it.
After all, preparation is important, but performing is better. Act as
if you have an audience now and do it the way you will perform it. I
am new to this “prepping” phenomenon. It can be an overwhelming, and
for some of my friends, an inexplicable thing. So what can I share that
is useful? For those well into the process, maybe just a confirmation
of things they already know and do. For those who are just starting out
and wonder what to do first, I would offer the following Drama Queen
version of prepping and sustainable living. The saying “write what you know” inspired me to use theatrical terms to outline ways I have become more prepared. My former Navy Corpsman husband and I have made some simple but profound changes in our lifestyle. While we may not be living the post-apocalyptic dream, we know that current conditions in this world aren’t exactly normal, and they don’t seem to be getting any better. Crazy weather? Check. Fossil fuel? On the way out. Economic stability? Um, since when? So, it makes sense to live now the way we may be forced to live later. In a very real sense, The End Of The World As We Know It has already arrived.
Read More @ SurvivalBlog.com
from Off Grid Survival:
When planning for a SHTF scenario, there’s really only one thing that we can be sure of; Survival will be a bigger challenge than you ever believed possible.
While you can definitely take measures to prepare yourself for what’s
to come, when you’re talking about a SHTF scenario, all bets are really
off.
Here are 10 things that you may have never considered when planning for a SHTF survival situation.
1. No Law Enforcement
During an extreme SHTF scenario, it is very likely that law enforcement and emergency responders will be nonexistent. Even during small scale disasters, law enforcement officers often leave to take care of their own families first. When things go bad (empty grocery stores, no utilities, mass riots, violence, etc.) you are more than likely going to have to defend yourself.
2. Fake Law Enforcement
In a SHTF Scenario you need to be on the lookout for everything including people impersonating law enforcement and military personnel. During a catastrophic event, you will most likely see criminals preying on the innocent by pretending to be either police or military officers. You have to be able to quickly determine who is who, or stay away from people at all costs.
Read More @ OffGridSurvival.com
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
UPDATE 1-EU ministers focus on banking union, help for Spain Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:13pm IST
By John O’Donnell and Robin Emmott
LUXEMBOURG, June 22 (Reuters) – European finance ministers examined ways on Friday to bolster weak banks and break the link between troubled lenders and indebted countries, with concerns about Spain’s stricken banking system at the top of their minds.
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has urged the euro zone to channel aid directly to struggling banks rather than via governments, but Germany and others are opposed to such support, which is not possible under current euro zone rules.
The discussion is part of a broader debate about how the European Union or at least those countries in the euro zone can move towards a ‘banking union’, including a joint deposit guarantee scheme and a fund to wind down failing banks, and get on top of the 2-1/2-year sovereign debt crisis.
Those issues will be discussed in detail by EU leaders at a summit in Brussels on June 28-29.
Lagarde said on Thursday that by allowing the euro zone’s rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, to aid stricken lenders directly rather than via a programme of government aid, it would break the bank-to-sovereign debt link.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Ministry of [Un]Truth By Eric Sprott & David Baker
Speaking at a Brussels conference back in April 2011, Eurogroup President Jean Claude Juncker notably stated during a panel discussion that "when it becomes serious, you have to lie." He was referring to situations where the act of "pre-indicating" decisions on eurozone policy could fuel speculation that could harm the markets and undermine their policies’ effectiveness.1 Everyone understands that the authorities sometimes lie in order to promote calm in the markets, but it was unexpected to hear such a high-level official actually admit to doing so. They’re not supposed to admit that they lie. It is also somewhat disconcerting given the fact that virtually every economic event we have lived through since that time can very easily be described as "serious". Bank runs in Spain and Greece are indeed "serious", as is the weak economic data now emanating from Europe, the US and China. Should we assume that the authorities have been lying more frequently than usual over the past year?
When former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan denied and down-played the US housing bubble back in 2004 and 2005, the market didn’t realize how wrong he was until the bubble burst in 2007-2008. The same applies to the current Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, when he famously told US Congress in March of 2007 that "At this juncture… the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained."2 They weren’t necessarily lying, per se, they just underestimated the seriousness of the problem. At this point in the crisis, however, we are hard pressed to believe anything uttered by a central planner or financial authority figure. How many times have we heard that the eurozone crisis has been solved? And how many times have we heard officials flat out lie while the roof is burning over their heads?
Back in March, following the successful €530 billion launch of LTRO II, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi assured Germany’s Bild Newspaper that "The worst is over… the situation is stabilizing."3 The situation certainly did stabilize… for about a month. And then the bank runs started up again and sovereign bond yields spiked. Draghi has since treaded the awkward plank of promoting calm while slipping out enough bad news to ensure the eurocrats stay on their toes. As ING economist Carsten Brzeski aptly described at an ECB press conference in early June, "Listening to the ECB’s macro-economic assessment was a bit like listening to whistles in the dark… It looks as if they are becoming increasingly worried, but do not want to show it."4 And the situation has now deteriorated to the point where Draghi can’t possibly show it. Although Draghi does now warn of "serious downside risks" in the eurozone, he maintains that they are, in his words, "mostly to do with heightened uncertainty".5 Of course they are, Mario. Europe’s issues are simply due to a vague feeling of unease felt among the EU populace. They have nothing to do with fact that the EU banking system is on the verge of collapsing in on itself.
When Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy assured the Spanish press that "There will be no rescue of the Spanish banking sector" on May 28th, the Spanish government announced a $125 billion bailout for its banks a mere two weeks later.6 This apparent deceit was not lost on the Spanish left, who were quick to dub him "Lying Rajoy". But Mr. Rajoy didn’t seem phased in the least. As the Guardian writes, "Even when the outpouring of outrage forced Rajoy to call a hasty press conference the next day, he still refused to use the word "bailout" – or any other word for that matter – and referred mysteriously to "what happened on Saturday". He went as far as to say that Spain’s emergency had been "resolved" ("thanks to my pressure", he said). He then took a plane to Poland to watch the national football team play ("the players deserve my presence")."7 Sound credible to you?
Then there are the bankers. Back in April, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon blithely dismissed media reports as a "tempest in a teapot" that referred to massively outsized derivative positions held by the bank’s traders in the Chief Investment Office in London. That "tempest" was soon revealed to have resulted in a $2 billion trading loss for the bank roughly four weeks later. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee this past week, Dimon explained that "This particular synthetic credit portfolio was intended to earn a lot of revenue if there was a crisis. I consider that a hedge."8 He went on to add that regulators "can’t stop something like this from happening. It was purely a management mistake."9 That’s just wonderful. Can we expect more ‘mistakes’ of this nature in the coming months given JP Morgan’s estimated $70 trillion in derivatives exposure? And will the US taxpayer willingly bail out JP Morgan when it does? Everyone knows the derivatives position wasn’t a hedge – but what else is Dimon going to say? That JP Morgan is making reckless derivatives bets overseas with other people’s money that’s backstopped by the US government? Credibility is leaving the system.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Syria shoots down warplane from Turkey
Syria says the Turkish aircraft violated its airspace over the Mediterranean. The fate of two pilots is unknown. Turkey’s leader says his nation will act ‘decisively’ after details emerge. By Patrick J. McDonnell and Rima Marrouch, Los Angeles Times
June 22, 2012, 6:05 p.m.
BEIRUT — Syria shot down a warplane from Turkey on Friday that it said had violated its airspace, an event that illustrated the potential for the Syrian conflict to spill across its borders and risked a further deterioration in relations between neighbors that once were close allies.
In a terse statement after midnight, the office of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Syria had downed a Turkish plane that disappeared about midday off the Syrian coast. The fate of the two pilots was unknown.
The official Syrian Arab News Agency, known as SANA, said the aircraft, flying low and fast, violated Syrian airspace over the Mediterranean Sea and was shot down by ground fire. It said the plane was hit about half a mile from the Syrian coast and crashed into the sea.
The incident appears to be another example of how the Syria conflict has elevated regional tensions. Syria sits in the heart of the volatile Middle East and its instability has already had ramifications in Turkey, Lebanon and elsewhere.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Jim,
A great source of live coverage of the debt crisis from The Telegraph: as an example, from yesterday June-21-2012 live coverage:
"22.14 Christine Lagarde says: "We are clearly seeing additional tension and acute stress applying to both banks and sovereigns in the euro area." She’s called for more relaxed monetary policy by the ECB, and for eurobonds to be issued."
(…)
" 21.57 Jean-Claude Juncker (current Prime Minister of Luxembourg since 20 January 1995) says that he expects the troika will head to Greece on Monday, and that he also expects an updated memorandum of understanding with Greece. He also confirmed that €1bn will be paid from the eurozone bailout fund before the end of June, to keep the country ticking over. "
Link to full article…
Best regards,
CIGA Christopher
Cash-strapped Municipalities Across America CIGA Eric
As desperate, cash-strapped municipalities across America search for answers, these outcomes will become more common.
Headline: Stockton bankruptcy likely to be costly mess
SAN FRANCISCO — A costly mess, including court battles with employees and lenders that could stretch over years, is likely to await Stockton, California, if it cannot reach a last-minute deal with creditors and becomes the largest U.S. city ever to file for bankruptcy. "A Chapter 9 bankruptcy proceeding is complicated, expensive, time-consuming and uncertain," said James Spiotto, a lawyer and municipal bankruptcy specialist at the Chapman and Cutler law firm in Chicago. "More likely than not, you’re not going to get your desired result." Stockton on Wednesday provided an initial outline of what a "bankruptcy budget" might look like for the city of 292,000 as a June 25 deadline for mediation talks with bond holders, employee unions and others approaches. The city proposes to stop payments on much of its debt and impose wage and benefit cuts including the elimination of all retiree healthcare benefits after a one-year transition period. Stockton has already slashed its workforce sharply in recent years, cutting the police force by 25 percent, the fire department by 30 percent, and all other departments by more than 40 percent. But it still must find a way to close a $26 million gap in its $162 million budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1 -and people involved in the mediation sessions consider a bankruptcy filing to be all but inevitable.
Source: msnbc.msn.com
Headline: Financially-strapped Nevada city declared disaster
NORTH LAS VEGAS, Nev. (AP) — There are no signs of rioters, wind-damaged homes or flooding. The brand new City Hall features gleaming marble floors and the public recreation centers offer Zumba, karate and Pilates classes. Despite all of its suburban trimmings, North Las Vegas is officially a disaster area. After five years of declining property taxes, massive layoffs and questionable spending, leaders of the blue-collar, family-oriented city outside Las Vegas declared a state of emergency, invoking a rarely used state law crafted for unforeseen disasters. No matter that the statute, which allows municipalities to suspend union contracts and avoid paying scheduled salary increases, doesn’t actually include fiscal emergencies among the list of potential disasters. "It says, in case of ‘emergency such as.’ You can’t list how many different types of emergencies there are in the world," City Council member Wade Wagner said of the move, which will save the city $9 million.
Source: news.yahoo.com
When planning for a SHTF scenario, there’s really only one thing that we can be sure of; Survival will be a bigger challenge than you ever believed possible.
While you can definitely take measures to prepare yourself for what’s
to come, when you’re talking about a SHTF scenario, all bets are really
off.Here are 10 things that you may have never considered when planning for a SHTF survival situation.
1. No Law Enforcement
During an extreme SHTF scenario, it is very likely that law enforcement and emergency responders will be nonexistent. Even during small scale disasters, law enforcement officers often leave to take care of their own families first. When things go bad (empty grocery stores, no utilities, mass riots, violence, etc.) you are more than likely going to have to defend yourself.
2. Fake Law Enforcement
In a SHTF Scenario you need to be on the lookout for everything including people impersonating law enforcement and military personnel. During a catastrophic event, you will most likely see criminals preying on the innocent by pretending to be either police or military officers. You have to be able to quickly determine who is who, or stay away from people at all costs.
Read More @ OffGridSurvival.com
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
There is a big problem brewing again in the OTC derivative market.
A major international financial auditing firm is currently involved
in a massive project on Wall Street that presently has over 900+
consultants involved, which is massive and beyond even the size/scope of
the Fannie Mae restatement several years ago. They’re grabbing any
senior financial analyst and software expert that they can to help this
"unnamed" major Wall Street bank calculate valuations for a suddenly
devaluing portfolio of Credit Default Obligations that they have heavily
invested in. This auditing firm is charging nearly double their normal
billing rate and is getting it, no questions asked.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Whatever is required will be provided. The longer the Fed plays
chicken with the US legislative the greater the need for liquidity will
be.
There is no way Bernanke is going to guarantee that Obama loses the
upcoming presidential elections by checking the statistics to death. QE
to Infinity is guaranteed by these circumstances.
UPDATE 1-EU ministers focus on banking union, help for Spain Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:13pm IST
By John O’Donnell and Robin Emmott
LUXEMBOURG, June 22 (Reuters) – European finance ministers examined ways on Friday to bolster weak banks and break the link between troubled lenders and indebted countries, with concerns about Spain’s stricken banking system at the top of their minds.
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has urged the euro zone to channel aid directly to struggling banks rather than via governments, but Germany and others are opposed to such support, which is not possible under current euro zone rules.
The discussion is part of a broader debate about how the European Union or at least those countries in the euro zone can move towards a ‘banking union’, including a joint deposit guarantee scheme and a fund to wind down failing banks, and get on top of the 2-1/2-year sovereign debt crisis.
Those issues will be discussed in detail by EU leaders at a summit in Brussels on June 28-29.
Lagarde said on Thursday that by allowing the euro zone’s rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, to aid stricken lenders directly rather than via a programme of government aid, it would break the bank-to-sovereign debt link.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Lies are a must for political leaders
Ministry of [Un]Truth By Eric Sprott & David Baker
Speaking at a Brussels conference back in April 2011, Eurogroup President Jean Claude Juncker notably stated during a panel discussion that "when it becomes serious, you have to lie." He was referring to situations where the act of "pre-indicating" decisions on eurozone policy could fuel speculation that could harm the markets and undermine their policies’ effectiveness.1 Everyone understands that the authorities sometimes lie in order to promote calm in the markets, but it was unexpected to hear such a high-level official actually admit to doing so. They’re not supposed to admit that they lie. It is also somewhat disconcerting given the fact that virtually every economic event we have lived through since that time can very easily be described as "serious". Bank runs in Spain and Greece are indeed "serious", as is the weak economic data now emanating from Europe, the US and China. Should we assume that the authorities have been lying more frequently than usual over the past year?
When former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan denied and down-played the US housing bubble back in 2004 and 2005, the market didn’t realize how wrong he was until the bubble burst in 2007-2008. The same applies to the current Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, when he famously told US Congress in March of 2007 that "At this juncture… the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained."2 They weren’t necessarily lying, per se, they just underestimated the seriousness of the problem. At this point in the crisis, however, we are hard pressed to believe anything uttered by a central planner or financial authority figure. How many times have we heard that the eurozone crisis has been solved? And how many times have we heard officials flat out lie while the roof is burning over their heads?
Back in March, following the successful €530 billion launch of LTRO II, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi assured Germany’s Bild Newspaper that "The worst is over… the situation is stabilizing."3 The situation certainly did stabilize… for about a month. And then the bank runs started up again and sovereign bond yields spiked. Draghi has since treaded the awkward plank of promoting calm while slipping out enough bad news to ensure the eurocrats stay on their toes. As ING economist Carsten Brzeski aptly described at an ECB press conference in early June, "Listening to the ECB’s macro-economic assessment was a bit like listening to whistles in the dark… It looks as if they are becoming increasingly worried, but do not want to show it."4 And the situation has now deteriorated to the point where Draghi can’t possibly show it. Although Draghi does now warn of "serious downside risks" in the eurozone, he maintains that they are, in his words, "mostly to do with heightened uncertainty".5 Of course they are, Mario. Europe’s issues are simply due to a vague feeling of unease felt among the EU populace. They have nothing to do with fact that the EU banking system is on the verge of collapsing in on itself.
When Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy assured the Spanish press that "There will be no rescue of the Spanish banking sector" on May 28th, the Spanish government announced a $125 billion bailout for its banks a mere two weeks later.6 This apparent deceit was not lost on the Spanish left, who were quick to dub him "Lying Rajoy". But Mr. Rajoy didn’t seem phased in the least. As the Guardian writes, "Even when the outpouring of outrage forced Rajoy to call a hasty press conference the next day, he still refused to use the word "bailout" – or any other word for that matter – and referred mysteriously to "what happened on Saturday". He went as far as to say that Spain’s emergency had been "resolved" ("thanks to my pressure", he said). He then took a plane to Poland to watch the national football team play ("the players deserve my presence")."7 Sound credible to you?
Then there are the bankers. Back in April, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon blithely dismissed media reports as a "tempest in a teapot" that referred to massively outsized derivative positions held by the bank’s traders in the Chief Investment Office in London. That "tempest" was soon revealed to have resulted in a $2 billion trading loss for the bank roughly four weeks later. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee this past week, Dimon explained that "This particular synthetic credit portfolio was intended to earn a lot of revenue if there was a crisis. I consider that a hedge."8 He went on to add that regulators "can’t stop something like this from happening. It was purely a management mistake."9 That’s just wonderful. Can we expect more ‘mistakes’ of this nature in the coming months given JP Morgan’s estimated $70 trillion in derivatives exposure? And will the US taxpayer willingly bail out JP Morgan when it does? Everyone knows the derivatives position wasn’t a hedge – but what else is Dimon going to say? That JP Morgan is making reckless derivatives bets overseas with other people’s money that’s backstopped by the US government? Credibility is leaving the system.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Very high stakes poker.
Syria shoots down warplane from Turkey
Syria says the Turkish aircraft violated its airspace over the Mediterranean. The fate of two pilots is unknown. Turkey’s leader says his nation will act ‘decisively’ after details emerge. By Patrick J. McDonnell and Rima Marrouch, Los Angeles Times
June 22, 2012, 6:05 p.m.
BEIRUT — Syria shot down a warplane from Turkey on Friday that it said had violated its airspace, an event that illustrated the potential for the Syrian conflict to spill across its borders and risked a further deterioration in relations between neighbors that once were close allies.
In a terse statement after midnight, the office of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Syria had downed a Turkish plane that disappeared about midday off the Syrian coast. The fate of the two pilots was unknown.
The official Syrian Arab News Agency, known as SANA, said the aircraft, flying low and fast, violated Syrian airspace over the Mediterranean Sea and was shot down by ground fire. It said the plane was hit about half a mile from the Syrian coast and crashed into the sea.
The incident appears to be another example of how the Syria conflict has elevated regional tensions. Syria sits in the heart of the volatile Middle East and its instability has already had ramifications in Turkey, Lebanon and elsewhere.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Whatever is required will be provided. About that there is no question whatsoever.
Jim,
A great source of live coverage of the debt crisis from The Telegraph: as an example, from yesterday June-21-2012 live coverage:
"22.14 Christine Lagarde says: "We are clearly seeing additional tension and acute stress applying to both banks and sovereigns in the euro area." She’s called for more relaxed monetary policy by the ECB, and for eurobonds to be issued."
(…)
" 21.57 Jean-Claude Juncker (current Prime Minister of Luxembourg since 20 January 1995) says that he expects the troika will head to Greece on Monday, and that he also expects an updated memorandum of understanding with Greece. He also confirmed that €1bn will be paid from the eurozone bailout fund before the end of June, to keep the country ticking over. "
Link to full article…
Best regards,
CIGA Christopher
Cash-strapped Municipalities Across America CIGA Eric
As desperate, cash-strapped municipalities across America search for answers, these outcomes will become more common.
Headline: Stockton bankruptcy likely to be costly mess
SAN FRANCISCO — A costly mess, including court battles with employees and lenders that could stretch over years, is likely to await Stockton, California, if it cannot reach a last-minute deal with creditors and becomes the largest U.S. city ever to file for bankruptcy. "A Chapter 9 bankruptcy proceeding is complicated, expensive, time-consuming and uncertain," said James Spiotto, a lawyer and municipal bankruptcy specialist at the Chapman and Cutler law firm in Chicago. "More likely than not, you’re not going to get your desired result." Stockton on Wednesday provided an initial outline of what a "bankruptcy budget" might look like for the city of 292,000 as a June 25 deadline for mediation talks with bond holders, employee unions and others approaches. The city proposes to stop payments on much of its debt and impose wage and benefit cuts including the elimination of all retiree healthcare benefits after a one-year transition period. Stockton has already slashed its workforce sharply in recent years, cutting the police force by 25 percent, the fire department by 30 percent, and all other departments by more than 40 percent. But it still must find a way to close a $26 million gap in its $162 million budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1 -and people involved in the mediation sessions consider a bankruptcy filing to be all but inevitable.
Source: msnbc.msn.com
Headline: Financially-strapped Nevada city declared disaster
NORTH LAS VEGAS, Nev. (AP) — There are no signs of rioters, wind-damaged homes or flooding. The brand new City Hall features gleaming marble floors and the public recreation centers offer Zumba, karate and Pilates classes. Despite all of its suburban trimmings, North Las Vegas is officially a disaster area. After five years of declining property taxes, massive layoffs and questionable spending, leaders of the blue-collar, family-oriented city outside Las Vegas declared a state of emergency, invoking a rarely used state law crafted for unforeseen disasters. No matter that the statute, which allows municipalities to suspend union contracts and avoid paying scheduled salary increases, doesn’t actually include fiscal emergencies among the list of potential disasters. "It says, in case of ‘emergency such as.’ You can’t list how many different types of emergencies there are in the world," City Council member Wade Wagner said of the move, which will save the city $9 million.
Source: news.yahoo.com
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