Ray Dalio: Don't Assume That Germany Will Bail Europe Out; Consider The "Fat Tail" A Significant Possibility
Lately,
more and more professional investment "advisors" and newsletter
recommendations boil down to just one catalyst: wait for either Germany,
the ECB or the Fed to step in, as usual, and bail the world out,
because, well, they have to, and any additional thought is rendered moot
as fundamental analysis is meaningless under central planning (plus it
is actually more work than just repeating the same stuff over and over
while charging $29.95/month for it). Of course, when these same
snakeoil salesmen are asked the simple question: what if said bailout
does not happen, or if it happens late (for the purposes of this
exercise let's assume one is not a central bank that can print its own
money, have an infinite balance sheet, and can afford to be wrong
almost into perpetuity), they give a blank stare, start mumbling
something and walk away, especially if one mentions Lehman brothers and
the simple detail that, oh, it failed. Which is why if Ray Dalio, head
of the world's largest hedge fund, is correct, it may time to
summarily fire and stop subscribing to each and every broken record
Oracle whose template is "X will bailout Y" for the simple reason that
it is wrong.
from KingWorldNews:
Today 40 year veteran, Don Coxe, told King World News “…the amounts
involved are at mind-boggling levels,” in terms of what is needed for
Europe’s governments and banks. Coxe, who is Global Strategy Advisor to
BMO ($538 billion in assets), also said that European banks, “…have
borrowed huge amounts of money, in dollars, under currency swap
arrangements,” and “if banks start to go down, we know from 2008, when
banks start to crumble, then the whole system falls.” Here is what Coxe
had to say about the ongoing crisis: “Well, first of all we’ve got to
stop using ‘billions’ because if there is going to be a fund that works,
it’s going to have a ‘T’ (for trillions) on it. We are dealing with
some very big numbers in the sense that Italy, although it’s not that
big of an economy, it’s got the third largest amount of bond debt
outstanding.”“So Italy’s situation is truly serious because they also have a short duration on their debt. If you were holding a three-year Italian bond, but it’s only got three months to maturity, you are probably not going to sell it now because you want to get your money out. But you are not likely to roll it over, unless you are an Italian bank.
Don Coxe continues @ KingWorldNews.com
from KingWorldNews:
Today John Embry told King World News, when referring to what is
needed to bail out Europe, “All I know is that these numbers are
staggering … We are on the edge of collapse. We’ve run out of time.”
Embry, who is Chief Investment Strategist of the $10 billion strong
Sprott Asset Management, also told KWN that if the euro does split
apart, it “will be extraordinarily chaotic.” Here is what Embry had to
say about the crisis: “We’ve go to focus on what’s coming up in the
short-run with regards to the European situation. It’s going to be an
extremely interesting summit they are hosting this Thursday and Friday.
The problems are piling up at such an enormous rate they can’t be
ignored anymore.”
“There was this amazing back and forth today, where Merkel said, ‘There would not be euro bonds as as long as she was alive.’ Then, not longer after, Monti, the Prime Minister of Italy, came out and said that if there weren’t euro bonds, he was going to resign.
John Embry continues @ KingWorldNews.com
Today John Embry told King World News, when referring to what is
needed to bail out Europe, “All I know is that these numbers are
staggering … We are on the edge of collapse. We’ve run out of time.”
Embry, who is Chief Investment Strategist of the $10 billion strong
Sprott Asset Management, also told KWN that if the euro does split
apart, it “will be extraordinarily chaotic.” Here is what Embry had to
say about the crisis: “We’ve go to focus on what’s coming up in the
short-run with regards to the European situation. It’s going to be an
extremely interesting summit they are hosting this Thursday and Friday.
The problems are piling up at such an enormous rate they can’t be
ignored anymore.”“There was this amazing back and forth today, where Merkel said, ‘There would not be euro bonds as as long as she was alive.’ Then, not longer after, Monti, the Prime Minister of Italy, came out and said that if there weren’t euro bonds, he was going to resign.
John Embry continues @ KingWorldNews.com
Rosenberg Opens Pandora's 'Global Economic Shock' Box
In a detailed discussion with Bloomberg TV's Tom Keene, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg addresses everything from Europe's "inability to grow its way out of the problem" amid its 'existential moment',
Asian 'trade shock' and commodity contagion, and US housing, saving,
and fiscal uncertainty. He believes we are far from a bottom in
housing, despite all the rapacious calls for it from everyone, as the
over-supply overhang remains far too high. "The last six quarters of US
GDP growth are running below two percent" he notes that given the past
sixty years of experience this is stall speed, and inevitably you slip into recession".
He is back to his new normal of 'frugality' and bearishness on the
possibilities of any solution for Europe but, most disconcertingly he
advises Keene that "when you model fiscal uncertainty into any sort of
economic scenario in the U.S., what it means is that businesses raise their liquidity ratios and households build up their savings rates. This comes out of spending growth. And that's the problem - you've got the fiscal uncertainty coupled with a US export 'trade shock'."
from Azizonomics:
Many Keynesians really hate the concept of liquidationism. I’m trying to grasp why.Paul Krugman wrote:
One discouraging feature of the current economic crisis is the way many economists and economic commentators — apparently ignorant of what went on over the last 75 years or so of macroeconomic debate — have been reinventing old fallacies, imagining that they were coming up with profound insights.
The Bank for International Settlements has decided to throw everything we’ve learned from 80 years of hard thought about macroeconomics out the window, and to embrace full-frontal liquidationism. The BIS is now advocating a position indistinguishable from that of Schumpeter in the 1930s, opposing any monetary expansion because that would leave “the work of depressions undone”.
Andrew Mellon summed up liquidationism as so:
The government must keep its hands off and let the slump liquidate itself. Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmes, liquidate real estate. When the people get an inflation brainstorm, the only way to get it out of their blood is to let it collapse. A panic is not altogether a bad thing. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.
Read More @ Azizonomics.com
Egan Jones lowers ratings on Germany from AA minus to A plus/ Italian bonds reach 6.18%/ Spanish 10 yr bond yield 6.8%/
Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 7 hours ago
Good
evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed down today to the tune of $15.10 to $1672.60. Silver which
is the object of interest for our bankers also followed suit down 48
cents to $27.04. Today a lot of background noise from the EU but pay no
attention as Germany is still saying no to Eurobonds and guaranteeing
customer deposits. Egan Jones lowered the boom on Germany today by
cutting
"Bankruptcy Only Choice Left" As Stockton Set To Become Largest US City Chapter 9
As mediation with the city's creditors fails, the California city of Stockton looks set to become the US' largest ever city bankruptcy. The city with the second largest foreclosure-rate in the nation has seen its property taxes and other revenues decline while retiree benefits drained city coffers, according to the SF Chronicle. The city manager, Bob Deis, spoke to a special council meeting tonight, noting (via Bloomberg):- *STOCKTON CREDITOR TALKS FAILED TO END CRISIS, OFFICIAL SAYS
- *STOCKTON CITY MANAGER SAYS TALKS ON DEBT WON'T AVOID INSOLVENCY
- *STOCKTON CITY MANAGER SAYS BANKRUPTCY `THE ONLY CHOICE LEFT'
Chile Is Latest Country To Launch Renminbi Swaps And Settlement
The dollar exclusion list is becoming bigger and bigger with every passing day as China gets ready.Who Destroyed The Middle Class - Part 3
Forty five years after the War on Poverty began, there are 49 million Americans living in poverty. That’s a solid good return on the $16 trillion spent so far. It’s on par with the 16 year zero percent real return in the stock market. We have produced a vast underclass of ignorant, uneducated, illiterate, dependent people who have become a huge voting block for the Democratic Party. Politicians, on the left, promise more entitlements to these people in order to get elected. Politicians on the right will not cut the entitlements for fear of being branded as uncaring. The Republicans agree to keep the welfare state growing and the Democrats agree to keep the warfare state growing -bipartisanship in all its glory. And the middle class has been caught in a pincer movement between the free shit entitlement army and the free shit corporate army. The oligarchs have been incredibly effective at using their control of the media, academia and ideological think tanks to keep the middle class ire focused upon the lower classes. While the middle class is fixated on people making $13,400 per year, the ultra-wealthy are bribing politicians to pass laws and create tax loopholes, netting them billions of ill-gotten loot. These specialists at Edward Bernays propaganda techniques were actually able to gain overwhelming support from the middle class for the repeal of estate taxes by rebranding them “death taxes”, even though the estate tax only impacts 15,000 households out of 117 million households in the U.S. The .01% won again.
The Golden Truth About Operation Twist
Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 10 hours ago
*People are always very quick at giving others advice...Mr. Obama should
first of all take care of reducing the American deficit, which is higher
than in the eurozone* - Wolfgang Schauble, German Finance Minister LINK
Last week I suggested that the Operation Twist extension by the Fed of $268
billion would be enough to fund the U.S. Government financing needs until
the election in November, when the Fed can then crank up the printing press
without being accused of supporting Obama's re-election efforts. At that
point in time, the Fed will likely roll out an enormous stimulus/prin... more »
Best Can't-Lose Investment Idea You Ever Heard (BC-LIIYEH).
Richard Daughty, a.k.a., 'The Mogambo Guru' at Mogambo Guru Report! - 10 hours ago
I remember that I involuntarily screamed and spasmodically clutched my
chest in some kind of sudden cardiac event when I learned to my horror that
the evil Federal Reserve has announced a continuation of their insane
money-creation schemes for another year at least.
This is supposed to keep interest rates low by flooding the bond market
with oceans of new money to drive bond prices up (and hence yields down).
But the low interest rates will also, theoretically, encourage the stock
market to go up, which is actually the whole point of it all.
This, unfortunately, was made necessary b... more »
"Mr. Euro" named Greek finance minister
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 12 hours ago
Could there have been any other choice than Mr Euro? Headline: "Mr. Euro"
named Greek finance minister ATHENS (Reuters) - Yannis Stournaras, an
affable and well-respected liberal economist, was appointed Greece's new
finance minister on Tuesday after the sudden resignation of the first
choice for the job at a crucial moment for the debt-laden country. The new
conservative-led government...
[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other
content, and more! ]]Equities Rise On Low Volume Tide As Broad Risk Assets Tread Water
Slow Day. S&P
500 e-mini futures, stumbled early on by some 'reality' from Merkel,
recovered to the magical 1315 level that has seemed so important in the
last few weeks. Broadly speaking risk-drivers were either weaker or
went sideways in narrow ranges as Energy, Financials, and Discretionary
high beta pulled stocks higher. From yesterday's equity day-session
close, oil is unch, copper down modestly, Gold down more and Silver down the most as the USD limped very quietly lower on the day (interestingly divergent as AUD and GBP strength was enough to balance the EUR weakness).
Treasuries went sideways to modestly higher in yields by 2-3bps.
Stocks outperformed (once again) from around the European close -
pulling notably away higher from CONTEXT-based broad risk perspective
but, just as with the last few days, financial weakness into the close led the broad indices into a decent nose-dive back towards VWAP right into and beyond the bell
(on heavy volume and larger average trade size). It's getting old. VIX
fell less than 0.5 vols and surged up to nearly 20% at the close (as
stocks dumped giving up almost half its day-session gains) as total day volume was weak, average trade size low, and intraday range the lowest in 2 months.
HY and HYG underperformed stocks (we suspect as the LT convergence
reduces the push into HYG) and we are seeing IG-HY decompression pick up
a little.Turkey Mobilizing: Media Manipulation, Provocation Or Reality?
In
the aftermath of the recent escalation in tensions between Turkey and
Syria, whereby Syria was accused of hostile behavior for firing and
taking down a Turkish fighter jet that supposedly spent at least 5
minutes in its airspace, today was a quiet day. At least until recently
we saw the following footage in a clip uploaded to YouTube. Supposedly,
Turkey has sent troop reinforcement to the Syrian border, after
Erdogan's warning that soldiers approaching the border will be treated
as targets, the clip explains, citing Turkish daily Zaman reported
citing the Cihan news agency. This is unverified, nor is the statement
that 15 military vehicles, including tanks and cannons, were dispatched
to the border from Diyarbakir. We are skeptical of the validity of the
above especially since earlier today Russia said that Tuesday's Syrian
shooting down of a Turkish warplane should not be seen as a
provocation and warned world powers against using the incident to push
for stronger action against Damascus. It was Moscow's first
official reaction which made it quite clear that Russia will not just
stand idly by awaiting for NATO to unilaterally take a decision to
punish the middle eastern nation for daring to defend itself. But then
again, this may be merely misreading Russia's resolve, in collaboration
with China, to defend its own national strategic interests.Momentarily Stepping Back From The Trees To Show These Two Charts Of The Forest
Every
time we get too bogged down by details, minutae, nuances, footnotes,
rumors, lies, or, at the very bottom of the bullshit pyramid, Eurocrat
promises, and think that maybe, just maybe, there is a way to
fix the mess we are in, we take a quick look at what is in store (most
recently recapped by Deutsche Bank in the form of the following two
charts) and quickly realize that all concerns about a happy ending have
been for nothing.
from SHTFPlan:
Leading cyber security firm McAfee has issued a startling breaking
news report that indicates the U.S., European and Latin American
financial systems are under a massive financial attacks that have
digitally siphoned some $2.5 billion from thousands of account from
various financial institutions.
According to McAfee, the attacks are ongoing and international law enforcement agencies are currently working to shut them down:
Leading cyber security firm McAfee has issued a startling breaking
news report that indicates the U.S., European and Latin American
financial systems are under a massive financial attacks that have
digitally siphoned some $2.5 billion from thousands of account from
various financial institutions.According to McAfee, the attacks are ongoing and international law enforcement agencies are currently working to shut them down:
McAfee and Guardian Analytics have uncovered a highly sophisticated, global financial services fraud campaign that has reached the American banking system. As this research study goes to press, we are working actively with international law enforcement organizations to shut down these attacks.Read More @ SHTFPlan.com
Unlike standard SpyEye and Zeus attacks that typically feature live (manual) interventions, we have discovered at least a dozen groups now using server-side components and heavy automation. The fraudsters’ objective in these attacks is to siphon large amounts from high balance accounts, hence the name chosen for this research: Operation High Roller.
With no human participation required, each attack moves quickly and scales neatly. This operation combines an insider level of understanding of banking transaction systems with both custom and off the shelf malicious code and appears to be worthy of the term “organized crime.”
from Fabian4Liberty:
Still Think Your Vote Counts...Listen closely to what she says...
BTFD...
by Dorothy Kosich, MineWeb.com
Contrary
to investor perceptions, fabrication demand for platinum, palladium,
and rhodium is expected to grow at a stronger pace in 2012
Fabrication demand for platinum totaled 7,361,590 ounces in 2011, a 2.2% increase.
Platinum fabrication demand is projected to rise 3.5% this year to around 7,617,992 ounces, the strongest growth since 2006, says the yearbook. “This is because a large component of fabrication is highly price sensitive.”
Jewelry demand, which comprises 25% of total platinum demand, is expected to benefit from lower platinum prices this year, increasing 2.4%.
Auto demand is also expected to rise at a strong pace, mostly due to a strong recovery in demand from Japan. Monthly double-digit sales are expected to boost platinum auto demand by 20% in 2012, according to PGM.
Read More @ MineWeb.com
Contrary
to investor perceptions, fabrication demand for platinum, palladium,
and rhodium is expected to grow at a stronger pace in 2012Fabrication demand for platinum totaled 7,361,590 ounces in 2011, a 2.2% increase.
Platinum fabrication demand is projected to rise 3.5% this year to around 7,617,992 ounces, the strongest growth since 2006, says the yearbook. “This is because a large component of fabrication is highly price sensitive.”
Jewelry demand, which comprises 25% of total platinum demand, is expected to benefit from lower platinum prices this year, increasing 2.4%.
Auto demand is also expected to rise at a strong pace, mostly due to a strong recovery in demand from Japan. Monthly double-digit sales are expected to boost platinum auto demand by 20% in 2012, according to PGM.
Read More @ MineWeb.com
by The Daily Bell:
Italy
to put €2bn into world’s oldest bank Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena …
The Italian government said Tuesday it will provide struggling Banca
Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world’s oldest bank, with up to €2bn to
cover a capital shortfall. – UK Telegraph
Dominant Social Theme: We’ve rescued all the rest, so why wouldn’t we rescue the oldest one?
Free-Market Analysis: Every day we slap our (admittedly low-slung) brows and let out whistles of amazement. The latest reason: It seems the world’s oldest private bank is in need of a government loan.
Once upon a time all banks were private, even the ones that belonged to the ruler. Banks were basically warehouses that collected gold and silver and issued receipts. These receipts later on turned into the monopoly fiat (unbacked) paper we use in such quantities today.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com
BTFD...
Italy
to put €2bn into world’s oldest bank Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena …
The Italian government said Tuesday it will provide struggling Banca
Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world’s oldest bank, with up to €2bn to
cover a capital shortfall. – UK TelegraphDominant Social Theme: We’ve rescued all the rest, so why wouldn’t we rescue the oldest one?
Free-Market Analysis: Every day we slap our (admittedly low-slung) brows and let out whistles of amazement. The latest reason: It seems the world’s oldest private bank is in need of a government loan.
Once upon a time all banks were private, even the ones that belonged to the ruler. Banks were basically warehouses that collected gold and silver and issued receipts. These receipts later on turned into the monopoly fiat (unbacked) paper we use in such quantities today.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com
BTFD...
by Tim Staermose, Sovereign Man :
Over a year ago, I penned an article entitled “4 Silver Investments
to Avoid.” About two weeks later, on April 26th, I wrote another
article: “Should I Sell My Silver?” saying that I expected an imminent
correction in the silver price, after it had gone “parabolic.”
It caused quite a stir at the time. There was no shortage of people calling me delusional for suggesting the bull market in silver was overdue for a pause. Some even labeled me a “traitor,” presumably to the “hard money” movement.
One of the silver companies I recommended to NOT buy immediately contacted me after the article was published, insisting there was nothing to worry about, and that their stock was a great investment.
Read More @ SovereignMan.com
BTFD...
Over a year ago, I penned an article entitled “4 Silver Investments
to Avoid.” About two weeks later, on April 26th, I wrote another
article: “Should I Sell My Silver?” saying that I expected an imminent
correction in the silver price, after it had gone “parabolic.”It caused quite a stir at the time. There was no shortage of people calling me delusional for suggesting the bull market in silver was overdue for a pause. Some even labeled me a “traitor,” presumably to the “hard money” movement.
One of the silver companies I recommended to NOT buy immediately contacted me after the article was published, insisting there was nothing to worry about, and that their stock was a great investment.
Read More @ SovereignMan.com
BTFD...
by Ben Traynor, Bullion Street:
London Gold market report
Wholesale market gold prices traded as low as $1560 an ounce Friday morning, before recovering some ground by lunchtime in London, while European stock markets were also down and commodities were broadly flat.
Silver prices meantime sank to a 2012 low at $26.64 an ounce – a 7.2% drop on last week’s close. “We believe a break of $26.00 has the ability to trigger liquidation of silver with it looking for $18.00,” says the latest technical analysis note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.
Heading into the weekend, gold prices by Friday lunchtime looked set for their biggest weekly fall since the first week of March, having fallen 3.7% since the start of Monday’s trading.
On the currency markets, the Euro ticked lower against the Dollar, hitting its lowest level this week. “A decline in the Euro may have contributed to a drop in gold prices,” says HSBC precious metals analyst James Steel.
Read More @ BullionStreet.com
London Gold market reportWholesale market gold prices traded as low as $1560 an ounce Friday morning, before recovering some ground by lunchtime in London, while European stock markets were also down and commodities were broadly flat.
Silver prices meantime sank to a 2012 low at $26.64 an ounce – a 7.2% drop on last week’s close. “We believe a break of $26.00 has the ability to trigger liquidation of silver with it looking for $18.00,” says the latest technical analysis note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.
Heading into the weekend, gold prices by Friday lunchtime looked set for their biggest weekly fall since the first week of March, having fallen 3.7% since the start of Monday’s trading.
On the currency markets, the Euro ticked lower against the Dollar, hitting its lowest level this week. “A decline in the Euro may have contributed to a drop in gold prices,” says HSBC precious metals analyst James Steel.
Read More @ BullionStreet.com
from Jesse’s Café Américain:
As a reminder, today was the silver option expiration on the Comex.
The EU Summit meeting is on Thursday and Friday of this week, 28-29 June.
Next Wednesday is the US 4th of July holiday. I would expect many punters would like to be leaving early this week if they can.
This is also the last week of the second quarter.
The US Supreme Court is expected to rule on Obamacare on Thursday, overturning at least a portion of it. This may provide a sellable rally.
Quite often the markets search for some level, and then try and let the junior traders hold it in light volumes, unless something happens.
With algos running we sometimes get some interesting intraday action but little in the way of progress.
This is a week that also brings some important metals events.
June 26 Comex July silver options expiry
June 26 Comex July copper options expiry
June 26 Comex July silver futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June gold futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June copper futures last trading day
June 27 Comex July miNY silver futures last trading day
June 29 Comex July silver futures first notice day
June 29 Comex July copper futures first notice day
Read More @ Jesse’s Café Américain:
As a reminder, today was the silver option expiration on the Comex.The EU Summit meeting is on Thursday and Friday of this week, 28-29 June.
Next Wednesday is the US 4th of July holiday. I would expect many punters would like to be leaving early this week if they can.
This is also the last week of the second quarter.
The US Supreme Court is expected to rule on Obamacare on Thursday, overturning at least a portion of it. This may provide a sellable rally.
Quite often the markets search for some level, and then try and let the junior traders hold it in light volumes, unless something happens.
With algos running we sometimes get some interesting intraday action but little in the way of progress.
This is a week that also brings some important metals events.
June 26 Comex July silver options expiry
June 26 Comex July copper options expiry
June 26 Comex July silver futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June gold futures last trading day
June 27 Comex June copper futures last trading day
June 27 Comex July miNY silver futures last trading day
June 29 Comex July silver futures first notice day
June 29 Comex July copper futures first notice day
Read More @ Jesse’s Café Américain:
from CapitalAccount:
Welcome to Capital Account. Herman Van Rompuy has a plan for more European Integration. This is the man that Nigel Farage “called out” in European Parliament not long ago, as being a no body — someone that “no one had ever heard of.” That’s not the case anymore. Now everyone knows who Van Rompuy is, whether they like it or not. He is making headlines recently with a reportedly scaled back version of a plan for the future of the Eurozone to be debated upon at the EU summit this week. A frequent guest of the show, Nigel Farage, has expressed his displeasure with Van Rompuy in the past, but it now appears that he may not be the only prominent entity gearing up to do so. Germany appears apprehensive with te plan, as it has been recently downgraded by Egan Jones. We’ll discuss with our guest Chris Martenson.
Welcome to Capital Account. Herman Van Rompuy has a plan for more European Integration. This is the man that Nigel Farage “called out” in European Parliament not long ago, as being a no body — someone that “no one had ever heard of.” That’s not the case anymore. Now everyone knows who Van Rompuy is, whether they like it or not. He is making headlines recently with a reportedly scaled back version of a plan for the future of the Eurozone to be debated upon at the EU summit this week. A frequent guest of the show, Nigel Farage, has expressed his displeasure with Van Rompuy in the past, but it now appears that he may not be the only prominent entity gearing up to do so. Germany appears apprehensive with te plan, as it has been recently downgraded by Egan Jones. We’ll discuss with our guest Chris Martenson.
Four presidents propose power of eurozone authorities over national governments
by Ian Traynor, The Guardian:
European leaders have drafted a radical plan to turn the 17 countries
of the eurozone into a full-fledged political federation within a decade
in an attempt to placate the financial markets by demonstrating a
political will to save the single currency in the medium-term.
The incendiary proposals for a banking, fiscal, and economic unions resulting in a “political union” are to be debated at an EU summit on Thursday and Friday. Following two bad-tempered meetings of European leaders in Mexico and Rome over the past week, the Brussels summit looks likely to see major clashes over the future of Europe as well as the immediate crisis surrounding sovereign debt, bad banks, and the euro’s survival.
The crisis has shifted from the periphery of the EU to its very heart, with Berlin and Paris seriously at odds for the first time since the Greek drama started 30 months ago. The logic of the draft proposals will also pose major dilemmas for David Cameron, perhaps putting Britain at a crossroads in its relationship with the continent.
Read More @ Guardian.co.uk
by Ian Traynor, The Guardian:
European leaders have drafted a radical plan to turn the 17 countries
of the eurozone into a full-fledged political federation within a decade
in an attempt to placate the financial markets by demonstrating a
political will to save the single currency in the medium-term.The incendiary proposals for a banking, fiscal, and economic unions resulting in a “political union” are to be debated at an EU summit on Thursday and Friday. Following two bad-tempered meetings of European leaders in Mexico and Rome over the past week, the Brussels summit looks likely to see major clashes over the future of Europe as well as the immediate crisis surrounding sovereign debt, bad banks, and the euro’s survival.
The crisis has shifted from the periphery of the EU to its very heart, with Berlin and Paris seriously at odds for the first time since the Greek drama started 30 months ago. The logic of the draft proposals will also pose major dilemmas for David Cameron, perhaps putting Britain at a crossroads in its relationship with the continent.
Read More @ Guardian.co.uk
by Jan Harvey, Reuters:
Demand for gold coins fell in key markets in the early part of this
year as the strong demand for small investment products that helped send
bullion prices to record highs in 2011 tailed off, sales data from
three major Mints showed.
The United States, Canadian and Austrian Mints, which between them produce three of the world’s top five bullion investment coins, all reported lower sales in the first quarter of 2012 versus a year ago.
Combined sales of U.S. American Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf and Vienna Philharmonic gold coins fell by more than a third to 451,113 ounces in the three months to March.
Read More @ Reuters.com
The news came as finance chiefs from Germany, France, Italy and Spain
hold last-minute talks in Paris to try to narrow differences on the
currency area’s future.
The draft plan, set to be discussed at the EU summit on Thursday and Friday, would create a closer fiscal and banking union that would turn Brussels into a finance ministry for all 17 eurozone members.
The report was prepared by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker.
Fears over the financial health of the single currency grew on Monday after Cyprus became the fifth country to formally request EU aid, Spain asked for external loans to deal with its banking crisis and the new Greek finance minister was forced to step down due to ill health.
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk
Demand for gold coins fell in key markets in the early part of this
year as the strong demand for small investment products that helped send
bullion prices to record highs in 2011 tailed off, sales data from
three major Mints showed.The United States, Canadian and Austrian Mints, which between them produce three of the world’s top five bullion investment coins, all reported lower sales in the first quarter of 2012 versus a year ago.
Combined sales of U.S. American Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf and Vienna Philharmonic gold coins fell by more than a third to 451,113 ounces in the three months to March.
Read More @ Reuters.com
by Telegraph staff, The Telegraph:
The news came as finance chiefs from Germany, France, Italy and Spain
hold last-minute talks in Paris to try to narrow differences on the
currency area’s future.The draft plan, set to be discussed at the EU summit on Thursday and Friday, would create a closer fiscal and banking union that would turn Brussels into a finance ministry for all 17 eurozone members.
The report was prepared by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker.
Fears over the financial health of the single currency grew on Monday after Cyprus became the fifth country to formally request EU aid, Spain asked for external loans to deal with its banking crisis and the new Greek finance minister was forced to step down due to ill health.
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk
by Bill Holter, MilesFranklin.com:
I know that this is obvious but to the masses maybe it isn’t.
Everyone is hoping and praying for more QE to juice the system, rocket
the markets and basically prolong the collapse of the Ponzi scheme. By
far, the majority, including the PHD’s on Wall Street don’t really think
about “where” the QE actually comes from. Yes, some know that it is
conjured up out of thin air, some know that it will dilute the existing
money supplies and some understand that “debt” is involved. But think
about it for what it is, the West as a whole and individually is running
huge deficits yet the economies are rolling over again into recession.
(As a side note, why is anyone surprised that the business cycle that
never really expanded is now turning down again after 4 years, isn’t
THAT typical that we run in 4 year cycles?). Can you imagine what
global “GDP” would look like with balanced budgets? We would see
economies contracting an additional 5-10%!
My point is that no stimulus, no additional QE, nothing can be done without further wrecking the balance sheets of central banks and sovereign treasuries. We are living a vicious circle that is circling the drain. Debt saturation was reached in the private sector by 2006-07 and then the central banks (much to my surprise) “doubled down” until THEY reached debt saturation.
Read more @ MilesFranklin.com
“Obama is waging war on Arizona over illegal immigration.”
That terse assessment is from Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who has tangled with the White House over his investigation of Obama’s birth records, as well as the Department of Justice’s allegations that the sheriff’s department profiles suspects.
Both of those major issues remain unresolved, with Arpaio’s Cold Case Posse review of Obama’s eligibility for the White House continuing. The investigators earlier confirmed there is probable cause to believe Obama’s birth records were forged and presenting them as an official government document is a fraud.
Arpaio also has challenged Attorney General Eric Holder to prove in court his claims that the sheriff’s office profiles suspects.
His comment today was in response to DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano’s decision to suspend for Arizona what is known as “the 287(g) program,” named for a provision of federal law used by DHS to deputize local, county, and state law enforcement officers to assist in the enforcement of federal immigration laws.
Read More @ WND.com
Dear CIGAs,
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
U.S. Banks Aren’t Nearly Ready for Coming European Crisis By Simon Johnson Jun 24, 2012 4:30 PM MT
The euro area faces a major economic crisis, most likely a series of rolling, country-specific problems involving some combination of failing banks and sovereigns that can’t pay their debts in full.
This will culminate in systemwide stress, emergency liquidity loans from the European Central Bank and politicians from all the countries involved increasingly at one another’s throats.
Even the optimists now say openly that Europe will only solve its problems when the alternatives look sufficiently bleak and time has run out. Less optimistic people increasingly think that the euro area will break up because all the proposed solutions are pie-in-the-sky. If the latter view is right — or even if concern about dissolution grows in coming months — markets, investors, regulators and governments need to worry not just about interest-rate risk and credit risk, but also dissolution risk.
What’s more, they also need to worry a great deal about what the repricing of risk will do to the world’s thinly capitalized and highly leveraged megabanks. Officials, unfortunately, appear not to have thought about this at all; the Group of 20 meeting and communique last week exuded complacency and neglect.
Very few people seem to have gotten their heads around dissolution risk. Here’s what it means: If you have a contract that requires you to be paid in euros and the euro no longer exists, what you will receive is unclear.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Moody’s cuts debt ratings of 28 Spanish banks By MARCY GORDON, AP Business Writer
Spain’s battered banks have taken another hit, this time in the form of a sweeping downgrade by Moody’s.
The rating agency said that it is cutting its views on the debt issued by 28 Spanish banks, including international heavyweights Banco Santander and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria.
The Spanish government’s fragile finances are making it more difficult for that country to support its lenders, according to Moody’s. And it says the banks are vulnerable to further losses from Spain’s real-estate bust.
The announcement late Monday from Moody’s Investors Service came on the same day that Spain’s government formally asked for help from its European neighbors in cleaning up its stricken banking sector. The request left many questions unanswered, including how much Spain would ask for out of the $125 billion loan package it has been offered.
That uncertainty over Spain led to losses Monday in global stock markets. Bond investors, meanwhile, pushed Spain’s borrowing costs higher, a sign of wilting confidence in the country’s ability to support its banks.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Survey: More Than 25% of Americans Have No Emergency Savings Monday, 25 Jun 2012 10:02 AM
By Nancy Stanley
While nearly half of Americans don’t have enough money saved to cover emergencies, one-quarter don’t have any money saved, according to Bankrate.com’s Financial Security Index survey.
The general rule of thumb is to have enough cash saved to cover at least six months of expenses.
However, only 25 percent of Americans have saved that amount and 17 percent have three to five months’ expenses saved, while 28 percent have no emergency savings and 21 percent have less than three months’ expenses saved.
Those earning more than $75,000 annually have higher odds of saving six months of expenses. Only 9 percent of these high earners don’t have emergency savings versus 52 percent of those earning less than $30,000.
Among retirees, 41 percent have enough money saved to cover at least six months’ expenses, while 26 percent have less than six months’ expenses saved and 18 percent have no savings.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Jim,
Germany is out. The next in line are the IMF and the Fed…
Best regards,
CIGA Christopher
Merkel buries euro bonds as summit tension rises By Thorsten Severin and Catherine Bremer
BERLIN/PARIS | Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:26pm EDT
(Reuters) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel sought to bury once and for all the idea of common euro zone bonds on Tuesday, saying Europe would not share total debt liability "as long as I live", as the bloc’s big four finance ministers met to narrow differences on how to solve a worsening debt crisis.
Two days before a crucial European Union summit, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy released a seven-page report on closer fiscal and banking union envisaging a euro zone treasury that would issue common debt in the medium term.
Merkel immediately stamped on the idea of mutualising debt – favored by France, Italy and Spain – at a meeting of lawmakers from her Free Democratic coalition partners in Berlin, according to people who attended the closed-door session.
"I don’t see total debt liability as long as I live," she was quoted as saying, a day after branding the idea of euro bonds "economically wrong and counterproductive".
However Germany, the EU’s biggest economy and paymaster, appeared ready to budge on using the euro zone’s rescue funds more flexibly to help banks and reassure investors spooked by an increased risk of facing write-downs on government bonds.
More…
I know that this is obvious but to the masses maybe it isn’t.
Everyone is hoping and praying for more QE to juice the system, rocket
the markets and basically prolong the collapse of the Ponzi scheme. By
far, the majority, including the PHD’s on Wall Street don’t really think
about “where” the QE actually comes from. Yes, some know that it is
conjured up out of thin air, some know that it will dilute the existing
money supplies and some understand that “debt” is involved. But think
about it for what it is, the West as a whole and individually is running
huge deficits yet the economies are rolling over again into recession.
(As a side note, why is anyone surprised that the business cycle that
never really expanded is now turning down again after 4 years, isn’t
THAT typical that we run in 4 year cycles?). Can you imagine what
global “GDP” would look like with balanced budgets? We would see
economies contracting an additional 5-10%!My point is that no stimulus, no additional QE, nothing can be done without further wrecking the balance sheets of central banks and sovereign treasuries. We are living a vicious circle that is circling the drain. Debt saturation was reached in the private sector by 2006-07 and then the central banks (much to my surprise) “doubled down” until THEY reached debt saturation.
Read more @ MilesFranklin.com
by Jerome Corsi, WND
“Obama is waging war on Arizona over illegal immigration.”That terse assessment is from Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who has tangled with the White House over his investigation of Obama’s birth records, as well as the Department of Justice’s allegations that the sheriff’s department profiles suspects.
Both of those major issues remain unresolved, with Arpaio’s Cold Case Posse review of Obama’s eligibility for the White House continuing. The investigators earlier confirmed there is probable cause to believe Obama’s birth records were forged and presenting them as an official government document is a fraud.
Arpaio also has challenged Attorney General Eric Holder to prove in court his claims that the sheriff’s office profiles suspects.
His comment today was in response to DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano’s decision to suspend for Arizona what is known as “the 287(g) program,” named for a provision of federal law used by DHS to deputize local, county, and state law enforcement officers to assist in the enforcement of federal immigration laws.
Read More @ WND.com
Dear CIGAs,
The short seller, legal and illegal, who manipulate the shares of
companies they select, even for high trading volume trading reasons, do
so taking cold comfort that civil litigation cannot force regulators to
regulate. Most of the targets of these debilitating attacks sit quietly
because either they do not know the law, do not have funds to retain the
best counsel or fear retaliation if they resist the short in a
meaningful way. That retaliation takes the form of what is known in the
industry of destruction as dirty tricks. Dirty tricks can be anything
from arranging negative write ups about the company under attack to
complaining about the company to any regulator or ministry that will
listen be that in the country of incorporation or the country of
activity.
What gives the shorts their best advantage is the lack of the up-tick
rule on selling short. They can enter the market anywhere on the planet
during the trading session, before the trading session or buy at the
market sell on the close orders, in my experience as high as 4,000,000,
to sell down to a mere 700,000 to sell after the official close. All of
that can be short stock without the enforcement of the up-tick rule by
regulators. A hedge fund or primary broker on behalf of the hedge fund
can declare themselves a market maker, thereby allowing the short to go
naked for 21 days. The way the markets works today favors the interest
of the short selling manipulative interest by design. I am not referring
to a legitimate short that has an opinion, executes his trade, borrows
the shares and declares the short. My focus is on the entity that
manipulates with pounding bids with naked or covered stock and then
resorts to attempts to destroy the company via dirty tricks. As a side
note the naked short actually creates counterfeit unregistered shares in
the market, increasing the company capitalization in their efforts to
destroy.
It is my feeling that there is case law under British Law whereby one
company cannot resort to dirty tricks and manipulation where one of
them intends to hurt a competitive business for financial gain. A clear
example is Virgin Airlines versus British Airlines.
My approach would be to use the business conduct of the short seller,
most certainly any errors made in the execution of the order by the
seller, the specialist or the exchange whereby intent to destroy for
profit is provable. I am sure there is US case law that would support
the improper use of business tactics in order to make financial gain as
an action that would succeed in court.
I feel the defense available to the victim of this type of unethical
business activity lies in civil action, which in this case may well both
be the US Federal court and under British law in Canada. The other
option is to succeed and punish the shorts as was done in two popular US
situations. My tactic is to do both.
Please share this with your associates and their excellent
investigators. You are the strongest legal minds and barristers I have
ever met. You can be sure that I could be in my death bed and will not
yield. This is a war someone capable, able and determined must fight to
the end. I believe that it is my duty to take this on all out, nothing
held back. I believe that someone is me via your firm and an equally
powerful Canadian barrister. I firmly believe in action on all possible
fronts. We are defending an industry, the mining juniors, that really
cannot defend themselves. We must repeat this tactic any time such an
attack takes place. I am now defending against perpetrator number 3.
Your friend,
Jim
Jim
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Thanks to Dave, the message is simple. Do not count out the euro, which in my opinion will not happen.
What prevents this is the OTC derivative disaster and contract
settlement collapse such an event would produce. Not even MSM welcoming
it with a yawn can prevent the explosion.
U.S. Banks Aren’t Nearly Ready for Coming European Crisis By Simon Johnson Jun 24, 2012 4:30 PM MT
The euro area faces a major economic crisis, most likely a series of rolling, country-specific problems involving some combination of failing banks and sovereigns that can’t pay their debts in full.
This will culminate in systemwide stress, emergency liquidity loans from the European Central Bank and politicians from all the countries involved increasingly at one another’s throats.
Even the optimists now say openly that Europe will only solve its problems when the alternatives look sufficiently bleak and time has run out. Less optimistic people increasingly think that the euro area will break up because all the proposed solutions are pie-in-the-sky. If the latter view is right — or even if concern about dissolution grows in coming months — markets, investors, regulators and governments need to worry not just about interest-rate risk and credit risk, but also dissolution risk.
What’s more, they also need to worry a great deal about what the repricing of risk will do to the world’s thinly capitalized and highly leveraged megabanks. Officials, unfortunately, appear not to have thought about this at all; the Group of 20 meeting and communique last week exuded complacency and neglect.
Very few people seem to have gotten their heads around dissolution risk. Here’s what it means: If you have a contract that requires you to be paid in euros and the euro no longer exists, what you will receive is unclear.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Why not just downgrade the entire Western world to junk and have it
over with? That way you could beat the market crisis to doing the same
thing.
Moody’s cuts debt ratings of 28 Spanish banks By MARCY GORDON, AP Business Writer
Spain’s battered banks have taken another hit, this time in the form of a sweeping downgrade by Moody’s.
The rating agency said that it is cutting its views on the debt issued by 28 Spanish banks, including international heavyweights Banco Santander and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria.
The Spanish government’s fragile finances are making it more difficult for that country to support its lenders, according to Moody’s. And it says the banks are vulnerable to further losses from Spain’s real-estate bust.
The announcement late Monday from Moody’s Investors Service came on the same day that Spain’s government formally asked for help from its European neighbors in cleaning up its stricken banking sector. The request left many questions unanswered, including how much Spain would ask for out of the $125 billion loan package it has been offered.
That uncertainty over Spain led to losses Monday in global stock markets. Bond investors, meanwhile, pushed Spain’s borrowing costs higher, a sign of wilting confidence in the country’s ability to support its banks.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Can you imagine what is going to happen here assuming Bernanke overplays his game of chicken?
Survey: More Than 25% of Americans Have No Emergency Savings Monday, 25 Jun 2012 10:02 AM
By Nancy Stanley
While nearly half of Americans don’t have enough money saved to cover emergencies, one-quarter don’t have any money saved, according to Bankrate.com’s Financial Security Index survey.
The general rule of thumb is to have enough cash saved to cover at least six months of expenses.
However, only 25 percent of Americans have saved that amount and 17 percent have three to five months’ expenses saved, while 28 percent have no emergency savings and 21 percent have less than three months’ expenses saved.
Those earning more than $75,000 annually have higher odds of saving six months of expenses. Only 9 percent of these high earners don’t have emergency savings versus 52 percent of those earning less than $30,000.
Among retirees, 41 percent have enough money saved to cover at least six months’ expenses, while 26 percent have less than six months’ expenses saved and 18 percent have no savings.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This is coming to a head very fast. Think of the multi millions of
business contracts written in euros which tonight might be written in
WHAT?
Jim,
Germany is out. The next in line are the IMF and the Fed…
Best regards,
CIGA Christopher
Merkel buries euro bonds as summit tension rises By Thorsten Severin and Catherine Bremer
BERLIN/PARIS | Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:26pm EDT
(Reuters) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel sought to bury once and for all the idea of common euro zone bonds on Tuesday, saying Europe would not share total debt liability "as long as I live", as the bloc’s big four finance ministers met to narrow differences on how to solve a worsening debt crisis.
Two days before a crucial European Union summit, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy released a seven-page report on closer fiscal and banking union envisaging a euro zone treasury that would issue common debt in the medium term.
Merkel immediately stamped on the idea of mutualising debt – favored by France, Italy and Spain – at a meeting of lawmakers from her Free Democratic coalition partners in Berlin, according to people who attended the closed-door session.
"I don’t see total debt liability as long as I live," she was quoted as saying, a day after branding the idea of euro bonds "economically wrong and counterproductive".
However Germany, the EU’s biggest economy and paymaster, appeared ready to budge on using the euro zone’s rescue funds more flexibly to help banks and reassure investors spooked by an increased risk of facing write-downs on government bonds.
More…
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