Monday, June 18, 2012


As Italy Hints Of Subordination, Did Rome Just Request A "Semi" Bailout?

That Italy is now at most days away from technical insolvency is not news: after all we reported on just this a week ago, citing not some fringe lunatics but Bloomberg economist David Powell who said that "Italy would probably be forced into receiving a bailout if it were to face another two weeks like the last seven days." This was a week ago... so one more week left, and things have not only not gotten better, they have gotten much worse. Which is why we were not very surprised to read the following just released news from Reuters: "Italy will push this week at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers for a semi-automatic mechanism involving the European Central Bank or the permanent bailout fund ESM to reduce spreads of euro zone bonds over Germany, Italy's European Affairs Minister Enzo Moavero said on Monday." Having done this for a while, we can tell Italy what the bond market, having perused the above sentence, just read: "semi-bailout." Because if Italy is implicitly demanding assistance from the ECB, and the Spanish bailout vehicle, the ESM, then things are about to hit the country with the €1.25 trillion in debt. It is all downhill from there. Oh, and here is what the bond market reads when they see ESM: "not so semi-subordination." Because if in Europe the idiotic plan to avoid a bank run is to announce preparations for one, followed by furious back pedaling, it is only logical (and we use the term loosely) that an attempt to avert a bailout will be pursued by requesting a semi version. Instead, that action always and only leads to one thing: waving the sellers right in.

 

What Do FX And Bond Traders Know That Stocks Don't (Again)?

Treasury yields disconnected (lower) late last week from the ebullience of stocks and while EURUSD managed to spike on the Greek hope (in a perfect reflection of last week's Spanish bailout market reaction), it is now also disconnecting (lower) from equity exuberance in the US (having totally round-tripped from its opening spike lows on the 1st exit polls last night). European stocks are ending near their lows, credit markets notably underperforming (in another almost perfect echo of last week's early market reaction), and while Spanish sovereign bonds are performing the worst, the rest of Europe is also pulling wider in spread and higher in yield. Swiss 2Y rates are down 3bps more at 34bps (and 5Y rates are down 2bps to -3bps - lowest ever on record!). Italian and Spanish stock indices are down over 3% led by financials (which leaves them both lower from pre-Spanish bailout), with only the Swiss and German indices managing modest gains on the day.





The Austerity Wonderfulness Of 'Great Success Story Latvia'

Everything you need to know about the success of austerity, but were afraid to ask. In a little under 90 seconds, this Borat-inspired cartoon explains "Why so many central bankers, politicians, and pundits admiring 'austerity wonderfulness'?" The answer, perhaps tongue-in-cheek, is because of "Great Latvia Success Story".






The Welfare Kings Of Europe


In spite of the fact that 85% of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone, I was reasonably confident that Greeks would support Syriza to a first-place finish, and elect a new government willing to play chicken with the Germans. However Greeks — predominantly the elderly — rejected change (and possible imminent Drachmatization) in favour of the fundamentally broken status quo. But although Syriza finished second, the anti-bailout parties still commanded a majority of the votes.  And New Democracy may still face a lot of trouble building a coalition to try to keep Greece in the bailout, and in the Euro . There has long been a rumour that Tsipras wanted to lose, so as to (rightly) blame the coming crush on the status quo parties. What fewer of us counted on was that the status quo parties wouldn’t want to win the election either. The pro-bailout socialists Pasok have thrown a monkey wrench into coalition-building by claiming they won’t take part in any coalition that doesn’t also include Syriza. This seems rational; when the tsunami hits, all parties in government will surely take a lot of long-term political damage. Pasok have already been marginalised by the younger and fierier Syriza, and Pasok presiding over an economic collapse (for that is undoubtedly what Greece now faces) would surely have driven Pasok into an abyss. The economy is such a poisoned chalice that parties seem willing to fight to keep themselves out of power.





Deja Vu: Pasok Is Warming Up To Coalition With Only New Democracy

One of the biggest caveats from yesterday's Greek election result was that Pasok announced it would only participate in a broad coalition government that includes Syriza. Obviously Syriza promptly turned down the offer, which has now put the ball back in the court of the Pasok leader - Venizeloz. Being a career politicians, and knowing quite well what the final outcome of the Greek fiasco would be, it was only a matter of time before the former minister of defense, finance, and yes, sport, would flip flop, and hint that a government of just ND and Pasok would also work, as the alternative is just too harsh to even consider. In other words, we may shortly get a repeat of the precisely same leadership that brought Greece to 23% unemployment and a completely destroyed financial and economic system, with Veni back in the role of finance minister once again.


 


Spain May Not Be Uganda, But Germany Is Chile

While we discussed the definitive new world geography last week, it appears the CDS market has decided to add a new parallel for us, Germany is now Chile (in terms of 10Y restructuring and devaluation risk). As a reminder, Germany's credit risk has risen by almost 50% in the last 3 months to record highs, and has converged higher towards Europe's GDP-weighted average sovereign risk in the last 2-3 weeks.




What I See Happening Is More And More Bailouts

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 36 minutes ago
What I see happening is more and more bailouts, higher and higher and higher debt. We’re going to have a worse recession next year and 2014 because the debt is high. ... In 2007 and 2008, the recession was worse because the debt was higher; 2013 and 2014, the debt is up to the ceiling. The recession is going to be worse. This is not going to be fun. - *in CNBC * *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and... more » 



 

Google: Government Censorship Requests 'Alarming'

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
History has shown us time after time that the greatest threat to a society, culture, and personal freedoms are internal rather than external. As the sovereign debt crisis evolves, intensifies, and spreads old-fashioned book burnings will be replaced with electronic censorship, kills switches, permitting for assembly. Let’s hope that a nation forged by a shot heard around the world doesn’t end... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]


Italy's Monti raises specter of crisis amid protests

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
Austerity to save whom? A test of the high volume November low is inevitable. Chart: Italian Treas Bond ETN Headline: Italy's Monti raises specter of crisis amid protests (Reuters) - Italy is again flirting with economic disaster, Prime Minister Mario Monti said, as crowds massed in sporadically violent protest at his austerity programme a day ahead of an election in Greece... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]




Confirmed: Ron Paul Will Not Endorse Mitt Romney – Listen Why!





Are You Kidding? SEC Now to Supervise US Ratings Agencies

by The Daily Bell:
SEC taps Thomas J. Butler, Wall Street veteran, to oversee ratings agencies … Consumer advocacy groups voiced concern over the appointment Friday of a Wall Street veteran to be the chief overseer of credit-rating agencies, which were found by two government inquiries to have been major causes of the 2008 financial crisis. – McClatchy Newspapers
Dominant Social Theme: OK, great … let’s get those ratings agencies under control.
Free-Market Analysis: The SEC couldn’t regulate a paper bag. It was set up in the 1930s by global elites to give the appearance of a Wall Street cop without providing the reality.
It’s part of Washington’s larger dysfunction and is only notable because of its brief, which is to approve the various kinds of paperwork filed by Wall Street firms to inform the “public” of their deals.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com




“This Mad Hatter’s Tea Party Doesn’t Change ANYTHING” – Greek Tragedy Will Continue

from RussiaToday:

Greece’s victorious New Democracy party is planning to renegotiate the current austerity package with the EU, which second-placed Syriza wants to scrap altogether. Political risk consultant John Hulsman says whatever Greece does, the calm before the next storm will not last long.



Europe Gets Emerging Market Crisis Ultimatum as G-20 Meet

By Theophilos Argitis and Tony Czuczka, Bloomberg:
Europe’s financial crisis deepened and enveloped Spain, raising pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel at a meeting of world leaders to shift her stance on shielding the global economy.
Group of 20 chiefs are meeting at a two-day summit in Mexico today as Spanish borrowing costs soared to a euro-era record. With elections in Greece failing to damp the threat of contagion, policy makers are deliberating ways to stimulate the world economy if necessary, a Canadian official said. Merkel,
who last week criticized U.S. debt levels, said June 15 she’ll press the G-20 to hold to prudent government spending.
“It’s not a complete beating up session, but Germany is the recipient of fairly caustic criticism from other members of the G-20,” Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING Bank NV in London, said by telephone. “The pressure will be on Germany to give more ground and behind closed doors Merkel may well be more accommodative. There is ground for the euro zone to move, but just what it does depends on how much Germany digs its heels in.”
Read More @ Bloomberg




Debt crisis: Market rally falters following Greek vote as concerns over Spain persist

from Rachel Cooper & agencies, The Telegraph:
Markets initially bounced on Monday morning after Greece’s election eased fears that the single currency would break up, but the rally proved short-lived amid persistent uncertainty over the global economy and other eurozone countries.
A narrow win for Greece’s pro-bailout party, New Democracy, initially spurred markets higher on hopes that the embattled country has bought more time to remain in the euro. Equities across Europe ticked higher and the euro strengthened, at point touching a one-month high of $1.2748. Riskier commodities, such as crude oil and copper, also rose.
Read More @ telegraph.com


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How Washington Works, for Dummies

from TruthNeverTold :



Dress Rehearsal for a Mideast War?

Patrick J. Buchanan, Lew Rockwell.com:
“History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” said Mark Twain.
Observing the uprising in Syria, the atrocities, the intervention by rival powers, it all calls to mind the Great Rehearsal for World War II, the Spanish Civil War.
The war began in 1936 with an uprising in Morocco of Spanish Nationalists against a Madrid regime seen as anti-Catholic, Marxist and Trotskyite. Vladimir Lenin had predicted that Spain would be the second Soviet republic in Europe.
The war would last three years, with Joseph Stalin providing aid to the regime, Benito Mussolini sending troops to fight on the side of Gen. Francisco Franco and Adolf Hitler sending his Condor Legion. The bombing of Guernica by the Legion, commemorated in the famous Picasso painting of that name, would be regarded as the great war crime of the conflict.
Read More @ LewRockwell.com





BTFD...

Gold slips following Greek election

by Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch:
Gold futures retreated during Asian trading hours Monday, as a Greek election victory for pro-euro forces appeared to dampen the metal’s safe-haven demand.
August gold futures GCQ2 -0.34% slipped 0.2% to 1,624.50 an ounce, down from their $1,628.10 settlement Friday on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The losses came on the heels of a strong week for gold futures, in which the benchmark contract rose 2.3% amid hopes for fresh easing from the world’s major central banks. While concerns about a possible Greek exit from the euro zone had also helped support gold the previous week, those concerns eased somewhat after the New Democracy party, which supports measures to keep the euro, won a victory in Sunday’s election.
Read More @ MarketWatch




Greek Voters Decide to Accept Austerity

by Soren Dreier, Zen-Haven:
The Greek election produced a knife-edge result yesterday, with the establishment parties snatching victory in a narrow race, according to official projections.
“The Greek people voted today to stay on the European course and remain in the eurozone … there will be no more adventures, Greece’s place in Europe will not be put in doubt,” said the leader of New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, who is likely to become the new Prime Minister.
The result may enable it to form a coalition government but it is likely to face strong opposition inside and outside parliament.
The projections showed the conservative New Democracy party securing 29.7 per cent of the vote. Its nearest rival, the radical-left Syriza, was only just behind on 26.9 per cent. New Democracy is likely to form a coalition with the socialist Pasok party, which was in government until late last year and received 12.3 per cent of the vote, according to the official projections after 97 per cent of the ballots had been counted.
If the results are confirmed, New Democracy is likely to have about 129 parliamentary seats, Syriza would have 71 and Pasok 33.
Read More @ zen-haven.dk




One on One with Karl Denninger

by Greg Hunter, USAWatchdog:


Forget about the outcome of the Greek elections. The only thing that matters, according to Karl Denninger of Market-ticker.org, is math. Denninger thinks, “The powers that be are lying about the solvency of institutions and this is doomed to fail.”
He still thinks the financial crisis “detonates before the election,” and “layoff numbers start going back up.” If the U.S. isn’t careful, we could be looking at a sudden 50% to 75% cut in the federal budget. Greg Hunter goes one on one with Karl Denninger.
Read More @ USAWatchdog.com




Aftermath of Greek Vote Seems Predictable

by Rick Ackerman, Rick Ackerman.com:
As the weekend approached, the outcome of Sunday’s election in Greece was being touted by the news media as “a cliffhanger,” a “Lehman moment, and “too close to call.” But does anyone actually believe the ultimate outcome is in doubt? The drumbeat reminds us of the sensationalized news coverage that froths up every time America’s do-nothing Congress approaches a budget deadline. Greeks have been rioting in the streets for the better part of a year, and so it seems likely that even if they vote to stay in the EU, they will struggle in vain to fulfill the terms of future bailouts. Under the circumstances, political sentiment will continue to shift left, ultimately giving the radical Syriza party effective control of the nation’s political and economic machinery. A Marxist takeover of a deadbeat nation that owes everyone would be bad news for Europe, but it is predictable that stock markets around the world will turn riotously bullish no matter what the outcome. Bad news is good news on Wall Street these days, and good news — i.e., a vote on Sunday to retain the status quo — would be even better.
Read More @ RickAckerman.com



Cheap Stocks in Europe – U.S. Government Bond Bubble to Burst, Faber Says

from DoomBoomGloom:




U.S. Market Alert: Greek Rally Fail as Doom is still Game On

Whew! That was close. Everyone thought that the Greeks would go hard line Marxist and instead continued with their tradition of electing a lightweight Marxist so the market futures shot up last night because nothing was solved and the economy of Greece still sucks.
Then the futures minions woke up this morning and remembered that Spain was a much larger problem and the “bailout” there was a joke.
Today will be a most interesting trading day and it would appear that for once reality will determine the market’s future instead of hopium and bullcrap.
Read More @ John Galt FLA




Gold Falls Then Ticks Higher – Spain and Italy 10 Year Over 7% and 6%

from GoldCore:
Gold took a tumble for the first time in 7 sessions in Asia as Antonis Samaras, leader of the Greece’s New Democracy Party (pro-bailout) was victorious. Today, Samaras plans to form a coalition with other parties backing the bailout – meaning that Greece’s future in the euro is secure – for now.
Gold’s dip in Asia was thought to be due to profit taking and increased risk appetite after the Greek election. However, this increase in risk appetite has been quite short lived with Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds again coming under pressure resulting in record Spanish yields over 7.13% and Italian 10 year over 6% again.
Initial gains in equity markets have subsided and the lessening of risk appetite is seeing gold supported.
Greece’s exit from the Eurozone is no longer a short term risk however it remains a real risk as does the risk of financial contagion in the Eurozone due to insolvent banks in Spain, Italy and France.
Read More @ goldcore.com




Five Days Since The Spanish “Bailout”: You Are Here

from Zero Hedge:
With few (if any) natural buyers of Spanish debt (especially given the lack of CDS-cash basis now), Spanish bonds continue to crumble lower in price and higher in yield/spread. For the first time ever, 10Y Spanish bond yields have passed 575bps over Bunds – currently trading at 7.15% yield. Since the post-banking-bailout open, Spanish bond spreads have soared a remarkable 114bps and whether this is seen as the fulcrum security or Italian bonds (which are also deteriorating rapidly this morning), it would appear that just as Spiegel reports today from the G-20, via a senior EU official: “If Germany Doesn’t Make A Move, Europe Is Dead”.
Read More @ Zero Hedge.com




The Real Scoop on Public Service Unions – Part I

by Tibor Machan, The Daily Bell:
In the wake of Governor Scott Walker’s survival of a recall vote, initiated by friends of Wisconsin’s public service unions, let’s explore again just why such unions are perverse. Bona fide labor unions work within a free-market system where firms compete for customers who are normally able to switch from sellers of wares and services if they want to. Public works are noncompetitive, however. Workers who belong to public unions conduct their labor negotiations without their employers facing any competitors. The USPS, for example, has a monopoly over first class mail delivery; teachers at public schools are working for monopolistic employers – students must attend school and the funds are confiscated through taxation and not obtained through voluntary exchange. So as the saying goes, public workers have the taxpayers over a barrel – there are no alternatives and in most cases one cannot refuse to deal with these workers.
So public workers unions are not genuine free-market agents. As such they are able to have their terms met by the taxpaying public basically at the point of a gun. The public must deal with these workers; otherwise they face legal sanctions. There is nowhere else to go apart from moving out of the state to another where the same situation obtains, where once again public unions possess monopoly powers and customers have nowhere else they can turn to get a different deal or to avoid dealing altogether.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com




The Federal Reserve Cartel

by Jacque Fresco, Hang The Bankers:
The Four Horsemen of Banking, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo,
own the Four Horsemen of Oil, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch/Shell, BP, Chevron Texaco,
..in tandem with, Deutsche Bank, BNP (Banque Nationale de Paris), Barclays, other European old money behemoths.
But their monopoly over the global economy does not end at the edge of the oil patch. According to company 10K filings to the SEC, the Four Horsemen of Banking are among the top ten stock holders of virtually every Fortune 500 corporation.[1]
So who then are the stockholders in these money center banks?
This information is guarded much more closely. My queries to bank regulatory agencies regarding stock ownership in the top 25 US bank holding companies were given Freedom of Information Act status, before being denied on “national security” grounds. This is rather ironic, since many of the bank’s stockholders reside in Europe.
Read More @ HangTheBankers.com


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